Inside Pitch

Was that the year the Angels won the WS with MS? Asking for a friend.

Worst part is seeing how giddy he was about that plane.... Tragic doesnt even begin to describe it.

Q rating. Papi is a big loud gregarious guy who once got on National TV and said this is our fucking city after a terror attack -- that's how.... Having taken his team to two WS also helped. Mike Trout is a boring dude... He also seems to shy away from the spotlight. I know you're trying to drive one of your narratives as usual but try looking beyond your limited view for once. BTW -- Joe Mauer.. career Twin made the list... ahead of four Yankees.

Yes, I'm aware of his limited salary potential -- I'm the one that educated you on the particulars if you recall. But none of that really matters.... the reality is being a NYY hasn't really helped Tanaka obtain any big marketing deals states-side.... Tanaka was just as huge of a deal when he came over - maybe even bigger because there WAS a huge bidding way and he did get big money. Big money signings tend to create hype and Otani will be far more limited on that end of the spectrum. Sorry.. it just doesn't work that way... Guys aren't passing on free money because -- "oh well I already made my bank playing baseball" -- those deals just aren't there because baseball has a limited audience. Beyond that, the number one factor in driving endorsements is Q-rating... People connect with people they like -- a guy that can't speak the language is already hurting himself in MLB's number one market. When it's all said and done Otani being a baseball player will hurt his endorsement potential far more than playing in NYC or Boston will help it. Baseball is on the low end of the scale when it comes to athlete endorsements, behind Golf, Tennis, Soccer, Football and Basketball, the fact that he has zero MLB track record won't help him either. Thats just the reality of it all. Obviously you believe differently, and that's fine . but based on the information we have -- playing for the Yankees has at best good for 1 Mil deal for Tanaka -- no other Yankee appearing on the list even got that much.. It's not like 1 mil is garbage, it's obviously on the high end for endorsement money among baseball players but nothing along the lines of what you are trying to make it out to be..

Like Tanaka? His only big time marketing deal was with Mizuno -- a Japanese company.... He had the biggest endorsement deal on the Yankees valued at around 1M per person -- or half as much as what Albert Pujols was getting while playing in the small stage in Anaheim. Pujols BTW ranked 5th among MLB players behind Big Papi, Buster Posey, Robinson Cano, and Miguel Cabrera. Joe Mauer was 8th behind Tanaka tied with Clayton Kershaw. http://opendorse.com/blog/2016-highest-paid-athlete-endorsers/

Actually, I did see that -- I also saw Hosmer's WAR in each of the previous even number years... FTR, mostly I thought it was funny. Steamer is all over the place with playing time right now -- always is early in the winter.

I'm on board with Santana -- If they did go after a corner IF position he's the best choice IMO. I like Nunez at 3B too -- I don't think he will be very expensive.

If he accepts he's basically off the market - if they offer the QO, regardless of whether or not he accepts there would be compensation.

Man, if you're gonna argue something using metrics -- it's best to make sure the metrics back your argument. Fangraphs (Steamer), is projecting Cron for 1.1 WAR right? http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=12546&position=1B Well, it's projecting Hosmer for 0.8 WAR http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3516&position=1B So, let's apply your thought process to this -- "I thought the point was to get better".

Seeing what he can do with some money is really the last thing Eppler has to prove still. Eppler's been pretty good about persuing the sort of player and the skill sets he claims to put a premium on... So... FWIW, I'm more likely to trust what he does than the guy who said one thing did the other. He's been said to have attempted to trade for Neil Walker in the past -- going to be interesting to see if he tries to sign him as a FA.

He's got a full no trade in the first three years -- The Cubs then get a two year window where there are 8 teams both sides agreed he could be traded to -- beyond that point he gets a full no trade again due to 10/5 status. It's an uncommon set up. Honestly his deal is a trip period.. He's got multiple opt-outs, the second one is requires him to have at least 550 at bats -- so it seems like the Cubs wanted that one in there to protect against him having a really good but injury shorted season then skating.. Dude's entire signing bonus was deferred too, but it becomes payable all at once if he opts out after next season.

I didn't believe you were trying to slant the numbers or anything -- just clarifying that I had in fact used three year samples and explained the steps I took to get there because that 27 game season tends to drive the numbers to a less than accurate conclusion IMO. It's more about that 2017 being questionable due to the bullshit that went on with the baseballs and MLB admission they are aware of the ball issues. And that's' the rub for me -- there is little question that Moustakas is likely a better bet than Cabrera, but at the numbers being talked about and the years -- a guy like Cabrera offers potentially similar value and almost none of the risk. Beyond that -- Moustakas contact and and swing rates are troubling for me. Those kinds of things tend to predict future performance a lot better than the typical triple slash numbers. While his overall performance seems to be trending one way -- those other indicators are going in the opposite direction.

I think if they are ever going to use him, they may as well try using him in that capacity... If they go after a guy like Neil Walker or run Valbuena out there at 3B then a guy like Cowart with a glove like his should be in line for a lot of late inning work and potentially at bats..

FWIW -- my Moustakas/Valbuena comps used three year samples -- only, I went back further in order to actually get three full seasons worth of at bats and not the 27 game season (2016), you are choosing to use. IMO, using a three year sample that amounts to two full seasons worth of at bats including one where everyone including MLB has admitted the balls were juiced makes for a questionable sample. Regardless -- he's not a garbage player and he's definitely been better in recent years .... unfortunately he's failed to improve on his biggest weakness as a hitter and IMO that's hard to disregard. His 5.7% walk rate this year was the worst of his career as was his chase rate. His O-contact rate was down for the fourth straight season (2nd worst ever). His Swinging Strike% has likewise been trending up and is now at 10.5% -- the second highest figure in his career. So, at an age when you'd expect his plate discipline to be improving he's actually getting worse. I don't believe the guy is a huge threat to completely crater, but I think he's a poor bet to repeat his 2017 and he's not far enough removed his his sub .700 OPS seasons to completely disregard them IMO... Its not even that I think the guy would be massively overpaid at 15 mil a year, it's more a case of my honestly believing there are better value hitters available who would be just as likely to help the Angels without taking up the same amount of payroll.

Below is a copy of Robert's rough draft for the primers... The man puts in work.. Thanks again, Robert.

Stop using Beltre as the basis for anything. Nothing about his performance since then can be compared to any other player in MLB if for no other reason because Adrian Beltre has a medically cleared reason to use testosterone due to the injury to his balls. He is for all intents and purposes the only MLB legally using steroids to avoid age related decline. Your comment about his doing 2/3 of what he did last year is based on HR totals and nothing else. Because at that level of performance he'd be a 80-85 OPS+ player -- basically the 2017 version of Albert Pujols.

Thats just it -- his 17 season completely alters the perception of who he is as a player. Alonso's career OPS prior 2010-2016 was .721 -- Career SLG% over that span -- .387. and an OPS+ of 103. I'd steer clear of anyone his age having a big breakout in power numbers in a season where the ball wasn't right. BTW, regressing to a .450 OPS is still projecting quite a bit more out of him than he's shown -- his three year sample puts his OPS at .764 with a .418 SLG% and that includes his outlier numbers this year. He's just not a clear upgrade over what we have currently. When it's all said and done his 2017 is not at all indicative of the player he's been and shouldn't be used as the basis for any expectations IMO

Both his balls work too...

Moustakas? Great defensively? If a negative DRS, UZR, UZR/150, Def, dWAR (BBRef), makes one a great defensive 3B, then sure. But in the real world where being a negative is below average.. not so much. BTW -- he's had one season where he hit more than 22 HRs -- this one. Not sure I'd want to bank on a guy seeing a huge spike in HRs in a season that's been called the season of the HR.... Is Moustakas likely to hit 35+ HRs next season without juiced baseballs? The Beltre comparisons start and end with them both playing 3B.

Alonso had one stupidly crazy month where he hit 10 HRs and slugged .800. Then he went back to being the same guy he's been his entire career. His second half OPS was .774 -- with a .420 SLG%. He's also someone who completely gets neutralized when facing LHPs. Cron and all his warts posted an OPS of .838 the second half with a SLG% of .512. If this team is going to spend money, it's my hope they spend it on people who are clear upgrades. Alonso is a meh....

Regression to the mean? I kid, I kid.

Both players have missed time the last three years -- but if you go back four seasons to make for a three year sample size ... Moustakas - 1665 ABs -- .258/.313/.459 - 106 OPS+ 7.4 bWAR Valbuena -- 1551 ABs -- .233/.325/.440 - 110 OPS+ 6.4 bWAR Valbuena's offensive WAR is higher, but he had a negative 1.1 dWAR four years ago that drops him behind Moustakas.

IMO the Angels should "Move on" from his horrible OBP skills. As I've said repeatedly since before the offseason started, he is easil the most overrated bat on the market. People will focus on the 38 Hrs and not see the mediocrity in everything else.

https://twitter.com/twitter/statuses/925938819894886400

I came here for your "I agree".