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Angelsjunky

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Everything posted by Angelsjunky

  1. A "replacement player" is an abtraction for a player that is easy for any team to come by - a minor league journeyman. Think Robb Quinlan, Bobby Wilson, Paul McAnulty, etc...basically AAA filler. The reason a replacement player is used rather than, say, an average player (a replacement player is below an average regular) is that average regulars aren't always easy to come by, while a replacement player is. So WAR basically says "This is how good this player is relative to someone we could easily replace him with if we had to." That said, I don't think you can say that if a player has a 5 WAR then he adds five more wins to the team than a replacement player would have. One thing it doesn't include is "collateral damage" - how much that player effects the play of other players. A player like Mike Trout makes the whole team better by being a sparkplug. Or a player like Miguel Cabrera isn't worth "only" 7 wins more than Paul McAnulty simply because of his presence at the plate, and the fear he instills in pitchers. I agree with those that say that WAR, or any stat, cannot possibly be truly definitive. But I disagree with the implication that it is therefore meaningless or without utility. WAR is a very useful tool. It just isn't the end-all, be-all.
  2. According to Bob Ryan. Discuss.
  3. 4142-4152 - that's 10 games. Let's see - there are 27 games in April, so for the Angels to get to .500 they'd have to go 19-8. Probably not going to happen. Sometime in May probably.
  4. But, but, but Republicans say that we should lower taxes for the rich and give them tax exemptions for charities! That works, right?
  5. I have a feeling that Angels fans the nation over are going to be trading away overly ridiculous packages for Trout (like Braun & Kershaw - lol), but angelstilldeath isn't one of them.
  6. Right here. Cowart at #42, no other Angels make the list. Ouch, but not surprising.
  7. ''He's an interesting guy,'' Angels manager Mike Scioscia said. ''The life on his ball was terrific, and I think that's the first step. The ball was coming out well, and he has good command when he's on.'' There it is. Cy Young Award.
  8. Albert Pujols will have his best year as an Angel. It won't be vintage Pujols, but it will be very, very good - his best since 2010. I'm thinking something akin to .300+, an OPS around .950 and around 35 HR. Mark Trumbo will have his best season yet, finding a happy medium between his first and second half last year. How does .270/.330/.550 with 35 HR sound? Mike Trout will take a step back, but not by much. He'll still hit around .300 with a .900 OPS, plus 25-30 HR and 45+ SB. Another 8+ WAR season, in other words. Pujols, Trumbo, Trout, and Hamilton will hit 120+ HR between them, averaging 30 HR a piece - although only Pujols and Trumbo will surpass 30. My prediction: 34, 33, 28, 29 = 124. "Three for 200" - Hank Conger, Luis Jimenez, and Kole Calhoun will all get more playing time than expected, with 200+ PA each. The Tommy Field Era Beginneth - by mid-season Tommy Field will win out over Andrew Romine and Bill Hall as Scioscia's preferred utility infielder. Vernon Wells will be retired before he retires. Garret Richards and CJ Cron will be delt before the trading deadline.
  9. He's very similar to Polanco. Polanco hit .331 at age 29 and .341 at age 31. The Angels have Howie signed through his age 31 season, so we can hope he's more like Polanco going forward.
  10. Its hard to teach an old dog new tricks. Howie is almost 30 and I have a hard time imagining that he's going to become an on-base machine all of a sudden. I think best case scenario is that he becomes a bit more selective, meaning 40 walks a year rather than 25-30. If he can walk 40 times next year we'll see a .300+ BA, imo.
  11. Top 10? Sure. Howie was 22nd in the AL and a .300 BA gets you close to the top 10 - David Murphy was 10th last year, hitting .304.
  12. Love it, Chuck. It is much easier to format and, as far as I can tell, doesn't have the kinks that the other forum had. Well done.
  13. Let me point a couple things out: 1) Howie turns 30 in July. It is quite rare that a player turning 30 shows us something new or has a significant breakthrough. It happens, its just rare. 2) Howie's BA has been very consistent over the last four years - ranging from .279 to .291, all below his career average of .292. 3) While Howie's recent BAs have been lower than his earlier ones, they're still about the same relative to league average. Check this out: Howie's BA relative to AL Average 2006: +10 2007: +50 2008: +36 2009: +25 2010: +23 2011: +36 2012: +40 So as you can see, he dipped down in 2009-10, but the last couple years has been on the rise and his .287 BA in 2012 was actually the highest relative to league average since 2007 when he hit .322. So could Howie have a breakout year in 2013? Of course its possible. But even if he hits .315 with 20 HR, I don't know if it will as much be a breakout as a career year. And, in the end, we need to stop being disappointed every year because what we're seeing is probably what we'll continue to see: An above average (2-3 WAR) second baseman, no more or less.
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