OC Register: Angels Q&A: Does a hot June affect their expected role as sellers?

[AngelsWin.com]

OAKLAND — The Angels are just past the midpoint of the season, and they’ve actually been playing some of their best baseball.

After going 11-19 through the end of April and 10-17 in May, the Angels were 15-11 in June.

Ironically, their improved play lately actually had some of you concerned when we put out a call for questions, so we’ll start there.

Q: There isn’t some internal delusion that they won’t sell and they’ll bounce back right?!?!?! — @4VertsOnNCAA14

A: It’s understandable for fans to be cynical based on what happened last year. The Angels got hot at the end of July, and became buyers, shipping away prospects and failing to add the prospects they could have added by trading Shohei Ohtani.

This year, however, they’re in much worse shape. On the morning of July 1 last year, the Angels were 44-40 and two games out of a playoff spot. Today, they’re 36-47 and 9½ games out of a playoff spot.

Also, Ohtani presented a much different calculation than anyone on this year’s team. There was more to be gained by keeping him (maybe making the playoffs, maybe re-signing him) and more to be gained by trading him (several very good prospects).

This year it’s not going to matter so much for the long-term health of the franchise what they do.

None of the players the Angels could trade is going to yield even a single top 100 prospect.

They certainly could get a handful of young players back, but they’re more likely to simply add depth than get anyone truly impactful.

Q: Please, name the players you think will get traded at the deadline? — @vociferous

A: Closer Carlos Estévez is the top of the list. He’s going to be a free agent at the end of the season, and he’s been pitching very well. Plus, every team is always looking for bullpen help, specifically someone who can pitch the eighth or ninth inning.

Right-hander Luis Garcia also has pitched well for most of the season, minus a couple of blowup games, and his raw stuff profiles pretty well. Left-hander Matt Moore has been better for the last month, so if he keeps that up in July, he could also be moved.

After that, it gets more difficult.

Left-hander Tyler Anderson, right-hander Griffin Canning, infielder Luis Rengifo and outfielder Taylor Ward all could be valuable to other teams. But all of them also remain under control to the Angels for next season, too.

When the Angels are deciding what to do with those players, that’s where a June-July hot streak might make a difference. Even if the Angels believe they’re too far back for 2024, significant progress from their young players could convince them not to give up on 2025. Trading Anderson, for example, would mean a lot of innings to replace next year.

The guess here is that General Manager Perry Minasian would be open to trading anyone, but he won’t be giving those players away for lottery tickets the way he might with an impending free agent. It would have to be for players that he really likes, who could help sooner rather than later. When Minasian traded Brandon Marsh in 2022, it was to get Logan O’Hoppe.

Q: Are the Angels being overly protective and cautious with (Mike Trout) who by most measures has exceeded the normal expected recovery time for the injury he suffered? Or is something else at play? — @JMTLAWYER

A: Trout has now been out for about two months since surgery to repair a torn meniscus. He admitted that the rehab has been slower than he hoped, but he finally seems to be seeing some progress.

The Angels certainly aren’t holding Trout back. It’s all about what Trout feels. He’s been a slow healer in the past, and that’s apparently what’s happening again.

Q: I am sold on Zach Neto as one of the key pieces to the future of the franchise but not so much on Nolan Schanuel.  I see him as an average MLB player. Is it just me, because I do not see anything special. — @FeelNumbRaul

A: Normally, you wouldn’t have seen anything with Schanuel because he would have been in the minors all this time. He’s 22 and he hasn’t even been a professional baseball player for a year yet.

It’s too early to know what he’ll be, but he’s ahead of the curve simply from getting all of this major league experience so quickly.

Also, he doesn’t have to be “special” to be valuable. “Average” major league players are not that easy to find.

Q: With the draft coming up, is 2021 “all pitchers” draft by the Angels seen as a success, failure or not yet decided ? — @taz1601

A: It’s too soon to tell. There are only eight players in all of baseball from the first round of the 2021 draft who have produced a positive WAR in the majors, according to Baseball-Reference, and Angels first-round pick Sam Bachman is one of them.

The total WAR produced by the Angels draft class is 0.5, with Bachman and Chase Silseth as the only ones to reach the majors. The Kansas City Royals picked one spot ahead of the Angels, and they haven’t gotten anyone to the majors. The New York Mets picked right after the Angels, and they have one player who has produced 0.4 WAR.

If Bachman and Silseth become productive major leaguers, that alone will make it a successful draft.

As for the others, the Angels traded left-hander Ky Bush in the Lucas Giolito deal last summer. Right-hander Ryan Costeiu is the only other pitcher from that draft currently ranked among the Angels’ top 30 prospects by either Baseball America or MLB Pipeline. He’s pitching in high-A now after missing last year because of Tommy John surgery.

Q: When will Arte sell the team, please !!! — @alvarep

A: This is the question you all have, and the only answer I have is what Moreno told me four months ago.

“I am here long term,” Moreno said.

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Q: How long is Perry’s leash? he’s gotta be out come season end right? — @CartiHalos

A: Minasian’s four-year contract expires at the end of this season.

It’s worth noting that 2020 was the last year of GM Billy Eppler’s deal, but Moreno quietly gave him an extension through 2021, even though he hadn’t had a winning season. After another losing record in the pandemic-shortened season, Moreno fired Eppler anyway.

What this tells us is that Moreno can be patient with losing if he feels there’s progress. But he can change his mind quickly, too. So, he still could go either way with Minasian.

UP NEXT

Angels (RHP Jose Soriano, 4-5, 3.48 ERA) at A’s (RHP Mitch Spence, 4-4, 4.35), Tuesday, 6:40 p.m., Bally Sports West, 830 AM

View the full article

[Angels 1961]

On 7/1/2024 at 10:30 AM, AngelsWin.com said:

OAKLAND — The Angels are just past the midpoint of the season, and they’ve actually been playing some of their best baseball.

After going 11-19 through the end of April and 10-17 in May, the Angels were 15-11 in June.

Ironically, their improved play lately actually had some of you concerned when we put out a call for questions, so we’ll start there.

Q: There isn’t some internal delusion that they won’t sell and they’ll bounce back right?!?!?! — @4VertsOnNCAA14

A: It’s understandable for fans to be cynical based on what happened last year. The Angels got hot at the end of July, and became buyers, shipping away prospects and failing to add the prospects they could have added by trading Shohei Ohtani.

This year, however, they’re in much worse shape. On the morning of July 1 last year, the Angels were 44-40 and two games out of a playoff spot. Today, they’re 36-47 and 9½ games out of a playoff spot.

Also, Ohtani presented a much different calculation than anyone on this year’s team. There was more to be gained by keeping him (maybe making the playoffs, maybe re-signing him) and more to be gained by trading him (several very good prospects).

This year it’s not going to matter so much for the long-term health of the franchise what they do.

None of the players the Angels could trade is going to yield even a single top 100 prospect.

They certainly could get a handful of young players back, but they’re more likely to simply add depth than get anyone truly impactful.

Q: Please, name the players you think will get traded at the deadline? — @vociferous

A: Closer Carlos Estévez is the top of the list. He’s going to be a free agent at the end of the season, and he’s been pitching very well. Plus, every team is always looking for bullpen help, specifically someone who can pitch the eighth or ninth inning.

Right-hander Luis Garcia also has pitched well for most of the season, minus a couple of blowup games, and his raw stuff profiles pretty well. Left-hander Matt Moore has been better for the last month, so if he keeps that up in July, he could also be moved.

After that, it gets more difficult.

Left-hander Tyler Anderson, right-hander Griffin Canning, infielder Luis Rengifo and outfielder Taylor Ward all could be valuable to other teams. But all of them also remain under control to the Angels for next season, too.

When the Angels are deciding what to do with those players, that’s where a June-July hot streak might make a difference. Even if the Angels believe they’re too far back for 2024, significant progress from their young players could convince them not to give up on 2025. Trading Anderson, for example, would mean a lot of innings to replace next year.

The guess here is that General Manager Perry Minasian would be open to trading anyone, but he won’t be giving those players away for lottery tickets the way he might with an impending free agent. It would have to be for players that he really likes, who could help sooner rather than later. When Minasian traded Brandon Marsh in 2022, it was to get Logan O’Hoppe.

Q: Are the Angels being overly protective and cautious with (Mike Trout) who by most measures has exceeded the normal expected recovery time for the injury he suffered? Or is something else at play? — @JMTLAWYER

A: Trout has now been out for about two months since surgery to repair a torn meniscus. He admitted that the rehab has been slower than he hoped, but he finally seems to be seeing some progress.

The Angels certainly aren’t holding Trout back. It’s all about what Trout feels. He’s been a slow healer in the past, and that’s apparently what’s happening again.

Q: I am sold on Zach Neto as one of the key pieces to the future of the franchise but not so much on Nolan Schanuel.  I see him as an average MLB player. Is it just me, because I do not see anything special. — @FeelNumbRaul

A: Normally, you wouldn’t have seen anything with Schanuel because he would have been in the minors all this time. He’s 22 and he hasn’t even been a professional baseball player for a year yet.

It’s too early to know what he’ll be, but he’s ahead of the curve simply from getting all of this major league experience so quickly.

Also, he doesn’t have to be “special” to be valuable. “Average” major league players are not that easy to find.

Q: With the draft coming up, is 2021 “all pitchers” draft by the Angels seen as a success, failure or not yet decided ? — @taz1601

A: It’s too soon to tell. There are only eight players in all of baseball from the first round of the 2021 draft who have produced a positive WAR in the majors, according to Baseball-Reference, and Angels first-round pick Sam Bachman is one of them.

The total WAR produced by the Angels draft class is 0.5, with Bachman and Chase Silseth as the only ones to reach the majors. The Kansas City Royals picked one spot ahead of the Angels, and they haven’t gotten anyone to the majors. The New York Mets picked right after the Angels, and they have one player who has produced 0.4 WAR.

If Bachman and Silseth become productive major leaguers, that alone will make it a successful draft.

As for the others, the Angels traded left-hander Ky Bush in the Lucas Giolito deal last summer. Right-hander Ryan Costeiu is the only other pitcher from that draft currently ranked among the Angels’ top 30 prospects by either Baseball America or MLB Pipeline. He’s pitching in high-A now after missing last year because of Tommy John surgery.

Q: When will Arte sell the team, please !!! — @alvarep

A: This is the question you all have, and the only answer I have is what Moreno told me four months ago.

“I am here long term,” Moreno said.

Related Articles

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• Los Angeles Angels |
  Angels’ Rendon could be ready before All-Star break after more than two months out
• Los Angeles Angels |
  Kevin Pillar’s walk-off hit leads Angels past Tigers in 10th inning
• Los Angeles Angels |
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• Los Angeles Angels |
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Q: How long is Perry’s leash? he’s gotta be out come season end right? — @CartiHalos

A: Minasian’s four-year contract expires at the end of this season.

It’s worth noting that 2020 was the last year of GM Billy Eppler’s deal, but Moreno quietly gave him an extension through 2021, even though he hadn’t had a winning season. After another losing record in the pandemic-shortened season, Moreno fired Eppler anyway.

What this tells us is that Moreno can be patient with losing if he feels there’s progress. But he can change his mind quickly, too. So, he still could go either way with Minasian.

UP NEXT

Angels (RHP Jose Soriano, 4-5, 3.48 ERA) at A’s (RHP Mitch Spence, 4-4, 4.35), Tuesday, 6:40 p.m., Bally Sports West, 830 AM

View the full article

I'm leaning towards keeping Ward and Rengifo. I try to sign Rengifo to a 3 to 4 year deal this winter. Ward you can trade this off season or next year. Keeping Ward fills an OF spot and halos short of OF right now. Those 2 with Neto, O'Hoppe and Schanuel have 5 spots locked for 2025. Add Trout and Rendon makes it 7 spots. Anderson I trade and do not offer Sandoval a contract using that money for flexibility in off season. Will need to built BP in off season but halos have some young arms to fill some of those spots. 

[Angelsjunky]

On 7/1/2024 at 11:30 AM, AngelsWin.com said:

This year it’s not going to matter so much for the long-term health of the franchise what they do.

None of the players the Angels could trade is going to yield even a single top 100 prospect.

They certainly could get a handful of young players back, but they’re more likely to simply add depth than get anyone truly impactful.

Gonna have to disagree with you here, and use a quote from you later in the article:

On 7/1/2024 at 11:30 AM, AngelsWin.com said:

Also, he doesn’t have to be “special” to be valuable. “Average” major league players are not that easy to find.

Just because the Angels aren't going to be adding any top 100 prospects this deadline doesn't mean "it's not going to matter so much for the long-term health of the franchise what they do," or that a handful of prospects outside the the top 100 wouldn't potentially help the long-term. And adding depth is very beneficial to an organization that has no depth.

Sure, there's no potential for missing out on a mega-package for Ohtani like last year. And barring a 20-game win streak, it is highly unlikely that they gut the farm further. But they can still build significant, impactful depth. As I pointed out elsewhere, any 45 or 45+ FV prospect (or prospects in the 100-200ish range) is instantly in their top 10. The farm is just that bad. Any of Estevez, Anderson, Ward, Rengifo, and maybe Canning could bring in a 45/45+ FV prospect, and it isn't impossible that some team is willing to hand over a 50 FV (top 50-100) guy for one of them.

[Blarg]

Sandoval going down means you have to keep starting pitching if you want to compete next season. You've already lost 170 innings or 33 starts, you can't double or triple that number by trading away Canning and Anderson because it has to come from somewhere. Free agency is an expensive proposition to fill 340+ innings or 66 starts. 

What does the rotation look like next season and how do those pitchers project to sustain a 33 outing season? How much depth are you left with behind that starting five if you are already promoting from within? Is that depth MLB quality or are you looking at bullpen games should one pitcher go down.

If you have no intention of competing next season then trade away. But the probability of getting a straight across value like a Marsh for O'Hoppe isn't there with what you are talking of trading. 

[Slegnaac]

Good point @Blarg, people do forget that part of their trade suggestions.

[BTH]

35 minutes ago, Blarg said:

What does the rotation look like next season and how do those pitchers project to sustain a 33 outing season? How much depth are you left with behind that starting five if you are already promoting from within? Is that depth MLB quality or are you looking at bullpen games should one pitcher go down.

I think these next few weeks before the deadline will be instructive in that. Daniel and Contreras are getting a chance to start in the majors while you have Detmers, Silseth, Dana, Bachman, and Kochanowicz getting starts in AAA/AA.

That could leave you with a depth chart of:

Soriano

Detmers

Silseth

Daniel

Contreras

Bachman

Dana

Kochanowicz

I don’t see them trading Canning because I don’t think his value is that high. You can make a very reasonable case that he’d have more value as a rental next deadline (if he has a solid first half) than he does now with 1.5 years of control.

[Duren, Duren]

Not enough time before the deadline for Daniel, and Contreras to a slightly lesser degree,  to show if they have the stuff and temperament to be longer term regular starters. Even Soriano, who has basically not even had a full half season starting.  If you project them into next year and beyond you better have confidence that any or all of them can fill spots instead of veterans like Anderson and Sandoval. Or trade Canning. 

Going with them sounds smart in theory. But there just hasn't been a big enough sample size. 

Soriano has the tools but lacks consistency and control of his pitches. But he should be able to improve with more experience. Contreras hasn't stood out but again, a small sample size. Daniel with one game? Who knows what's going to happen with more starts? Can't project from that one game even though he was good. 

Silseth has also had a small sample size, showing potential, but so far hasn't been ready for regular rotation use. 

The others in the system are even more of a mystery. 

So you would think if a starter is traded at least another one or more with higher potential or some major league experience would have to be part of a deal. Or multiple deals. 

Anderson's play this month will be a major factor in what happens with him. 

 

 

[Blarg]

52 minutes ago, BTH said:

That could leave you with a depth chart of:

Soriano

Detmers

Silseth

Daniel

Contreras

Bachman

Dana

Kochanowicz

You have one pitcher with extended MLB experience (currently in AAA trying to sort his game out) and two with a couple scattered starts. This is a non competitive roster.

[jsnpritchett]

25 minutes ago, Duren, Duren said:

Not enough time before the deadline for Daniel, and Contreras to a slightly lesser degree,  to show if they have the stuff and temperament to be longer term regular starters. Even Soriano, who has basically not even had a full half season starting.  If you project them into next year and beyond you better have confidence that any or all of them can fill spots instead of veterans like Anderson and Sandoval. Or trade Canning. 

Going with them sounds smart in theory. But there just hasn't been a big enough sample size. 

Soriano has the tools but lacks consistency and control of his pitches. But he should be able to improve with more experience. Contreras hasn't stood out but again, a small sample size. Daniel with one game? Who knows what's going to happen with more starts? Can't project from that one game even though he was good. 

Silseth has also had a small sample size, showing potential, but so far hasn't been ready for regular rotation use. 

The others in the system are even more of a mystery. 

So you would think if a starter is traded at least another one or more with higher potential or some major league experience would have to be part of a deal. Or multiple deals. 

Anderson's play this month will be a major factor in what happens with him. 

 

 

I still don't really understand this stance.  Anderson and Canning are only controlled through next year, and Sandoval through '26.  So the first two definitely aren't part of any sort of long-term (or even mid-term) plans for the Angels--and it's doubtful at this point that Sandoval is either, given his surgery.

I'm not concerned in the slightest about having enough veterans to cover starts next season.  Fill in gaps where needed, even if the bulk innings are coming from AAAA types.

[jsnpritchett]

2 minutes ago, Blarg said:

You have one pitcher with extended MLB experience and two with a couple scattered starts. This is a non competitive roster.

Neither is this year's, even with Anderson, Canning, and Sandoval.

 

[Blarg]

Just now, jsnpritchett said:

Neither is this year's, even with Anderson, Canning, and Sandoval.

 

I guess you want to be contrarian rather than look at the facts. The facts are the Angels cannot replace 66 to 99 starts with the current depth chart. They already have to dip into free agency just to fill out a 5 man rotation with Sandoval gone.

Making next years chances considerably worse isn't moving towards any goal other than say, hey, we tried, we traded a starter, for a couple of prospects that won't be on the starting staff. 

[Dtwncbad]

It might help clarify the question if somebody at least shared a photo of this “hot June.”  

[jsnpritchett]

1 minute ago, Blarg said:

I guess you want to be contrarian rather than look at the facts. The facts are the Angels cannot replace 66 to 99 starts with the current depth chart. They already have to dip into free agency just to fill out a 5 man rotation with Sandoval gone.

Making next years chances considerably worse isn't moving towards any goal other than say, hey, we tried, we traded a starter, for a couple of prospects that won't be on the starting staff. 

I'm not trying to be a contrarian.  I just don't think it's going to make a ton of difference for next year if Canning and/or Anderson get traded.  Even with both of them next year, my guess is that the team isn't all that competitive.  I don't really care if the team is 76-86 vs 68-94 or whatever.  It's all the same to me once you're talking .500 or below.  If they do trade one or both of those guys and then fill in the gaps with minor league depth or marginal free agent starters, while acquiring some additional minor league depth pieces/dart throws, I'm okay with that.

[Stradling]

I guess I see it like this. You are paying $13 million for Anderson’s innings next year. I’d rather trade Anderson, get what you can for him, which could be a very useful, cost controlled, piece for the future. Then go into free agency and replace Anderson with the money freed up.  

[Taylor]

38 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

It might help clarify the question if somebody at least shared a photo of this “hot June.”  

Spoiler

 

[Taylor]

Anyone suggesting we keep Tyler Anderson is being foolish. 

[tdawg87]

We aren't competing next year either so trade Anderson and Canning. Who cares who you fill the innings with?

Just hope that Dana, Daniels, Kerry, Soriano, Bachman, and Silseth etc... can improve/move forward. We also still have Detmers who hopefully gets his shit together. 

Not to mention I'd expect to get at least a couple arms back from all the trade pieces we have. 

See what we have with all these guys, then maybe in 2026 we look at supplementing the rotation through FA. 

Of course if they could somehow convince Burnes to sign here then by all means...

 

[Angelsjunky]

With Anderson, you you can theoretically swap him for a higher upside (and cheaper) pitching prospect and save $13 million in the process. You swap current value for future value. There is risk, of course, but there's also potential reward, and come 2026, he'd be gone anyway - so you're only risking next year, and they really shouldn't be thinking about anything other than re-building the farm. 

We (or the Angels) need to get out of this mentality that "it is just an off year - we adjust and retool for a run next year. Just a few tweaks and maybe one, just one, big splash and we're good to go!" Thankfully they seem to have shifted course last offseason, but they need to stay the course and be single-minded and patient on the task at hand.

In other words, unless they want to go back to the the cycle of the last decade, they need to tighten the belt for a few years and focus on restocking the farm and fixing their development program. 

This is not to say that it is impossible that they start looking vaguely competitive in the next couple years. But if they do, it will--or should be--because of the maturation of young players, not because they kept and brought in free agents to dry to shorten the clock. Meaning, cultivate the farm, see what happens. But be patient. 

Or rather, they can shorten the clock a bit - but they should only do so through re-stocking the farm, and maybe even bringing him some AA/AAA prospects, and hopefully a good draft.

And really, they should be one-pointed about this. Every thing they do should be about the future. They can even be vague about what the "future" means, but get out of the mentality of "How do we get back to the playoffs as soon as possible" and into a mentality of cultivation and farm development. One step at a time. If you build it, they will come...but the problem is, they haven't built it, and have continued to tear it down, again and again, and instead tried patch jobs for the last decade, leaving the organization in shambles.

So with Anderson, he's a classic example of what the Angels should be doing: re-investing current value for future value. 

[BTH]

7 hours ago, Blarg said:

You have one pitcher with extended MLB experience (currently in AAA trying to sort his game out) and two with a couple scattered starts. This is a non competitive roster.

It’s a non competitive roster even if you keep Anderson and Canning.

[jsnpritchett]

3 minutes ago, BTH said:

It’s a non competitive roster even if you keep Anderson and Canning.

[Angel Oracle]

The only guy to try to sign to larger money is Burnes.   Otherwise, forget about it.

They need even just one GOOD pitcher with EXTENSIVE EXPERIENCE in the rotation to lead the way for the others.

And if he goes elsewhere, at least they tried.

Edited July 4 by Angel Oracle

[Angel Oracle]

After these first two disgraceful games, I predict a 10-15 July record. 

[SlappyUtilityMIF]

NO, Trade everybody!!!

[Angel Oracle]

I guess Rengifo trade is off the table.

Focus on Anderson, Estevez, and Moore.

[Dtwncbad]

As a fan I want to be entertained, I want to see change, and I want something to be excited about going forward.

I have my fingers crossed that the Angels are the most active team in trades at the deadline.

Wouldn’t it be nice if the Angel had a great draft and also added multiple high quality prospects to system from trade activity?

Also, would very high trade activity be evidence that Perry is getting a new contract to be here?  I am not sure he would be given the authority to be super aggressive if ownership didn’t believe in him long term.  If you think you need a new GM, you probably don’t let the one you don’t believe in make tons of move affecting your future.