Future pitching

[Angel Oracle]

I'm just curious to see the progression of those nearly 40 pitchers taken in the 2013 draft. One would hope that, over time, at least say 7 of them make the big leagues and have at least some success. And those 7 aren't all traded away!

Edited October 5, 2013 by Angel Oracle

[wopphil]

If only two or three have big league careers lasting 5 years, the draft will still have been a success.

[gotbeer]

If only two or three have big league careers lasting 5 years, the draft will still have been a success.

 

Which on AW.com will be interpreted as, if 2 or 3 aren't #1 starters/aces, the draft will be a failure.

[shellback]

at least they drafted to address need and not for atheletic ability or some bs

[Lou]

At least 7 pitchers from the same draft? 

 

Be prepared to be disappointed

[Angel Oracle]

I didn't say All-Star caliber, just at least some success. Seven out of nearly 40 isn't out of the realm of possibility. Maybe closer to 3-4 out of that nearly 40 is to be normally expected.

Edited October 5, 2013 by Angel Oracle

[James]

No wonder you are always pissed off at the organization with those kind of expectations. 

[eaterfan]

I didn't say All-Star caliber, just at least some success. Seven out of nearly 40 isn't out of the realm of possibility. Maybe closer to 3-4 out of that nearly 40 is to be normally expected.

 

Is this true? What percentage of even 3rd round picks ever make the majors? 

[shellback]

if one makes it to the big club that draft was worth it.

[AngelsFaninGA]

I'm hoping at least one of these guys becomes a reliable #4 starter or middle reliever, though even that might be asking for too much.

[Blarg]

I didn't say All-Star caliber, just at least some success. Seven out of nearly 40 isn't out of the realm of possibility. Maybe closer to 3-4 out of that nearly 40 is to be normally expected.

 

The math just isn't there to support your expectations. 1238 players drafted, and that doesn't include guys picked up in foreign free agency and only about 1 to 2 a season see a year in the big leagues and you expect one draft to reap 7 pitchers making it.

 

in 2012 the Angels drafted 17 pitchers of which the highest ranked was picked at 114 the last 1167. They brought up Michael Roth (pick #297) this season. He was what you wanted, a college pitcher, and you saw the results. It really doesn't matter how may guys you grab, it is complete luck when they drop past the 2nd round and further. The Angels in 2012 had their first pick slotted 19th in the 3rd round. We may be lucky to get one, maybe two arms from that class make the majors and stay.

[Lou]

Even if  4 make it that would mean that 10 percent of those drafted would make it to the majors.

Do you honestly believe that the norm?

[jshep]

I'm just curious why AO chose 7.

[tdawg87]

Even if  4 make it that would mean that 10 percent of those drafted would make it to the majors.

Do you honestly believe that the norm?

 

It is, actually.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/one-in-six-draft-picks-will-click/

 

Certainly the Angels' draft position could bring that number down, but everyone is bagging on AO for having ridiculous expectations, when those expectations are not as high as everyone is saying.

[shellback]

lets all character assassinate AO!

[Angel Oracle]

I'm just curious why AO chose 7.

My lucky number

Maybe the term "some success" is too variable.

Edited October 5, 2013 by Angel Oracle

[shellback]

My lucky number

Maybe the term "some success" is too variable.

 

we deal in exact, real numbers here on AW.

[Lou]

I believe AO's credibility in this thread was questioned as soon as he stated we drafted "nearly 40 pitchers.

 

We drafted 39 players in the last draft -- 22 of which were pitchers and one of those didn't sign.

 

With those numbers, AO expects 1/3 of those pitchers to make it to the majors for him to be happy.

 

fyi, 4 of those weren't in the top 1100 players drafted. 

[eaterfan]

It is, actually.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/one-in-six-draft-picks-will-click/

 

Certainly the Angels' draft position could bring that number down, but everyone is bagging on AO for having ridiculous expectations, when those expectations are not as high as everyone is saying.

 

 

"The 3YRS column attempts to quantify how many of those big leaguers would be classified as regular contributors based on the length of big league tenure. The thresholds here are high—and scaled to approximate three years of service: 450 games for position players and for pitchers either 75 decisions (starters) or 150 games (relievers).

Here again the rate for three-year big leaguers follows a natural descending pattern, beginning at 39 percent for first-round picks and tapering down to 1.6 percent for those selected after the 20th round. All told, about one in 20 signed draft picks (5.5 percent) will spend the equivalent of three seasons in the big leagues."

 

 

Some success is variable but I think most of us who disagreed were thinking along the lines of a solid contributor or what they define as a regular player for about 3 years or more. Similar to what WOPPHIL said. If 1/20 of our 40 picks become solid contributors that is 2 not 4 or even close to 7. 

 

The article doesn't separate position players from pitchers either but I have seen studies on prospects (not draft picks) that pitching prospects flame out even more than position players. If the same applies to draft picks I think we would be pretty average if we got a Garrett Richards and Ernesto Frieri from this draft.

Edited October 5, 2013 by eaterfan

[Angel Oracle]

Okay, the number was 39 overall picks, of which 22 were pitchers. It's not as far fetched as some may think though, that 3 or 4 of those 22 could end up with at least some success. Other orgs are able to have those kind of drafts from time to time, although not on a regular basis.

Nonetheless, the point of the thread was to begin to see how those 22 pitchers progress over the next 2-4 years on the farm.

Edited October 5, 2013 by Angel Oracle

[Lou]

You probably should have said that then instead of :

 

" One would hope that, over time, at least say 7 of them make the big leagues and have at least some success. "

 

[Broad Street]

Jesus, enough with the arguing about what the percentage is. Let's get back to the original question on how they're progressing. Does anyone have that answer? Scott?

[ettin]

we deal in exact, real numbers here on AW.

 

Yes and when we do use exact, real numbers they eventually get ridiculed.

[ettin]

Here is a list from A-ball: http://www.fangraphs.com/minorleaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=1&season=2013&team=51&players=0&sort=1,a

 

Krehbiel, DeLoach, Crowley, Santos, O'Grady, Sporner, Keudel, and Efferson all had pretty good numbers and/or peripherals. Of course this is just the A baller's and it is A ball so take it with a grain of salt. Also note I'm not sure if all of those were drafted in the last draft.

[ettin]

Here is the Rookie ball list too: http://www.fangraphs.com/minorleaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=1&season=2013&team=176&players=0&sort=1,a

 

I'd take a lot of these with a grain of salt as most of the drafted players only had a limited number of appearances. Better to see what they do in a full season next year.

Edited October 6, 2013 by ettin