Inside Pitch

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/draft/research.asp?Y1=2016&Y2=2016&R=&RS==&Ov=&Ovs==&T=26&Player=&School=&Pos=&HL=&Region=&P=June-Reg&CT=&Bonus=0&Signed=&Active=&Source=&Bats=&Throws=&Sort= Look familiar? 18 of the first 20 picks -- college.

Dipoto had Gohara traded to the Reds for Cozart last year only to have the deal fall apart when they couldn't get it finalized in time (trade deadline), with the league offices last year. He actually ended up getting better value there than he would have in that deal IMO. He definitely chased high floor and it's easy to make a case for why he's doing it. You look at the FG.com projected standings and the difference between his current team and ours is the amount of volatility in the Angels projection -- the M's are a safer bet to hit that 84 win median. Adding more certainty in Gallardo and Smyly (even with whatever issues they carry); should help buffer any further decline that might occur at the top of that rotation. It's a safe move... whatever long term issues it may cause it's a smart move for a team trying to put it together now. Angels fans will likely look at the moves as more of the same and it's an easy connection to make, but IMO Dipoto is correctly acting on what appears to be a weak AL. He has IMO correctly identified a window in which to compete.

To the bolded line above -- lighten up.. If you think that was an unprovoked insult then, sorry... that wasn't the intent... But I think you've read me long enough to know if I was trying to insult you I'd have been much more obvious, so yeah.. lighten up. You're spending way too much time defending a position that doesn't need defending. Not sure why..... my opinion on the merit of such things packs as much power as a wet fart.... I think it's dumb to call a plan stupid when I don't even know what the plan is. So what? Hell, ever read some of my Teflon Jerry posts? Talk about dumb. Later..

Asking what the goal/plan is and asking what I think he's worked towards are two different things -- it's anyone's guess what the ultimate goals are so lumping the two things together seems like a bit of misdirection. But as far as what I'm basing my opinion on .... all one needs to do is compare his body of work to the things he said he wanted to work towards -- and maybe some of the things he didn't say but has actually done. Here's what I do know. Eppler came in with a stated goal of rebuilding the farm system and spending every possible dollar in that venue -- they followed through on it to a much greater degree than we have seen in many years. He's talked about improving the defense and becoming more athletic -- most of his actions support that -- starting with the Simmons deal. He's said he would spend all of his international budget -- they did. He said they would look for and attempt to acquire undervalued players (LOL -- this is lip service ... what team doesn't), and to a degree they have succeeded there with guys like Marte and Guerra. He is further attempting to do that in acquiring the arms he has of late -- none of them have amounted to shit,but all of them were at one time highly thought of and for some reason or another lost some of that luster. I'm gonna go out on a limb and argue the reason he is doing those things is because after taking stock of the organization he knows how razor thin the organization is and how many holes he needed to patch up. It's also worth noting that while he tried to downplay how much of a saber guy he is he's worked pretty hard towards improving that facet of the front office... IMO we have seen proof he actually believes what he's saying and that he intends to follow through -- I simply didn't see enough of that under JD. As a reminder -- JD came in talking about how it was necessary to maximize age windows and take a balanced approach to team building. He was successful in some ways on the first thing but at the same time the trades undermined it. He did little to make anyone believe the balance talk. He ignored the pen for years -- targeted high floor. low ceiling college prospects and went almost exclusively towards pitching. Whats that? He needed to do that because of the state of the farm? Fine -- the problem is he turned around and traded those same pitchers almost as quickly as he obtained them. He talked about pursuing guys who controlled counts on both sides of the ball, then turned around and signed Nibs and traded for arm after arm with control issues -- even some of his wins fit this profile... Santiago, Frieri. There are other examples of things he said .vs what he did -- and to be perfectly honest I do believe some of it may have been out of necessity, but IMO there was a lot more inconsistency there. Clearly, you see things differently. Perhaps you don't value the things they are seemingly working on because it doesn't impact the 90 win criteria that seems to be your goal and that's fine. But questioning the intelligence of a plan when you don't know what the plan is -- is IMO dumb.

Yep -- it would never fly with the union. The one constant you hear EVERY off-season is that the market is waiting for the top to get established so that the second tier guys start signing deals -- impacting that ONE top player dings everyone.

I think you're mistaking me for someone else -- I would have preferred he worked the edges, all I wanted that first off-season was for him to fix the pen and add pitching, I've been a run prevention guy for a lot longer than it's been fashionable. My beefs were pretty consistent... I hated the free pass people gave him and believed his work with the farm was atrocious. Sorry.... but I never agreed with everyone here that wrote everything off as a case " It's not his fault look at what he had handed to him". I've said rather often that I didn't believe he had it all that bad -- and no, my view didn't change as things went sideways. Mike Trout, Cron, Richards, Shoemaker, Grichuk, and Chatwood in the farm system. The still in their primes Kendrick, Aybar, Trumbo, Walden, Weaver, and Santana, -- Haren was tapering off but still effective even if he did have a disastrous season his final year in Anaheim. JD was unlucky with Bourjos and the injury bug but he still had serviceable to above average vets in Callaspo, Hunter and a back from the dead Morales. He was also gifted with 350 million dollars worth of FA money at hello.. I've never faulted him for AP, and I'm one of the very few that believes his Grienke trade was as good a use of organizational currently and max return on value as we have EVER seen in Anaheim, but there isn't a single aspect of the team you can point to that anyone can argue was better when he left it than when he got here and I guess that leads to my final thought on the issue.. When push comes to shove, I just happen to believe that all those excuses people used for JD actually DO apply to Eppler, I wish Eppler had inherited the team JD did from perspective of team talent and payroll flexibility. Despite your constantly shitting on him, Eppler's had to work with a lot less and been far better at working towards a goal than what we saw previously (this applies to Reagins too). Also, like Dipoto he got saddled with his manager, but unlike JD he seems to have actually forged a working relationship there instead of the divisive BS we had to sit through for a few years. I don't believe that Eppler and JD are working to achieve the same things in their first couple of seasons as GM. I don't believe their actions dictate a similar approach, the moves might seem similar (I think thats what you're trying to hint at), but the actions seem to be driven by vastly different motives and needs. Edit: FWIW -- getting out from ANY of the Wells contract is another JD gem. I don't believe he ever got enough credit for that bit of magic.

There is already an interview with Scott Boras where he states he wouldn't recommend any of his clients try to opt out using this loophole. When Boras takes a stance like there there is likely a pretty good reason. Unless they redo the CBA or do something to alter it the answer is no.

Why would someone that had no part in obtaining any of Trout, Calhoun or Richards be credited with them? JD inherited an underappreciated farm system that had the best player in MLB in it and had just graduated Mark Trumbo. The Angels system may have been shallow but it had some more to it than it was given credit for. Honestly, Arte's meddling aside JD walked into a situation where the owner was willing and able to spend and the farm system had MLB ready talent in it -- compare that to what Eppler walked in and it's night and day. Thankfully, Arte's bonus baby comes off the books after this season, so hopefully we will get to see if Eppler is good at spending money as he is working without it. Agreed on Eppler. Sometimes a GM will look better when he's forced to work within a budget because he cant spend the sort of money that can come back to bite a team in the ass. As much as I like what Eppler has done, we still need to see how well he does when he has money and spend.

DD likes to trade but Dombrowski was adept at building farm systems... He cut his teeth in Montreal, he was hand picked by Bill Stoneman to take over as GM but his work at the farm level was legendary -- he was the guy I had hoped would take over in Anaheim when Stoneman wanted to retire. The Montreal farm system was always among the best during his tenure there as well. The M's draft last year was a near carbon copy of what JD did in Anaheim.

So for it to work they would have to redo the CBA -- is that what you're saying? Because in a system with a luxury tax, a CA team that front loads a contract to stay competitive could suddenly find themselves in luxury tax hell if a player opts out and that 10/300 contract is suddenly a 6/240 contract. That 10 mil per year difference hit to the CBA tax figure could be a huge issue. That's a concern teams in every other state wouldn't have. So again, if the end result is that CA teams stop making offers that could punish them down the road then there's a good chance it impacts salaries in a negative way

And based on FGs projected standings they went from an 83-84 win team prior to the trades to an 81-82 win team after. IMO their projection might be selling Gallardo a bit shot.

No you dolt, the union would have an issue with CA teams suddenly backing away from making offers a player could walk away from after 6 years. It's a situation that could limit a team's offer or make for less competition to sign players -- the end result is it could drive salaries down for players at the very top creating a very real ripple effect for everyone else. Try looking at things from a perspective other than one that suits your agendas..

This is IMO the bigger issue -- breaking the contract would mean breaking with the union -- the same union that gets on players for taking less money and working with teams, even when they want to. Anything that could cause a ripple effect or impact salaries in a negative way (like creating a world where none of the LA teams would ever sign a player for more than 6 years), would see stiff resistance from the union.

This thread.... is like a late Xmas gift to some.

That's the interesting thing -- he wasn't really down on him.. He talked more about how he was unfazed than the location issues and he loves his arm. Basically he believes Gatto is still just searching for something. Like you said, guys like that might never find it, but if they do. Boom.

???? You are trying way too hard to be contrarian -- to the point where you seemingly ignored much of what he actually said. He was optimistic, in fact the intent of his post was to publicly state he has sold himself on the idea that the pen will be better than he believed it would be. You basically are parroting most of what he said regarding young guys with potential and overall depth. I understand people love to take digs at statistical analysis and those who use it but when you ignore the message just to take a shot at stats you come off looking rather dim. Seriously -- read the last paragraph of his opening post...

Scout in the Yankees system that does nothing but track pitchers tells me that of all the pitchers he graded in the Midwest League nobody did a worse job of missing his spots than Gatto. Specifically, catcher sets a target and positions himself and then Gatto throws a ball that is nowhere near where the catcher was setting up or wanting it. This despite him saying that he thinks part of the problem is Gatto is trying to aim his pitches. Something needs to click mechanically for this kid soon or he's just going to bust. Great arm but hasn't found how to put it together yet. Side note, he also says no matter how bad he's getting raked, he doesn't seem to get all that flustered. So the kid has some fight in him ... As long as he's got that will to keep trying he's worth wishing on.

I personally think Hammel gets massively overrated by people. Career ERA+ of 86 in the AL (532 IP), it's not like he's just been unlucky, his FIP over that span is 4.68. His last go around in the AL with Oakland he put up an ERA+ of 88. Guys who give up hits and long balls tend to get murdered in the AL. If people are looking for an innings eater that will likely perform at below league average in the 5 spot -- then fine. But make sure that's what you're paying for and don't rely on him to really be much better than that.

Im a big fan of failed SPs being the best source of RPs... A return to that is a positive IMO.

This post is a HR.

And its gone again -- maybe for good this time.

Eleventy

Rasmus is a pretty unique guy.. He is hard to predict but he can be counted on to produce a certain amount of production.. Not sure I can think of another position player that does that the way he does.

I was aiming that more towards your usage of the counting stats in the 162 comparison. Rates will be the same regardless of 100 games played or 400 games played. I realize I pointed out the difference in OPS, but it was the easiest number to use in order to illustrate how the park may have helped him. And he's just as good a candidate to fall flat on his face and tank. He followed up a 132 OPS+ season with an 88 and an 86 season in his past -- He's anything but a sure bet to go in any one direction and there is more risk there than the numbers over 162 or his rates might indicate. He could break out, he could bust... My argument is that this team can't afford that sort of volatility if it really believes it can compete beyond April. Maybe the question should be whether it should bother or just aim towards 2018 now. Anyway... If you're talking about adding a Rasmus/Saunders to what we already have -- great. If you're talking about replacing Calhoun with either one of those guys -- that's a different story. I understand it's all relative to what the Angels could get for Calhoun, just pointing out that your comparison glosses over a lot of real volatility.

On a team with so many uncertainties, parting with one of the few sure things seems counter-productive. Tots I mean no disrespect but your Calhoun/Rasmus comp isn't really as close as the numbers would make it seem and it really isn't indicative of the types of players they have been. Rasmus 2013 is so far above everything he's done it masks his overall weaker performances since then and that season's numbers were impacted by his home park -- he had a .200 OPS swing home and away. It's also worth noting that Calhoun's 2013 amounted to 58 games -- he didn't become a regular until 2014. Also, while he's not been the injury magnet that Saunders has, Rasmus has struggled to stay on the field -- topping 118 games all of once since 2013 and never as many as 500 PAs.. When you average out the numbers to 162 games it masks those realities -- but they still exist. On the surface they might seem similar, but theory isn't practice and in practice Calhoun has been the model of consistency where the others are all over the effing place. There is a lot of volatility with Rasmus that just doesn't exist with Calhoun.