Gameday Thread (9/5/24 5pm Pacific): Angels @ Rangers: Kochanowicz on the mound, Stefanic, Leblanc starting

[eligrba4ever]

Good night, Angels. 

22 games to play. Games to .500: Maybe next April.

[Angel Oracle]

23 minutes ago, jsnpritchett said:

He's slumping a bit.  .206/.310/.289 since August 3, and 1 for his last 20.

Maybe don’t stand all day again this off-season.

[Angel Oracle]

Hitters must have been on jet lag still.  Neto was the only one who showed up.

[jsnpritchett]

12 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

Hitters must have been on jet lag still.  Neto was the only one who showed up.

He also made another error, though, and had another throw that he probably should have made that was ruled a hit.

[Angels 1961]

5 good starts in a row for Koch, right now that is the bottom line. Right now it is working and until it breaks do not worry about it. 3 more starts to end the season let's see what he does. 

[tdawg87]

36 minutes ago, jsnpritchett said:

I just checked and, as usual, Smith is wrong--but not by much.  Last night was the 3rd time they'd scored 10.  They also did it on April 3 and July 30.  But still crazy that they haven't scored MORE than 10 runs in any game--and have only scored exactly 10 3 times.

This team sucks imo.

[Stradling]

1 hour ago, Angel Oracle said:

Maybe don’t stand all day again this off-season.

Dumb. 

[aceofpace]

The offense is definitely more worrisome than pitching. I would focus on it in the offseason.

[Tank]

6 hours ago, Ace-Of-Diamonds said:

Is Rendon hurt again?

no, just resting i imagine.

if rendon plays four more games, it'll be the most he's played in one season during his time in anaheim. 

[Tank]

2 hours ago, tdawg87 said:

This team sucks imo.

wow, you're really taking a bold stand on this one. 

i, for one, applaud you.

[tdawg87]

52 minutes ago, Tank said:

wow, you're really taking a bold stand on this one. 

i, for one, applaud you.

Thank you.

[Inside Pitch]

5 hours ago, jsnpritchett said:

Yes, but as I've said elsewhere, there has to be some improvement.  This isn't sustainable.  I know IP will jump in and say he's an outlier--and I believe that.  But I just have a hard time wrapping my head around him having sustained success in the majors striking out less than 1 guy every 3 innings.

Don't get me wrong, what he does goes against everything I believe.  The ability to make their own outs is the single biggest factor to long term success for a pitcher (including Koch), but his being able to get through games without it is what makes him an outlier.  I've never understood how these guys do it, but I know they exist and that they tend to get INTO trouble when they get away from throwing sinkers.  That being said I think he can and eventually may find that pitch.

The thing about Kochanowicz is that I've been saying ths same thing about him for a long time and not just after he's done it at the MLB level -- he's doing exactly what he's shown he can predictably do.  @Chuck can confirm when doing our prospect stuff before the 2023 season I had left him entirely off my top 30 list but made it a point to say I could see him shoot to into the top 10.  My concerns were more about how the Angels had been failing to develop him than anything else.  I argued he could have this kind of "success" in the prospects thread over a year ago at the MLB level over a year ago.  I've also repeatedly questioned/wondered why he's not throwing the rumored 12/6 curve that everyone believed would be that strikeout pitch for him and I think he NEEDs one.

He is legitimately Omar Olivares at 98 MPH.  @Tank can attest to how frustrated I'd get when he would get away from just throwing sinkers and how even more frustrating it was (for me) that throwing nothing but sinkers worked. 

So after gassing him up I'll say it again, I don't understand it either and I am 100% in agreement that the key to his long term success is developing a pitch he can manufacture outs with ... but what he is doing isn't a fluke and as @jsnpritchett says innings/games like the first inning today are guaranteed to happen.

Lol.... He's an outlier.

 

[Inside Pitch]

6 hours ago, TheLordofOuts said:

There it is. A Quality start with 0 strikeouts.  

If he keeps it up we might have to start calling those a Kochanowicz...   It's borderline funny he's done it twice now.

[Inside Pitch]

6 hours ago, jsnpritchett said:

12 K in 38 2/3 innings so far this year.  Lol.

It's genuinely laughable.

[Inside Pitch]

12 hours ago, Chuck said:

That's crazy. I know @Inside Pitch thinks it's OK as long as he's getting outs, but I don't think it's sustainable unless he develops a changeup or splitter. 

He's only been doing it his entire minor league career.  Show me one other minor leaguer they have developed in your time as a fan where they limited him to nothing but FBs like they did Koch his first season.  Everyone thought he was awful because "ERA" but I saw 68 million ground balls and the typical minor league playing surfaces and defense.  The ERA was awful, but the ability to induce GBs was something he was having control over -- how they bounced or how the defense played, not so much.

I know I get very mathy with my observations but it's always in support of what I think I'm seeing a player do.  This guy has been inducing ground balls at inexplicably high rates his entire career and at every level.  I can point to his height and all the other things that mechanically hint at why he's doing it but I can't explain why he can do it and others can't.  It's a freakish thing. 

[tdawg87]

Maybe he has autism? 

[Inside Pitch]

6 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

Maybe he has autism? 

He's autistic and loves democracy..

[Chuck]

8 hours ago, Inside Pitch said:

He's only been doing it his entire minor league career. 

Yeah, that's what concerns me about his continued success in the big leagues unless he develops an off-speed pitch. 

He has a 5.39 career minor league ERA with a .273 BAA, 1.39 WHIP. 

[tdawg87]

20 minutes ago, Chuck said:

Yeah, that's what concerns me about his continued success in the big leagues unless he develops an off-speed pitch. 

He has a 5.39 career minor league ERA with a .273 BAA, 1.39 WHIP. 

You gonna bring up minor league ERA to IP? 

[Inside Pitch]

26 minutes ago, Chuck said:

Yeah, that's what concerns me about his continued success in the big leagues unless he develops an off-speed pitch. 

He has a 5.39 career minor league ERA with a .273 BAA, 1.39 WHIP. 

You're making the mistake of thinking ERA matters when predicting future success -- it has zero predictive value. I'm not saying that dismissively it was the hardest thing for me to buy into too..  Don't forget -- he was putting up those numbers when I was suggesting he could come up and get outs throwing nothing but sinkers.

To be perfectly frank if I had not seem him pitch so much I'd look at the numbers and write him off -- I just think he's an odd fish and the normal rules may not apply. Koch is interesting because he does have a very good CB, he can get it up to 98, and he's got movement but stays in the zone. I thought Wash's comments the other day were rather telling, something along the lines of all they want is for him to just keep throwing sinkers and pounding the zone.  They are seemingly ok with him going out there and making no effort to manufacture outs on his own. I'd love to see what their data is showing.

[Inside Pitch]

5 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

You gonna bring up minor league ERA to IP? 

ERA in general..  Absolutely useless stat other than to track the outcome.  Tells us nothing about how or why.

[Chuck]

2 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

You're making the mistake of thinking ERA matters when predicting future success -- it has zero predictive value. I'm not saying that dismissively it was the hardest thing for me to buy into too..  Don't forget -- he was putting up those numbers when I was suggesting he could come up and get outs throwing nothing but sinkers.

To be perfectly frank if I had not seem him pitch so much I'd look at the numbers and write him off -- I just think he's an odd fish and the normal rules may not apply. Koch is interesting because he does have a very good CB, he can get it up to 98, and he's got movement but stays in the zone. I thought Wash's comments the other day were rather telling, something along the lines of all they want is for him to just keep throwing sinkers and pounding the zone.  They are seemingly ok with him going out there and making no effort to manufacture outs on his own. I'd love to see what their data is showing.

I really want him to succeed. I think what the Angels did with Soriano having him use his sinker more than trying to get strikeouts. That said, Soriano can throw his slider to get a strikeout when needed or when he's in a jam. 

I think if Koch develops that offspeed pitch he'll be a very good middle of the rotation starter, much like Soriano. 

[Chuck]

9 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

You gonna bring up minor league ERA to IP? 

More concerned with the WHIP and BAA. 

As far as ERA, I get it if a pitcher is in a terrible league for starting pitchers (like the PCL), but when you're allowing a ton of baserunners you're counting on your defense to be above average and you need some a bit of luck to succeed. 

[Inside Pitch]

2 minutes ago, Chuck said:

More concerned with the WHIP and BAA. 

As far as ERA, I get it if a pitcher is in a terrible league for starting pitchers (like the PCL), but when you're allowing a ton of baserunners you're counting on your defense to be above average and you need some a bit of luck to succeed. 

His BAA wasn't bad and when you consider playing surfaces, lighting, and defense in general, he was likely getting dinged by those things.  GB guys tend to see more favorable outcomes at the MLB level than they do in the minors just because all of those conditions are better in general.  Not saying they automatically perform better, just that they tend to see an uptick positive outcomes on ground ball events.

But yes, he'll always be at the mercy of the BaBip gods and only stands to benefit by generating his own outs