I am thinking Arroyo will be the fall back option if we don't get Tanaka.
Realistically, Tanaka will want a 6+ year deal. Garza will want a 5+ year deal. If you really think Garza will only get a 3 year, you will probably have to wait till March. Similar to the Lohse situation last season. But I think Jimenez and/or Santana will fit that bill more than Garza will. Also remember that Garza is 30 years old. So he will want to possibly maximize his last big contract, and a 3 year deal isn't it.
So Arroyo for 2 years, Tanaka for 6, or Garza for 5. Arroyo at say $10 million. Tanaka at $20 million. Or Garza at $15 million.
This would be my biggest arguement for Arroyo.
2014 $166 million
2015 $145 million
2016 $131 million
2017 $83 million
2018 $56 million
2019 $57 million
These are the conservative CBT numbers right now. Will the Angels be willing to go over the CBT figures on a regular basis? Now you extend Trout to a conservative $17 million a year.
2014 $166 million
2015 $162 million
2016 $148 million
2017 $100 million
2018 $73 million
2019 $74 million
Going 5 on Garza or 6 on Tanaka will really push the limit on the CBT. And 2017 on doesn't look like much now. But you also don't have your #1 and #2 current pitchers.
I don't think Garza will be a difference maker on the team. 155 IP last season. 103 IP the season before that. Scary stuff to give a 5 year deal on. I don't think Arroyo will be either . And Tanaka is full of question marks. He has the potential to be a great pitcher. But people are forgetting Scouts have projected him to be a #3 type pitcher. Do you want to commit $20 million over the next 6 years, and find out you have Diaske and a declining Pujols that make up some $45 million in CBT space? I won't even add Hamilton.
We could go the trade route. But look at what Texas gave up for 1/2 season of Garza. Even with 1 year left, teams will want at minimum the equivalent of a late first round pick in return, because that is what they are giving up in a trade.
The Angels are in a tough position. I can really see a scenario where we go into the season with what we have right now. Because anyone with 2 eyes can see the situation the Angels are in, and every team will try and take advantage of us. And it won't help that possibly the Yankees will also be in the same position as needing starting pitchers, but not wanting to pony up the money.