Official 2024 Angels Draft Tracker: Bonuses, Non-drafted Free Agent Signings, etc.

[Stradling]

Fuck

 

[jsnpritchett]

Just now, Stradling said:

Fuck

 

He's obviously free to do whatever he wants, but I've always thought taking a risk like that just isn't worth it.  Just take the money and hit the ground running.  He'll be 23 at the end of the next baseball season.  If I was him, I'd much rather spend 2025 pitching in A+/AA at 22 with an organization that has a tendency to move people quickly if they show signs of being major league-ready.

[Stradling]

Is the penalty for going over loss of draft pick?

[Hubs]

7 minutes ago, Stradling said:

Is the penalty for going over loss of draft pick?

Yes, but they're not over. They lose the value for Prager, but they are still under their max.

They only had around 300k to offer to Prager over his slot value. Wasn't enough apparently. 

They prioritized the guy with better stuff but a lower floor in Ryan Johnson, who signed for around 700k over slot.

Sucks cuz Prager was born on the day of the 2002 World Series Game 6 and thats a neat story. But he probably got a nice NIL deal from some rich Texan and stayed for one more season, but it may end up backfiring because of his age (21 almost 22. Will be 22 almost 23 next draft. )

 

 

[Stradling]

4 minutes ago, Hubs said:

Yes, but they're not over. They lose the value for Prager, but they are still under their max.

They only had around 300k to offer to Prager over his slot value. Wasn't enough apparently. 

They prioritized the guy with better stuff but a lower floor in Ryan Johnson, who signed for around 700k over slot.

Sucks cuz Prager was born on the day of the 2002 World Series Game 6 and thats a neat story. But he probably got a nice NIL deal from some rich Texan and stayed for one more season, but it may end up backfiring because of his age (21 almost 22. Will be 22 almost 23 next draft. )

 

 

Yea my point was if they met his asking price what would that do as far as a penalty?

[jsnpritchett]

13 minutes ago, Stradling said:

Yea my point was if they met his asking price what would that do as far as a penalty?

Assuming meeting his asking price would take them above the 5% overage, they'd lose a first round pick if it was between 5-10% above the bonus pool allotment--and then it escalates from there (losing a 1st and 2nd rounder, two 1st rounders, etc.)

[Hubs]

1 minute ago, Stradling said:

Yea my point was if they met his asking price what would that do as far as a penalty?

They lose a first round pick for being between 5-10% over pool. They would also pay a 75% tax on the overage. If they exceeded 10% its a first and a second and 100% tax, and If they exceeded 15% they would go to two first round picks and 100% tax on overage.

My numbers are a tiny bit different than the ones on page one, but my count says they have signed contracts for $13,285,500 of which all but 900k counts against the bonus pool. So $12,385,500 which counts against the pool. So they were over (bc Prager's slot of 948,600 plus the above puts them at $13,334,100) but not over the little bit extra (5%) they allow without forfeiting a draft pick.

Their bonus pool was $12,990,400 and is now $12,041,800 without Prager's pick. With the Prager pick, they can go to 5% over but pay a 75% tax on the overage, so that's $649,520. Meaning they can spend $13,639,920 meaning the most they could offer Prager was $1,254,420 which is $305,820 over slot. This pool is only for the top 10 round picks and anything over 150k for the 11-20 round picks.

But without the Prager pick, they have less available to offer someone else, as both the slot value and the 5% overage on that pick are gone, so they lose around 50 thousand bucks more than the slot value out of their pool. They're at $12,041,800 plus the 5% so $12,643,890 now as far as pool plus overage, which leaves them a little over 250k in room... ($258,390)  I'm sure they thought they could go 500k over Prager's slot, but Johnson, Jordan and TGA were all a bit more expensive than they figured. 

Prager was ranked at 61 in MLB.com's draft rankings, That pick is $1,418,900 slot value, so that was probably his minimum, or so, which was about 470k more than the slot of the pick where they actually drafted him. 

May have taken 200-300k more than that to sign him (Similar to the Johnson bonus), and that's 750-800K over. 

 

[Ochocinco!]

We get a comp pick for him next year so just look at it as if our 3rd round pick had TJ and we start over again next year!

[Angel Oracle]

Sign Mershon over slot now?

[greginpsca]

1 hour ago, Hubs said:

Yes, but they're not over. They lose the value for Prager, but they are still under their max.

They only had around 300k to offer to Prager over his slot value. Wasn't enough apparently. 

They prioritized the guy with better stuff but a lower floor in Ryan Johnson, who signed for around 700k over slot.

Sucks cuz Prager was born on the day of the 2002 World Series Game 6 and thats a neat story. But he probably got a nice NIL deal from some rich Texan and stayed for one more season, but it may end up backfiring because of his age (21 almost 22. Will be 22 almost 23 next draft. )

 

 

Wait and see in the next draft, he gets picked after the 10th round and gets $150k.

[BTH]

11 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

Sign Mershon over slot now?

Hope so

[greginpsca]

What about Victor & Gervase?

[jsnpritchett]

3 minutes ago, greginpsca said:

What about Victor & Gervase?

I find it kinda odd that Najer Victor hasn't signed yet.  He'll be 23 later this year. He seems like a random pick who didn't appear on any of the top draft prospect lists, so I can't imagine he's trying to hold out for more than the $150K allotment.

Same with Gervase.  He turns 23 next May.  I think he does have some college eligibility left, but why risk going back rather than just starting your career?

[Inside Pitch]

2 hours ago, jsnpritchett said:

He's obviously free to do whatever he wants, but I've always thought taking a risk like that just isn't worth it.  Just take the money and hit the ground running.  He'll be 23 at the end of the next baseball season.  If I was him, I'd much rather spend 2025 pitching in A+/AA at 22 with an organization that has a tendency to move people quickly if they show signs of being major league-ready.

If he's just super committed to Texas A&M, good for him... otherwise he's put himself into a position where he can be drafted even higher and offered even less money and his only option then would be to not sign and re-enter the draft again the next season.

I'm glad the Angels spent the money on the upside -- because they need it.

 

[Stradling]

 

[AngelStew43]

4 hours ago, Stradling said:

Fuck

 

As a Sr. Draftee, there is a good bet that he’s cost himself quite a bit of money.  There is also the injury risk, but if he took the NIL money, more power to him.

[Stradling]

2 minutes ago, AngelStew43 said:

As a Sr. Draftee, there is a good bet that he’s cost himself quite a bit of money.  There is also the injury risk, but if he took the NIL money, more power to him.

We’re discussing in the other thread that he’s a red shirt sophomore. 

[stormngt]

2 hours ago, AngelStew43 said:

As a Sr. Draftee, there is a good bet that he’s cost himself quite a bit of money.  There is also the injury risk, but if he took the NIL money, more power to him.

Is there any documentation of how much college baseball players get in nil money?

[Angel Oracle]

4 minutes ago, stormngt said:

Is there any documentation of how much college baseball players get in nil money?

A&M supposedly offered Prager $500k NIL money.

[stormngt]

19 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

A&M supposedly offered Prager $500k NIL money.

I just have a hard time believing a college baseball player gets that much in NIL.  Baseball is a sport where one or two players dominate.  They do not geberate the attention nor the revenue of basketball and football.

[Inside Pitch]

11 hours ago, stormngt said:

I just have a hard time believing a college baseball player gets that much in NIL.  Baseball is a sport where one or two players dominate.  They do not geberate the attention nor the revenue of basketball and football.

They have a legit shot go be National Champions. Baseball may not generate money but going to and winning the CWS does up a schools profile.

Boosters/alumni are all about that sort if BS, I know I'm preaching to the choir here with you on that.

[Hubs]

17 hours ago, greginpsca said:

Wait and see in the next draft, he gets picked after the 10th round and gets $150k.

He's a sophomore, not a junior. As a senior, he would have no leverage, and so you would be correct, he may not even get 150k. As a junior next year, he will be in the top 5 rounds.

I would bet on a minor increase in his draftability, he might make it to the low 40's. 

But likely he is drafted again in the second or third rounds, and will sign for a similar amount as Ryan Johnson did. 

Edited July 25 by Hubs

[Hubs]

It would be hilarious if he is drafted once again in the third round by the Angels. Or with the compensation pick between the third and fourth rounds.

[jsnpritchett]

13 minutes ago, Hubs said:

He's a sophomore, not a junior. As a senior, he would have no leverage, and so you would be correct, he may not even get 150k. As a junior next year, he will be in the top 5 rounds.

I would bet on a minor increase in his draftability, he might make it to the low 40's. 

But likely he is drafted again in the second or third rounds, and will sign for a similar amount as Ryan Johnson did. 

Yeah, that's what I think is a reasonable outcome.  From a career advancement standpoint, still doesn't seem worth it, but to each his own!

[Hubs]

1 hour ago, jsnpritchett said:

Yeah, that's what I think is a reasonable outcome.  From a career advancement standpoint, still doesn't seem worth it, but to each his own!

Ya, I mean I agree. I don't see another year as Friday night Ace Starter for Texas A&M really improving his development or stock. Even if he snuck into the 1A round or high round 2 (which I think would be the ceiling), you're talking a slot value of $2-3M max.

And he'd then sign for slot. 

So 500k in NIL money plus say 2.5M in slot = 3M.

He would've gotten like $1.25M.

Which means it's $1.75M more. 

But this delays his start in the majors by a year, which is 725k less, and delays the big money until he's probably 30-31, which means that he will make less overall as a 30 or 31 year old free agent pitcher versus 29.

Prager is probably one of the guys in the Canning or Detmers mold as far as minor league service time. 1 year in the minors maybe including a few starts this year the year he was drafted.

Detmers made his debut end of 2021, after being drafted in 2020. 

Canning made his debut in 2019 after being drafted in 2017, not pitching anymore that year, then one full year and three starts in the minors.