Hot Stove Trade Speculation: Everyone Dreams of a Three Way

[AngelsWin.com]

 

By Robert Cunningham, AngelsWin.com Contributor - 

 

Disclaimer: This trade discussion is purely speculative in nature and presents an unlikely example of how the Angels can improve their roster for 2014. FanGraphs WAR stat is used to help evaluate player value, but it is merely a useful guide for this analysis. This article is meant to entertain and generate discussion!

 

Teams Involved:

 

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

Philadelphia Phillies

Toronto Blue Jays

 

Team Needs:

 

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim –

 

The Angels need pitching for both the rotation and bullpen. Additionally a possible upgrade at third base would be desirable. Team budget is a concern (even if Arte Moreno breaks the luxury tax threshold) so any trade would need to keep the team payroll relatively neutral. Improving their overall farm system is a secondary goal.

 

Philadelphia Phillies –

 

The Phillies need to fill one hole in the back-end of their rotation and bullpen. Additionally they have stated a need for a power-hitting corner outfielder who can hit left-handed pitching. Also their catching situation is up in the air and finding the right tandem for primary and back up duty is a priority. Improving the lower levels of their farm system is a secondary goal.

 

Toronto Blue Jays –

 

The Jays have made it clear they need to find an upgrade at second base. Also they have stated a desire to acquire a right-handed hitting backup catcher against left-handed pitching. Adding some inexpensive bullpen help could allow them to safely move one or more of their current relievers in trade. The Jays farm system is relatively strong and is a potential asset source.

 

Players Involved:  

 

 

 

‘Adjusted Value Out’ takes the average WAR of a player, over the last three years, and makes minor adjustments for age (decline), scarcity (projected high WAR season), and whether they project to receive a Qualifying Offer.

 

Please note that prospects are, by nature, inherently cheaper in value. Top prospects, of course, are more valuable than ‘organizational depth’ type prospects and Minor League experience level is also reflected in their value.

 

Example: The Rangers traded Mike Olt (#57 on MLB 2013 Top 100), Justin Grimm, C.J. Edwards, and Neil Ramirez for essentially $5.1 million (1.1 WAR for 2^nd half of 2013) and a half-year of Matt Garza. Although it was a deadline overpay for one mid-level star and three organizational players, it illustrates the point.

 

This prospect evaluation is reflected in the ‘Adjusted Value Out’ column in the chart above. Those players under contract that are likely eligible for a Qualifying Offer at contract end, which would net the controlling team a compensatory draft pick, adds additional dollars to their ‘Adjusted Value Out’ total.

 

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim –

 

The Angels are coming off a disappointing season and know that in order to compete they need to acquire young, controllable pitching and one of the only ways to accomplish that is through trade of some of their position players.

 

One of those players is Howie Kendrick. Since early June there has been increasing chatter that Kendrick and the remaining two team-friendly years on his contract could be moved. It is also likely that Howie, at the end of his contract when he enters free agency, will receive a Qualifying Offer which would net a draft pick, increasing his value.

 

Mark Trumbo is also a player that the Angels might consider parting with in trade. Several teams are looking for a corner outfielder/first baseman and the Angels don’t really have a clear starting position for him in 2014. Trumbo is also likely to receive a Qualifying Offer before hitting free agency, netting a draft pick for the controlling team.

 

Tommy Hanson might be a possible non-tender for the Angels. It is a borderline call but as a pitcher in the back-end of the rotation, his measly projected $3.9 million arbitration salary is reasonable, especially in this scarce pitcher market. Hanson would essentially be a one-year rental with possible upside.

 

Chris Iannetta also has two years remaining on his team-friendly contract. His positive value would allow the Angels to move him in trade and then sign a catcher who can hit left-handed pitching to backup Hank Conger, who would receive the lion’s share of starts in 2014.

 

Philadelphia Phillies –

 

The Phillies are also coming off a disappointing season and have needs in their rotation, bullpen, and the outfield. They too would like to acquire another young, controllable starter and a trade, especially if it involves moving one of their big contracts, would be desirable from a payroll point of view.

 

Cliff Lee has been the subject of trade talk for a while now and he is owed a tremendous amount of money over the remainder of his two year, plus one option year, contract. Despite his increasing age he has been very productive and the short contract length would be attractive to the right teams.

 

Note: For the purposes of this analysis Lee’s value is based on the idea that his option year would not be picked up and his buyout paid. Even if the option were picked up it would make minimal difference in this analysis.

 

Third base prospect Maikel Franco (AA) had a terrific offensive year in the Minors this season. His defense is fringe-average but he has decent hands and a sturdy arm. The Phillies already have Cody Asche, another third base prospect, up on the big league team who looks like he will start in 2014, making Franco expendable in the right move.

 

Finally the Phillies can afford to part with left-handed reliever Jake Diekman (AAA/Majors) and left-handed starter Austin Wright (AA) as they have other near-MLB ready starters (Biddle, Martin, and Pettibone) and relievers like Luis Lopez as depth for Bastardo and Horst.

 

Toronto Blue Jays –

 

Just like the Angels and Phillies, the Blue Jays are also coming off a disappointing season where they were expected to contend. Questions surround their rotation, second base, and at the backup catcher position behind Josh Thole.

 

Although the Blue Jays would be okay with retaining Casey Janssen, their 2013 closer, he could also be moved in trade to fill some roster holes. Janssen could be a one year rental for an acquiring team or a possible extension candidate.

 

Also J.P. Arencibia is a potential non-tender candidate for the Jays as their front office feels that left-handed hitting Josh Thole is their 2014 starting catcher. If the Jays could trade him and his projected $2.8 million salary it would be a plus as he is a borderline non-tender candidate.

 

Additionally the Jays have two of their top young starting pitching prospects, right-handers Aaron Sanchez (A) and Marcus Stroman (AA) that could eventually slot into the front end of a pitching staff. Since the Jays already have Jeremy Jeffress and Sean Nolin on their 40-man, these two are expendable in the right trade.

 

Finally the Blue Jays are able to part with right-handed relievers Joel Carreno (AAA) and Wil Browning (A+) who are young, cost-controlled bullpen pieces that are expendable.

 

The Trade:

 

 

How Does This Improve Each Team?

 

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim –

 

The Angels, by moving Kendrick, Trumbo, Iannetta, and Hanson, move a lot of salary off of the books to make room for the acquisition of Cliff Lee, a clear front of the rotation starter. Essentially the Halos trade four controllable, MLB players in exchange for one controllable MLB player, one rental MLB player and five prospects.

 

The net result of this trade, for the 2014 season, is an addition of $4,175,000 in team payroll and this doesn’t consider the fact that the Phillies will have to kick in some salary relief (about $5 million in 2014 and $8.5 million in 2015) to help balance out the trade making this a net gain in salary of zero for 2014.

 

If the Angels re-signed Jason Vargas, it would give them a starting five rotation of Cliff Lee, Jered Weaver, C.J. Wilson, Garrett Richards, and Jason Vargas, which would be a significant improvement over 2013.

 

In addition to Lee the Angels acquire a young, offensive minded third base prospect in Franco who could compete for a starting position in Spring Training and at the minimum would provide some quality depth at the position.

 

Additionally the back-end of our bullpen would be instantly upgraded with the addition of Janssen. Also the acquisition of Carreno and Browning creates additional, quality depth in the Minors with Carreno being the first called up in the event of an injury.

 

Finally adding Marcus Stroman and Austin Wright (both currently in AA) provides starting rotation depth which we badly need. If a starter is injured one of these two could get the call and fill in the gap.

 

Philadelphia Phillies –

 

The Phillies trade away two controllable MLB players, cash, and two prospects in exchange for one controllable MLB player, two probable one-year rental MLB players, a top pitching prospect, and some salary relief.

 

Losing Cliff Lee creates a bit of addition by subtraction for the Phillies mainly through payroll relief. Although they now have to fill a hole in the front of their rotation they have more cash to focus on a starting pitcher trade and their primary catcher position.

 

Mark Trumbo adds the right-handed, corner, outfield bat the Phillies need and Arencibia gives them a stop-gap backup catcher for 2014 with some slight upside. Hanson gives them a 5^th starter for their rotation and if he performs well back in the National League he could be a trade chip or extension candidate.

 

Although the Phillies would technically have about $12,250,000 available for 2014 they have to provide some salary relief for Cliff Lee. Assuming they send over the $5 million, mentioned above, it leaves them with a little over $8 million (for 2014) on top of the available payroll space (about $38 million) they currently have to acquire a starting pitcher, catcher, and set up reliever.

 

If the Phillies were to sign Masahiro Tanaka, for instance, it would give them a starting five man rotation of Cole Hamels, Masahiro Tanaka, Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez, Kyle Kendrick, and Tommy Hanson, which is not too shabby.

 

The remaining payroll could be used to acquire a left-hand hitting catcher such as Jarrod Saltalamacchia or Brian McCann to handle the main catching duties and a right-handed relief pitcher for their bullpen.

 

Finally the Phillies acquire the type of young prospect that they wanted in any trade for Cliff Lee in the form of right-handed pitcher Aaron Sanchez who can be a future front end starter for them in 2-4 years. Alternatively, the Phillies could flip Aaron Sanchez (or Jesse Biddle) to the Rays as the centerpiece of a David Price trade. In fact they could forego Hanson and try to target both Tanaka and Price!

 

Toronto Blue Jays –

 

The Blue Jays end up using their farm system to acquire some of the pieces they need to contend in 2014, especially in light of the major upgrade moves they made prior to 2013. Toronto gives up two one-year MLB rental players, some cash, and four prospects in exchange for three controllable MLB players.

 

Acquiring Howie Kendrick impacts their middle infield tremendously and he is an offensive-minded hitter in a hitter-friendly ballpark. The potential compensatory pick has additional value for the Jays.

 

Chris Iannetta would become the backup catcher to Josh Thole, creating a nice catching platoon for the Blue Jays. Chris has a reasonably priced, two-year contract which is a good fit for the Blue Jays current window of contention.

 

Jake Diekman gives Toronto a pretty good left-handed back-end bullpen guy who is more of a groundball pitcher in a homer-friendly ballpark which is a plus.

 

The Blue Jays end up taking on a little over $8 million in salary for the 2014 season which is a reasonable increase for their team payroll. They will have to kick in about $3.3 million to the Angels as well (probably paying most of Janssen’s salary) to help balance out the total trade. It still gives them room to target a starting pitcher in trade.

 

Conclusion:

 

Although this was a fun thought exercise it does show what some extreme creativity can do to improve a team.

 

Most trades are done on a much smaller scale to add one or two pieces at a time but once in a while you get a monster trade that can completely reshape a team’s outlook (Pre-2013 Blue Jays) or season (2013 Dodgers and Red Sox!).

 

This trade would rely on the willingness of the Phillies to move Cliff Lee and his massive salary and the Blue Jays to give up two of their top pitching prospects. However both teams intend to compete next season, especially the Jays, so there is a motivation factor on all sides that could make this a possible reality.

[Glen]

Best title ever.

[mtangelsfan]

Yeah, that my not be my dream of best three-way ever.

[SoWhat]

Good effort, but no. Jays would be giving up way too much in this trade for an average second baseman and back up catcher.

[Spirit]

Best title ever.

 

 

Glen is going through some self loathing right now for never having come up with that title before. 

[Brandon]

My first thought is I dream a little higher.

[Angel Oracle]

Kate Beckensale and Isla Fisher =   locking thread

[HaloCory22]

Good job on the creativity, but I don't think Toronto is getting nearly enough for what they're giving up.

[HaloCory22]

Also, Emmanuelle Chriqui and Alice Eve. Entourage three way.

[ettin]

Good job on the creativity, but I don't think Toronto is getting nearly enough for what they're giving up.

 

I think the subject of Kendrick's value is an interesting one and I'd like to get more input about it.

 

In my projection I'm seeing him at about 3.4 WAR in 2014 and 2.90 in 2015, when he becomes a free agent. His WAR projection for 2016 is about 2.4.

 

A couple of things to explain my reasoning: 3.4 WAR out of the 2nd base position in the first year has a bit of added value in my opinion (if you believe my number). Also when Howie's contract is up it is quite likely that he will receive a Qualifying Offer (which will be close to $16 million at that time). The QO would net the Blue Jays a compensatory draft pick after the 1st round. This draft pick has definite value in my opinion.

 

Considering that Howie's contract is on the team-friendly side I pegged his rough surplus value, based on WAR and adjustments for the scarcity of a 3+WAR player (2014 only) and QO, at about $23 million.

 

I guess what I am saying is that people look at Howie and say "meh" or "We can't trade him!" or something in between but I feel that he is an underappreciated player in terms of overall value and that is why I put him at what he's at.

 

There is a fine line here. In my hypothetical the Jays are giving up one year of a closer (relievers are really not worth much period) and getting rid of a potential non-tender (Arencibia) and four prospects, two of which are projected relievers. Really the value that they are losing lies mainly with the two top pitching prospects. In return they are getting two, controlable MLB players plus another reliever to replace the one they lost (Carreno).

 

To be honest Cory when I was doing this evaluation I initially thought the same thing as you but then I really looked closer. Yes they are losing a lot of names but most of them are not impactful ones except for Sanchez and Stroman (and Janssen too probably but he was/is a short-timer on their team anyway).

 

Edit: Also one other thing to consider is the Jay's window of contention. They pushed all in last year and they still have most of those pieces for the next 2 years. Now is a time that they need to act and adding Howie and Iannetta will give them a chance to succeed in 2014. That may be worth the loss of Sanchez and Stroman.

Edited October 31, 2013 by ettin

[Brandon]

Also, Emmanuelle Chriqui and Alice Eve. Entourage three way.

Just ran trough the IMDB for old times sake. You could have a field day with everyone that was on Entourage.

[gotbeer]

It would be funny if this trade did go through, and Trout joined Trumbo in 4 years.  

[mrwicked]

whether the trade is actually doable or not, thumbs up for the effort here.

that was a non-trivial amount of work to put that all together.

[HaloCory22]

Just ran trough the IMDB for old times sake. You could have a field day with everyone that was on Entourage.

Here is a list of the top 100 girls to be on Entourage.

 

http://m.brobible.com/girls/article/13158932-100-hottest-women-entourage

[Brent Maguire]

Good work!

 

I do think the Jays are giving up quite a bit but the other teams aren't giving up nothing either. I would love to get Lee. 

[Angel Oracle]

Even Glee is represented (Jayma Mays) in Entourage's top 100 ladies.

Edited October 31, 2013 by Angel Oracle

[SoWhat]

I'd love to get Lee, but the front of the rotation is already getting up there in age. I'd rather use the trade chips on a guy who has the potential to replace Wilson or Weaver at the front in a few years when those two go into major decline.

Edited October 31, 2013 by SoWhat

[ten ocho recon scout]

I'd love to get Lee, but the front of the rotation is already getting up there in age. I'd rather use the trade chips on a guy who has the potential to replace Wilson or Weaver at the front in a few years when those two go into major decline.

We all would. Problem is we don't have those types of trade pieces.

I've been on board for targetting Lee for awhile now. His salary is ehat makes him seemingly attainable. If we agree to take it on, it shouldn't 'cost' as much in trade pieces.

Lee would give us an above average front end arm for a few years while we hopefully develop a few more in the minors through the draft.

[mtangelsfan]

By the way, if my wife sees this thread.  My dream of a three way has nothing to do with sex...........................

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

is she gone yet?

[Agalloch]

My dream of a three way involves Taylor Swift and Jennifer Morrison, this would be nice too though.

[tdawg87]

So we give up the least amount of talent, yet get the most in return?

 

Sweet!

[wopphil]

Kate Beckensale and Isla Fisher =   locking thread

 

If it is Isla Fisher back in her Wedding Crashers day, this could be an ideal three-way.  Kate Beckensale could be the most amazingly beautiful woman in the world. 

[IEAngelsfan]

Kate Beckensale could be the most amazingly beautiful woman in the world. 

The only reason why I watch the movie "Van Helsing" over and over again.

[beatlesrule]

I don't think Beckensale is all that.  She kind of has an overbite.  Jessica Alba and Scarlett Johansson are much hotter IMO.

[AngelsAndRamsFan]

My dream of a three way involves Taylor Swift and Jennifer Morrison, this would be nice too though.

Taylor Swift?? She's probably terrible in bed.