Inside Pitch

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/a-summary-of-the-positional-power-rankings-data/ Fangraphs recently ranked/rated the position players -- they posted their summary today adjusted for park effects and had the following to say about the Angels potential line-up. "Beyond just that calculation error, there are some other interesting things to be gleaned from the results. For instance, holy crap the Angels line-up. . They probably won’t actually end up with +35 WAR from their position players — it’s easier to underperform than overperform projections due primarily to injuries — but the gap between their starting nine and everyone else’s starting nine still stands out."

Great post and dead on.

The 80% number is not correct and it continues to drop. The actual break-even point according to most of the hardcore data was right around 68-69%, and that number tended to drop depending on the situation. Even the biggest detractors like Joe Sheehan and Mike Wolverton (who at one time wrote what many considered to be the definitive study on SBs), have come around recently as the value of getting an extra base has increased as power/offense has become harder to obtain. Look no further than how often the A's try to steal bases now compared to the early 2000s. Ultimately, it's the usage that's always been the rub. Risk Vs Reward. As the risk rises, so does that break-even point.

It's funny ST stats are being given so much weight.

Meh... maybe they were trying to show some faith in Conger... Maybe they wanted him to settle down and take the job. Maybe all this means is that Scioscia was right? I agree completely they should have looked at their options better, but I do understand them having wanted Conger to take the opportunity and not "throw it away".

Why don't you look it up? Since you likely blind yourself to anything that isnt a sparkling account of Rangers superiority, you likely missed this article. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-white-sox-and-beating-projections/ There are others -- take some time to educate yourself a bit. BTW, you are wrong about workloads and injuries. There are several studies that have been done. Injuries have gone up considerably since they lowered the mound and more and more pitchers went to the slider in particular. There have also been studies done on innings loads before age 25. There seemed to be a very strong correlation between a heavy workload pre age 25 and early ineffectiveness or flat out injury. Even good ole Nolan didn't pass the 200 inning mark until he was 25. The 90s and the PED era saw pitchers dominate longer than they had in the past -- so things get a bit murky but prior to that the data was pretty much all pointing in the same general direction.

Just curious.... Does Scioscia have a preference for veterans or is it track records? Is Scioscia really all that different than any other manager in looking at past performance when looking forward? Was this also considered a bad thing when Tony LaRussa did it or when Joe Maddon looks at a player's average vs lefthanded pitchers on day games after night games who are taller than 6'2"? He had no problem relegating Schoeneweis to the pen in favor of Lackey in 2002, or in starting him in a game 7. He had no qualms handing SS to Eckstein who, had never played SS before despite Benji Gil having been on the roster and being a natural SS. He handed the catcher's spot to Molina even though Wallbeck was still around. He replaced Rodney with Walden after what... a blown save? He put Howie into 72 games as a 22 year old while AK was still here, and made no attempts to lobby for his return. Aybar wasn't held back behind any veterans -- in fact they traded a veteran Scioscia LOVED (OC), to play Aybar. Kotchman, and Morales really only had to contend with each other.. Napoli's competition was Mathis. Dmac had the job at 3B til his body broke. Torii Hunter was moved out of CF for PB and he had the job until his play relegated him to the bench. Trout started as a 20 year old So other than possibly Brandon Wood, what young, vibrant, up and coming talent has been held back and forced to sit in favor of a crusty veteran? 20 games of Bobby Abreu last year don't count for me... especially since they were trying to get someone think he had something left in the tank. I must be missing someone really obvious.

You may want to look at how completely out of whack the Rangers pitching injuries have been in recent years compared to the rest of MLB -- usage may be playing into that. People talk up how much more pitchers used to throw while seemingly forgetting how often those pitchers were done by their early 30s, in particular guys who tacked on heavy workload before turning 25.

Yes, it's much more logical to think a 200 point difference in OPS is because he's "more comfortable" at home. Nevermind that EVERYONE that plays in that park sees their offense spike -- nevermind what those indexes say -- the park has NOTHING to do with his performance. Do you REALLY think a pitcher goes after Albert Pujols the same way they do Yorbit Torreabla? You cannot be this dense. And thank you for taking the bait. Once again, in your Homer world, Ian Kinsler is going to continue performing at all star levels while the guy that left the Rangers is bound to disappoint. Lets just pretend he wasn't a below average bat last year, let's pretend he isn't entering his age 31 season or that he happens to play 2B. You might want to take five minutes of your time to look up the decline curves for 2B. I don't expect Kinsler to magically turn into crap but he may be taking the Carlos Baerga, Jose Vidro, Mike Lansing run at decline.... Given he's owed 70 million guaranteed, I'd be worried if I were a Rangers fan because with his contract rates and "old player skills", it's unlikely he pulls a Michael Young sort of run into his mid to late 30s. BTW, the Angels aren't likely to get their money's worth with Hamilton, unlike you I can be honest about my team.

I liked Rory's call. I liked Dick Endberg's "And the halo shines tonight", thought that may be tinged with childhood nostalgia. Victor's current call may be my favorite because it's always said with a certain oomph.

You want him to magically understand and believe in park effects? Tell Homer, that Jered Weaver is better than Yu Darvish.. Then sit back as his argument focuses on home away splits.

This is about as dense an argument as you could make. Do you really believe that a pitcher approaches a hitter the same way regardless of how a park plays? BTW.... Allow me to shed some light on your home park's tendencies. All these indexes are for RHB. 1B - 104 2/3B - 112 HR - 116 R - 119 FB - 102 LD - 109 gbH - 104 ofH - 109 The ONLY thing that park inhibits is IF hits... thats likely cause a pop up bunt travels 150 feet. If you want the more generic numbers from ESPN you can see them here: http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor/_/year/2012

No, Homer... He doesn't "hit or walk much" on the road because there is less of a chance of an innocent fly ball going an extra 20 feet so pitcher's are likely challenging him more. Ian Kinsler for his career leaves TBIA and morphs into Yorvit Torreabla as a hitter. On the plus side, you guys are guaranteed to get replacement level value on the road from second base for the next five years at only 15 mil per season.

Kinsler is as much a creation of his ballpark as anyone currently playing. For his career he's posted a batting line of .238/311/.398 on the road -- 1800 at bats.. Aaron Hill has had some nice highs, but his lows are so much worse than anything Howie has done. For his career he sports a league average OPS+ of 100. Aaron Hill's defense is IMO, underrated by many. Howie gets a lot of crap because of other people's expectations, but he's a better player than we most Angels fans give him credit for.

Have the Angels given any indication where they are going to start Cowart yet? Otherwise, I don't know how good they will be but they will certainly be older than most AA teams.

AAA beckons.

I don't really believe in lineup protection, but I do believe hitting behind a guy that runs means more fastballs, especially if it's Pudge Rodriguez behind the plate. Kendrick as a whole hasn't hit well in the 2 spot save for 2011 when he posted an OPS 0f .872 in 197 plate appearances there, no idea whether or not he was being sent up there to do something specific or whatever, but he can hit fastballs pretty well. We can all roster-bate all we want, But I think we all know when it's said and done that MS will try Howie there at some point. He will also try Callaspo, and Aybar, and likely PB. The first time HK hits into a DP the usual suspects will act like it's the end of the world. The first time Callaspo goes 0-3 with a walk, people will clamor for Jimenez. The first time Aybar bunts for strike 3, people will call him stupid. Circle of life...

Meh, all I ever wanted from Kendrick was not to be the Johnny Ray, empty average, no glove, clone I thought he would be. Offensively, he's been very similar.... Defensively, he's been a world better. Kendrick's been an upgrade from the guy he was supposed to replace (AK). He will likely outperform his contract and has to be considered one of the success stories from the crop of Angels minor leaguers that came up together last decade. If he can go on to be a 3 WAR type player the next three years he will have lived up to my expectations. He will likely end up the second best 2B in Angels history behind Bobby Grich (who should be a HOFer), and yet people will likely still consider him a disappointment because someone once said he was a future batting champion. GA was supposed to win a batting title too. STATS Inc once said of Emdonds and Salmon that both should win an MVP. Disappointments, all of them..

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/LAA/2013.shtml Anyone checked this out? BBRef has a pretty cool little thing they are tracking. OppQual -- Quality of opposing pitchers or batters faced Varies from 1 being rookie ball to 10 full-time major leaguer Based on the levels their opponents played at in the previous season. 10 - MLB 8 - AAA 7 - AA 5 - High A (California & Carolina) 4 - Full-Season A (SALLY and Midwest 1.5 to 3, Rookie and Short-season, 1 - Opposing batter is a pitcher ST stats are rather meaningless given many guys are just trying to work on a single pitch, or just get their arm strength up, but I don't recall ever seeing this be tracked before. I think it's pretty awesome. Also worth noting, the Angels have used 41 different position players to date... KC, the early spring stars, 28 position players. Seattle, the other team doing really well, 29 position players. It's interesting to see how different teams treat the early part of ST.

Percentage of clean to dirty uniforms per game.

THIS. Most people ignore that WAR is primarily an attempt to measure value. As in return on investment. $$$. ESPN is among the biggest culprits IMO.

You seem to be getting hung up on the semantics, not saying that to be dismissive in any way, it just seems you just have issues with what is being defined as more than what it's actually trying to measure.. Would you like it more if they called it VAR? Value over replacement? WAR tries to assign a set $$ value to a win for the purpose of comparing value to a team. Any player that does more to help you win (defense, playing time, offense), typically has more value. People bring up that Harrison had a greater WAR than Weaver -- when you consider he pitched 24 more innings and may have done a better job of preventing runs after the park adjustments, it's really not as ridiculous as some are trying to make it. Is there no benefit to a team getting more quality innings from a guy? WAR usez runs as the penalty/bonus simply because run prevention is just as important a factor as run scoring is. Recent studies have shown that run prevention may actually have more of an impact on winning than offense. The irony being that when it's all said and done all the math and new fangled formulas simply support the old notion that pitching and defense wins championships. I understand your issue is with the values themselves but you cannot deny that position and defensive position has a massive impact on how valuable a player is. A shortstop that will provide league average defense while hitting like a 1B is a massive boost to a team. If you put a 1B at SS, how much would the pitching suffer? If that SS is also a gold glover. How much more valuable is he? If that same team has a 1B above the league average for all players but below the league average for 1B, is it not dealing with a relative weakness at 1B? Would that weakness be even more acute if he was also a poor defensive 1B? That's the value WAR is trying to put a figure to. If you were to consider the positional adjustment a BONUS to positions up the middle instead of a penalty for playing the corners does it somehow change things? I think the biggest issues with WAR are tied into the defensive metrics in place. They are still relatively new and much more volatile, as such there is criticism there. Even great defensive players can show some massive variances in the metrics from year to year. Personally I don't see the mythical replacement player as a problem -- it's better to have that value be fluctuate based on league wide results than to have a fixed value that has little to no bearing on what the league tendencies are. As an example, QUALITY STARTS. If ever there was a stupid stat it's QS. it's defined by 6 innings and no more than three runs allowed -- a 4.50 ERA. So, a guy goes 8 innings and allows 4 runs, still a 4.50 but no longer a QS. A guy goes 9 innings allowed 4 runs, a lower ERA but not a QS. If those values were based around the league average ERA -- then the QS data might be useful. I think the people who have said that WAR is best used in conjunction with other stats have the best grasp on the situation. It's a nice statistic to use for a quick and easy comparison, but it shouldn't be the end all be all. I don't think there will ever any one stat that can measure everything perfectly.

This same article will be written 50 more times by 50 other guys this season.

I thought this was going to be about Gerry "Moon" Mullins, former Anaheim High/USC/Steelers OG,,,

Preach it.