WTF is with this bleeping weather?

[Angels_Make_Me_Drink]

Don't worry, we'll get plenty of nuclear rain when we go to war with Russia and North Korea when Trump is POTUS. 

[Angel Dog and Beer]

Forecasted precipitation thru 1/24, as you can see NCal is getting the brunt of it.  At least some portions of the state are getting wet.

 

 

 

AO,  I copied the following from an El Nino/weather thread on a surfing website, which a poster explains a bit about the recent storms and not to be alarmed (yet) about the recent run of lackluster rain in SCal. Hope you find it interesting:

 

"The exact cause of the mini ridge's >persistence< is beyond the scope of my understanding. I do know it's NOT at all related to the RRR. It's also interesting to note that the storms expected to impact Cen/Nor Cal are not forecast to be guided in by the subtropical jet, but rather the polar jet (at least per the GFS and CMC models). The storms we saw during early Jan were indeed guided in by the subtropical jet, while the polar jet was split way off over Canada (a classic El Nino set-up). Nonetheless, the surf looks to be really good. In terms of size, consistency, and conditions. We'll have to see what happens during the next few weeks.

As I mentioned in an earlier post, daily rainfall records for the city of Santa Barbara showed that there were 7-14+ day dry spells (i.e little to no rainfall) during Jan-Apr of both the 1982-83 and 1997-98 El Nino events (the same held true for other strong El Nino enhanced Winters). Mar 1983, and Feb 1998 were the exception, only seeing a few 4-6 day dry spells. However, Jan 1982 saw an 18 day dry spell and March 1997 1998 saw a 24 day dry spell (seeing less than a half inch during that time). So, as much as want/need it, if we don't see any real precip until late Jan/early Feb, it wouldn't be that unusual (at least that's my opinion). If we go more than 3 to 3.5 weeks without any rainfall, then I'll start to worry. The main difference between this event and other strong events that were associated with wet Winters is the lack of any real precursor precip during Fall. However, that could be made up for with a few strong precip events as it wasn't that much, but it does standout.

Here are the official daily rainfall records for the city of SB dating back to 1899: http://cosb.countyofsb.org/pwd/water/downloads/hydro/234dailys.pdf

The slowly fading WWB and associated impacts on equatorial Pacific SST and subsurface temps will at least keep this event above NOAA's somewhat arbitrary "strong" threshold of +1.5 deg C in the Nino 3.4 region for 3-4 weeks longer than it otherwise would've, which increases the probability of precip chances further into the Winter/Spring season".

Edited January 15, 2016 by Angel Dog and Beer

[Angel Oracle]

Thanks AD&B

 

What is with these constant ridges of high pressure?    

It's never been this persistent for sooo long before.    Going on FIVE freaking years now? 

 

What happened to the pineapple express from early in the month?   It sure petered out fast.

Is this a PERMANENT weather pattern now?    If so, good bye SoCal water.   The lakes/resorvoirs will all be drying up at this rate.

Edited January 15, 2016 by Angel Oracle

[Homebrewer]

That map shows my area, the central sierra getting the most.

We have been in a "rain at night" pattern lately which I find most pleasant indeed.

Lots of snow being dumped on the Sierra Crest....and chain requirements start about 10 miles up the highway.

Perfect

[nate]

brr

 

[Angel Oracle]

The latest So Cal projected accuweather forecast through March 2 shows very little rain.

Like I said earlier....DROUGHT NOT OVER and never will be over!!!!

[Homebrewer]

raining hard up here AO...really coming down.

[Adam]

The latest So Cal projected accuweather forecast through March 2 shows very little rain.

Like I said earlier....DROUGHT NOT OVER and never will be over!!!!

 

Lets Celebrate!

[Angel Oracle]

Celebrate, on brown golf courses from lack of water.

 

February's prediction via accuweather = generally under an inch TOTAL.

 

So while 2/3 of the state is back in a normal weather pattern, SoCal completes year 5 of the Drought With No End In Sight.

[gotbeer]

It was supposed to rain today.  I cancelled my golf reservations.  It did not rain.

 

Who's fault?  AO's. 

[Angel Oracle]

NOAA = The Hackilton of weather research.

What was that about predicting above average rainfall throughout SoCal for the Jan-March period?   

Your prediction is tanking like the Sixers NBA team.

Edited January 18, 2016 by Angel Oracle

[fan_since79]

The mild nights are most welcome.

 

Low 50's, very comfortable. No 35-degree mornings.

[Adam]

Winter is bullshit

[Adam]

More like El Failo!

Saw a good one on Facebook

El No Show

[Amazing Larry]

brr

So do you just let the dogs pee in the house in those conditions or what?

[nate]

Nope, they have fur, they don't even seem to be bothered, I have to yell at them to come in.

[Hollyw00d]

My sister has a huge chow and it loves the snow

[Vegas Halo Fan]

Zero when I landed at O'Hare last night and -2 when we took off. I could see my breath in the jetway. No thanks.

[Tank]

more like El ni-NO.

[Redondo]

What happened to El Niño? Be patient, L.A., it'll come, expert says

[fan_since79]

Just took a glance at the 10-day.

 

7% chance of rain on Saturday, expected to be around 0.01 inches. Other than that, bone dry.

[Angel Oracle]

What happened to El Niño? Be patient, L.A., it'll come, expert says

I saw that earlier this morning.

What happens if the current high pressure to the southwest is another stupid resilient high pressure ridge not leaving for months?

What is with all of these resilient high pressure ridges over the past 5 years?

Climate change?

But of course people like Lifetime would laugh at any notion of climate change. Did that guy ever change his opinion on anything?

[gotbeer]

Supposed to rain today.  Probably like it was supposed to rain yesterday.

 

I will water my drought plants today.

[Adam]

Sunny and 70's next week!

[Blarg]

Sunny and in the 70's with a little less than an 8% chance of Cespedes by the end of the week.