The Official (2024) Los Angeles Angels Trade Deadline Thread

[Stradling]

 

[jsnpritchett]

Angels-related excerpts.  No real news, but just confirming what has been said elsewhere:

"The Los Angeles Angels expect to trade right-handed closer Carlos Estévez and setup man Luis García, both of whom are on expiring contracts.

The comparison between Estévez and Miami Marlins left-handed closer Tanner Scott, another potential free agent, is interesting. Their expected ERAs are comparable. Scott has a slightly higher strikeout rate (28.8 percent to 25.8) but also a significantly higher walk rate (14.7 percent to 4 percent). In the postseason, walks can be especially damaging.

Both closers are quite affordable, as is García. Estévez will be owed about a third of his $6.75 million salary at the deadline, Scott about a third of $5.7 million, García about a third of $4.25 million."

And:

"In addition to Estévez and García, the Angels also are open on left-hander Tyler Anderson, infielder Luis Rengifo and outfielder Taylor Ward. All three, however, are under club control beyond this season and will remain attractive alternatives this winter for teams reluctant to pay high free-agent prices. So, if the Angels do not get offers they want, they can simply wait.

Anderson is under contract for $13 million next season. Rengifo will be entering his walk year, but the free-agent class is thin on infielders and he will remain affordable after receiving a raise in arbitration from his current $4.4 million. Ward will have two years of arbitration left, at increases from his current $4.8 million."

[Angels 1961]

I think the halos will have one surprise trade nobody saw coming. 

[Stradling]

 

[ScottT]

Lol

[Stradling]

 

[Erstad Grit]

35 minutes ago, Stradling said:

 

I don't know those players, but I bet Rays won lol.

Also suck it Dodgers. Maybe teams don't want to help you anymore. 

[samwum]

Wow. The Randy Arozarena trade is really interesting. Outlined my thoughts/reaction below.

• The prospect rankings of the trade return aren't very high. Might be an indication that the Halos could face a tough trade market. Also possible prospect rankers don't know jack shit about prospects compared to what the Rays know. Hmmm...

 

• Arozarena might not be that good, and he might age poorly.
  • He has outperformed his career statcast numbers, suggesting regression.
  • He only recently developed good plate discipline.
  • His defensive ratings are atrocious.

 

• The juxtaposition of the two teams involved says a lot. The Rays front office is obviously incredibly sharp and semi-famous for unloading guys at their highest value. The Mariners front office is hilariously awful at evaluating position players, and we all know as well as anyone how much of a fuckup Jerry Dipoto is.

 

• The biggest reason why this trade is so noteworthy for us as Angels fans, is because Randy Arozarena and Luis Rengifo are incredibly similar players. I feel like the Angels might get a marginally better return for Rengifo due to his success in 2024, but I bet this trade effectively sets a baseline for the Rengifo return.
  • Both have multiple years of team control left 
  • Both have unimpressive statcast peripherals and have outperformed them
  • Both dominate LHP, but sometimes struggle against RHP
  • Both have good speed
  • Both have had ups and downs with plate discipline (although Rengifo's is likely worse)
  • Both are rate negatively in the field (although Rengifo offers versatility and bad defense)

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Angels 1961]

Rays do not to pay for his arbitration years coming. 

[ThisismineScios]

15 minutes ago, samwum said:

 

• The biggest reason why this trade is so noteworthy for us as Angels fans, is because Randy Arozarena and Luis Rengifo are incredibly similar players. I feel like the Angels might get a marginally better return for Rengifo due to his success in 2024, but I bet this trade effectively sets a baseline for the Rengifo return.

I think Rengifo has a deal more value than Arozarena. He can play 3 INF positions, switch hits, has speed, and his stats are much better. He's also 2 years younger. 

Ward and Arozarena (as I noted in a post) are almost eerily similar in many categories. In fact, I think Ward could be viewed as a shade better because of his metrics and defense. 

[Angels 1961]

18 minutes ago, Erstad Grit said:

I don't know those players, but I bet Rays won lol.

Also suck it Dodgers. Maybe teams don't want to help you anymore. 

Dodgers do not need much help and will get players before deadline.

[aznhockeyguy]

21 minutes ago, samwum said:

Wow. The Randy Arozarena trade is really interesting. Outlined my thoughts/reaction below.

• The prospect rankings of the trade return aren't very high. Might be an indication that the Halos could face a tough trade market. Also possible prospect rankers don't know jack shit about prospects compared to what the Rays know. Hmmm...

 

• Arozarena might not be that good, and he might age poorly.
  • He has outperformed his career statcast numbers, suggesting regression.
  • He only recently developed good plate discipline.
  • His defensive ratings are atrocious.

 

• The juxtaposition of the two teams involved says a lot. The Rays front office is obviously incredibly sharp and semi-famous for unloading guys at their highest value. The Mariners front office is hilariously awful at evaluating position players, and we all know as well as anyone how much of a fuckup Jerry Dipoto is.

 

• The biggest reason why this trade is so noteworthy for us as Angels fans, is because Randy Arozarena and Luis Rengifo are incredibly similar players. I feel like the Angels might get a marginally better return for Rengifo due to his success in 2024, but I bet this trade effectively sets a baseline for the Rengifo return.
  • Both have multiple years of team control left 
  • Both have unimpressive statcast peripherals and have outperformed them
  • Both dominate LHP, but sometimes struggle against RHP
  • Both have good speed
  • Both have had ups and downs with plate discipline (although Rengifo's is likely worse)
  • Both are rate negatively in the field (although Rengifo offers versatility and bad defense)

 

 

 

 

 

 

Great analysis!  I agree with you nearly all your points, however Rengifo's defense while bad isn't terrible as Arozarena's.  Rengifo is more valuable due to his versatility around the INF.  Try finding a middle infielder with a 110 OPS+ with a average glove versus a 110 OPS+ LFer with a bad glove. His batting stats as an infielder versus an outfielder should make Rengifo more valuable.  

[samwum]

1 hour ago, jsnpritchett said:

Angels-related excerpts.  No real news, but just confirming what has been said elsewhere:

"The Los Angeles Angels expect to trade right-handed closer Carlos Estévez and setup man Luis García, both of whom are on expiring contracts.

The comparison between Estévez and Miami Marlins left-handed closer Tanner Scott, another potential free agent, is interesting. Their expected ERAs are comparable. Scott has a slightly higher strikeout rate (28.8 percent to 25.8) but also a significantly higher walk rate (14.7 percent to 4 percent). In the postseason, walks can be especially damaging.

Both closers are quite affordable, as is García. Estévez will be owed about a third of his $6.75 million salary at the deadline, Scott about a third of $5.7 million, García about a third of $4.25 million."

And:

"In addition to Estévez and García, the Angels also are open on left-hander Tyler Anderson, infielder Luis Rengifo and outfielder Taylor Ward. All three, however, are under club control beyond this season and will remain attractive alternatives this winter for teams reluctant to pay high free-agent prices. So, if the Angels do not get offers they want, they can simply wait.

Anderson is under contract for $13 million next season. Rengifo will be entering his walk year, but the free-agent class is thin on infielders and he will remain affordable after receiving a raise in arbitration from his current $4.4 million. Ward will have two years of arbitration left, at increases from his current $4.8 million."

I don't mean to discredit Estevez but Scott has a lot more value.

• Scott has a better "downside scenario". If Scott starts stinking it up, he can still play lefty specialist. If Estevez starts stinking it up, he's just an overpaid run of the mill middle reliever.
• Scott has better strikeouts. 11.9 career K/9 is really good. Estevez' career 9.53 is fine, but on the low end for big time relievers.
• Scott's peripherals have been significantly better. Scott's 2.86 xFIP and 2.66 SIERA in the 2023 full season were flat out dominant. Estevez's career best peripherals are in 2024 where he's rocking a 3.89 xFIP and 3.35 SIERA. Guys outperform/underperform these peripherals all the time, but Scott is just better.

Even still, I'm not worried about Estevez' trade return one bit. He's the best RH closer on block. If Scott goes, hopefully it's for a lot because then Estevez goes next.

 

[samwum]

15 minutes ago, aznhockeyguy said:

Great analysis!  I agree with you nearly all your points, however Rengifo's defense while bad isn't terrible as Arozarena's.  Rengifo is more valuable due to his versatility around the INF.  Try finding a middle infielder with a 110 OPS+ with a average glove versus a 110 OPS+ LFer with a bad glove. His batting stats as an infielder versus an outfielder should make Rengifo more valuable.  

Thanks!

I actually 100% agree with you on the defense. Might've articulated poorly.

Bad defense at 2B/3B and break glass in case of emergency RF/LF/SS definitely better than atrocious LF defense.

[Angels 1961]

Wonder if Angels would have any interest in Cedric Mullins or Ryan Mountcastle. Trading Anderson or Carlos E they would want prospects. Angels will need a CF and Mountcastle can play LF. Have Trout DH keep Rengifo lineup for 2025 might look better. I know Mullins having down year maybe change of team would help. 

[samwum]

2 hours ago, ThisismineScios said:

I think Rengifo has a deal more value than Arozarena. He can play 3 INF positions, switch hits, has speed, and his stats are much better. He's also 2 years younger. 

Ward and Arozarena (as I noted in a post) are almost eerily similar in many categories. In fact, I think Ward could be viewed as a shade better because of his metrics and defense. 

Hey man. I appreciate your opinion. I love Gifo. 

All of these topics you mentioned could or likely do arguably sway for Arozarena. 

• Gifo plays shitty defense at premium defensive positions. 2B, 3B, SS defense matters. Having a shitty defensive LF is pretty standard. Playoff teams know that you lose playoff games when a guy boots a grounder or can't turn a quick double play.
• Rengifo is a switch hitter but he's probably more a platoon threat than Arozarena. They both smash left handed pitching equally well. Arozarena has a better track record against righties.
• Speed is basically the same. Arozarena has been a 20-30 SB guy for a long time. Rengifo is pacing for like 30-35 after not doing fuck all on the bases previous. Neither's Rickey Henderson
• Stats go for Gifo the last 70 games yeah, and then they go for Arozarena their entire careers prior. Peripherals are pretty much even. You want the guy who has overachieved so far in 2024, or underachieved so far in 2024? Ultimate brain teaser for Minasian

 

Just going to re-post so people don't get caught up in this dumbassery

• Both have multiple years of team control left 
• Both have unimpressive statcast peripherals, although currently Gifo is overperforming, and Arozarena is underperforming
• Both dominate LHP, but sometimes struggle against RHP
• Both have good, not great, speed
• Both have had ups and downs with plate discipline (although Rengifo's is likely worse)
• Both are rate negatively in the field (although Rengifo offers versatility)
• Both usually pace for 2-3.5 WAR but don't have superstar potential 

 

 

[DMVol]

4 hours ago, Angels 1961 said:

Wonder if Angels would have any interest in Cedric Mullins or Ryan Mountcastle…

Not if we are truly rebuilding, retooling or whatever you want to call it.

[T.G.]

2 hours ago, DMVol said:

Not if we are truly rebuilding, retooling or whatever you want to call it.

We're tinkering. 

Or is it tinkling?

[failos]

6 minutes ago, T.G. said:

We're tinkering. 

Or is it tinkling?

My Moises Alou senses are tingling

Edited July 26 by failos

[T.G.]

16 minutes ago, failos said:

My Moises Alou senses are tingling

Nice pull. 

Oh wait...

[failos]

30 minutes ago, T.G. said:

Nice pull. 

Oh wait...

Gross

[Vlad27Trout27]

That is a pretty good trade for the Rays. According to FanGraphs' updated midseason list, Hopkins is their #7 prospect and Smith is ranked #21. Considering Arozarena is having a down year, they did really well, even compared to the Puk trade, which involved similarly ranked prospects.

This trade structure also provides a template for a potential Tyler Anderson trade. Based on these examples, Anderson's value could be a 45 FV and a 40 FV prospect, both younger with significant upside.

For Ward, a trade might resemble the deal for Arozarena. The decision is whether to risk holding onto him in hopes of a rebound year or to trade him now for a similar package, acknowledging the possibility he might not bounce back.

Estevez could likely fetch a 40 FV prospect from Single-A or High-A with good upside and numbers.

Rengifo might be worth a substantial return, potentially a 45 FV prospect plus two 40 FV prospects. With the infield market being thin, teams will be looking to add talent.

Pillar gets us an 18/19 year kids

If done right, Both Anderson and Estevez are gone, we'll hold on to the Ward and Rengifo and add 1 45 FV prospect and 2 40 FV prospects into the system.   

In this case; here's how the FV would stand out'

45--> low end starter Basically a 1.5 to 2 War players) 

40--> Platoon/Bench player or young prospects that are just getting started. In this case, we'll trade for the later half, and hope at-least one breaks out. 

 

[m0nkey]

The rare MLB player for MLB player in-season trade, and from 2 contenders

 

[Angels 1961]

1 minute ago, m0nkey said:

The rare MLB player for MLB player in-season trade, and from 2 contenders

 

Ward not going to Philly now

[Tank]

29 minutes ago, m0nkey said:

The rare MLB player for MLB player in-season trade, and from 2 contenders

 

this opens the door for the phillies to go after estevez.