Angelsjunky

Is that a gay thing they're doing up in Seattle?

I maintain that you give Scioscia a couple months - through May - and Dipoto the whole year. If the Angels aren't above .500 by the end of May then you show Scioscia the door. If the the Angels don't at least compete for the postseason, Dipoto gets canned. But I also still think that the Angels are going to figure this out and be above .500 in early May and get really hot in June.

Yes, it is. Bank on it.

Sure, we can do an April progress report.

I thought it was pretty good. It reinforces my growing fear that the Angels aren't run by a combination of head and heart, but all head. I'm worried that this is a team that won't be able to develop the chemistry needed to win it all.

I don't know, Ocho - I hear and agree with you but think it is more like Arte says to Jerry: "Do what it takes to win - you have X money to play with." I guess the question that Jerry is going to be second-guessing is whether he should have spent the money on Greinke or Hamilton, or perhaps saved some money and gone after Anibal Sanchez and Edwin Jackson. There's no way to make only good moves, but the key is how it all combines. And we'll just have to see how it all turns out.

Chuck, don't blame me for the Angels sucking. As for the question, who knows. It will be fun to watch both. I'd guess that Harper will be a better pure hitter, with a higher OBP and SLG, but that Trout will be a better defensive player and baserunner and perhaps overall similar in value.

Chuck, teachers give progress reports. Maybe "Grade Report" sounds too final. Consider this a progress report. And yes, you can give progress reports.

Thanks mtangelsfan and HaloMagic! Kind words in unkind times (for Angels fans, at least). mt, interesting thought about this team being unexciting. It feels like an all-head, no-heart team. Dipoto seems to get the numbers but might not get the importance of chemistry and the "X-Factor" - which is what Torii brought. Regardless, it will be interesting to see how it plays out. If the Angels get it together and start winning games then our concern was all for naught and we'll all be happy. But if not, it will be interesting to see what happens on the management level.

Look, we're all upset about how the season has gone so far. And we must remember that two things are true at once: 1) It IS still early; there are 152 games to be played. 2) There are some serious red flags to be concerned about, both in terms of individual players and management. I'm not making any final conclusions and have been careful about expressing both of the points above. The point of this thread is not to give Dipoto a final grade, but more as a progress report. Let's revisit in 10 more games, then after 40, etc.

Jeff, you're such a tease. But thanks for letting us know.

You guys are missing the point or simply not reading what I actually write. The point is to compare results thus far, and then over the course of the year - to see how Dipoto's transactions actually turn out. It is not to make a conclusion now, 10 games into the year, which I've said multiple times in this thread. In other words, how do Dipoto's moves look after 10, 20, 40, 80, 120, 160 games? A running tally, if you will. And this includes direct comparisons between the players he got rid of and those he brought in.

I've noticed that a lot of folks had mild expectations for this year - .500 or so. But the thing is, once the Angels signed Hamilton they said "We're trying to win it all now." Or, at least, in the next year or two. This team wasn't built to get by until the farm builds up around Trout. It was built to win now. The problem, though, is that Dipoto might have made bad gambles on the starters. And of course he also seemed to assume that Jered Weaver would continue as a #1 and CJ Wilson would at least find his #2 fom. After only ten games the jury is still out, but things aren't looking good so far. I honestly think that if the Angels haven't turned things around by the All-Star break, Mike Scioscia should be fired. If they don't make the playoffs--or at least come close--I think Dipoto needs to go too. Two years in a row of bad, and very expensive, gambles that fail and you have to lose your job. But that's all conjecture at this point. I'm still hopeful the Angels will turn this around and have a good year.

Maybe because he should know how many outs there are?

I didn't say that, gotbeer. I fully expect Hamilton to have a much better year than Wells. The point of this thread is to get an OBJECTIVE view as to how Jerry Dipoto's moves have actually worked out - based on actual numbers. That is, in the end, the only way we can judge his performance. So far its not looking good, but as I said it is only 10 games into the season. I'd like to update this every ten games or so to keep track.

Dipoto's desperate.

Let's take a look at the players Dipoto got rid of and who he replaced them with. As you know, Dipoto basically swapped Vernon Wells for Josh Hamilton, Greinke, Haren and Santana for Vargas, Blanton, and Hanson, and Walden for Madson. It isn't a direct swap but that's how the team has been changed up - and I'm not looking at some of the minor moves like Izturis, Lowe, Burnett, etc. How do Dipoto's offseason moves look after 10 games? WELLS vs. HAMILTON Wells - .310/.412/.621, 2 HR Hamilton - .179/.261/.231, 0 HR STARTING PITCHERS Zack Greinke - 1.59 ERA, 1-10 BB-K in 11.1 IP Dan Haren - 9.00 ERA, 0-10 BB-K in 9 IP Ervin Santana - 3.21 ERA, 2-15 BB-K in 14 IP Jordan Walden - 2.25 ERA, 0-4 BB-K in 4 IP Jason Vargas - 4.76 ERA, 5-8 BB-K in 11.1 IP Joe Blanton - 9.00 ERA, 3-4 BB-K in 10 IP Tommy Hanson - 6.55 ERA, 2-6 BB-K in 11 IP Madson - NA So far Dipoto's moves look terrible. With the lone exception of Dan Haren, all the players he traded, let go of, or didn't re-sign are thriving and none of the players he's brought in are doing well. Obviously the usual "its early" caveat applies, but early on Dipoto is looking less like a JeDi and more like a JeDuh (or JeDud).

So you were xenophobic as such a young age? Or should we call it canuckophobic? Getting to 6-14 is easy enough: that's 4-6 over the next ten games. I'm not saying they're going to win the WS, just that there is a precedent for not only slow starts but a team even starting 2-8. The 2003 Marlins were 42-42 and only got above .500 for good on July 1, after which they went 49-29.

...in case you're wondering, was the 1992 Toronto Blue Jays who were actually quite mediocre until they caught fire in June, winning their first 15 games of the month and going 22-6 for the month. It is also interesting to note that very few World Series champions end up starting the year red-hot. Here are every World Series champion team from that '92 Blue Jays team to the present, with their record through 10, 20, and 40 games: 2012 – Giants: 4-6 /10-10 / 21-19 2011 – Cardinals: 4-6 / 11-9 /22-18 2010 – Giants: 7-3 /12-8 /22-18 2009 – Yankees: 5-5 /10-10 / 23-17 2008 – Phillies: 4-6 /10-10 / 22-18 2007 – Red Sox: 6-4 / 13-7 / 28-12 2006 – Cardinals: 5-5 / 13-7 / 25-15 2005 – White Sox: 7-3 / 16-4 / 28-12 2004 – Red Sox: 6-4 / 14-6 / 24-16 2003 – Marlins: 4-6 / 9-11 / 18-22 2002 – Angels: 3-7 / 6-14 / 23-17 2001 – Diamondbacks: 4-6 / 10-10 / 22-18 2000 – Yankees: 7-3 / 13-7 / 24-16 1999 – Yankees: 7-3 / 14-6 / 23-17 1998 – Yankees: 6-4 / 15-5 / 31-9 1997 – Marlins: 8-2 / 11-9 / 24-16 1996 – Yankees: 6-4 / 11-9/ 24-16 1995 – Braves: 7-3 / 11-9 / 23-17 1993 – Blue Jays: 6-4 / 12-8 / 21-19 1992 – Blue Jays: 2-8 / 9-11 / 19-21 Notice that of those 20 teams, 7 were below .500 after 10 games and only 4 of 20 were 10 games or more above .500 after 40 games. I haven't looked into it further, but it may be that World Series champions tend to do better later in the year than earlier (although the 2000 are at least one obvious exception: they went 3-15 over their last 18 games, but then managed to go 11-5 in the postseason to win their third WS in a row). Obviously starting 2-8 isn't good, but it isn't quite "season over." Baseball is a game of cycles - every team struggles.

You can't really be this simplistic?

Its too soon to say just about anything, but from what we've seen I'll go on record with the following predictions: - Howie Kendrick is going to have a career year, even better than 2011. I'm thinking he'll hit around .300/.350/.480 with 15-20 HR. - Mike Trout won't hit .300. I hope he does but I see him hitting more in the .290s. Until he cuts down on those strikeouts - which I think he will - he'll have a hard time breaking .300. And yes, I do think he's going to regress significantly this year and then jump forward again next. I think something around a 290 BA, an OPS in the range of .850-.900 and about 25 HR and 40 SB. Still very, very good - 7 WAR, maybe. - Albert Pujols is back. Maybe not 2010 back, but he'll have his best year since then. Look at the 9 walks - that's a great sign. How about .300/.370/.580 with 35 HR? - Hank Conger will end up with more PA than Chris Iannetta. Call it a hunch due both to Iannetta' injury history and my feeling that Hank is going to hammer the ball and Iannetta will eventually get injured, or at least be moderated to prevent injury. - Garret Richards is going to keep his rotation spot. OK, we haven't seen one start yet but I think he's going to surprise and win a starting job, even when Weaver gets back. Most likely rotation demotion would be Blanton. I'll even go so far as to say that Richards will be to 2013 what Lackey was to 2002: a young player that comes in and stabilizes the rotation. But unlike Lackey, I think Richards won't struggle for the next couple years but solidify his place as the Angels' #3 starter. - Josh Hamilton is about to catch fire. There's been signs of it the last couple games, but he's going to start destroying the ball soon. Very soon. - The Angels are about to catch fire. Well, not really but they're about to turn this ship around. I went on record predicting a 13-14 April and despite the fact that they'll need to go 11-7 the rest of the way and it seems like 11-16 or 10-17 is more likely, I'm sticking with it. - The bullpen will wobble but gradually stabilize and even become very good. - The Angels will win 93 games and earn a wildcard berth. Come on folks, let's get excited here! Its April baseball!!!!!!!

I wouldn't say by far - Howie's been hitting very well. But the point is, his improved plate discipline bodes well for a resurgence.

It is seemingly small but potentially huge in impact: Albert Pujols has 9 walks in 9 games, a 22.0% walk rate. Check out the trend over the last few years: 2009: 180 wRC+, 16.4% 2010: 164 OPS+, 14.7% 2011: 146 wRC+, 9.4% 2012: 132 wRC+, 7.8% 2013: 170 wRC+, 22.0% (wRC+ is Fangraphs' more sophisticated version of OPS+; 100 is average, 120 good, 150+ great). Now obviously he won't keep walking at that pace, but note that last year he didn't draw his 9th walk until his 41st game - and we all know how he did then. A lot of analysts have pointed to the decline of his plate discipline and the clear correlation to his overall hitting. If Albert has truly figured this out then we might see his best year since 2010...which would be a lot better than many of us expected (or feared). Even if he gets back to "only" a 150 wRC+ it will be huge for this club. Watch the walk rate. I think it will be one of the best indicators of what sort of season Albert will have, and whether we're getting something closer to vintage 2010 and before Pujols or the 2011-12 diminished version.

Gene Mauch.

At only 9 games into the season you've got to let them try to play out of this funk. It isn't time to try to "fix" anything.