Angelsjunky

I thought this was going to be about Josh Hamilton or Mike Scioscia and that I'd missed the development of an awesome nickname.

Trout's last four games, since his 1-8 performance during the long game: 17 PA: .400/.471/1.000, 8 RBI, 4 Runs 5 of his 6 hits have been for extra bases, including 2 triples and 2 home runs and, best of all, he's only struck out twice. Yeah, he's been playing pretty well.

Right. I think the fact that his "underwhelming start" is still on a 7 WAR pace speaks to just how great he is.

I don't know why this pleases me, but Trout's WAR is now up to 1.3 - tied with Bryce Harper. Compare their raw stats: Harper: .320/.412/.660, 9 HR, 1 SB Trout: .270/.341/.492, 4 HR, 4 SB The difference? Well its all in the defense (Fld, or Fielding Runs) and baserunning (BsR, or Baserunning runs): Harper: -1.8 Fld, -0.9 BsR Trout: 2.4 Fld, 1.9 BsR Now consider that Trout is more likely to improve his triple-slash numbers; I'm guessing he ends up with something north of .290+/.370+/.500+, around 25 HR and 40 SB. Right now he's on pace for a 7+ fWAR; I see no reason with those improvements he can't end with 8+. And Harper? Obviously he's the real deal and I think is going to be mashing the ball like no other for the next decade, but I still don't expect a 1.072 OPS all year. Maybe .950? He should also improve his Fld and BsR, so I think can continue his overall 7+ fWAR pace. The bottom line is that it could be a dog-fight, but I'd place my money on Trout. He's just go more room to improve.

Plus he's got a really small strike zone so he'll walk (or roll) most of the time.

Ted Williams' head.

Shuck's the new Reggie Willits.

I agree, Torridd. Hanson's overall results are somewhat encouraging in that his last two starts have been pretty good - 2 ER in 12 IP - I'm a bit worried by the fact that it seems his in-game performance is rather underwhelming; those 2 ER seem a bit lucky. That said, 3 of his 4 starts have been "quality" so I think we can at least expect league average performance, maybe better. Vargas is similar - I expect a league average pitcher. Blanton should be his usual mediocre self and I have a feeling that Richards will be the new Ervin Santana - a #1-2 pitcher in one game, an average pitcher the next, and then a blowout the next. Maybe he'll average out to be yet another...well, average pitcher. Now of course 3-4 average starters is fine if your #1 and #2 starters are really good. But there are problems there, too - Wilson looks like an above average starter at best, and who knows how Weaver will come back, if he'll regain his velocity. To put all that together, there's a solid chance that the Angels will be left with 5-7 starters all around league average, maybe some a bit above and one or two a bit below. I can't see them winning more than 80-85 games with a rotation like that, and then only if the offense is great. Think 2000....although I don't think the pitching will be that bad (or the hitting that good). Looking at the rotation I think the best hope is that A) Weaver comes back strong, B ) Wilson grows a pair, C) Hanson continues to improve, and D) Vargas, Blanton, and Richards are all around average. If all that occurs, AND 1) Hamilton stops swinging at crap, 2) Trout begins to resemble something close to the player he was last year, and 3) Pujols stops playing like he's 40, then we've got a playoff team. But those are a lot of "ifs."

I'm not sure what you're saying "no" too, but that's not unusual. The cumulative numbers are more worrisome because they're over a longer period of time. Since June 1 of last year, Josh Hamilton has basically been Steve Balboni or Tony Armas, yet he's being paid to be Miguel Cabrera. He doesn't need to be Miggy to help the team and come close to earning his contract, but he does need to be better than Balboni or Armas. The question, then, is why doesn't he stop chasing bad pitches? I mean isn't it really this simple: Jim Eppard: Josh, you're chasing everything - you need to be more selective. Josh Hamilton: I don't believe you - this is what I've always done. Eppard: Not quite. Here, watch some tape. Hamilton (after watching tape): OK, you're right. I need to reign in the flailing. Why isn't that happening? Is Hamilton too prideful? Just plain stupid? Has he lost his batting eye and pitch recognition? Or is he really that undisciplined that he can't help himself from swinging at everything?

This paints a different picture and worries me. Maybe Texas knew something others didn't, or the Angels willfully ignored? I just have a hard time believing that he can't turn it around. I don't every expect another 2010, but I would think he's capable of averaging .280-.290 and 30 HR for the next few years. The big question for me is what happened in June of 2012? He just stopped hitting, at first with a whimper and then a thud. On the morning of June 1st he was hitting .368/.420/.764. From that point on...well, fansince79 posted the numbers. What happened in early June?

My guess for Hamilton is that he figures it out soon and then kills the ball, ending up with a pretty good May, a ridiculous June, and then up and down in July through September. He'll finish the year hitting .280+, an SLG of .500+ and 25+ HR. Not quite $25 million worth, but good enough.

Being lazy, Jim? OK, I'll do it for you: Hamilton hit .259/.323/.510 with 16 HR in 69 games in the 2nd half of last year. That said, those numbers don't tell the whole picture of his second half. He had a terrible July (.177/.253/.354) followed by an excellent August (.310/.368/.575) and a solid Sept/Oct (.245/.330/.543). Hamilton is just streaky, and it is mainly because his plate discipline sucks. If he settles down and starts taking pitches he'll start hitting. Its all up to him - the talent is still there.

So the Angels are 10-18 and every time it seems like they're starting to show glimmers of getting out of this slump, they fall back in it. Yet while it is hard imagining them playing well for an extended period of time, given the talent on the roster it is even harder to imagine them continuing to be this bad. I see three possible scenarios going forward, and none involve a final record of 58-104, their current pace. A very worst-case scenario, in my mind, is around 75 wins - which is 65-69 for the rest of the year. At best, well, there are 134 games to be played and still time to turn this ship around. The question, though, is that when they do, will it be too late? Anyhow, below are the three roads; obviously this is pure conjecture but, well, so what? More of the Same (A Bit Better, But Not Enough): They never really get it together - just kind of. Think of it this way: the Angels started the year 2-8 and have been 8-10 since.Imagine more of the same of those last 18 games, but a tad better - Weaver comes back, Hamilton, Trout and Pujols start hitting, but the pitching staff is still erratic, the bullpen volatile, and the lineup good but not as great as advertised. In this scenario they play about .500 ball for the rest of the year and finish with 75-80 wins, fighting for 3rd place with the Mariners. This could also include a "too little, too late" scenario where they figure it out in the second half, get hot and maybe make it to .500 but miss the playoffs. How It Should Have Been: They improve all around: As above, but with more stability, even some hot spells. They play at about a 90+ win pace for the rest of the year but come short of the playoffs, finishing in 3rd with 84-88 wins. Right now this seems like the most likely scenario and given the roster is probably a "too little, too late" scenario. I could even see them being the best team in baseball during the second half, but not able to make up the deficit of the first. I suppose in a best-case scenario (within this option) they could win 88 games and grab a wildcard. Pollyanna Is My Middle Name: This is the "fairy tale" version. Through adversity and a rough start, the team gels. Hamilton and Trout go insane for the last four months, Pujols is healthy, and Weaver and Wilson have a renaissance, with the rest of the rotation being stable enough to keep the high-powered offense in games. They get very hot for extended periods of time and make it to the playoffs, finishing with 90-95 wins. If that doesn't sound fairy tale enough for you, know that 95 wins would mean the Angels go 85-49, a 103-win pace, for the rest of the year...possible, but everything needs to go right. To be honest, I wouldn't be surprised if any of the above happen. I suppose I'd give a 40/50/10 spread right now.

Even if the Angels never turn it around completely, they're still not going to finish anywhere near getting the #1 draft pick. The Marlins are bad, and I mean really bad - especially with Stanton out. Look at their lineup and pitching staff - their next best hitter after Stanton is 31-year old minor league journeyman Justin Ruggiano. They're the only two players with OPS over .650 (!) - and neither is hitting all that well (both in the lower .700s).

I appreciate the words, Stradling, but I actually think that the Mona Lisa was not Leonardo da Vinci's "Mona Lisa." Yes, it is what he was best remembered for but it was not his best work. People ask why? Do I really need explain?

Orioles W, Angels L

Deja Vu

Why would St Louis and Arlington be butt hurt? They both got rid of dud players.

Pujols: .245/.333/.406, -0.2 WAR Hamilton: .214/.260/.304, -0.5 WAR And they're still owed over $300 million. But its early!

Here's the scary thing. Trout has been struggling and he's still hitting .278/.338/.478 and is on pace for about 6 fWAR. Not bad for a sub-par season.

This. Best-case scenario and Lucho develops into a .270/.750 hitter and a stop-gap until Cowart is ready. But those numbers might take a year or two to develop and by then Cowart should be up. Not sure there's much of a future for Lucho on the Angels. Maybe he or Callaspo could be part of a trade for a pitcher?

Hamilton is super streaky. He may suck for a month and then be Babe Ruth for the next. Look at it this way, if Hamilton hits .340/.400/.600 in May he'll be hitting around .270/.330/.450 by the end of the month. If those numbers seem unrealistic, he out-hit those numbers on two of six months last year and about equaled it in a third - so he's easily capable of putting together a couple months like that and bringing his numbers up.

Speaking for Bill James, adjusted projections: Mike Trout: .291/.367/.492 Albert Pujols: .290/.358/.540 Josh Hamilton: .282/.337/.501

Barring rainouts: April: 9-17 May: 15-14 (24-31) June: 17-10 (41-41) July: 16-8 (57-49) August: 19-9 (76-58) Sept: 17-11 (93-69)

I actually think Bourjos is both more trade-able and less valuable to the Angels. Less valuable because of Trout, and more trade-able because he's an elite defensive center fielder who looks like he's turning into an above average offensive player. He's a 5 WAR type of player and other teams can see that value.