gotbeer

That was a great ending.

So, people will argue that instant replay is absolutely necessary in baseball. But in golf they want nothing to do with it? In golf, every play is not looked at by a referee or umpire. You have marshalls that more or less are there to interpret rules. Cheating is on the honor system. But I would limit the rules changes to when the score card is signed. None of this overnight review. I also don't like the first rule. One of the things a weather report can give you is wind speed and direction. That is very valuable technological information.

Taking a second look at his stats. Noticed he hasn't completed many games the last 2 seasons. That may play into the Angels hand if there is an injury perception with him. He's 29, so maybe with that perception, he would sign a 2-3 year deal to prove himself at 10-12 per? More wishfull thinking but you never know.

He's a tough one. Santana is asking north of $100 million. And yet, while 2013 was a good 3.24 ERA/1.14 WHIP, he has that 2012 of 5.16/1.27 for us. Like clockwork, Santana is a jeckle and hyde pitcher that can wow you or cause you to grimace. He has a career average of 4.19/1.28. Garza, I have heard any figures on him yet. In 2013 he had a good 3.17/1.14 for the Cubs, then followed it with a clunker of a 4.38/1.32 for the Rangers. But he does have AL experience with the Rays, in which for 4 seasons had a sub 4 era/1.25ish WHIP. A career average of 3.84/1.28. And if you throw out his 13 games with Texas and his first year in the MLB, in 7 years, he's never had an era over 4 and a WHIP is a consistent 1.25, except for his first and second year in the league. Personally, I like Garza over Santana because you know what you will get from Garza. Santana will be either the best signing or worst signing, depending on the year. I think the Angels budget for a starter will be low, but he would fit in nicely as a solid contributor. He won't wow you and be called a #1. But he will be a bread and butter #3. If the Angels could get him for 5/$60 that could fit in the budget. But I have a feeling he will get in the high end of the 80 and maybe 90 range due to lack of pitching.

Gut feeling tells me, that if the Yankees don't get Tanaka and lose Cano. There could be a Lee/Howard Doggie type trade coming.

4.00-4.25 ERA would be a huge improvement over our 5.42-6.04 ERA our dynamic duo did over 205 IP. If you can get him on a Hudson type deal, I would do it.

They have repeatedly said they wouldn't pick up any of Lee's salary. And the blueprint has already been laid by the Doggies. If you want him, you will pay.

LOL. That was funny Nate.

I'd rather have 2 solid setup men than 1 Nathan.

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If we pay him like a 4.19 ERA/1.29 WHIP pitcher. Than sure. If we pay him like a 3.79 ERA/1.15 WHIP pitcher from the NL. Then pass. I'd go about 2/$20 on him. Don't want to go 3 since he's already 36.

Makes me more confident that we can get a deal with Vargas done on a relatively reasonable deal. But it's a good deal for the Giants. I wouldn't have minded him at that price/length

Shoulder injuries are scary. Minor league deal. But that's about all I'd risk.

Rule 5, if you add someone, they have to stay on your MLB roster for a full year before they become your property right? If that's the case, I doubt that Angels add anyone. We already have Blanton that's going to take up one spot. I don't know if we can handle two spots.

Didn't we just sign him last year?

Did Aybar make the list? Slow loading sideshows should be banned on the interwebs.

If we lost Berg, I'd call the police to check up on AO.

Another great episode.

Ok, after finding that link on fangraphs, here are the starting pitcher graph. Again, google docs Chuck. also I noticed that they are including option players, since I know Shields has a 2014 option, so some of these pitchers have to be excluded. so just simply going on IP of 170 or more, and an ERA of under 4.40. I have 200 IP and 4.34 ERA above, but just to see who makes the cut. I think Shields has an option, Lincecum was re-signed, and Santana and Jiminez we would lose a draft pick over. So for just 2013 Bartolo Colon James Shields Ervin Santana A.J. Burnett Ubaldo Jimenez Hiroki Kuroda Ricky Nolasco Andy Pettitte Jon Lester Bronson Arroyo Scott Feldman Tim Lincecum And for 2011-2013 James Shields Hiroki Kuroda Tim Hudson Ervin Santana Dan Haren A.J. Burnett Jon Lester Tim Lincecum Jason Vargas Bronson Arroyo Ricky Nolasco Joe Saunders Notes. Bartolo missed it by 3 games.

Expanding on the previous post I made. Now looking at relievers. I used the charts available here for righties, and here for lefties from fangraphs. And I combined them in a google docs (need that function on here Chuck) here. Big question is, what do you want from a reliever? I think this is a personal preference situation. So here goes my preferences. First tab uses the 2013 numbers, second tab, the last 3 years. First, Wins, Losses, and Saves were not part of my filter. As I stated in my previous post, closers are generally a lot more expensive than just relievers. Games. yes, I want pitchers that entered a lot of games, even if it was just for one batter. So first filter, at least 30 games. It's a bit low, but it's a start to widdle down. BB/9. yes, I don't want a walker. (And I did not include K/9 because as I said in my previous post, a perfect inning is 3 pitches 3 outs, not 9 pitches 3 k's) Made the cut 4 per 9 innings. HR/9. Don't want a home run pitcher. Made the cut 1 per 9 innings. LOB%. Yes please. If a pitcher comes in, leaving inherited runners on base is a good thing. Made the cut at 80%. So possible targets using my criteria for 2013 Joaquin Benoit Mariano Rivera Joe Nathan Joe Smith Jesse Crain Chad Qualls Scott Downs Jason Frasor Luis Ayala J.P. Howell and for the last 3 years Eric O'Flaherty Jesse Crain Mariano Rivera Joel Hanrahan Grant Balfour Luis Ayala Scott Downs Oliver Perez And yes, I was surprised that Downs made my cut.

Hughes is an interesting buy low. 2013 splits 6.32 ERA, 1.55 WHIP at home vs a 3.88 ERA, 1.35 WHIP away. 3 year total of 5.35 ERA 1.39 wHIP home vs 4.34 ERA 1.35 WHIP away. Big difference. 45 HR home, 23 Away. Last year 17 vs 7. Just looking at last year, those 10 home run difference, assuming they were all solo, would have dropped his ERA down to 5.18. Yankee Stadium is at a 1.086 park factor compared to a 0.968 at Anaheim. A +0.118 difference from us. In comparison, Rangers is a 0.017 difference, and Oakland is -0.079 difference from us. So yeah, he might be a perfect buy low candidate.

Also, just saying if you sign Vargas for say 3/$30, and add him into the counts. Vargas. Had that blood clot thing. But he still pitched 150 IP, 4.02 ERA, 1.39 WHIP. Career average, he had 4.30 ERA, 1.32 WHIP. He should have 200 IP, and going off the highs a 4.30 ERA, 1.39 WHIP. That would put our 4 starters at 832 IP, 1.31 WHIP, 3.91 ERA. Take it a step further. Say you trade for Buerhle. (Yeah, I really like the idea of trading for him, which is why I bring him up a lot) Jays owe him $18 and $19 million. Jays had a $119 million payroll last year and finished in last. This number was also $36 million more than 2012. And their committed payroll is already $119 million for 2014. They may be looking to shed some payroll. Then you say the angels can't take all that payroll on. Iannetta $4.98 + $5.3. Net of $13.02 million for 2014. Then if they take Blanton (not likely at all), or Hanson (which they might take a chance on) so Hanson. And even so, some will say they won't take him. Ok, so Buerhle for Iannetta straight up. Jays save $13 million for 2013. Angels increase by $13 million, and we non tender Hanson. So there, we get the figure to $9.1 million. Now you add in Buehrle's numbers. 203 IP, 1.35 WHIP, 4.15 ERA. That brings the team total to 1035 IP, 1.32 WHIP, 3.99 ERA. Does it set the world on fire? No, but a 1035 IP/1.32 WHIP/3.99 ERA vs a 964 IP/1.39 WHIP/4.30 ERA gets us a lot closer to Texas, who had a 3.99 ERA, 1.30 WHIP last season and Oakland's 3.72 ERA, 1.21 WHIP. Consider the park factor of Texas 0.985, Anaheim 0.968, Oakland 0.889 and our starters are pretty close. Spend the money on the pen and a healthy Pujols. And we got a season.

What does this team need to be competitive in 2014? I am taking a look back to 2002. I see constant posts about wanting to trade big pieces of our team, in the hopes of getting young starting pitching. Santana is asking for over $100 million, Nolasco $75 million. Pitching isn't cheap right now. It's a sellers market. In 2002, the Angels starters had 1077.2 IP, a 1.22 WHIP, and a 4.00 ERA. In 2013, the Angels starters had 964 IP, a whopping 1.39 WHIP and a 4.30 ERA. But you look at who should be in the rotation next season. Weaver. He had a fluke injury that kept him out 1 month. People will say his fastball is decreasing, and he doesn't K people much. Maddux, the pitching coach of the Rangers had a saying I read once. A pitchers perfect inning isn't throwing 9 pitches and getting 3 k's. It's throwing 3 pitching and getting 3 outs. This is Weaver. 2013 1.14 WHIP, 3.27 ERA. Career of 1.14 WHIP, 3.24 ERA. Next season, I expect him to have a 1.14 WHIP and 3.27 ERA over 200 IP. CJ. He had one of his best seasons ever. And yet, his WHIP was still a 1.34 with a 3.39 ERA. His career average is a 1.31 WHIP with a 3.60 ERA. For 2014, take the low and high and go with a 1.34 WHIP and 3.60 ERA over 202 IP. Richards. Giving him the nod for a starting postion. He had a 1.34 WHIP and 4.16 ERA over 145 IP last season. Career of 1.43 WHIP 4.42 ERA. He has improved his WHIP and ERA each year, so I'll say he will match his numbers and be pleasantly surprised hopefully in 2014, so a 1.34 WHIP, 4.16 ERA over 175 IP. Williams. No he isn't going to get a starter spot. But he will start some games due to injury. He was a 1.39 WHIP 4.57 ERA guy last year. We will go worse case, and give him his same stats as starting last season, 1.49 WHIP, 5.06 ERA. He averaged 5.52 IP Per start last year. I am going to figure 10 emergency starts for a total of 55.2 IP. Math time. 632.2 IP, 814 Walks and Hits, 1.28 WHIP, 3.78 ERA. So for starting pitching to match around the 2002 total, we need to find 2 pitchers that can pitch around 400 IP, 4.34 ERA, 1.11 WHIP. In this case, ERA is a more important stat than WHIP because it's much more realistic to get 2 guys with a 4.34 ERA, and 1.30 WHIP than 2 guys like Weaver. So the list will comprise of, just going off of 2013's ERA numbers in order Tanaka (posting) Colon Santana (1st Round Pick) Burnett Jimenez (1st Round Pick) Kuroda (1st Round Pick) Lewis (Coming off injury) Nolasco Arroyo Garza Feldman Hudson Vargas Kazmir With the 'perceived' budget constraints. For instance a Vargas may cost $10-12 million a year, a Lewis might cost as low as $5 million a year, Kazmir (while I don't want him) could cost under $10 million, Colon (with his steroid cloud) could be under $10 million. Point being, this team doesn't need aces. It doesn't need to get younger, if it means signing a vet that won't cost us a trade or a pick, and only money for a short deal. Also it means, that if we spend under $20 million for 2 starters, it would put our estimated opening day salary at $167 million and luxury tax salary around $175 million. This is without making any other moves. With a $189 perceived cap, that gives us $14 million annual average value to spend on 2-3 relievers. And talking of relievers, we can spend half to nearly all of that on a closer, since great closers top out over $12 million, and good one's can be $6-10 million. But why, when we have a guy with a 1.24 WHIP, 3.80 ERA, 37 saves with 4 blown saves, and is 28 years old with 3 more years of control left. Relievers/setup men top out at $5 million. Heck Burnett, as unfortunate as his situation was last season, was still a top reliever in the offseason and we got him for an escalating $3.5 million. So that means we can significantly improve our pen on $14 million. As the Boston Red Sox showed us last year. It's not the big splash that you make in the offseason that wins you a championship. But assembling a competitive team top to bottom. IMO, the Angels, with all it's 'perceived' budgetary constraints can still do that, without changing much of the makeup of team.

Did you know, that MLBTraderumors.com estimated what Trumbo would make in arbitration this year? Trumbo is estimated to get $4.7 million. So he's worth his weight in gold.

Bravo Jess. You went to actually compare Trumbo's contract to his weight in gold. Something I never would have ever thought of. I guess for Pujols it would be his weight in adamantium.