OC Register: Swanson: Time for Angels and their fans to lean into the long game

[Taylor]

1 minute ago, Stradling said:

I think we can safely say they haven’t.  I have no idea if that will be the case moving forward.  

What leads you to believe they might change course?

[Stradling]

3 hours ago, Junkballer said:

Knowing who Arte is, its more likely that this year's limited spending is saving for next offseason than allowing Minasian to truly rebuild.  He's more likely to try to entice Gerrit Cole to opt out and give the Angels a big splash than to take his hands off the GM and let the attendance decline linger.  I'll believe the sea-change in Arte's approach when I see it.

Cole’s opt out only exists if the Yankees don’t offer him another year at the same rate as the annual average of his contract.  That is how the contract is written.  It isn’t a straight opt out.  

[Stradling]

3 minutes ago, Taylor said:

What leads you to believe they might change course?

The performance of the team.  The fact he let Ohtani walk without offering him a contract.  The fact he didn’t sign any free agents that cost a draft pick.  The fact he said the plan was to lower payroll (which we all expected based on the previous year being an all time high).  Even he can see this team isn’t a free agent or two away.  

[T.G.]

4 hours ago, Jay said:

"Long game" implies that there is some sort of plan or strategy. I'm not really seeing it.

When Theo Epstein joined the Cubs, he told the fans to be patient and that they we're going to rebuild.  I can respect that kind of transparency.  We're definitely not seeing that here.

[Docwaukee]

I'm gonna mention something that's probably completely wrong and for the most part, way out of left field, but here it goes.  

Arte didn't sell the team because he'll get more value now that Ohtani is gone.   I know that sounds nuts, but hear me out.  

A prospective owner probably had a decent chunk of value ie attendance tied to Shohei.  

Arte's crew has a decade long streak of futility yet they're middle of the pack in attendance this year.   Ohtani is gone, Trout is hurt again, and Rendon has never really brought much to the table.  

He is proving that the floor value of this team is absurd and not tied to a superstar.  Sort of the opposite of his usual approach.  

[tdawg87]

1 hour ago, Docwaukee said:

I'm gonna mention something that's probably completely wrong and for the most part, way out of left field, but here it goes.  

Arte didn't sell the team because he'll get more value now that Ohtani is gone.   I know that sounds nuts, but hear me out.  

A prospective owner probably had a decent chunk of value ie attendance tied to Shohei.  

Arte's crew has a decade long streak of futility yet they're middle of the pack in attendance this year.   Ohtani is gone, Trout is hurt again, and Rendon has never really brought much to the table.  

He is proving that the floor value of this team is absurd and not tied to a superstar.  Sort of the opposite of his usual approach.  

Can we simply wish this into existence?

[Jay]

5 hours ago, Docwaukee said:

I'm gonna mention something that's probably completely wrong and for the most part, way out of left field, but here it goes.  

Arte didn't sell the team because he'll get more value now that Ohtani is gone.   I know that sounds nuts, but hear me out.  

A prospective owner probably had a decent chunk of value ie attendance tied to Shohei.  

Arte's crew has a decade long streak of futility yet they're middle of the pack in attendance this year.   Ohtani is gone, Trout is hurt again, and Rendon has never really brought much to the table.  

He is proving that the floor value of this team is absurd and not tied to a superstar.  Sort of the opposite of his usual approach.  

[BTH]

11 hours ago, Docwaukee said:

I'm gonna mention something that's probably completely wrong and for the most part, way out of left field, but here it goes.  

Arte didn't sell the team because he'll get more value now that Ohtani is gone.   I know that sounds nuts, but hear me out.  

A prospective owner probably had a decent chunk of value ie attendance tied to Shohei.  

Arte's crew has a decade long streak of futility yet they're middle of the pack in attendance this year.   Ohtani is gone, Trout is hurt again, and Rendon has never really brought much to the table.  

He is proving that the floor value of this team is absurd and not tied to a superstar.  Sort of the opposite of his usual approach.  

Is proving the high floor really gonna help him sell the team for more money than he would’ve gotten a year or two earlier?

If I’m buying the Angels, it’s because I want to tap into the untapped potential. I’m focused on the upside, not the downside.

[Blarg]

I don't think the team value is tied to players in the least. Most players have a 5 to 10 year career value regardless of how long they play. A new owner isn't buying with a 5-10 year player(s) driving their P&L. They are buying location & television/streaming revenue. Everything else they will change or fix knowing this team isn't a turnkey operation. 

[Angel Oracle]

23 hours ago, Stradling said:

Cole’s opt out only exists if the Yankees don’t offer him another year at the same rate as the annual average of his contract.  That is how the contract is written.  It isn’t a straight opt out.  

Burnes instead, if he is interested.

[jsnpritchett]

On 5/16/2024 at 11:54 PM, Tank said:

i don't think they're going to care too much about the long game until the avg. game attendance is hovering around 10-12k per night. 

 

I was just looking at the attendance numbers.  The Angels now have the 2nd-largest drop in average attendance from last year to this year.  They're averaging 27,933/game so far, down 4,320 from 2023.  If they keep up that pace for the entire season, they'd hit 2.26M, which would be their lowest total since 2001 (in a non-Covid-impact year).  If anything, I'd expect attendance to trend down, not up, for the rest of the year, so it's possible they could end up under 2M for the year.

[PattyD22]

4 hours ago, jsnpritchett said:

I was just looking at the attendance numbers.  The Angels now have the 2nd-largest drop in average attendance from last year to this year.  They're averaging 27,933/game so far, down 4,320 from 2023.  If they keep up that pace for the entire season, they'd hit 2.26M, which would be their lowest total since 2001 (in a non-Covid-impact year).  If anything, I'd expect attendance to trend down, not up, for the rest of the year, so it's possible they could end up under 2M for the year.

I have a friend who works at the stadium.  She has worked there for 6 years, so she has a little bit of seniority.  She told my wife and I that because attendance is already down and trending even further, Arte has already started laying workers off.  The initial lay off notices went out last week.

Unsure how many total layoffs, but it’s happening.

[Slegnaac]

Team value might not be tied to a specific player (Ohtani), but I bet the sales at the team store were.

Last season every game I went to there was a huge line waiting to get into the first floor team store.  I suspect that most people in line were not Southern California residents. 

This season, I went to the Star Wars Rally Monkey night, and there wasn't a line when I went by the store.

Edited May 20 by Slegnaac

[Stradling]

1 hour ago, PattyD22 said:

I have a friend who works at the stadium.  She has worked there for 6 years, so she has a little bit of seniority.  She told my wife and I that because attendance is already down and trending even further, Arte has already started laying workers off.  The initial lay off notices went out last week.

Unsure how many total layoffs, but it’s happening.

This isn’t me defending Arte, but it will be portrayed that way.  Of course they are laying people off, that is what happens in the real world when you lose customers.  

[BTH]

53 minutes ago, Slegnaac said:

Team value might not be tied to a specific player (Ohtani), but I bet the sales at the team store were.

Last season every game I went to there was a huge line waiting to get into the first floor team store.  I suspect that most people in line were not Southern California residents. 

This season, I went to the Star Wars Rally Monkey night, and there wasn't a line when I went by the store.

Ironic because I was at multiple games last season, unable to get into the team store for that reason.

And now it sounds like I could get into the team store easily, but I have no desire to go to games at Angel Stadium now.

[BTH]

5 hours ago, jsnpritchett said:

I was just looking at the attendance numbers.  The Angels now have the 2nd-largest drop in average attendance from last year to this year.  They're averaging 27,933/game so far, down 4,320 from 2023.  If they keep up that pace for the entire season, they'd hit 2.26M, which would be their lowest total since 2001 (in a non-Covid-impact year).  If anything, I'd expect attendance to trend down, not up, for the rest of the year, so it's possible they could end up under 2M for the year.

looking at the schedule, the only series that will likely draw a decent amount the rest of the season are:

- Country weekend (maybe)

- NYY comes to town.

- SD comes to town (maybe, depending on how well the Padres are doing at that point)

- Throwback weekend

- LAD comes to town.

All those games vs. Oakland and even Houston/Texas/Seattle are gonna be empty.

[Swordsman78]

5 hours ago, jsnpritchett said:

I was just looking at the attendance numbers.  The Angels now have the 2nd-largest drop in average attendance from last year to this year.  They're averaging 27,933/game so far, down 4,320 from 2023.  If they keep up that pace for the entire season, they'd hit 2.26M, which would be their lowest total since 2001 (in a non-Covid-impact year).  If anything, I'd expect attendance to trend down, not up, for the rest of the year, so it's possible they could end up under 2M for the year.

@BTH projected 2.2 million so his projection may be the most educated.   Strad will be way off at 2.5 million.   

 

[Stradling]

9 minutes ago, Swordsman78 said:

@BTH projected 2.2 million so his projection may be the most educated.   Strad will be way off at 2.5 million.   

 

Yep, I’ll be wrong by about 3,000 a game. 

[PattyD22]

43 minutes ago, Stradling said:

This isn’t me defending Arte, but it will be portrayed that way.  Of course they are laying people off, that is what happens in the real world when you lose customers.  

This doesn’t come off to me as you defending Arte.  Business is business.  Only a naive person wouldn’t think that.  I was just relaying to Jason that his post is correct, and it’s having an effect on “Arte’s business model.”

Yacht fuel doesn’t grow on trees.

[Swordsman78]

16 minutes ago, Stradling said:

Yep, I’ll be wrong by about 3,000 a game. 

Yup  over 10% miss which is compelling especially when multiplied by 80.

Almost as bad in relative terms as California budget deficit.  

 

[Stradling]

3 minutes ago, Swordsman78 said:

Yup  over 10% miss which is compelling especially when multiplied by 80.

Almost as bad in relative terms as California budget deficit.  

 

I have a history of making mistakes. I also have a history of admitting my mistakes. That’s where you and I differ. 

[Jeff Fletcher]

On 5/16/2024 at 9:32 PM, BTH said:

It's hard as a fan to lean into the long game if the team isn't actually acknowledging that they're leaning into the long game.

Serious question:

In all other areas, people don’t seem to care what the team says. They only care what it does. So why, on this particular issue, do people seem to want to hear the Angels says the words “we’re rebuilding,” as opposed to just understanding from their actions that that is what they’re doing?

(And don’t give me examples from 2023. It’s pretty clear they changed direction once Ohtani left.)

[Kendo36]

7 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

Serious question:

In all other areas, people don’t seem to care what the team says. They only care what it does. So why, on this particular issue, do people seem to want to hear the Angels says the words “we’re rebuilding,” as opposed to just understanding from their actions that that is what they’re doing?

(And don’t give me examples from 2023. It’s pretty clear they changed direction once Ohtani left.)

Exactly. Sam Blum needs his head examined. It's obvious they are rebuilding. Painfully obvious. But why would Ron Washington (who wants his team to believe they can win) say hey "we expect to suck this year". It's so dumb and counterintuitive. 

[T.G.]

12 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

Serious question:

In all other areas, people don’t seem to care what the team says. They only care what it does. So why, on this particular issue, do people seem to want to hear the Angels says the words “we’re rebuilding,” as opposed to just understanding from their actions that that is what they’re doing?

(And don’t give me examples from 2023. It’s pretty clear they changed direction once Ohtani left.)

I think it's because what they say doesn't match what they appear to be doing. Ron Washington saying things like "we're going to run down the AL West" doesn't match what we see in the construction of the roster.  "We're going to be about it."  Be about what?

[Jeff Fletcher]

17 minutes ago, T.G. said:

I think it's because what they say doesn't match what they appear to be doing. Ron Washington saying things like "we're going to run down the AL West" doesn't match what we see in the construction of the roster.  "We're going to be about it."  Be about what?

Question: why does it matter if they say one thing and do another?

@T.G. Because they’re saying one thing and doing another. 
 

(Also, I could make a case that the quotes you’re referring to don’t really say what you think they say. None of that says “we’re going to win the division in 2024.” It’s all general rah rah stuff.)