Those who want the Angels to sign Corbin Burnes … why?

[Taylor]

2 hours ago, Stradling said:

Well they are MUCH more affordable than So Cal. Look up any cost of living index. 

Because they suck ass. Who doesn’t want to experience 100% humidity for four months out of the year, and boring, flat swamp ass environs. 

[Jeff Fletcher]

The 2019 Angels were 72-90 (and looked a lot worse than the current Angels, honestly), and then they signed Anthony Rendon.

I'm not saying they will or won't sign Burnes, or that they should or shouldn't try. Just reminding you that free agents don't all just sign with the good teams.

[BTH]

14 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

The 2019 Angels were 72-90 (and looked a lot worse than the current Angels, honestly), and then they signed Anthony Rendon.

I'm not saying they will or won't sign Burnes, or that they should or shouldn't try. Just reminding you that free agents don't all just sign with the good teams.

So maybe the lesson is don’t sign a player who wants to sign with a 90 loss team that looks even worse than that.

[Tank]

On 8/24/2024 at 10:29 PM, Angels 1961 said:

Lorenzen is coming here, him and Cueto.

[Hubs]

I think the Angels starting depth has definitely been an issue. But they're scoring less than 4 runs a game too. They have needs on both sides of the ball. Healthy seasons from Rengifo and Trout will help, but won't solve it. If Adell hits like he has recently, they'll have that spot locked down. But they need better production from the other corner OF, DH, and 3B.

Signing Burnes doesn't help that. 

The rotation projection right now for me would be Soriano, Anderson, Canning, Detmers, and Silseth. With Daniel, Aldegheri, Kochanawicz, Bachman, and Dana in the mix.

They can non tender Canning, but they would only do that if they signed a FOTR arm. 

And if Sasaki is posted, they have to try for him too. That is not a huge contract, he's eligible only for the Ohtani type deal. 

 

[Hubs]

Burnes is 30.

I'd also add that Flaherty (who I also wanted last year) is a little younger than 29, and Buehler is 30 as well. Bieber is 29. Severino is also 30. Sasaki is turning 23 in November. Signing Sasaki is a dream, as he will cost you basically nothing for three seasons and lines up with your young core.

Burnes is probably going to get the 6-7 year 175 M range. Aaron Nola was one year older and got 7 / 172 as the second highest pitching contract last year in a down year for FA SP. Rodon got 6 / 162 in 2022-2023 offseason at age 31.

Otherwise you're looking at maybe 22-28M AAV for everyone else over 2/3/4/5. Anderson is not an ace, but he was a deal in comparison to these last two years of contracts. 

I like the idea of pursuing bats significantly better than going after two free agent arms, but I could see the Angels getting 1 impact SP and 1 impact bat plus some additional depth pieces.

Soto is the dream offensively at age 26.

I still also like Santander. Chapman makes some sense, but I dislike his attitude.

 

[TananaBananas]

I think the bigger question is how much money Artie will let Perry spend in the offseason. All this speculation is moot if Artie continues to cut salary.

In 2023 their payroll was $234 M - ranked 9th in MLB

In 2024 their payroll was $189 M - ranked 15th in MLB

Currently their 2025 payroll is projected at $122 M.

Will Artie give Perry a team payroll budget of $180 M?

[Blarg]

Now really isn't the time to spend money. It's a rebuild, these guys aren't ready to make the jump to playoff contention. So dropping coin on free agents is pissing into the wind at this point.

Save the money, stockpile high draft picks and see if there is an established core of young players to work with. Currently this core is struggling to play at league level. Until they have some breakthroughs no free agents are going to elevate that. 

[Vlad27Trout27]

You're starting to see cracks in Burnes. His K rate has gone down, his cutter (which is considered his best pitch) has declined, and he has struggled in the second half. He is already showing decline while looking for a big year.

I think the better route would be to go after Kikuchi/ or someone similar and Bieber, as you could still get similar value with fewer years and less money spent, and still fill other needs. 

[Stradling]

On 8/28/2024 at 10:47 AM, Hubs said:

Burnes is 30.

I'd also add that Flaherty (who I also wanted last year) is a little younger than 29, and Buehler is 30 as well. Bieber is 29. Severino is also 30. Sasaki is turning 23 in November. Signing Sasaki is a dream, as he will cost you basically nothing for three seasons and lines up with your young core.

Burnes is probably going to get the 6-7 year 175 M range. Aaron Nola was one year older and got 7 / 172 as the second highest pitching contract last year in a down year for FA SP. Rodon got 6 / 162 in 2022-2023 offseason at age 31.

Otherwise you're looking at maybe 22-28M AAV for everyone else over 2/3/4/5. Anderson is not an ace, but he was a deal in comparison to these last two years of contracts. 

I like the idea of pursuing bats significantly better than going after two free agent arms, but I could see the Angels getting 1 impact SP and 1 impact bat plus some additional depth pieces.

Soto is the dream offensively at age 26.

I still also like Santander. Chapman makes some sense, but I dislike his attitude.

 

Burnes will get $210-$240 million if not a lot more. He’s getting $30-35 million for 7-8 years. 

[Hubs]

15 hours ago, Stradling said:

Burnes will get $210-$240 million if not a lot more. He’s getting $30-35 million for 7-8 years. 

I agree that he will get more than Nola, but not that much more. Nola got 7/172. The contracts higher than that for starting pitchers have aged poorly. 

Almost nobody signs for more than 3 years as a starter. Just the 2-3 upper echelon guys in each class.

He might get 6 / 174, or something, but do you really think he'd get the Strasburg / Rendon contract? (7/245) Doubtful at age 30.

[Hubs]

Just now, Hubs said:

I agree that he will get more than Nola, but not that much more. Nola got 7/172. The contracts higher than that for starting pitchers have aged poorly. 

Almost nobody signs for more than 3 years as a starter. Just the 2-3 upper echelon guys in each class.

He might get 6 / 174, or something, but do you really think he'd get the Strasburg / Rendon contract? (7/245) Doubtful at age 30.

Clarifying my point is, while I think 32-35 is feasible, it will be for 4-5 years then, not 7-8. If he signs for 7-8 it will be upper 20's to 30.

7-210 is the absolute most I could see and that's not likely.

[Stradling]

7 minutes ago, Hubs said:

I agree that he will get more than Nola, but not that much more. Nola got 7/172. The contracts higher than that for starting pitchers have aged poorly. 

Almost nobody signs for more than 3 years as a starter. Just the 2-3 upper echelon guys in each class.

He might get 6 / 174, or something, but do you really think he'd get the Strasburg / Rendon contract? (7/245) Doubtful at age 30.

Yes. He’s getting over $200 million and he will get $30-35 million a year. 

[Hubs]

16 minutes ago, Stradling said:

Yes. He’s getting over $200 million and he will get $30-35 million a year. 

I highly doubt he gets both. Starting pitching contracts are getting shorter. Carlos Rodon's deal was only 6 seasons. Guess we will see. 

The highest contracts for a SP (Minus Ohtani who is a unicorn) ever are Yoshinobu Yamamoto's deal for 12 years, 325 (27 per year). By Annual value, it's Verlander/ Scherzer at 43.333 per year but for short terms. Scherzer was 3, and Verlander was 2 years. Next was Jacob DeGrom (37 per over 5 years) and then Gerrit Cole (36 per over 9) and the Strasburg contract (35 per over 7). Greinke at 34.416667 and Bauer at 34 round out the list.

Yamamoto is 26. Cole was 30 when he signed his deal, same as Burnes. 

Like I said, I can see over 200 and I can see over 30, but don't see him making both over 30 and over 7 years.

7/210 is the most I see him making. Maybe a tiny bit over that, like 7/213.5 or something. I really don't even see like 6 at 33 or 6 at 34. 

 

I don't see the Angels playing in that pool regardless. I can see them really pushing for Sasaki at age 23. He'd only be due a 10M signing bonus. 

Edited August 30 by Hubs

[FromJapan]

6 hours ago, Hubs said:

I don't see the Angels playing in that pool regardless. I can see them really pushing for Sasaki at age 23. He'd only be due a 10M signing bonus. 

On August 30th (Japan time), officials from 15 MLB teams observed the pitching of Roki Sasaki, who is rumored to be able to move to the MLB as early as next season. He pitched until the 7th inning, allowing three hits but no runs, and earned his 7th win. It was confirmed that staff from the Dodgers, Cubs, and Cardinals were present.

Source in Japanese: Sports Hochi（online newspaper）on August 31, 2024

Source: JAPANTODAY on August 31, 2024

 

[Taylor]

On 8/29/2024 at 8:21 PM, Vlad27Trout27 said:

You're starting to see cracks in Burnes. His K rate has gone down, his cutter (which is considered his best pitch) has declined, and he has struggled in the second half. He is already showing decline while looking for a big year.

I think the better route would be to go after Kikuchi/ or someone similar and Bieber, as you could still get similar value with fewer years and less money spent, and still fill other needs. 

Sounds like a perfect candidate for the Angels to overpay and receive mediocrity.

[Vlad27Trout27]

16 hours ago, FromJapan said:

On August 30th (Japan time), officials from 15 MLB teams observed the pitching of Roki Sasaki, who is rumored to be able to move to the MLB as early as next season. He pitched until the 7th inning, allowing three hits but no runs, and earned his 7th win. It was confirmed that staff from the Dodgers, Cubs, and Cardinals were present.

Source in Japanese: Sports Hochi（online newspaper）on August 31, 2024

Source: JAPANTODAY on August 31, 2024

 

ahhh, No Yankees? this can't be right. Yankee's are always involved.

If Sasaki does decide to get posted, all 30 or maybe 28 teams will be involved.  

 

[Vlad27Trout27]

16 hours ago, FromJapan said:

On August 30th (Japan time), officials from 15 MLB teams observed the pitching of Roki Sasaki, who is rumored to be able to move to the MLB as early as next season. He pitched until the 7th inning, allowing three hits but no runs, and earned his 7th win. It was confirmed that staff from the Dodgers, Cubs, and Cardinals were present.

Source in Japanese: Sports Hochi（online newspaper）on August 31, 2024

Source: JAPANTODAY on August 31, 2024

 

You're exactly the person I was hoping to ask. Do you know of any other big names from Japan who might be considering a move to MLB besides Sasaki next year? I haven't really heard much lately. There's that third baseman, but I can't remember his name—last I heard, he might not be coming over until 2026

[FromJapan]

12 hours ago, Vlad27Trout27 said:

ahhh, No Yankees? this can't be right. Yankee's are always involved.

Sorry, but I didn't know if the Yankees or Angels staff came to inspect Sasaki.

 

[FromJapan]

12 hours ago, Vlad27Trout27 said:

You're exactly the person I was hoping to ask. Do you know of any other big names from Japan who might be considering a move to MLB besides Sasaki next year? I haven't really heard much lately. There's that third baseman, but I can't remember his name—last I heard, he might not be coming over until 2026

It was probably Tokyo Yakult Swallows (NPB) third baseman Munetaka Murakami. He won the triple crown at the age of 22 in 2022, but his performance has been a bit unstable last season and this season. The Swallows have given him permission to pursue a transfer to MLB using the posting system in the offseason of 2025.

Link: his stats in English

 

Edited September 1 by FromJapan
Add text

[FromJapan]

20 hours ago, Vlad27Trout27 said:

Do you know of any other big names from Japan who might be considering a move to MLB besides Sasaki next year?

Kazuma Okamoto, infielder for the Yomiuri Giants (NPB)
Link: His summary on official NPB players page

Date of Birth: June 30, 1996 (28 years old)
Height, Weight: 6-1, 220lb (186cm, 100kg)
Achievements at age 22: over .300 BA, 30 HR, and 100 RBI
Consecutive Titles: Won both the home run and RBI titles in 2020 and 2021.
Consecutive 30+ Home Run Seasons: Has hit 30 or more home runs in six consecutive seasons from 2018.
Utility Player: Can play first base, third base, and left field.
Potential MLB Move: Okamoto is eligible to exercise his overseas free agency rights after the 2026 season at the earliest. However, he declined a multi-year contract offer during the 2023 offseason and opted for a one-year deal. This suggests that he may be considering a move to MLB after 2024 season via the posting system.

Link (Baseball Reference): His stats

 

 

[The Ghost of Bob Starr]

On 8/27/2024 at 4:34 PM, Jeff Fletcher said:

The 2019 Angels were 72-90 (and looked a lot worse than the current Angels, honestly), and then they signed Anthony Rendon.

I'm not saying they will or won't sign Burnes, or that they should or shouldn't try. Just reminding you that free agents don't all just sign with the good teams.

In Rendon’s case, the sign where they can milk and completely quit.  

[Vlad27Trout27]

 

I’d prefer Kikuchi over Burnes. He’ll cost less in both money and years, plus his FIP and xFIP are much better than Burnes'. Despite the difference in price, Kikuchi has provided similar value in WAR.

Burnes will likely command $30+ million per year, while Kikuchi will be in the $16-20 million range.

Looking at the rotation, it’s shaping up to be a strong group:

1. TA
2. Soriano
3. Free agent signing
4. Dana
5. Detmers

In the minors, you’ve got Koch, Aldegheri, Klassen, and Costeiu, guys with real upside, not just AAAA players.

It should be an interesting offseason for the team. With Soriano and Dana as solid building blocks and other prospects in the mix, I’m curious to see what the plan will be.

I'm still in the Boat to go out and sign Kikuchi and Bieber. 

 

[Blarg]

Depending on his September outings, Kochanowitz may be a starter next season. I don’t think he has much more to learn in AAA other than a repeatable third pitch, he can work on that in the offseason. 

[FromJapan]

On 9/1/2024 at 2:29 AM, Vlad27Trout27 said:

 I haven't really heard much lately. There's that third baseman, but I can't remember his name—last I heard, he might not be coming over until 2026

Munetaka Murakami (24) signed a contract with an agent (Casey Close of Excel Sports Management) in preparation for a transfer to the majors via the posting system. Regarding Japanese players, Casey Close was also the agent for Masahiro Tanaka in his move to the Yankees.

Source in Japanese: Daily Sports on September 22, 2024

The posting system in MLB has a rule that foreign-born players must be at least 25 years old and have played professionally in a foreign league for at least six seasons to be exempt from "international bonus pool money restrictions". If the rules regarding posting system are changed, the Swallows will allow him to move to the MLB team early this offseason.