Pure stats versus Observation... and the damage to the game

[Mark68]

That is not what i said.. what i said is that i do not consider them the same caliber of pitcher. 

Statistically close, yes. But again it comes down to perception, observation, and all that other stuff that doesn't show up on a stat sheet and isnt part of fangraphs or baseball reference.  You know, the real world.

Clearly many of you are fine with the giant game of strat-o-matic... thats fine, you are entitled to that, as i am entitled to disagree.  You keep reading the box score, ill watch the games. 

 

And your argument assumes that the two are mutually exclusive. I do both. I watch the games because I enjoy watching baseball games. I also look at the stats, because watching the game does not tell the entire story, much as looking at the stats does not tell the entire story. I also love baseball so much that I play fantasy baseball (not Strat-O-Matic, though I have in the past), so the stats help in that capacity as well.

[tdawg87]

Scouts use perception just as much as stats. In fact they probably use it more. They are called Scouts for a reason. So basically one guy's perception vs. another, in a completely different era where advanced stats weren't as prevalent is an example you are using to support your position that today's statistically analytical game is ruining the sport.

Ok.

[Inside Pitch]

 

You go ahead and continue to think that people who read fangraphs lack the power of observation, intuition and have no regard for intangibles.  Because the ability to analyze a box score and the ability to recognize value that doesn't show up there must be mutually exclusive. 

 

It's really pretty funny...  I grew up playing baseball, ours was a baseball family.  As kids my brother and I got to run around MLB dugouts before games because of our family connection to Preston Gomez.  Both my brother and I played college ball at Div 1 schools, he was a lot taller than I was and was a pitcher, I was a middle IFer -- that background led me to believe I understood baseball better than most.   The 90s come around, myself and others would talk baseball on message board and these stats geeks would make comments I found to be incredulous, but rather than ignoring them I took it upon myself to try to learn as much about those stats as possible with the sole goal of proving them wrong.

 

That post never came.

Edited January 11, 2014 by Inside Pitch

[Inside Pitch]

all the scouts that told lasorda not to draft him... dont beleive me, look it up yourself... or dont i dont care lasorda himself said it on the show.  Lasorda took him anyway based on his opinion and perception.

 

So your beef is with the baseball establishment and not the saber world.  Stats guys don't go looking at how a kid looks and making judgments -- they wait on the numbers and try to analyze.  

You just swung and missed.

Edited January 10, 2014 by Inside Pitch

[HaloCory22]

Just took a look at Jack's stats. Wow. Nothing impressive AT ALL. He put together #3 type numbers even with his insane IPs.

[Inside Pitch]

OK im done.. ive listed the stats i base my opinion on and why.. ive listed what i think its doing to the game.. clearly im in the minority, im fine with that.

When a thread is degraded to insults and the "lol" posts now without any real discussion its no longer worth the time.. please feel free to lock it or delete it.

 

You really took the argument there when you opened up by placing yourself above everyone else by assuming that you do more than just look at stats while others simply read box scores.

 

Do you really think that anyone that would spend that much time researching baseball wasn't taken there by their love of the actual game?  Instead of faulting others for what you think might be a lack of perspective, maybe you should try widening yours.

Edited January 10, 2014 by Inside Pitch

[Coachbulldog]

I would argue that as defensive metrics have gained credence, guys like Belanger and company have once again been proven to be valuable.   The 90s and it's offense offense offense approach where teams like the A's felt defense didn't matter at all hurt glove first guys but as defensive metrics have evolved many of the old adages about pitching and defense have been proven without a doubt to be true.  I mean, there have been a lot of studies done on run prevention Vs run production with the same end result -- keeping guys from scoring leads to wins.

 

The current saber atmosphere is VERY friendly to guys like Belanger and Dal Maxvill.   

Correct. That is what I was trying to get it in my post when I pointed out that players that were considered valuable in one era have not always been considered valuable in another. 

[Angels Never Die]

I've given up caring about the HOF, it's a complete farce that deserves absolutely no respect from me.

[Brent Maguire]

very true coach.. i just saw a bit on Piazza on MLB where Lasorda was quoted as being told by everyone that scouted him that he couldnt do anything... we all know the history.. but again using today's metrics etc.. Piazza never gets a chance today.

This is just flat out wrong.

You really think Piazza wouldn't play today? Even if the stats showed he was a below average defensive catcher, he was still a fantastic hitter that could have just played 1st base.

[Blarg]

You missed his point. He contends today's stat infused selection process would have excluded Mike Piazza from being drafted today.

This presents a coupleof missunderstandings of the Piazza situation back when he was a high school athlete and how he ended up being drafted and what his scouted value would be considered today.

First let's go back in time and realize scouts at the time we not very stat orientated and used more of the Flopjag method of what I see is what the player is capable of. Their player tracking was simple forms and notes on legal paper, the laptop computer with a battery that could last nine innings didn't exist. So much of what Piazza was doing really wasn't being tracked or examined, they had maybe a couple games that scouts spent any time looking him over as having potential to be that better player. Essentially they were the guys lampooned in the movie Moneyball, Piazza can't be that good because he had an ugly girlfriend or some such nonsense.

Come draft day Lasorda puts in a request to have the kid picked with the Dodgers last pick in the draft. Generally this is a throw away pick so it is not as though some coach today hasn't done the same thing. The difference in Flopjags scenario and todays is that modern information gathering would probably alerted the Dodgers and other teams thta here was some hidden talent that they could pick up late in the draft and see if the talent grows. MLB is chock full of these late picks, like Alfredo Amezega and the guy picked after him, what's his name..., Albert Pujols.

A Piazza type player certainly could be on todays draft board but it doesn't seem like a last favor pick guy now, it is a guy well scouted and the data that had decades before slipped through cracks is now the basis for drafting that type of player.

This, of course keeps some other toolsy middle infielder from getting picked and I am sure 20 years from now there will be arguments as to how anyone could not see his value for reasons x,y and z.

All that said, Jack Morris is not a Hall of Fame pitcher.

[Brent Maguire]

Good points Eric. I definitely misunderstood where he was getting at.

I would be curious to see where Piazza would get drafted today.

[Docwaukee]

At age 20 and 21, Piazza had little to no power.  (.444 and .390 slg)

 

His age 22 season in the minor he magically became a power hitter. 

 

Maybe with newer scouting and advanced metrics something would have been noticed to help predict his progression, or maybe his progression was a little 'enhanced' once he became a dodger. 

[Inside Pitch]

At age 20 and 21, Piazza had little to no power.  (.444 and .390 slg)

 

His age 22 season in the minor he magically became a power hitter. 

 

Maybe with newer scouting and advanced metrics something would have been noticed to help predict his progression, or maybe his progression was a little 'enhanced' once he became a dodger. 

 

 

Check the park indexes....  He went from the FSL to the Cal League, Vero Beach was an extreme pitcher's park to boot..    The change in venues made for the difference in his power.

 

Florida State League (High Class A)

Runs per Game: 8.58 (10th out of 10). Hits per Game: 17.03 (9th).

Home Runs per Game: 1.13 (10th). Standard Deviation in R/G: Low (0.75).

 

 

California League (High Class A)

Runs per Game: 10.80 (1st out of 10). Hits per Game: 19.11 (2nd).

Home Runs per Game: 1.85 (2nd). Standard Deviation in R/G: High (1.76).

Edited January 11, 2014 by Inside Pitch

[Docwaukee]

Check the park indexes....  He went from the FSL to the Cal League, Vero Beach was an extreme pitcher's park to boot..    The change in venues made for the difference in his power.

 

Florida State League (High Class A)

Runs per Game: 8.58 (10th out of 10). Hits per Game: 17.03 (9th).

Home Runs per Game: 1.13 (10th). Standard Deviation in R/G: Low (0.75).

 

 

California League (High Class A)

Runs per Game: 10.80 (1st out of 10). Hits per Game: 19.11 (2nd).

Home Runs per Game: 1.85 (2nd). Standard Deviation in R/G: High (1.76).

not all the difference 

[arch stanton]

My fear about stats use is that it turns baseball into a 4 base cricket game where the emphasis is almost entirely on the batter's box. I enjoyed baseball more when there was Astroturf and a lot more happening on the bases and in the field. No need to turn back completely to bunt and run and closed stance slap hitters but I hope they find a way to keep some balance in the game. I know it's never going to happen but I hate the DH and would love to see it gone.

 

Same goes for player evaluation. Rate stats are nice but enough observation to create context goes a long way.

 

Oh. Morris is not a HoFer. The sustained dominance just wasn't there.

[YouthofToday]

DH creates more offense so more happens on the field. Since pitchers can't hit there is more emphasis on them failing in the batter's box.

Regardless, IMO the DH should be universal throughout the game.