Angels pitching prospects Ranked 4th by MLB pipeline

[Ron Mexico]

 

[Angelsjunky]

I don't see where they rank the pitching 4th, but obviously that doesn't compute. I mean, if the pitching is 4th and the hitting is 30th, (4 + 30) /2 = 17. Of course they could use a scoring system so 30th could be so bad that it averages out to 29th, but it isn't that bad.

Or is it?

[totdprods]

I think it’s twofold…

one, the Angels pitching prospect depth is becoming really solid. Maybe not a bunch of stars, but it’s looking like there will be sufficient depth for the pen, the bulk of the rotation, rotation depth, and some to even trade. It’s not so much from ceiling, but quantity.

two, the hitting prospect pool is just exceptionally thin, and I think even most of the ‘stronger’ prospects grade out at being bench, platoon or utility guys. I don’t see any safe everyday players yet amongst guys like Rada, Flores, Fontenelle, Placencia, etc., Moore excluded.

It’s sort of the inverse. Angels are building a bunch of left, ‘safe’, MLB-ready pitching depth, maybe without ‘star’ power but at least a couple bankable rotation and bullpen fixtures, whereas the hitters are few and far-between, with likeliest scenario being it produces some 4th OFs, a good back-up catcher or two, a utility infielder.

So yeah, in short, it’s because it’s ’that bad’, for now. Trade-off is at least three guys who would change that are instead producing in the lineup in Neto, Schanuel and O’Hoppe.

Edited October 7 by totdprods

[Angelsjunky]

1 hour ago, totdprods said:

I think it’s twofold…

one, the Angels pitching prospect depth is becoming really solid. Maybe not a bunch of stars, but it’s looking like there will be sufficient depth for the pen, the bulk of the rotation, rotation depth, and some to even trade. It’s not so much from ceiling, but quantity.

two, the hitting prospect pool is just exceptionally thin, and I think even most of the ‘stronger’ prospects grade out at being bench, platoon or utility guys. I don’t see any safe everyday players yet amongst guys like Rada, Flores, Fontenelle, Placencia, etc., Moore excluded.

It’s sort of the inverse. Angels are building a bunch of left, ‘safe’, MLB-ready pitching depth, maybe without ‘star’ power but at least a couple bankable rotation and bullpen fixtures, whereas the hitters are few and far-between, with likeliest scenario being it produces some 4th OFs, a good back-up catcher or two, a utility infielder.

So yeah, in short, it’s because it’s ’that bad’, for now. Trade-off is at least three guys who would change that are instead producing in the lineup in Neto, Schanuel and O’Hoppe.

I agree with all that, but still don't think it explains the math, such as it is.

But yeah, the hitting is atrocious. Or rather, we're like in the fifth (or whatever) year in a row in which there's hope in the low minors, but that's all it is - and it doesn't really manifest into anything, aside from a few players. 

I sort of see that trend beginning with Deveaux/Knowles, and then becoming more noticeable with the Vera group. Actually, it really goes back to Roberto Baldoquin and thus 2015. Curse of Baldoquin?

So it was Baldoquin, then Deveaux/Knowles, then that larger crop of Vera/Placencia/Bonilla/etc, with Maitan thrown in. Then we had Alex Ramirez, Guzman, Blakely, and now Rada/JeJesus, with Joswa Lugo next in line. It would be nice if some of these guys turned into something. Anything!

[Angelsjunky]

And yes, Moore looks to be the only minor league hitter who is likely to be a major league regular. If Fontenelle comes back healthy, he has a chance. But then you have to go down to the lower minors, for which it is too soon to tell: Rada (I know, AA, but he feels low minors), DeJesus, Ramirez, Foster, maybe Placencia, Laverde, etc. While there's upside there, there's not yet enough to go on to think any of them are likely to be major league regulars.

My hope is that a few of these guys emerge in 2025 and enter the "likely zone." But I've hoping that for more than half a decade.

[totdprods]

46 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

And yes, Moore looks to be the only minor league hitter who is likely to be a major league regular. If Fontenelle comes back healthy, he has a chance. But then you have to go down to the lower minors, for which it is too soon to tell: Rada (I know, AA, but he feels low minors), DeJesus, Ramirez, Foster, maybe Placencia, Laverde, etc. While there's upside there, there's not yet enough to go on to think any of them are likely to be major league regulars.

My hope is that a few of these guys emerge in 2025 and enter the "likely zone." But I've hoping that for more than half a decade.

I still think Fontenelle is probably suited for a 1B/3B role, like Wagaman was filling, or Quinlan in elder days. Which is fine. 

It’s honestly not a bad thing if guys like Fontenelle becomes a back-up corners guy, Rada a good 4th OF, Kavadas a platoon DH, Guzman a UT IF…one of our biggest problems of the last decade is that we had a hard time capably replacing bench players with guys we developed internally, guys who didn’t have to be great, just needed to be close to league-average and, IMO, had options and years of cost-control for the club.

It’s really hard to maintain that fringe depth with minor league signings because those guys 1) aren’t very good as is but 2) immediately become susceptible to waivers as rosters fluctuate, and it leads to the org holding onto them longer than they should because they don’t have the org depth to risk losing them to waivers (or them refusing an outright) or 3) the opposite, losing them to waivers and outright assignments…and then again needing to replace those fringe 4A guys with minor league FAs and waiver claims, which takes us back to 1), those players not being very good…

It would be really great if we had a couple guys on the 40 in the outfield, infield, and a third-catcher (when was the last time we had a catcher we could recall over and over again?) who had options, who could be banked on to be that depth for 1-3 years, and who were club-controlled. They don’t even have to be great - just not horrible. League-average. 0 WAR guys. Just nothing negative.

If you see guys like Rada, Flint, Fontenelle, Flores, Redfield, Guzman, Placencia favorably enough to think they can at least hit that mark - then we’re not in bad shape.

[Hubs]

Moore, Rada, Guzman, Fontanelle and Matthew Lugo are the only top 30 prospects above A ball. 

Moore will be in SLC or Rocket City to start the year.

Guzman and Rada will likely repeat AA in 2025 as they looked overmatched and are both young for AA.... Fontanelle probably starts there, but he will be in AAA before the season ends, if not the majors. Lugo starts in AAA.

They have literally no one else that will be in Anaheim within 2-3 years. 

All of the systems depth is pitching. Even though they rank 4th in pitching, they still rank close to last because other than these 5 guys, who else is even close to being a major league hitter? That means this system is so lowly ranked in position players, it would bring the entire system down to the high 20's.

 

[Angelsjunky]

33 minutes ago, totdprods said:

I still think Fontenelle is probably suited for a 1B/3B role, like Wagaman was filling, or Quinlan in elder days. Which is fine. 

It’s honestly not a bad thing if guys like Fontenelle becomes a back-up corners guy, Rada a good 4th OF, Kavadas a platoon DH, Guzman a UT IF…one of our biggest problems of the last decade is that we had a hard time capably replacing bench players with guys we developed internally, guys who didn’t have to be great, just needed to be close to league-average and, IMO, had options and years of cost-control for the club.

It’s really hard to maintain that fringe depth with minor league signings because those guys 1) aren’t very good as is but 2) immediately become susceptible to waivers as rosters fluctuate, and it leads to the org holding onto them longer than they should because they don’t have the org depth to risk losing them to waivers (or them refusing an outright) or 3) the opposite, losing them to waivers and outright assignments…and then again needing to replace those fringe 4A guys with minor league FAs and waiver claims, which takes us back to 1), those players not being very good…

It would be really great if we had a couple guys on the 40 in the outfield, infield, and a third-catcher (when was the last time we had a catcher we could recall over and over again?) who had options, who could be banked on to be that depth for 1-3 years, and who were club-controlled. They don’t even have to be great - just not horrible. League-average. 0 WAR guys. Just nothing negative.

If you see guys like Rada, Flint, Fontenelle, Flores, Redfield, Guzman, Placencia favorably enough to think they can at least hit that mark - then we’re not in bad shape.

Yep, though we still need a couple guys to be impact players. We don't need Trouts, but we do need a few Salmons. A few Salmons and then a lineup filled out with Wards and Rengifos, plus a deep bench = a really good hitting side of the team.

2025 feels like a big year in the long-term. Meaning, not whether or not they're contending but if the franchise is going in a positive direction. I'm looking primarily at two things:

1. How well the current crop of youngsters develop. That is, to what degree guys like Neto, O'Hoppe, Schanuel, and Adell take a step forward. 

2. How the position players in the low minors develop - particularly guys like Rada, DeJesus, Foster, Ramirez, etc.

If both are largely positive, I think the franchise is clearly on the upswing. If not, then we could be swirling around the toilet for a few more years.

A third factor is the pitching as a whole, but like MLB.com, I'm mostly optimistic about the overall trend and think it is going to get better year over year as guys like Kochanowicz, Dana, Aldeghiri and Klassen develop - and whether or not Detmers can figure his shit out. 

I say this because if it is clearly the team is getting better and the youth movement is working, the Angels could be buyers--and potential contenders--in 2026. But 2025 really needs to be another "wait and see" year. IMO.

Edited October 7 by Angelsjunky

[Angelsjunky]

Oh, and I want to shout out to David Mershon as a potential solid bench piece. Really like that kid and think he's going to be a fan favorite.

[totdprods]

1 hour ago, Angelsjunky said:

Yep, though we still need a couple guys to be impact players. We don't need Trouts, but we do need a few Salmons. A few Salmons and then a lineup filled out with Wards and Rengifos, plus a deep bench = a really good hitting side of the team.

I think we just need Trout to stay healthy and have a deeper bench/AAA depth. 

I honestly don’t think O’Hoppe, Rengifo/Moore, Neto, Rendon, Ward, Moniak, Adell and Trout is a bad nine at all, and we have all those guys (except Rengifo) through 2026 - and after that, only Ward and Rendon drop off.

Trout needs to stay healthy and we just need competent layered depth.

We had 14 players make 1676 PA that generated -6 WAR. Brandon Drury was -2 WAR. We essentially gave three Brandon Drurys 560 PA.

Keep Trout healthy by moving him to DH/RF, our Adell and Moniak in CF platoon, keep Ward in LF for now, and sign a fairly legit OF/DH guy like Teoscar, O’Neill or Santander, and sign/trade for someone who can cover at least two of 2B, SS and 3B (IKF, Moncada, Farmer, Dejong, Rosario, Gorman). Trust that some combo of Rendon, Rengifo and Moore can stay healthy and productive. 

I think this draft is supposed to be a little hitter-heavy too. 

[tdawg87]

Let's draft 20 hitters.

[Angelsjunky]

3 hours ago, tdawg87 said:

Let's draft 20 hitters.

[Tank]

4 hours ago, tdawg87 said:

Let's draft 20 hitters.

[Angelsjunky]

19 hours ago, totdprods said:

I think we just need Trout to stay healthy and have a deeper bench/AAA depth. 

I honestly don’t think O’Hoppe, Rengifo/Moore, Neto, Rendon, Ward, Moniak, Adell and Trout is a bad nine at all, and we have all those guys (except Rengifo) through 2026 - and after that, only Ward and Rendon drop off.

Trout needs to stay healthy and we just need competent layered depth.

We had 14 players make 1676 PA that generated -6 WAR. Brandon Drury was -2 WAR. We essentially gave three Brandon Drurys 560 PA.

Keep Trout healthy by moving him to DH/RF, our Adell and Moniak in CF platoon, keep Ward in LF for now, and sign a fairly legit OF/DH guy like Teoscar, O’Neill or Santander, and sign/trade for someone who can cover at least two of 2B, SS and 3B (IKF, Moncada, Farmer, Dejong, Rosario, Gorman). Trust that some combo of Rendon, Rengifo and Moore can stay healthy and productive. 

I think this draft is supposed to be a little hitter-heavy too. 

If Trout is healthy and the kids develop as hoped--and in a reasonable, realistic way--then the offense will be pretty good. 

And yeah, I hear you about the negative WAR from such a huge percentage of the lineup. 

I know Ward is better suited to to LF, but I don't like Trout's arm in RF. He really belongs in left.

[totdprods]

6 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

If Trout is healthy and the kids develop as hoped--and in a reasonable, realistic way--then the offense will be pretty good. 

And yeah, I hear you about the negative WAR from such a huge percentage of the lineup. 

I know Ward is better suited to to LF, but I don't like Trout's arm in RF. He really belongs in left.

Ward turned into a pretty solid LF this season, and Adell looked good in RF. Moniak’s the best CF we have. In reality, Trout really should DH a bulk of the time at this point, tough as a transition as it might be. But it would save an enormous amount of wear and tear and if he can adapt to the change of only making 4-5 appearances a game, it wouldn’t be too surprising if it helped him rediscover some of what he lost offensively. If he has to field, unfortunately RF is probably the default, with Adell assuming CF and Moniak spotting all three. 

If they’re truly intent on moving Trout’s position this year, it does probably ramp up the possibility of Ward being dealt.

[Angelsjunky]

4 hours ago, totdprods said:

Ward turned into a pretty solid LF this season, and Adell looked good in RF. Moniak’s the best CF we have. In reality, Trout really should DH a bulk of the time at this point, tough as a transition as it might be. But it would save an enormous amount of wear and tear and if he can adapt to the change of only making 4-5 appearances a game, it wouldn’t be too surprising if it helped him rediscover some of what he lost offensively. If he has to field, unfortunately RF is probably the default, with Adell assuming CF and Moniak spotting all three. 

If they’re truly intent on moving Trout’s position this year, it does probably ramp up the possibility of Ward being dealt.

I think Trout's health will be the first consideration - the Angels will place him where they (and he) think he has the best chance of staying healthy, then fit the others around him. I just don't think Ward in LF or Adell in RF is inviolable in the way that optimizing Trout's chances of staying healthy is.

That said, I think more important than where he plays is his training regime. But in terms of the OF, it may be more important that he gets more DH days than whether he plays CF, RF, or LF. Meaning, 70 games in CF and 60 games at DH might be better than 100 games in RF and 30 games at DH. But again, I think the larger problem is his body and how he trains. I want to be hopeful, but it is hard to be.

As for Moniak, he's a good Rorschach test for how bad things are. Ideally he's a platoon/4th OF guy who gets less than 250 PA. If that happens it is probably good news. If he gets 250-400 PA, we're probably slipping into the danger zone; if he gets 400+ PA, the fit hit the shan. Again.

 

[Blarg]

On 10/7/2024 at 9:26 PM, totdprods said:

Keep Trout healthy by moving him to DH/RF,

Trout doesn't have the arm for right field. 

[Erstad Grit]

This is exciting. If we can build a great inexpensive pitching staff, adding some big bats is a lot easier in FA than adding an ace. 

[SlappyUtilityMIF]

On 10/8/2024 at 5:35 PM, totdprods said:

Ward turned into a pretty solid LF this season, and Adell looked good in RF. Moniak’s the best CF we have. In reality, Trout really should DH a bulk of the time at this point, tough as a transition as it might be. But it would save an enormous amount of wear and tear and if he can adapt to the change of only making 4-5 appearances a game, it wouldn’t be too surprising if it helped him rediscover some of what he lost offensively. If he has to field, unfortunately RF is probably the default, with Adell assuming CF and Moniak spotting all three. 

If they’re truly intent on moving Trout’s position this year, it does probably ramp up the possibility of Ward being dealt.

Ward is slow to react to balls down the line and in the gap, and doesn't have the actual foot speed of a slowed down Trout would have. He takes odd wait and see routes off the wall down the line and doesn't always turn correctly to get a solid throw off. Which means he tends to give up the extra base or +1 instead of holding people.

Trout needs to be in LF or DH. He reads the ball well in the gaps in CF which would take a little adjustment but he can do it. His arm isn't elite but its more accurate and he puts himself in a good mechanics spot to get a throw off. His foot speed will obviously decline as his knee continues to decline. Which will be his eventual switch to a permanent DH in 3-4 years.

Ward may have some value to a team that is in the middle to meh pack. I could see him as a platoon option for a high rank team as well. 

Another concern was the Salmon statement above. IF we had 2-3 Salmons in the Minors 25-30 bombs and 80-110 rbi's they would be here tomorrow. Just based on the quick promotions that Perry has started doing.

I also, have no problems with a bunch of 20-25 home run guys who drive in 75-90 if they're getting on base at a .330+ and hitting over .250 -.270.

A few guys in FA that I have varying interest in. Gleyber Torres 2b/ss, Teoscar Hernandez OF/DH, Anthony Santander is ok but he disappeared in August/September and was a non-factor in the Playoffs. IF he is your RF he has pop and that's about it. He had better Road splits this season... Meh. I might have had some interest in Max Keplar but he's battling Patella Tendonitis which means he's going to be in n out of the lineup and eventually moving to a DH spot like Trout at some point as well.

I think I'd rather make a trade for an OFer.

[SlappyUtilityMIF]

On 10/11/2024 at 8:57 AM, Erstad Grit said:

This is exciting. If we can build a great inexpensive pitching staff, adding some big bats is a lot easier in FA than adding an ace. 

They don't even have to be Great! Just consistent and get outs! Wherever, they are...

[Dtwncbad]

If there is such a lack of any offense expected to come from the system in the next couple of years, I just don’t get why some fans are bothered by the idea of using free agency to upgrade the offense.

This team needs some offense.

 

[Angelsjunky]

3 hours ago, Dtwncbad said:

If there is such a lack of any offense expected to come from the system in the next couple of years, I just don’t get why some fans are bothered by the idea of using free agency to upgrade the offense.

This team needs some offense.

 

Because free agents are usually 32 year olds with their best years gone.

[Dtwncbad]

6 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Because free agents are usually 32 year olds with their best years gone.

So because it’s possible to make a bad deal with a fading player, just avoid all free agency.  Got it.

[Dgar24]

3 hours ago, Dtwncbad said:

If there is such a lack of any offense expected to come from the system in the next couple of years, I just don’t get why some fans are bothered by the idea of using free agency to upgrade the offense.

This team needs some offense.

 

If pitching is our systems strength we need to secure the infield along with the offense.  Soriano and Koch are ground-ball machines . I’m sure it would help Detmer’s a great deal as well. If the wanting to compete is real then let’s get the infield right, Rengifo is definitely not that guy. 
Second base and third have to improve.Trout going to be our offensive add. 

Edited 6 hours ago by Dgar24

[Blarg]

7 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

So because it’s possible to make a bad deal with a fading player, just avoid all free agency.  Got it.

Nope. Just don't commit to any deal out of desperation.