Erick Aybar is replaceable

[Docwaukee]

There has been quite a bit of reluctance to trade Aybar due to the perceived difficulty in replacing him.

 

As we know, he is a classic hacker with a very low OBP and a little pop.  He makes good contact, has good speed, can steal bases at a decent clip and plays very good and sometimes spectacular defense. 

 

The theory is that as a 3-4 win player and very little minor league depth (if any) as well as a very limited FA pool, it wouldn't be worth giving him up for a starting pitcher due to a substantial drop off to his replacement. 

 

Even as solid as his overall numbers are as a SS, after watching him play day in and day out I sometimes fail to see that he's providing the value that some of the numbers indicate. 

 

After reviewing a few additional metrics, it made a little more sense as to what I might be seeing - or not seeing.

 

His total WAR from 2009 to current is 14.1 which ranks him 8th with an average of about 3 WAR per season. 

 

Looking at a couple of other things like RE24 and WPA. 

his RE24 is -19.13, 24th

his WPA is -1.91, 21st

 

WPA take leverage into account and RE24 is context neutral.  Both of these stats have him contributing -2 wins over the last 5 years.  Of course these are event logs and not position sensitive, but the overall ranking relative to other SS is a bit telling I think. 

 

His wRC+ is 97 which ranks him 12th.

 

fangraphs FLD stat has him ranked 24th

 

his BsR (from fangraphs as well) ranks him 4th.

 

USR/150 is 0.4 good for 11th

 

DRS is 2 total.  Tied for 10th.

 

The FA market for SS is pretty thin no doubt, but someone like a Stephen Drew, who I haven't seen play much, may provide adequate production in Aybar's place as his general rankings in each of the above categories is similar if not better.

The point of this exercise is not to bash Erick Aybar.  He's a solid player and by all accounts a leader in the clubhouse so he probably bring value in other areas.  I am just proposing that his production and value are more replaceable than we might believe, and if you can get the most for him vs. anyone else on the trade market ie a potential #2 starter, you have to consider that option. 

[Inside Pitch]

Honest question and not smarmy rhetoric.   Where does his salary rank?

 

Edit: Found the info.  http://data.newsday.com/long-island/data/baseball/mlb-salaries-2013/?fieldSelect-position=Shortstop

 

Surprised to see Drew making more than Aybar.

Edited September 9, 2013 by Inside Pitch

[NrM]

He's definitely having a down year, but he has a club friendly contract and we don't have a replacement for him. The Angels should look to trade Trumbo, kendrick, bourjos and calhoun first.

[FireThemAll]

Don't trade him now - his value is at an all time low. Trade Kendrick and one of Bourjos/Trumbo this offseason for a starter under club control. Next offseason we can possibly look to deal Aybar for more pitching if the org. finds a replacement, or if Stamets/Rondon start progressing fast.

[SoWhat]

Drew has good numbers vs. RHP, but horrible against LHP. What about a platoon at SS?

[mp170.6]

I've never heard of Aybar being a clubhouse leader before.

 

In any case, guys like him -- all talent and no brains -- are never long for MLB.  Once those fast legs and quick hands start eroding with age, Aybar has no secondary skills to lean on to sustain his career.  How many guys of his mold ever make it past age 33-35 in MLB?  Very few.  Chone Figgins would be Exhibit A in this category.

 

So if you're going to trade Aybar at all, it needs be sooner rather than later.  His value can't improve that much. 

[FireThemAll]

You guys want to rush to trade a usual 4 WAR player that is having a terrible year? Why not give him another season? If he plays well next year you can trade him for much more. I don't see the upside of trading him now.

[gotbeer]

The plus is his contract is affordable.  I'm just afraid of what we will have at SS if he gets traded.  

 

But after saying that.  With Jeter turning to absolute glass.  Makes me wonder what the Yankees would give for him.  

 

This is similar to the Trumbo, Bourjos, Kendrick, Calhoun, Shuck, Cowgill and anyone else that is a possible trade candidate.  If above value is offered, you have to listen, and if a team gets desperate like the Yanks might, you might be able to fleece them.  But if equal or lower value is offered, then you just wait and keep what you have.

[Hollyw00d]

It's not easy to replace 3+ WAR shortstops. I know he hasn't been that this season, but he has been for the past several seasons now.

I agree that now isn't the right time to trade him. He's having the worst season he's had since his rookie year. We would definitely be selling low

[Docwaukee]

I don't think anyone really wants to trade anyone of our everyday players and frankly, they don't totally have to.  It's just the best option for upgrading the pitching staff which would result in greater team production. 

 

I know it's nit picky, but I think it lends to the perception that Aybar is more difficult to replace than he is, but even though he's had three seasons of nearly 4 WAR, he's had the same number of seasons at 2 WAR or so.  ie, he's not a 4 WAR but a 3 WAR SS.  Which, granted, is still solid, but a bunch of the also rans are in the 1.5-2 range.  So losing 1 win at SS when it allows you to get a club controlled #2 is a reasonable price to pay. 

 

It really depends on what Kendrick bring you as both he and Aybar are of similar value at their respective positions relative to the rest of the league.  There are likely better options to replace Howie, but his trade value is probably less.  It's all about the delta. 

 

Also, I agree that if you get 2 WAR SS value for Aybar, then you just keep him. 

[mancini79]

He's definitely having a down year, but he has a club friendly contract and we don't have a replacement for him. The Angels should look to trade Trumbo, kendrick, bourjos and calhoun first.

 

Crap, this might be the first thing we agree on. Well done sir.

[Tyler]

If this team wanted to trade Aybar, then it would be real edgy if they let Romine take over. Bane always raved about his defense and I think given his plate discipline that he could match Aybar's OBP at a fraction of the cost if awarded the starting role.

[Docwaukee]

If this team wanted to trade Aybar, then it would be real edgy if they let Romine take over. Bane always raved about his defense and I think given his plate discipline that he could match Aybar's OBP at a fraction of the cost if awarded the starting role.

If Romine's defense is really as good as billed, he might be able to make up for some of the lost offense with that, speed and OBP.  Imagine the left sided IF defense with him and lucho there.  The bottom of the lineup would be pretty weak, but we have Trout.

[YouthofToday]

Jimenez is not a starting 3B for a team with playoff aspirations.

If trading Aybar prevents the manager from batting him at the top of the order then so be it. Can we please throw in the manager's new pet, Shuck, in the trade too? I really fear the manager will start and bat him leadoff next year too.

Edited September 9, 2013 by YouthofToday

[Tyler]

It would definitely be weak hitting as Romine has Shuck-type power, but he would be an inexpensive stopgap until Stamets is ready--even though I'm not as high in him as others. Segura would have been nice. lol

[Spencer]

I really like Romine's attitude.

He also came up with Jimenez, which could translate into a strong left side of the infield (communication, overall defensive performance), and I like the fact that he's a little older.

More experience, even if it's at the minor league level, is a plus for a guy who isn't going to be a long-term solution at the position.

Aybar is super duper expendable.

Great defense, average to below average offense, and an absolute dumbshit on the basepaths.

Romine might bring 80-110% of what Aybar does, minus the bunting skills and decensive ceiling. At least the guy knows how to take a walk.

For a position that isn't exactly a premium offensive one, I'm fine with seeing a guy like Romine take over, if trading Aybar gets us a #2/#3 or #4+reliever in return

[Angel Oracle]

Agreed that it's better to hope for a really solid 2014, and then Aybar's still a desirable trade target with 2 seasons left on contract.

By then, Stamets could potentially be ready, or Rondon may only need another 1.5 seasons at that point and thus a short term replacement for Aybar would be fine.

[Angelsjunky]

I can live with Jimenez and Romine at the bottom of the order for a year. I think Field could be a sleeper and a strong back-up at both positions.

 

The Angels have some solid trade chips in Kendrick, Aybar, Trumbo, Bourjos, and Calhoun. Who gets traded depends upon who comes calling. But if any of them can net either an established #2-3 starter or a young potential #2, you've got to go for it. What would be great is if some combination of the above, perhaps with a prospect or two thrown in, could get someone like David Price.

 

That said, we probably won't see Kendrick AND Aybar traded as a lineup including Jimenez, Romine, and Green might be a bit riskier than the Angels are willing to go.

[Angel Oracle]

And it's hard to break in a new 3/4 of an IF in the same season.

[Guest]

Yeah, we should bench/trade him and start Tommy Field instead.

Edited September 9, 2013 by failos

[Troll Daddy]

You can make a case for any player being replaceable ... even Mike Trout.

[wopphil]

I would really like to see both Aybar and Kendrick retained, though I recognize both have value and are some of the few trade chips we actually have. 

 

My preference would be to trade Trumbo or Bourjos.  Calhoun looks like at least an average major league player, so one of Bourjos/Trumbo is expendable.  I have to believe Trumbo could net us a good pitching prospect or young 3/4 guy under similar club control (2 or 3 years left; a Bud Norris type). 

[Make Angels Great Again]

Looking at their minor league numbers, there doesn't seem to be a big difference between Stamets, Rondon, and Romine.

 

All 3 have extremely close slash lines. I guess Rondon has the most potential because of his age, but he is still at an extremely low level, he's only in Orem and could turn out to be nothing. Is defense the only thing we can look at? Because we've already seen that Romine has exceptional defense, with his quick and smooth hands.

[rageous]

Looking at their minor league numbers, there doesn't seem to be a big difference between Stamets, Rondon, and Romine.

 

All 3 have extremely close slash lines. I guess Rondon has the most potential because of his age, but he is still at an extremely low level, he's only in Orem and could turn out to be nothing. Is defense the only thing we can look at? Because we've already seen that Romine has exceptional defense, with his quick and smooth hands.

I think they need to give Romine an every day playing time for the rest of the year and determine if Aybar can be replaced.

[AngelsLakersFan]

I rarely disagree with you Doc, but here is one case.

 

Thinking of the situation logically, we would be trading a shortstop to a team in need of a shortstop, presumably because their either a) can't get one elsewhere or are getting a good deal.

 

This in turn leaves the Angels without a shortstop, and in the same shoes as the team we dealt Aybar to had been.

 

Romine is not a solution to this ultimate problem. He is at best a backup and probably a lesser option at short than Jerome Williams is as the 5th starter.