Downfall of the "Great Outfield of the Future"

[Angelsjunky]

If there is an aspect of the Angels team over the last five years that is most disappointing and most emblematic of their organizational woes as a whole, it is the outfield.

2019: The Great Outfield of the Future

Dial back five years to the end of 2019. Mike Trout was coming off his third MVP season, having just turned 28 years old. According to Baseball America, the Angels had three outfielders in the top 100 prospects:

#3 Jo Adell

#43 Brandon Marsh

#72 Jordyn Adams

Oh, and Taylor Ward--having fully transitioned from C the year before and breaking out as a hitter in 2018--was mashing in AAA (.306/.427/.584 in 511 PA).

The future of the outfield wasn't just bright, it was scintillating, with dreams of Trout-Adell-Marsh and defensive wizard Adams as the 4th outfielder. And maybe Ward could fill in, while the young guys found their footing in the major leagues.

It was a moment in recent Angels history that felt like the point when things were looking up. The Angels had just had their fourth losing season in a row, and worst record since the 90s, but the future was bright, at least in terms of the outfield. But it was an outfield around which the next contending team could be built. But it wasn't to be.

2020-21: The Future is Still Bright (But I No Longer Need Shades)

Anyhow, the questions that arose back then, and for a year or two after,  were ones related to having too much outfield talent: Who would be better, Adell or Marsh? If Adams took it to another level, how would they find playing time for four guys? Ward looks like he can hit, now we have five potential impact outfielders? What to do, what to do?

The dream began to crumble in 2020. Perhaps that is too strong of a phrase; let's say that glimmers of doubt began to emerge. Not only did all minor league players lose a full season, but the Angels prematurely promoted Jo Adell, who at that point had performed well in a short stint in AA, but looked over-matched in AAA. But Marsh and Adams lost a full season and Trout had a slightly sub-par season. Ward held his own in 34 out of 60 games.

But the future still looked bright at the start of 2021. There was no reason for concern about Trout, Adell could be sent back down for more cooking, Marsh and Adams would be back on track, and Ward was ready to at least be the place-holder for the younger, more talented guys. Meaning, at the start of 2021, 2020 was forgotten and there was no reason not to be hopeful.

2021 wasn't good. Trout went down with a season-ending injury after only 36 games. Ward was solid enough, but more of a 4th outfielder/fill-in type. Adell adjusted well enough to AAA, but was terrible in his limited major league play. Marsh got more playing time and was adequate. Adams stagnated in A+ ball. Overall, there was still hope, but expectations began to be a bit tempered. Maybe we would still get that outfield of the future, but maybe expectations should be very goodness rather than greatness? I mean, with vintage Trout bouncing back, all the Angels really needed was for two of Adell, Marsh, Ward, and Adams to be above average regulars for the outfield to be very good, right?

2022-24: Game Over, Man

I won't go into excruciating details as to 2022 and beyond, but the trajectory wasn't good - it was disastrous. Trout bounced back a bit in 2022, but still missed a quarter of the season, then half of 2023, and most of 2024 so far. Marsh was traded mid-season of 2022 for Logan O'Hoppe, which has thankfully turned out fine. Adell hasn't progressed, and Adams has stagnated and fallen off the prospect radar. Ward showed promise for being something more in 2022-23, but has regressed this year.

So we went from a loaded potential stud outfield of the future in 2019, to this:

Mike Trout: Can't stay healthy, has played in only 46% of team games from 2021-24. He turns 33 next month, which is an age when the production of many, even most, players drop significantly. At this point, we'd probably all be happy with 100-120 games, 4-5 WAR, which is kind of sad for a guy who regularly put up 8+ WAR seasons.

Taylor Ward: After flashing signs of star production in parts of the last couple years, he's settled in as a "fairly valuable" everyday player, but nothing too special. Now on the wrong side of 30 and likely to be traded in the next few weeks.

Brandon Marsh: Departed for Philly mid-season in 2022, is looking like an above average regular: with 6.0 WAR and about a 120 wRC+ in his first 245 games for the Phillies. 

Jo Adell: No longer a spring chicken at 25 years old, Adell remains a "work in progress" with no signs of improving, aside from his defense. He's now put up a 70 wRC+ and -1.9 WAR in his career of 899 PA, and is hitting .181/.244/.382 in 280 PA this year with a 71 wRC+ and -0.7 WAR, which is 189th out of 194 players with 250 PA this year. Meaning, despite a supposed break-out April, 2024 has just been more of the same.

Jordyn Adams: Now 24, Adams has declined in his second year in AAA, going from a respectable (but mediocre for Salt Lake) .267/.361/.465, 95 wRC+ in 2023, to a rather horrendous .243/.310/.317, 62 wRC+ this year. Has looked completely out-matched in his very limited cups-o-coffee.

Really the only silver lining is Logan O'Hoppe. While Marsh has produced more for the Phillies so far, O'Hoppe has been Marsh's equal in 2024. O'Hoppe is 9th among catchers with 1.9 WAR, while Marsh is 8th among centerfielders with 1.8 WAR. Again, both are playing like "quality regulars" - not quite stars, but better than average everyday players. Unless one takes another huge leap forward and the other doesn't, we can call this a wash. But even if one becomes a 4-5 WAR guy and the other 3-4, it is close enough. Both are clearly good players.

Final Thoughts

I know this is all rather depressing, but it is really quite extraordinary--the degree to which the Great Outfield of the Future (circa 2019-20) has failed across the board: The historic collapse of Trout's career, the failure of Adell and Adams to develop even to major league adequacy, Marsh departing to fairer waters, even Ward's brief moment of borderline stardom came back down to earth.

Are you sure you don't believe in curses?

[Angel Oracle]

And who was the GM when Adell and Adams were drafted in the first round?

Good riddance after 2020 to Ineptler!

[Erstad Grit]

Like the great infield of Dallas McPherson, Brandon Wood, and Casey Kotchman. ( HK was fantastic)

[Angelsjunky]

3 hours ago, Erstad Grit said:

Like the great infield of Dallas McPherson, Brandon Wood, and Casey Kotchman. ( HK was fantastic)

Aybar wasn't so bad, either. Callaspo was a solid major leaguer, as was Sean Rodriguez. Lots of guys turned out from that prospect era.

[samwum]

Trading Marsh hurt a lot. The organization really lacks left handed hitting. I also feel like having Marsh would have made it easier to convince Trout to move to LF in an effort to protect his health.

I'm really happy we have O'Hoppe, but its a bummer we had to let go of Marsh.

[TananaBananas]

WTF!!

Trading Marsh for O'Hoppe was an amazing deal! Thank you Perry.

Marsh is just another average Outfielder. O'Hoppe is an all star caliber catcher.

[Angelsjunky]

27 minutes ago, TananaBananas said:

WTF!!

Trading Marsh for O'Hoppe was an amazing deal! Thank you Perry.

Marsh is just another average Outfielder. O'Hoppe is an all star caliber catcher.

Yet this disagrees with actual numbers. 

I actually thought close to the same as you until I looked it up. They're both near the bottom of the top 10 for their position, and both have about 15 guys with 1 or more WAR behind them. C and CF are pretty similar in terms of depth and rarity of performance, with the exception that there are more often superstar performers in CF than catcher, probably due to the physically grueling nature of catcher.

Anyhow, my point being that Marsh and O'Hoppe--this year, at least--are basically the exact time of how good they are relative to other players of their position. You could make an argument that it is harder to find above average catchers than above average centerfielders, at least over longer periods of time (2024 may be an outlier). But they're very similar this year.

Edited July 12 by Angelsjunky

[Justin]

9 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

Are you sure you don't believe in curses?

Yes.

[Vlad27Trout27]

 

In my opinion, it's more about Trout's decline rather than the outfield's overall performance. If Trout stays healthy, our outfield would be quite strong with Ward, Trout, and whoever is in right field. Prospects always carry some risk. Adell hasn't panned out, but Marsh has lived up to his potential and looks like a consistent 3 WAR player. We traded for O'Hoppe, and I'm happy with that move. O'Hoppe is also on track to be a 3 WAR player and has the potential to develop into an All-Star. Out of our four outfield prospects, two have become solid starters, and the other two didn't work out, which is expected. A 50% success rate is still quite good.

If Trout is healthy, he's an MVP-caliber player, which significantly boosts the value of the outfield. 

[Dtwncbad]

Regarding “Great OF of the Future”

I really don’t know how anybody would think Adams would be “great”. . .

Being a great athlete is not a reliable predictor of being a great baseball player.  He never had the baseball skills to ever have deserved a prediction of being great.

I guess if you want to say having those three lock down the whole OF for an era and how that would be “great” then OK.

But Adams should never have been projected as more than a 4th OF, and maybe as a flyer on being a full time starter.

[Inside Pitch]

14 hours ago, TananaBananas said:

WTF!!

Trading Marsh for O'Hoppe was an amazing deal! Thank you Perry.

Marsh is just another average Outfielder. O'Hoppe is an all star caliber catcher.

Offensively O'Hoppe is in the conversation, defensively he's got a ways to go before he's even in the upper third among catchers.  

I was always okay with moving Marsh for a C, and O'Hoppe is already better than any of the names people would have mentioned as prospect C's worth considering trading for -- like Keibert Ruiz, Luis Campusano et al.  

[Angelsjunky]

1 hour ago, Vlad27Trout27 said:

 

In my opinion, it's more about Trout's decline rather than the outfield's overall performance. If Trout stays healthy, our outfield would be quite strong with Ward, Trout, and whoever is in right field. Prospects always carry some risk. Adell hasn't panned out, but Marsh has lived up to his potential and looks like a consistent 3 WAR player. We traded for O'Hoppe, and I'm happy with that move. O'Hoppe is also on track to be a 3 WAR player and has the potential to develop into an All-Star. Out of our four outfield prospects, two have become solid starters, and the other two didn't work out, which is expected. A 50% success rate is still quite good.

If Trout is healthy, he's an MVP-caliber player, which significantly boosts the value of the outfield. 

A 50% success rate for top 30 org prospects, even top 20 prospects is quite good. But Adell was generally considered top 5 major leagues, so I think he's a dud until he proves otherwise. Top 5 guys generally become good major leaguers. Ward is weird, because no one got him being a first round pick - we were all making fun of Dipoto. But he ended up turning out pretty good and being a successful pick, in a very different way than originally envisioned.

But I hear your point about Trout - when he was in his prime, they could throw two replacement players around him and they outfield would still be above average overall.

[Angelsjunky]

1 hour ago, Dtwncbad said:

Regarding “Great OF of the Future”

I really don’t know how anybody would think Adams would be “great”. . .

Being a great athlete is not a reliable predictor of being a great baseball player.  He never had the baseball skills to ever have deserved a prediction of being great.

I guess if you want to say having those three lock down the whole OF for an era and how that would be “great” then OK.

But Adams should never have been projected as more than a 4th OF, and maybe as a flyer on being a full time starter.

I won't call out names, but I remember one regular saying that he has as much upside or more as any of the OF prospects. I think that is understandable, given his athleticism. That person was, I imagine, envisioning what it would be like if he developed actual baseball skills. Great athletes with just good skills become stars. Great athletes with passable skills become excellent fourth outfielders, and it was reasonable to think Adams could develop passable skills.

But again, im my post, I talked about the "Great OF" as being Trout-Adell-Marsh with Adams as 4OF and Ward entering the mix.

[T.G.]

3 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

I won't call out names...

[Duren, Duren]

I've watched Marsh a few times recently. He homered and tripled against the Dodgers in a game  the other day. And is still dynamic and intense. He also seems to be getting better with his patience and knowledge. Plus playing on a very good teams removes excessive pressure. 

Can't really criticize the trade as such. Getting above average all around play from a catcher is hard to find. Plus leadership, which O'Hoppe seems to be developing. 

But over time the physical and mental strain of catching almost every day is much worse than on an outfielder. I suppose he can be moved to first/DH later in his career, but that deletes his defensive value. 

Had the trade not been made the Angels might have dealt any of Adell, Ward or someone else and looked for a catcher elsewhere. Assuming Philly wouldn't have taken them for O'Hoppe. 

And at the time I guess they didn't think Trout would break down so quickly and so often. They really haven't had that veteran, dangerous outfield since the Upton, Trout, Calhoun prime days. 

Long term it should be interesting watching the careers of Marsh and O'Hoppe.  

 

[Angelsjunky]

1 minute ago, T.G. said:

I'll give you a hint: He is also the guy I had in mind for my term, "nonie." A very knowledge prospect guy, but who sometimes gets carried away with certain prospects.

Oh, and his name rhymes with "hotty."

[T.G.]

8 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

I'll give you a hint: He is also the guy I had in mind for my term, "nonie." A very knowledge prospect guy, but who sometimes gets carried away with certain prospects.

Oh, and his name rhymes with "hotty."

I figured as much.

[Angelsjunky]

2 minutes ago, Duren, Duren said:

I've watched Marsh a few times recently. He homered and tripled against the Dodgers in a game  the other day. And is still dynamic and intense. He also seems to be getting better with his patience and knowledge. Plus playing on a very good teams removes excessive pressure. 

Can't really criticize the trade as such. Getting above average all around play from a catcher is hard to find. Plus leadership, which O'Hoppe seems to be developing. 

But over time the physical and mental strain of catching almost every day is much worse than on an outfielder. I suppose he can be moved to first/DH later in his career, but that deletes his defensive value. 

Had the trade not been made the Angels might have dealt any of Adell, Ward or someone else and looked for a catcher elsewhere. Assuming Philly wouldn't have taken them for Marsh. 

And at the time I guess they didn't think Trout would break down so quickly and so often. They really haven't had that veteran, dangerous outfield since the Upton, Trout, Calhoun prime days. 

Long term it should be interesting watching the careers of Marsh and O'Hoppe.  

 

I think both Marsh and O'Hoppe have another level, but suspect Marsh will accrue more career career WAR due to the challenges of catcher. But a 4 WAR catcher is probably more rare than a 5 WAR centerfielder. I think they're similar in numbers in the 2-3 WAR range, but the higher you go above that and the more centerfielders start outnumbering the catchers.

Regardless, O'Hoppe has a good chance of becoming the Angels' best catcher in franchise history. Not a hard bar to cross, but still noteworthy.

As for those Upton-Trout-Calhoun prime days, it was a hot minute. Here are their WAR totals for the years they played together:

2017: Trout 6.8, Calhoun 1.2, Upton 0.6 = 8.6 (+ Maybin's 1.5, Young's 0.7)

2018: Trout 9.5, Upton 2.8, Calhoun 0.3 = 12.6

2019: Trout 7.8, Calhoun 2.1, Upton -0.3 = 9.6

Obviously those are solid to very good total numbers (especially 2018), but the problem is that Calhoun and Upton were never good at the same time. 

[Angelsjunky]

According to Fangraphs, the 11 best Angels outfields were, with top performers:

 

1. 2012: 18.8 (Trout 10.1, Hunter 4.7, Trumbo 2.8, Bourjos 1.3)
2. 1995: 18.6 ((Salmon 5.8, Edmonds 5.3, Anderson 2.7, Phillips 3.7 overall, about 1/3 in OF)
3. 2000: 16.8 (Erstad 8.7, Salmon 4.5, Anderson 2.2, O-Pal 1.7)
4. 2003: 14.3 (Anderson 5.1, DaVanon 4.0, Salmon 2.3, Figgins 1.7, Erstad 1.5)
5. 2004: 13.8 (Vlad 5.9, Figgins 3.5, Guillen 2.7, Davanon 2.1, Anderson 0.8)
6. 2013: 13.6 (Trout 10.1, Hamilton 1.3, Calhoun 1.2, Shuck 0.8, Bourjos 0.6)
7.  
8. 1982: 12.7 (Downing 5.4, Lynn 4.6, Jackson 3.0)
9. 2014: 12.5 (Trout 8.3, Calhoun 3.4, Cowgill 1.4, Hamilton 1.1)
10. 1985: 12.5 (Pettis 3.2, Downing 2.6, Jones 2.3, Beniquez 1.5, Jackson 1.5)
11. 2002: 12.2 (Anderson 3.7, Erstad 3.6, Salmon 3.3, O-Pal 1.2)
12. 2018: 12.1 (Trout 9.5, Upton 2.8, Calhoun 0.3)

I added an 11th because 10th and 11th were so close; 12th is at 11.7. It is also worth noting that the numbers are a bit tricky, as lots of players didn't play entirely in the OF - but it would be impossible to tease apart. 

It is worth noting that all eight of Trout's prime years (2012-19) are among the top 18 Angels outfields by total WAR, and even 2022 comes in at #23. Last year drops to #40, 2021 3rd worst at #62, and so far this year is second to last at #63.

The worst Angels outfield? 1992 at -0.6 WAR! Curtis 1.5, Polonia 0.2, Felix 0.1, lots of guys in the negatives, especially Von Hayes at -0.8.

 

[Angelsjunky]

Oh, the 2012 outfield is the 39th best all-time. The best all-time is, of course, the Yankees of 1927 with 23.5 (Ruth 12.9, Combs 6.8, Meusel 4.2), then Pittsburgh of 1902, and third is the recent Red Sox of 2018, then '41 Yankees, and '90 Athletics.

The '18 Red Sox included Betts best year (10.2), Benintendi (4.4) and Bradley (2.8), but also counts JD Martinez (5.9), though he only played 57 games in the OF.

The '90 Athletics included Henderson's best year (10.2), Canseco (5.2), Dave Henderson (4.4), Jose (1.7). Canseco played about a third of his games at DH.

Rickey's '90 season is one of my favorites to glance over: .325/.439/.577, 190 wRC+, 10.2 fWAR, 65 SB (10 cs), 28 HR, 119 runs, 97 walks, 60 Ks in 136 games played. 

[Chuck]

I saw this card online. Totally forgot about Jones. 

[jsnpritchett]

10 minutes ago, Chuck said:

I saw this card online. Totally forgot about Jones. 

[Inside Pitch]

1 hour ago, Angelsjunky said:

I won't call out names, but I remember one regular saying that he has as much upside or more as any of the OF prospects. I think that is understandable, given his athleticism. That person was, I imagine, envisioning what it would be like if he developed actual baseball skills. Great athletes with just good skills become stars. Great athletes with passable skills become excellent fourth outfielders, and it was reasonable to think Adams could develop passable skills.

But again, im my post, I talked about the "Great OF" as being Trout-Adell-Marsh with Adams as 4OF and Ward entering the mix.

Adams isn't the OFer that got the most misplaced hype among people here -- that would be Trent Deveaux.  People were lining up to declare him something special based on a signing bonus alone.  Nobody had even seen him play and people were ranking him among the top 10 prospects in the system.

Adams has completely regressed and yet you're right, he might still be able to carve out a career as a 4th OFer based on speed and glove alone.  I'd be against it simply because he seems to have checked out.  His body language kind of reminds me of Maitan's disinterested play at times.

 

[Inside Pitch]

23 minutes ago, Chuck said:

I saw this card online. Totally forgot about Jones. 

He's failed to make it but he's played MLB games with four different teams now including the Yankees this season where he's hit .265/.342/.441 in 28 games as a back up UT guy.  That said I watched him make a comical defensive error in LF the one game I DID watch him play.

I hope he finally makes it as a UT guy, he always seemed to be doing well then break something while in the minors.    

[mmc]

17 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

He's failed to make it but he's played MLB games with four different teams now including the Yankees this season where he's hit .265/.342/.441 in 28 games as a back up UT guy.  That said I watched him make a comical defensive error in LF the one game I DID watch him play.

I hope he finally makes it as a UT guy, he always seemed to be doing well then break something while in the minors.    

Seems like many MLB front offices arE still high on him despite the lack of production.  Milwaukee signed him to a major league deal in mid 2023 after he opted out of the MiLB deal with the Dodgers even though he hadn’t played in the majors in 2 years and was terrible and the Yankees claimed him and have kept him on the roster all year this year even though he didn’t produce in Milwaukee either