It's July 1, and the Angels are 36-47.

[Hubs]

They have 13 games remaining until the All-Star Break. The Cubs are the only non-division opponent on their schedule. They've got the A's for three, Rangers for three and Seattle for four, in addition to the Cubs for three. 

After the break they have 10 games until the deadline. Trade deadline this year is July 30th. It is before the game they play that day vs. the Rockies at home. They have Oakland for 7 and Seattle for three.

What record in these 23 games do the Angels need to have so that Arte sells, what record would they refuse to sell, and what record would they need to have to be buyers?

I think if they go 15-8, they might stand pat. If they do better than this, they might consider buying. If they are 13-10 or worse, I think they sell. 

15-8 makes them 51-55, four games under and likely still 5-6 games out of the wild card and division races. 

13-10 makes them 49-57, eight games under and likely 8-10 games out of contention.

To go 15-8, they'd have to win almost every series, likely...2-1 against the A's in Oakland, 2-1 vs. the Cubs, 2-1, and 3-1 vs Seattle means a 9-4 record before the break. Then 2-1 vs Oakland on the road, 2-1 vs the Mariners, and 3-1 vs the A's at home would be 16-7, so they can drop one more in there somewhere. 

16-7 for the record, would make them 52-54, two games under...

 

 

 

 

[Hubs]

They play the A's 10 more times, The entire schedule against the A's takes place from June 24-July 28. A's are 2-8 in their last 10.

Seattle they play 7 times, they've got to win the majority of those games, either 4-3 or 5-2. Seattle is 3-7 in their last 10. 

They play Texas three times, at home, and Texas is 4-6 in their last 10. They play Texas again 7 times in September.

They don't play Houston in this stretch, and that's a good thing as Houston is 9-1 in their last 10. They do have 7 games left vs. Houston, all in September. 

Having a winning record vs. the three teams ahead of them in this division is essential if they want to have a good season. They're currently 5-7 against these teams in division, 3-0 against the A's. 

 

[jsnpritchett]

There is no record within that span that SHOULD make them either stand pat or become buyers.  Any scenario that does not involve them selling off at a minimum any expiring contract would be a complete failure on the part of the front office/management team. 

[Slegnaac]

Having a 16 - 7 would probably mean that some of the expiring contracts are playing well, which could increase their value to other clubs.  

I hope they win every series and sell high.

[TheLordofOuts]

I want Perry to trade for more O'Hoppe-level or better prospects.  

[Angelsjunky]

If they win 24 out of the next 23 games, they should go all in and be buyers.

[jsnpritchett]

2 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

If they win 24 out of the next 23 games, they should go all in and be buyers.

Ok I take back what I said: if they do win 24 games in the next 23, yes, that is a scenario in which I'd be fine with them being buyers.

[Angelsjunky]

3 minutes ago, jsnpritchett said:

Ok I take back what I said: if they do win 24 games in the next 23, yes, that is a scenario in which I'd be fine with them being buyers.

It would be magical.

[The Ghost of Bob Starr]

Shockingly better than I thought it would be. Kudos to Arte. 

[halodground]

57 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

If they win 24 out of the next 23 games, they should go all in and be buyers.

Even then, it would be a 60/50 call for me.

[Jeff Fletcher]

Realistically there’s no way the Angels aren’t sellers. 
 

But what you ought be monitoring are the other bubble teams above them, most notably the Tigers, Blue Jays, Rangers, Cubs.

You should be rooting for them to win as much as possible, so they aren’t sellers. 
 

The best case scenario for the Angels is 5 sellers and 25 buyers. 

[Blarg]

Realistically there are probably 8 buyers each year. 12 are neutral with 10 trying to sell. 

[Inside Pitch]

7 hours ago, jsnpritchett said:

There is no record within that span that SHOULD make them either stand pat or become buyers.  Any scenario that does not involve them selling off at a minimum any expiring contract would be a complete failure on the part of the front office/management team. 

I wish I could like a post multiple times.

I want them to play really well just so they can attract eyes and possibly trade partners.  They should be looking to trade anyone they don't see worthy of extending.  Call it a reload or rebuild or pull a Dipoto and make up some bullshit like he did and "reimagine" the roster, but do it already.

The AL west seems to be transitioning, don't be the only team that stays the same.

[cals]

It would be amazingly Angels to have a great July and delude Moreno into thinking they can contend.  Then don’t sell and buy rentals at the deadline only to go 3-26 in August.

[AngelStew43]

2 hours ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

Realistically there’s no way the Angels aren’t sellers. 
 

But what you ought be monitoring are the other bubble teams above them, most notably the Tigers, Blue Jays, Rangers, Cubs.

You should be rooting for them to win as much as possible, so they aren’t sellers. 
 

The best case scenario for the Angels is 5 sellers and 25 buyers. 

Exactly.  This is how we could obtain a player like Logan O'Hoppe in the first place.  I hope Perry is looking to acquire other young players who also may be blocked.  

[Taylor]

The Angels always seem to go on a hot streak around the ASB, which leads to standing pat or buying. Then they come out of the ASB into their worst stretch of the season.

[Inside Pitch]

9 hours ago, cals said:

It would be amazingly Angels to have a great July and delude Moreno into thinking they can contend.  Then don’t sell and buy rentals at the deadline only to go 3-26 in August.

It would be amazingly realistic.

[BTH]

They better trade everyone with 3 years or less of control remaining.

Their value is only gonna deteriorate after the deadline.

In order to get more core pieces like O’Hoppe and Neto, they’re gonna have to trade the guys with good value.

The rentals aren’t gonna get you anything more than lottery ticket prospects.

[Duren, Duren]

Adell is an interesting question.

No more team control. So it's the majors or a giveaway. 

Every now and then he flashes some great ability but it's never sustained. The longest he sustained very good play was the first month. It really looked like he finally turned the corner. But inexplicably he reverted to his past hitting and base running form. But credit him for improved defense. Which required hard work. 

So coaching and practice helped him improve in the field. But they just haven't translated to hitting and base running. After quite a few years in the system. He's stuck far below the Mendoza line now and his power shows up infrequently. Would that seem to indicate that he's reached his ceiling? The hopes for his great potential now reduced by the reality check of his career till now? Or is there still hope he might recapture whatever it was that he had the first month?

This leads to the question about trades. 

Would another team be tempted? And feel they can extract more from him than the Angels have in a different environment? Not necessarily counting on him as a major addition if available at a modest price? 

And would Perry trade him or let his career play out indefinitely? 

Ideally Adell has a hot July and recency bias kicks in. Then it opens up a better trade scenario on one hand. That is, if there are interesting enough offers.  And on the other, if he is contributing to winning baseball then maybe Perry feels that Adell finally has locked into his better form. And has the longer term future originally anticipated. 

Should be an interesting month on this and a few other players.But Adell is most intriguing as a home grown player who they give up on or stay the course.

 

[Inside Pitch]

39 minutes ago, Duren, Duren said:

Adell is an interesting question.

No more team control. So it's the majors or a giveaway. 

When people say control they mean not eligible for FA.  He's still under team control for 5 more years, he's just out of options.

[DMVol]

2 hours ago, Duren, Duren said:

Adell is an interesting question.

No more team control. So it's the majors or a giveaway. 

Every now and then he flashes some great ability but it's never sustained. The longest he sustained very good play was the first month. It really looked like he finally turned the corner. But inexplicably he reverted to his past hitting and base running form. But credit him for improved defense. Which required hard work. 

So coaching and practice helped him improve in the field. But they just haven't translated to hitting and base running. After quite a few years in the system. He's stuck far below the Mendoza line now and his power shows up infrequently. Would that seem to indicate that he's reached his ceiling? The hopes for his great potential now reduced by the reality check of his career till now? Or is there still hope he might recapture whatever it was that he had the first month?

This leads to the question about trades. 

Would another team be tempted? And feel they can extract more from him than the Angels have in a different environment? Not necessarily counting on him as a major addition if available at a modest price? 

And would Perry trade him or let his career play out indefinitely? 

Ideally Adell has a hot July and recency bias kicks in. Then it opens up a better trade scenario on one hand. That is, if there are interesting enough offers.  And on the other, if he is contributing to winning baseball then maybe Perry feels that Adell finally has locked into his better form. And has the longer term future originally anticipated. 

Should be an interesting month on this and a few other players.But Adell is most intriguing as a home grown player who they give up on or stay the course.

 

I wonder if there is another team with a similar player--out of options, underperforming--who we could talk to.  Sort of the equivalent of a bad contract for bad contract trade.  Not sure it is going to matter because I don't think Adell is ever going to be anything more than a great athlete with limited baseball skills. Taking a flyer on another team's Jo Adell might work.  I don't have any other bright ideas. 

[Second Base]

It would be the most Angels thing ever if they got red hot and then figuring they’ve got Trout and Rendon coming back, so they better trade their most recent hit draft picks for Garrett Crochet, only to have his elbow explode upon stepping foot into the clubhouse.

[Redondo]

[Tank]

3 hours ago, Second Base said:

It would be the most Angels thing ever if they got red hot and then figuring they’ve got Trout and Rendon coming back, so they better trade their most recent hit draft picks for Garrett Crochet, only to have his elbow explode upon stepping foot into the clubhouse.

and then trout and rendon get hurt again before september.

[Angel Oracle]

36-49 = sell!