Jo Adell

[samwum]

Adell heating back up. Not including tonight's big hit, and a SB to add -- 

• Last 7 days - .429 AVG, .556 OBP, .619 SLG
• Last 15 days - .261 AVG, .370 OBP, .413 SLG

Stepping back to look at Jo's season stats, we find he's likely due for some positive luck --

• .225 BABIP
• .198 AVG vs .233 StatCast xBA 
• .399 SLG vs .458 Statcast xSLG

Using that season-long sample size, prior concerns about strikeouts and defense seem to be mitigated to some degree --

• 29% K Rate (high, but still in the acceptable zone)
• Defensive metrics - 4 DRS (good), -1 OAA (marginally below average)

The numbers I can't look away from are the HRs and SBs.

• Thru ~300 ABs, Adell has 15 HRs and now 13 SBs
• Extrapolated for a full season of ~600 ABs.... he's pacing for roughly 30 HRs and 25 SBs? 
• In 2023 only 4 guys cleared 30 HRs and 25 SBs. It's impressive company.
  • Ronald Acuna Jr. (41/73)
  • Bobby Witt Jr. (30/49)
  • Julio Rodriguez (32/37)
  • Francisco Lindor (31/31)

 

This latest Adell hotstreak is big news. The stats indicated he was due for a turn in fortune. Adell's strikeout and defense concerns have been mitigated, and HR/SB combo is All-Star caliber. I think if this rebuild comes to fruition the Jo Show might be the key factor.

[Angelsfan1984]

If Perry was a good gm he’d trade adell…according to sources.

[arch stanton]

.250/.314/.656/.971 in 70 PAs against lefties. Once he figures out the righties a little he'll be good

[samwum]

19 minutes ago, arch stanton said:

.250/.314/.656/.971 in 70 PAs against lefties. Once he figures out the righties a little he'll be good

Hey, that happens. Luis Rengifo was a LHP merchant before he put it all together this year. His slash lines are below.

• 2022
  • vs R -- .238 / .271 / .358 
  • vs L -- .315 / .339 / .570
• 2023
  • vs R -- .240 / .321 / .406
  • vs L -- .324 / .387 / .541
• 2024
  • vs R -- .299 / .344 / .418
  • vs L -- .380 / .415 / .540

[halodground]

He and Ward were both on Eno Sarris’ list of candidates for a bounce back 2nd half based on Stat Cast data.

[Angel Oracle]

Did Ward finally overcome the recent pitch to the helmut?   

Four hits the past 2 games

[Inside Pitch]

Dude is being exactly who he's been...

He's going to end up having a season where he doesn't get lost in the wilderness for 40 years and make people wonder why he can't be that guy all the time.

Can't even begun to explain it.

[aceofpace]

I have to admit. Jo almost made me give up on him. Hopefully he finishes this season strong and cement his place in the outfield for the foreseeable future.

[totdprods]

I posted this a couple days ago at the end of a Gameday thread that got buried…

I’ve been maintaining all season that this is a significantly different Jo Adell than 2020-2022 Jo Adell, and coming into today, I actually have some stats to back it up and it’s a good time to do so since he’s about even now with his 2022 games and plate appearances.

Jo 2022: 88 G/285 PA, .224/.264/.373/.637 with 12 2B, 2 3B, 8 HR, 27 RBI, 11 BB, 107 K, 4 -6 SB

Jo 2024: 88 G/295 PA, .192/.259/.398/.657 with 8 2B, 1 3B, 15 HR, 21 BB, 86 K, 11-18 SB

At first blush, it doesn’t look very different, it may even look worse with the ugly BA, the OBP and SLG not particularly different, still a poor BB:K ratio.

But digging deeper you start to see signs of a hitter who has made adjustments and improved. Is he great? No. Is it perfect? No. But there are trends in the right direction and he is still only 25, and arguably in his first real season as probably the more polished and appropriately developed/promoted Jo Adell.

BAbip: .338 in ‘22, .214 in ‘24. Not only has Jo been unlucky this year - he was technically lucky a couple years back…when he hit .224.

HardHit% and Exit Velocity: 37.7% and 87.1mph in ‘22, 44.8% and 89.5mph in ‘24. Both of these were below MLB average in 2022, and now both are above MLB average. In fact, his four seasons prior to 2024 averaged out were all below MLB average - and now it’s above-average. 

Pull%, Cent%, Oppo%: 34.8%, 50.3%, 14.9% in ‘22 and now 26.2%, 56.3% and 17.5% in ‘24. Adell is now pulling the ball way less (8%) and going up the middle and opposite field much more often. And once again, all of these rates are now better than MLB averages - he’s pulling the ball less than the MLB average and hitting it center and oppo more often than the average MLB hitter (technically .5% less to opposite, but more than enough center to offset). To me this shows he has absolutely made strides in hitting to all fields. 

I see a hitter who has made legit strides to improve his offensive profile. It paid dividends to start the year and yes, it has cooled since, but even in spite of his brutal cold stretch the numbers above, to me, show a different Jo Adell this year. He’s hitting the ball harder, he’s hitting the ball to all parts of the field, and he’s been awfully unlucky. He’s different from when he first came up. Hopefully he can keep this up and get a hot streak in again soon to bring his numbers back up closer to where I feel they could and should be, maybe .250/.300/.450, and he can build on that next year. 

[totdprods]

Also Moniak slashing .261/.316/.460/.776 in his last 34 G/120 PA.

All the young bats have been picking it up after each had slow starts (aside from Adell, whose slump came in the middle).

• Neto: .282/.330/.508/.837 in last 76 games (after .449 OPS through first 21 games)
• Schanuel: .265/.338/.389/.726 in last 78 games (after .422 OPS first 14 games)
• O’Hoppe hasn’t really had a bad sustained slump, but since June 4th he’s been on a whole other level with a .322/.376/.554/.930 slash in last 35 games (.712 OPS in the 51 games prior)
• Moniak: 261/.316/.460/.776 last 34 games, .429 OPS in 47 games prior

This is cherry-picking a little bit, but, it also could simply be these guys needed some time to get going. O’Hoppe and Schanuel still don’t have a full season’s worth of games in their career, and Neto and Moniak just barely. Even Adell is only as career game #269. 

Edited July 23 by totdprods

[samwum]

20 hours ago, Angel Oracle said:

Did Ward finally overcome the recent pitch to the helmut?   

Four hits the past 2 games

Ward is probably another guy who is primed for better results.

• .230 AVG vs. .250 xAVG
• .399 SLG vs. .478 xSLG
• good plate discipline, good batted ball profile

That difference between SLG and xSLG is huge. The 7th biggest discrepancy in the league.

For this reason, I think analytically savvy teams are going to be calling the Halos quite a bit to try to "buy low" on Ward. Makes a lot of sense to me why the Pirates, of all teams, were allegedly interested.

[samwum]

15 hours ago, totdprods said:

I posted this a couple days ago at the end of a Gameday thread that got buried…

I’ve been maintaining all season that this is a significantly different Jo Adell than 2020-2022 Jo Adell, and coming into today, I actually have some stats to back it up and it’s a good time to do so since he’s about even now with his 2022 games and plate appearances.

Jo 2022: 88 G/285 PA, .224/.264/.373/.637 with 12 2B, 2 3B, 8 HR, 27 RBI, 11 BB, 107 K, 4 -6 SB

Jo 2024: 88 G/295 PA, .192/.259/.398/.657 with 8 2B, 1 3B, 15 HR, 21 BB, 86 K, 11-18 SB

At first blush, it doesn’t look very different, it may even look worse with the ugly BA, the OBP and SLG not particularly different, still a poor BB:K ratio.

But digging deeper you start to see signs of a hitter who has made adjustments and improved. Is he great? No. Is it perfect? No. But there are trends in the right direction and he is still only 25, and arguably in his first real season as probably the more polished and appropriately developed/promoted Jo Adell.

BAbip: .338 in ‘22, .214 in ‘24. Not only has Jo been unlucky this year - he was technically lucky a couple years back…when he hit .224.

HardHit% and Exit Velocity: 37.7% and 87.1mph in ‘22, 44.8% and 89.5mph in ‘24. Both of these were below MLB average in 2022, and now both are above MLB average. In fact, his four seasons prior to 2024 averaged out were all below MLB average - and now it’s above-average. 

Pull%, Cent%, Oppo%: 34.8%, 50.3%, 14.9% in ‘22 and now 26.2%, 56.3% and 17.5% in ‘24. Adell is now pulling the ball way less (8%) and going up the middle and opposite field much more often. And once again, all of these rates are now better than MLB averages - he’s pulling the ball less than the MLB average and hitting it center and oppo more often than the average MLB hitter (technically .5% less to opposite, but more than enough center to offset). To me this shows he has absolutely made strides in hitting to all fields. 

I see a hitter who has made legit strides to improve his offensive profile. It paid dividends to start the year and yes, it has cooled since, but even in spite of his brutal cold stretch the numbers above, to me, show a different Jo Adell this year. He’s hitting the ball harder, he’s hitting the ball to all parts of the field, and he’s been awfully unlucky. He’s different from when he first came up. Hopefully he can keep this up and get a hot streak in again soon to bring his numbers back up closer to where I feel they could and should be, maybe .250/.300/.450, and he can build on that next year. 

That's a great tidbit about the hard hit% and exit velocity, and also the pull% / cent% / oppo%.

Couldn't agree more about this year's Jo Adell being different. As we have discussed, there are so many stats which indicate so, and I'm really looking forward to watching him play in the second half.

 

 

[AngelsLakersFan]

Jo continues to get a little better every day. He was all tools and no baseball sense when they first inexplicably called him up, but now he looks like he belongs. I havent looked at the numbers but he appears to be chasing less the last couple weeks. Could just be small sample size but this is currently his biggest area of concern and he's looked good of late.

[samwum]

18 minutes ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

Jo continues to get a little better every day. He was all tools and no baseball sense when they first inexplicably called him up, but now he looks like he belongs. I havent looked at the numbers but he appears to be chasing less the last couple weeks. Could just be small sample size but this is currently his biggest area of concern and he's looked good of late.

Yeah, I'd be curious about the numbers on Adell's swings and takes. 

From my high level stats understanding, I can see Jo's BB% is 7.8% and Jo's K% is 28.6%. Neither of these figures are outstanding, but they are firmly within acceptable ranges which many of the league's best players achieve.

While I love those numbers from Jo, the biggest thing for me has been the eye test. Earlier this year he was smoking balls low in the strikezone, but not much else. Recently he has had success with pitches up in the zone, including the big hit on Monday night.

Overall I feel like whether someone is a Jo fan or not, it is objective and inarguable at this point that he has shown he can be successful.

This latest hot streak is such a big deal in my eyes because it might indicate that Jo is capable of playing the cat and mouse adjustments game that all big leaguers face. Imperative in order to achieve sustainable and consistent success over the duration of a full season of ABs.

 

[Jay]

On 7/23/2024 at 3:25 AM, aceofpace said:

I have to admit. Jo almost made me give up on him. Hopefully he finishes this season strong and cement his place in the outfield for the foreseeable future.

Personally I hope they find someone better.

[totdprods]

1 hour ago, Jay said:

Personally I hope they find someone better.

I think if Adell can finish the year with an OPS around .750, there’s a very real chance he goes a step further next year and gets closer to the .800-.850+ OPS power hitting outfielder we hoped for. If he can finish this year strong I feel good about him having turned a corner, and if he manages that, I don’t think they’d find better easily. 

My hope is they trade Ward for at least one legit MLB-ready SP prospect and get back in another trade, Anderson or Estévez, a young OF who at the very least crushes lefties to pair up with Moniak. Could also see Christian Moore possibly fitting here if they quickly determine he isn’t gonna cut it at 2B. 

FA OF crop is really weak and I don’t see anyone in AA/AAA really having any chance at grabbing an OF slot this year or next. I’m still a little puzzled/surprised they didn’t take a college OF in the early rounds of the draft given how thin we are there…the only real upside is in Inland Empire still. Rada is legit, but I see him more as a Moniak replacement or CF at least a year or two away still.

Edited July 24 by totdprods

[Angelsjunky]

X Shitty Player slashing .268/.347/.480 if you take his last 12 at bats, skip 28 at bats, then add in the next 7, then skip 90, then add in 3. ~Angelswin Members

[totdprods]

37 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

X Shitty Player slashing .268/.347/.480 if you take his last 12 at bats, skip 28 at bats, then add in the next 7, then skip 90, then add in 3. ~Angelswin Members

Not really

[Angelsjunky]

14 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Not really

[OhtaniSan]

Added Jo to my fantasy team today. So im all in baby!

[eligrba]

1 hour ago, Angelsjunky said:

X Shitty Player slashing .268/.347/.480 if you take his last 12 at bats, skip 28 at bats, then add in the next 7, then skip 90, then add in 3. ~Angelswin Members

You accurately describe the challenges of hitting. Hitting is humbling and I would guess Adell’s biggest challenge is his pride and patience with him continuing to believe he can do things he is not ready to do. His at bats are slowly becoming quality at bats. I’m good giving him another year based on the changes seen this year. I recognize the numbers are not yet there, but he is no longer the courtesy out he once was.  Pitchers are having to make better pitches with Adell. Neto and Adell are a tough 8 and 9 in the lineup. Pitchers are resting on Drury, Calhoun, Rendon and somewhat on Moniak by not being worried if they miss their location or pitch sequence.  Teams seem to have a specific plan for Neto and Adell and more aware of location and pitch sequences.