Angelsjunky

Peter Bourjos is earning the "injury prone" tag.

It all depends on what you mean by "that good." I think a lot of fans overrate him and think he's a bonafide star with superstar potential - this thread seems to bear that out. If that's what you mean, I agree with you - he's not that good. But it would be easy to underrate him as well as just another average 1B/RF/DH type. As some have said he's made small improvements and isn't done getting better, I think. I wouldn't be surprised to see him have a season or two hitting .280/.900 with 35+ HR, although I think his norm will be more like .270/.850, 30-35 HR. Still, that's pretty good.

And possibly the same number of times some guy in rehab has been in and out of Lindsay Lohan.

John Lackey is actually having a bit of a comeback year.

I'm liking what Lifetime is saying here - very even-handed. We should not forget that this team does have a lot of talent; it needs work, and is probably not going to seriously contend this year (although they shouldn't be written off yet), but there's a lot to work with here and we can hope that with a fresh start and some minor to moderate moves this same team can complete in 2014. As for trading Trout, I appreciate where Hamiltown is coming from in terms of looking at all options, but I also agree that in absolutely no circumstance do you trade Trout, at least not for the next five years. If we get to early 2017 and he doesn't have a long-term contract, it might be worth a shot to see what people will offer. But his value as a generational player can't be understated - he's more valuable than any other player in baseball and has a good chance to be the best player in baseball over the next decade as well as a first ballot Hall of Famer. Just the fact that I can type those sentences with a straight face says how great he is.

Hamiltown, Trumbo and Bourjos have a lot of value as well and aren't locked to a crappy contract. Aybar and Kendrick have value and their contracts aren't "crappy," but pretty standard for league average players - and right now Kendrick is more than that. There are a few others as well, it is just that Trout is the franchise player that is absolutely untouchable. Nowani, I don't agree that the Angels are "very close to being a championship caliber team" although I do agree with you that they are closer than many think, or that their record shows. What separates them from being championship calilber? I'd say two things mainly: One, they need at least two #1-2 starters and two #3 starters. In other words, they need at least four starters who are above average, and two who are very good. Right now they have three #3 types (Weaver, Wilson, Vargas), one #4 type (Williams) and a couple #5 types (Blanton, Hanson, Richards). The best-case scenario is that Weaver re-finds his velocity somehow and Wilson continues his incremental improvements, and Richards matures into a #3 type. If all that happened the Angels would have close to the rotation they need to really compete, but I'd rather see them acquire at least one, preferably two, high ceiling arm. The second thing is that they need Hamilton and Pujols to perform better. I can't believe that Hamilton has completely lost it. I know he struggled in the second half last year but he also had some hot streaks. I think the worst case scenario is that he's simply a diminished player who will strike out more and hit for a lower average, but could still hit .270/.800+ with 30 HR...next year. Pujols actually seems to be improving, so it may be that he's now just a slow starter; either way I don't think we can expect more than what he's done the last couple years, maybe .290/.850+ with 30 HR. In neither case are those the numbers Arte's paying for but they'd be good enough, along with the rest of the lineup, to score a ton of runs. So most of the above must come from within. Unfortunately it looks like it might be too late this year to turn the ship around, but with some tweaks - 1-2 quality starters - they could complete. The free agent market for next year looks sparse so it might have to come through trade.

I started writing this in the Dipoto "One bad streak" thread but decided that was getting to long and we should start another conversation. One discussion in that thread was whether or not the Angels should rebuild or try to contend and rebuild (or "retool") at the same time. Obviously it is easier to do one or the other, but I think the Angels have to try to do both at the same time (contend and rebuild). They don't have the movable parts to do a complete rebuild - or rather they do, but they'd still be stuck with the big contacts - Pujols and Hamilton. So any rebuild will involve keeping Pujols, Hamilton, and Trout. The Angels could trade almost everyone else but that would mean looking at 2017-18 or beyond for contention. Trout is a free agent in 2018, as is Hamilton, and Pujols will be in his seventh year of his contract. What sort of message does that send to Trout if you essentially say the team is going to suck until you're ready to be a free agent? Do you think he'd be willing to sign that long-term contract? Also, the Angels would basically be saying that they're giving up on the Hamilton and Pujols contracts as Hamilton would be gone by the time the Angels contend, and Pujols would be in his late 30s. They've invested too much money in these two players - $375 million! - to give up this quickly. So simply because of those three players the Angels have to try to work with what they have. That said, they have SOME leeway. I would suggest that their players come in a few general categories. First you have the three players above, who are essentially untradeable (although for very different reasons): Trout, Pujols, and Hamilton. Then you have the players that are young, cheap, and talented - players that you want to keep but have a fair amount of trade value: Bourjos, Trumbo, Richards. Then you have the veterans that have trade value but are valuable contributors: Weaver, Wilson, Vargas, Aybar, Kendrick, Iannetta, Frieri, I suppose we could toss in Williams. Then you have a group of spare parts that might have some value for the right team, are pretty easy to replace, but you don't want to give away for free: most of the bullpen and bench, plus Callaspo. Blanton and Hanson are in their own categories - they don't have much trade value, although I suppose someone might want to take Hanson on as a project. Blanton is basically untradeable but unlike the first three players there's little incentive to invest in him because of his relatively small contract ($15 million). So what to do? The Angels are 10 games behind the Athletics and Rangers and 9 games out of the wildcard with tons of teams ahead of them. With 87 games to play I don't think you toss in the chips now, but the Angels will know better by mid-July whether they have a snowball's chance to get into the postseason. So if you're Dipoto you're thinking about who you can move now but you're not actively trying to move anyone, at least until we get a week or so into July. The next question is what to bring in? Obviously the big problem has been starting pitching. Or rather, I'd say the problems are ranked as follows: 1) Starting Pitching (desperate) 2) Pujols & Hamilton's production (very serious) 3) Bullpen (problematic) 4) Defense (problematic) 3 and 4 can be worked with over time and improved gradually and in the offseason. 2 will either work itself out with time or it won't, but no trades or free agent acquisitions will fix it. So we're left with the starting pitching. The problem, there, is that few teams want to trade good, young pitchers which is what the Angels need. The only way they're going to get anyone worth keeping, that is young at least, is by offering Trumbo or Bourjos. All of the other players that are tradeable will only possibly net the type of players that we would be trading. So the Angels are in a bit of a bind. They don't want to trade Trumbo or Bourjos, but they need young starting pitching. My recommendation is that they shop Hanson, Vargas (if he's healthy), Williams, Iannetta, Downs, even Aybar and Kendrick for young pitching talent. They could probably also throw in Cron and Grichuk as trade chips. I don't think Lindsey will be ready to take over for Kendrick next year, but he'll be close. Aybar might be harder to replace, but the Angels could get a fill-in during the offseason until Stamets is ready. Again, just throwing possibilities out there. Its going to be a rough road.

Glen, we just sucked more - five picks is a lot, and three of them have been absolute wastes. Reading comprehension fail. The metaphors I was asking to Scioscia to smoke were that the "lunatics are running the asylum" and "this is a rudderless ship." Scioscia has a major leadership role in running the asylum/ship. No, he doesn't draft, but my metaphors were (obviously, I think) about the organization as a whole. And no, I'm not placing primary blame on Scioscia. I think this blame can be spread around quite evenly.

The Angels drafted five players before Taijuan Walker in the 2010 draft - including Ryan Bolden, Chevez Clarke, and Cam Bedrosian. Let's face it folks: the lunatics are running the asylum. This is a rudderless ship. Put those metaphors in your pipe and smoke it, Scioscia.

Don't forget Anibal Sanchez, and Rick Porcello isn't bad for a #5. Best rotation in baseball by a long shot.

Here it is.

Weaver: sucks Cole: good

I think the problem is similar to Haren - because he (and Haren too) is a pitcher and not a thrower, he doesn't rely on raw stuff. But because of that there is little room for that stuff to decline because its not that great to begin with. Even a crafty pitcher can't succeed with mediocre stuff, and Jered's stuff has been trending downward.

OK mulwin, I respect your opinion and am willing to give Weaver the benefit of the doubt - I'd also like to see at least a few more starts before writing him off. That said, Weaver may be a case where FIP is correct. Here's his FIP over the last few years, from his career best in 2010 through 2013 (but not including tonight's start): 3.06, 3.80, 4.18, 4.21. Remember that FIP is meant to be an indicator of future performance. The trend has been consistently down and I think FIP has accurately predicted his decline. Fangraphs has a disturbing write-up from yesterday: http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/jered-weavers-declining-skills/

Its hard to believe but it seems that Jered Weaver might be another example of Jerry Dipoto poorly scouting a player. I know, when he gave him that extension he was pitching as good as ever but what has happened since? When you look at Weaver now, the decline in strikeout rate over the last few years becomes more indicative of overall decline. I remember mentioning his declining K rate a year or two ago here and getting attacked for it. And now look.

I'm very worried about Weaver.

Let's not get ahead of ourselves. I'll be very happy if, 20 years from now, we see Trout's name on the top half of this list of the greatest outfielders in major league history (sorted by WAR). Or be among the 20 or so position players in the exclusive 100+ WAR, hopefully joining Albert Pujols (who is at 87.1 now). It is amazing to think that Trout is almost 15% there - and he's not yet 22 years old.

We can hope for Hamiltime but all we've seen is Hamildone.

I think my biggest hesitation about trading Trumbo is that because he seems like a smart, dedicated student of baseball, I wouldn't be surprised to see him make a Chris Davis/Jose Bautista-like jump in performance in another year or two. I'm not saying he'll be that good, but I could see him going from his normal .260-.270, 30 HR to .290 and 40 HR, especially if he continues drawing walks. So again, I wouldn't trade Trumbo with the idea that he's a .260/.800 hitter, but that he's an improving .270/.850 hitter who could get even better.

I think some of the subtlety of the author's argument is being lost. Consider that for the Angels to win in 2013 (and, presumably, the next few years) 1) they need Pujols and Hamilton to start hitting, and that 2) if they are hitting Trumbo becomes less needed, and that 3) the Angels biggest weakness as an organization is young pitching talent, 4) now might be the time to trade Trumbo as his value is as high as it ever will be (assuming he doesn't hit .300 with 40 HR next year). I'm not saying I want to do it, but that it should be considered - if the right package is offered. And even then, the Angels shouldn't just trade him for the best package offered - they should trade him if and only if its a great package. Actually, Profar is an interesting idea. I don't think the Rangers would do it but they'd consider it, considering that Trumbo would likely hit 40 HR in Texas and they don't have a spot for Profar in the middle infield for a few years to come. Trumbo would give them more firepower for the next couple years than Profar. That said, there's no chance Trumbo would be traded to the Rangers or Athletics.

I'd normally agree with you, but in the rare case of someone like Felix Hernandez I'd think it would be worth considering. King Felix is still only 27 years old and among the best pitchers in baseball. With questions around Jered Weaver he'd give the Angels a true ace for the next half decade. If Weaver comes back to form, they are a tremendous 1-2 punch. As I wrote in the "trade Trumbo?" thread I'd also consider Cliff Lee or some package from the Padres that includes Andrew Cashner. In truth, Trumbo's real trade value might be Cashner alone - who is a very talented young pitcher - but they might be able to pry another young player from the Padres, like disgraced juicer Yasmani Grandal. I wouldn't trade Trumbo out of desperation, but he may serve the team's chances of winning - at least this year - in a trade for a pitcher.

According to Jed Rigney it is. This is exactly the type of perspective my head agrees with but my heart doesn't. Like not re-upping Torii Hunter for two years, or signing...uh, a 32-year old Albert Pujols for ten years or an erratic Josh Hamilton for five years. I agree with his basic point, though: "...Josh Hamilton, Albert Pujols and Erik Aybar need to actually start hitting -- in which case Trumbo's offense is superfluous. But if the multimillionaires don't come through, then Trumbo's contribution is pointless, because no one cares whether you win 80 games instead of 75. Either way, they don't need Mark Trumbo." The thing is, though, Trumbo is one of the stalwarts on the team and, presumably, the clubhouse. Just as Torii Hunter's value went beyond his statistics, so does it seem to be the case with Trumbo. Overall, though, I think Dipoto should float his name out there and see if anyone dangles a #2 pitcher or some top pitching prospects. A couple possibilities: SP Andrew Cashner and juicing but talented C Yasmani Grandal from the Padres SP Cliff Lee from the Phillies SP Felix Hernandez from Mariners - along with a few prospects and Garret Richards

I hate to say it but this is the year that the Greinke trade would have really helped. If Dipoto could pull off something similar, I'd support it - even if it made our already barren farm system absolutely desolate. But imagine this: a package for Felix Hernandez. What would it take? I think a five-player package, something like: One of Bourjos or Trumbo Garret Richards Any three prospects in the Angels system - from among Calhoun, Cron, Cowart, Lindsey, Grichuk, Maronde, Stamets, Yarbrough But even that wouldn't be enough. Even with throwing one of Bourjos and Trumbo and Richards, the Angels would need to offer up at least one prospect with true star potential - and I don't think they have any. Even if we buy the Lindsey hype train, he's still probably "only" another Todd Walker, and none of the other players look any better than future average to above average major leaguers.

You didn't quote the best part: "I think I’m going to stop putting a ceiling on what Mike Trout can do. The best 20-year-old ever might end the year as the best 21-year-old ever. We should appreciate what we’re seeing. No one has ever seen this before." This is quite a statement coming from the usually very stoic Dave Cameron, someone who has gone on record as supporting Bryce Harper as having more upside than Trout.