If the Angels committed to a full rebuild...

[Taylor]

How many additional crappy seasons would it take for the organization to turn around?

It feels hopeless right now. This is the tenth consecutive shit season, and it's been the worst we've seen.

But say Arte were to be injected with anti-dementia drugs and suddenly saw logic, committing to a full rebuild, by what year would the Angels have a successful organization?

[BTH]

I voted three.

If you trade all the rentals + all the guys with 2-3 years left, you’ll get an influx of talent.

In 3 years, only Trout would be on the books.

So then you’ll probably have upwards of $150M to extend the core guys like O’Hoppe/Neto/Soriano and supplement the roster via free agency.

And the guys you traded for + 1st round picks in 2024/2025 should be making their debuts by then.

[Chuck]

From everything I know, even as today, Arte has Perry on lockdown as far as dealing any player that isn't a free agent at season end. 

[totdprods]

Just now, Chuck said:

From everything I know, even as today, Arte has Perry on lockdown as far as dealing any player that isn't a free agent at season end. 

Not necessarily a bad thing.

[jsnpritchett]

3 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Not necessarily a bad thing.

Zero reason to not make Anderson available right now.

[totdprods]

7 minutes ago, jsnpritchett said:

Zero reason to not make Anderson available right now.

I was just coming back to edit and say Anderson is the exception. And I also imagine he’s absolutely dealt this summer.

It’s Ward, Rengifo, and lesser degree Sandoval, Adell and Canning where I can understand some hesitation dealing them. If Arte decides he needs to pony up cash this winter again because he likes the way Ron is working with the team, what the names above are doing, and what the kids like Schanuel, Neto and O’Hoppe are showing, plunking some money down again (like, for real) could push the team back into pseudo-contention as soon as 2025. I mean, the AL West isn’t really a juggernaut anymore.

Too early for me to know for sure if I was GM, but if the deadline was this week I’d be moving Anderson, Ward, all expiring vets and at least listening on Canning or Sandoval. I’d keep Rengifo because our infield depth is just a little too thin still and we could even trot him back into the OF if need be, plus he has one extra year of control (I think) versus Ward and I still think he may have another level he could reach. The average and SBs and discipline have ticked up this year, I think there’s more power to be had still.

Edited June 14 by totdprods

[totdprods]

I really don’t think this team has been as bad as their record indicates, and I don’t think the youth has struggled as much as their stats show. They’re not good, not yet, but they haven’t totally fallen on their asses either. The rotation has really stabilized as the year has gone on. The lineup has struggled a lot the last couple of weeks, but was pretty solid for a stretch before that, and without really any veteran assistance. The bullpen hasn’t been good, but it was almost always a placeholder bullpen intended to be replaced internally this year or next, or externally again this winter. 

It’s a young team prone to inconsistency and cold streaks, and that’s exactly what’s happened.

[Chuck]

8 minutes ago, totdprods said:

I was just coming back to edit and say Anderson is the exception. And I also imagine he’s absolutely dealt this summer.

It’s Ward, Rengifo, and lesser degree Sandoval, Adell and Canning where I can understand some hesitation dealing them. If Arte decides he needs to pony up cash this winter again because he likes the way Ron is working with the team, what the names above are doing, and what the kids like Schanuel, Neto and O’Hoppe are showing, plunking some money down again (like, for real) could push the team back into pseudo-contention as soon as 2025. I mean, the AL West isn’t really a juggernaut anymore.

Too early for me to know for sure if I was GM, but if the deadline was this week I’d be moving Anderson, Ward, all expiring vets and at least listening on Canning or Sandoval. I’d keep Rengifo because our infield depth is just a little too thin still and we could even trot him back into the OF if need be, plus he has one extra year of control (I think) versus Ward and I still think he may have another level he could reach. The average and SBs and discipline have ticked up this year, I think there’s more power to be had still.

I do want to keep Luis Rengifo unless the Angels are blown away with talent that's super close.

Doubtful that happens. 

[BTH]

15 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Not necessarily a bad thing.

It is a bad thing.

The GM should have autonomy to make the best moves he sees fit for the org.

And if the owner doesn’t trust that GM, he shouldn’t be employed.

[BTH]

Just now, Chuck said:

I do want to keep Luis Rengifo unless the Angels are blown away with talent that's super close.

That only works if there’s an extension.

Otherwise, it’d be dumb to keep him.

[totdprods]

2 minutes ago, BTH said:

It is a bad thing.

The GM should have autonomy to make the best moves he sees fit for the org.

And if the owner doesn’t trust that GM, he shouldn’t be employed.

It’s not that binary. What if Arte likes what Perry does with drafting/selling and wants to keep him around this season for that, but fully intends to replace him and also spend some more this winter with a new GM?

Edited June 14 by totdprods

[BTH]

6 minutes ago, totdprods said:

They’re not good, not yet, but they haven’t totally fallen on their asses either.

Schanuel, Detmers, and Moniak have.

6 minutes ago, totdprods said:

The bullpen hasn’t been good, but it was almost always a placeholder bullpen intended to be replaced internally this year or next, or externally again this winter. 

The problem with that is young guys could’ve been given a chance these first few months.

Now, they’ll get a couple months at the end of the season and it’s gonna be hard to judge them on a 15-20 inning sample.

[BTH]

1 minute ago, totdprods said:

It’s not that binary. What if Arte likes what Perry does with drafting/selling and wants to keep him around this season for that, but fully intends to replace him and also spend some more this winter with a new GM?

If he likes what Perry does selling, then why is he placing restrictions on him?

[totdprods]

Just now, BTH said:

If he likes what Perry does selling, then why is he placing restrictions on him?

Because he wants to keep controlled guys around for a 2025 team that he’s spent some money on. 

Perry did well selling Syndergaard for Moniak and Sanchez, even if Moniak hasn’t done jack this year. The Marsh for O’Hoppe wasn’t a sell, but still a good trade.

And I’m critical personally on Perry’s drafting still, but I can understand an argument that he’s drafting well. Plus it would be kinda dumb to boot Perry right now with the draft right around the corner, nor would it do anything to help the Angels’ broader image of dysfunction. Might as well let Perry finish out the year.

[notherhalo]

Our window to get a haul from Ohtani and Trout has long sailed, were not getting all kinds of T100 prospects for Taylor Ward and Estevez

Allegedly we have a weak scouting department, development department, and the list goes on

We havent had great picks despite 10 years of sucking and nothing is new here

 

Im an amatuer, but I dont see how anything but luck can make us compete in <5 years, maybe longer, without a change in all the above

Maybe get some luck with nice picks over the next 2-3 years and wait another 2-3 for them to develop, than trade those above average players for blue chip prospects

[totdprods]

12 minutes ago, BTH said:

Schanuel, Detmers, and Moniak have.

The problem with that is young guys could’ve been given a chance these first few months.

Now, they’ll get a couple months at the end of the season and it’s gonna be hard to judge them on a 15-20 inning sample.

Neto, O’Hoppe and Soriano haven’t.

I don’t think it’s fair yet to say Schanuel has fallen on his ass. He barely played professionally last year, there’s no real idea yet who he is. He’s like 400 PA into his career, most players aren’t in the bigs by that point and he’s done pretty much all of his development at this level. I think he should go to AAA if something doesn’t click in the next couple weeks, perhaps even as soon as Drury and Sano have returned.

Detmers is in his fourth season…he’s young but he’s no longer inexperienced, and he looked like an ace after four starts and still has some metrics supporting that he’s just had awful luck since then. His start in AAA last night was solid. I think he’ll be back in a couple weeks once Anderson is traded and be back to average or better.

Moniak has crashed, I’ll give you that.

We’re not a competitive team this year or next. 15-20 IP samples for relievers isn’t going to make or break us this year or next. They’ll have opportunities this year and next, and it’s also fair to say none of the AA guys were truly ready to begin this year either. I’d actually do the same thing with the pen next year too. Stock it with vets on 1-yr deals who can be shopped as the year goes on, or easily DFA’ed. The young relief arms pool is fine as depth this year and next, no need to move them along to use their innings up on a team that isn’t competitive. Ideally by end of 2025 this team is starting to coalesce and we can roll into 2026 with a very promising young core in the lineup, rotation and bullpen.

Edited June 14 by totdprods

[BTH]

14 minutes ago, totdprods said:

And I’m critical personally on Perry’s drafting still, but I can understand an argument that he’s drafting well. Plus it would be kinda dumb to boot Perry right now with the draft right around the corner, nor would it do anything to help the Angels’ broader image of dysfunction. Might as well let Perry finish out the year.

My point with Perry wasn’t to boot him now, but that he should’ve been fired in the offseason if Arte didn’t trust him.

15 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Because he wants to keep controlled guys around for a 2025 team that he’s spent some money on. 

That’s the kind of stupid thinking that got them into this hole in the first place.

[BTH]

11 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Neto, O’Hoppe and Soriano haven’t.

I wasn’t saying everyone had. But you said “they,” in reference to the entire group of youngsters— and it’s not accurate to say that they all hadn’t fallen.

[BTH]

13 minutes ago, totdprods said:

We’re not a competitive team this year or next. 15-20 IP samples for relievers isn’t going to make or break us this year or next. They’ll have opportunities this year and next, and it’s also fair to say none of the AA guys were truly ready to begin this year either. I’d actually do the same thing with the pen next year too. Stock it with vets on 1-yr deals who can be shopped as the year goes on, or easily DFA’ed. The young relief arms pool is fine as depth this year and next, no need to move them along to use their innings up on a team that isn’t competitive. Ideally by end of 2025 this team is starting to coalesce and we can roll into 2026 with a very promising young core in the lineup, rotation and bullpen.

The thing is, I’d rather give those young guys (plus waiver claims/R5 picks/etc) chances because if they stick, they can be multi-year answers or can be flipped for players of value (think Effross being traded to NYY for Wesneski) and get bigger returns than you would for a rental reliever.

“15-20 IP samples for relievers isn’t going to make or break us this year or next” is exactly my point. Give them 40-60 IP samples, rather than signing washed up vets.

[totdprods]

Schanuel also had a nice 34 game/140 PA run where he hit .287/.326/.411/.737, with a totally normal .308 BAbip and 7 BB to 19 K ratio in that time. He’s just had two awful cold streaks on either side of that to depress his numbers, but again, he’s learning all of this at the big league level. For him to have more than half of his first MLB PA be that good (more than half if you count last year) while being thrust right into everyday MLB play…I see it as a positive. It was only a few years ago I remember watching Adell, Marsh, Ward and Thaiss struggle to do anything close to what Schanuel has done in their first comparable MLB reps, and with them having far more development in the minors under their belts. And pretty much all of those guys had similar prospect pedigree associated. It took Taylor Ward four years, ~2200 minor league PAs, and the age of 27 to hit 400 MLB PA. Schanuel will be there in a couple weeks at age of 22, with 100 minor league PA and an OPS of .662 (Ward was at .693 after 600 MLB PA). He deserves more grace than he’s been given on this board.

Adell had .616 and three years. Marsh .673 and two. Thaiss also four years and .672. For Schanuel to be where he is today, I don’t think it’s fair to say he’s totally cratered.

Edited June 14 by totdprods

[greginpsca]

1 hour ago, Chuck said:

From everything I know, even as today, Arte has Perry on lockdown as far as dealing any player that isn't a free agent at season end. 

If that is true, and Perry had some integrity, he would step down on his own at the end of the season.

[BTH]

1 minute ago, greginpsca said:

If that is true, and Perry had some integrity, he would step down on his own at the end of the season.

Some would say that even if he gets let go by the org, it’s actually his decision.

and by some, I mean Swordsman.

[totdprods]

34 minutes ago, BTH said:

The thing is, I’d rather give those young guys (plus waiver claims/R5 picks/etc) chances because if they stick, they can be multi-year answers or can be flipped for players of value (think Effross being traded to NYY for Wesneski) and get bigger returns than you would for a rental reliever.

“15-20 IP samples for relievers isn’t going to make or break us this year or next” is exactly my point. Give them 40-60 IP samples, rather than signing washed up vets.

And if they weren’t ready? I don’t think any of the guys currently ripping it up in the minors were ready to begin the year. Joyce was closest and he hasn’t been very impressive. 

I don’t disagree with the notion they can be great trade bait if they break out before the team is ready to compete (like Effross or what the A’s may do with Mason Miller) but I also don’t think it’s presumable that the AA crop could’ve stepped right in. And it’s made some sense to try and use May and June to squeeze any value you could out of Moore, Estévez, Strickland and Garcia to trade them in July. That’s how you wind up with guys like Ivan Armstrong, Elvis Peguero, or even Carlos Espinosa (Trey Cabbage) and Tyler Thomas (Stassi and Fletcher) who have looked like they could be a part of that future relief pool. If not for Strickland totally falling apart this week, he was pretty close to getting us at least a somewhat interesting depth prospect. Pillar still might. Turning those low-risk washed up vets into anything is a huge win when the farm is ranked 30th.

Next year they will have pretty much an entire bullpen to rebuild. Pretty safe to say we will see some of the young guns in there, whoever impresses the remainder of this summer. Round it out with a couple vets, and try to replicate this summer - deal away a couple for more prospect depth and bring up the next tier of AA arms in 2025. 

Two things that have killed the Angels pen for the last decade have been a total lack of depth (bad farm) and being shoehorned into relying on out-of-options waiver claims (Eppler years) and unoptionable expensive, multi-year vets (Minasian years). 

I like that Perry’s current farm is setting up for the Angel to have up to a good 10-15 minor league arms with plenty of option years starting this year and carrying easily into 2026-2027, given how we’re seeing similar strengths showing up now in the IE/Tri-City pen. You also don’t want to over add those guys though until they’re absolutely ready though, because relievers are often the victim of 40-man roster crunches, and that’s what happens when your lineup winds up on the IL and you have to roster guys like Tucker, Adrianza, Guillorme, Goodrum and Calhoun in a hurry to field a team. 

Edited June 14 by totdprods

[BTH]

3 minutes ago, totdprods said:

And if they weren’t ready? I don’t think any of the guys currently ripping it up in the minors were ready to begin the year.

In this hypothetical world instead of signing all those veteran relievers, I would’ve focused on collecting a bunch of guys off waivers/MiLB FAs.

So if none of the guys in the minors were ready, you take a shot on those guys.

5 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Next year they will have pretty much an entire bullpen to rebuild. Pretty safe to say we will see some of the young guns in there

Maybe. I didn’t anticipate them signing 4 veteran relievers in the offseason, but they did.

6 minutes ago, totdprods said:

I like that Perry’s current farm is setting up for the Angel to have up to a good 10-15 minor league arms with plenty of option years starting this year and carrying easily into 2026-2027,

Yes, this is good. Can’t wait for the deadline so the veteran relievers can be offloaded and young guys can get a chance.

[totdprods]

They didn’t break the bank on Strickland, Moore, Garcia and Cisnero. Those guys were also likelier to be solid vet relievers to deal over waiver claims too. I’d imagine all but Cisnero still have more trade value than waiver claims/DFAs too. No objection to how they handled the bullpen this year. 

The vets are also good to have in case the young arms do struggle. You don’t want to burn their confidence trying to make them stick. And that gets back to the 40-man crunch. You can really only cycle so many guys through without backing yourself into a corner when you face a ton of injuries that require unfortunate 40-man rostering (like this year’s infield) and wind up losing guys you don’t want to (like how we’re clinging to Suárez) or being forced into bringing up someone who is simply fresh at the right time (Wantz like five times last year, Kristofak and Daniel this year) someone who is capable and ready, or not having 40-man space to add prospects you may want to keep, such as Robinson Pina (now kicking ass in Philly’s farm). It’s just never as easy as bumping five guys and adding five guys. There’s true nuance and strategy into when and how many you add to the 40 to keep yourself flexible. Signing cheap, one-year vets helps facilitate that. 

Stephenson was the lone true mistake I think. I’d actually look into bringing him back as a SP. Might make it more worth the money if he proves he can.