The Official 2024 Major League Baseball Thread

[Angelsjunky]

[Inside Pitch]

1 hour ago, m0nkey said:

I'd agree to a certain extent on ERA being not a good predictor of future results.  But given that WAR is telling us what has happened and not what is going to happen, I don't see how someone (WAR) can take a look at Sandoval's 16 starts/results and say they have been more value than Anderson's 17.

Does ERA tell you if a RP came in and emptied the bases or if a defender reached over the wall and saved a grand slam, does it account for seeing eye single (Babip)?  WAR tries to normalize those things and focuses on what it believes a pitcher has some agency over. FWIW, I fully believe guys can and do induce weak contact or ground balls so, like I said, I'm not the biggest fan of pitcher WAR either...  But ERA sucks a lot more because it tells you the what, and none of the why.  The why is more often than not more important when trying to predict future results or try to appraise the value of a performance. ERA did more to push me towards advanced metrics than any other stat.  I was constantly arguing guys sucked and being told I was a moron because OMG -- look at his ERA!  "dont you watch games"..  It was the watching that made me believe they sucked.

IMO, WAR's greatest use is to identify undervalued arms, but there are stats that do a better job of pointing out the guys that are good at creating that value.   

[sctorero9]

WAR measures value (not "wins," despite the name).  So while it measures what happened, the formula has to attribute value to particular events.  Fangraphs WAR deliberately strips out some context based on the supposition that that context is deceptive or creates undue "noise" in the data.  All of which is to say, the events that this particular formula values, don't perfectly correlate to what fans may value (i.e., "wins").

That's why Sandy has more fWAR than Anderson.  He has done more of the things the formula values (and less of the things the formula doesn't "like).  It doesn't necessarily mean he was better.

[Angels 1961]

Halos will not get much for Anderson with kat 15per cent and walk rate at 10. 

[Angelsjunky]

1 minute ago, Angels 1961 said:

Halos will not get much for Anderson with kat 15per cent and walk rate at 10. 

I kind of see him as similar to Taylor Ward: He's an above average regular, and valuable to a team needing a reliable 4th starter who will keep you in most games (or fill-in outfielder, like the Braves). His relatively affordable extra year, at the least, doesn't decrease his trade value and might enhance it slightly.

Both have value on the trade market - just not marquee, Jackson Holliday value. Maybe a 45+ FV prospect--or 50, if we're really lucky, or pair of 40/45s--which in the Angels system would be top 5.

To put it another way, trading Anderson (45+), Ward (45, 40+), Estevez (45+), and maybe Pillar, Calhoun, and a couple other relievers for a handful of 40s, greatly replenishes the prospect pool. Not to great, but all of a sudden you have two new top 5 guys, a couple more top 10 guys, and a handful of new top 30 guys. 

I'm more hesitant to trade Rengifo, but he might be worth a pretty nice 50 FV prospect. Even in today's era, leading the league in BA--plus defensive versatility (despite mediocre to poor defense)--has a lot of value to contending teams. He'd be a terrific super UT pick-up for almost any contender.

 

[jsnpritchett]

 

 

[m0nkey]

This guy makes Mike Trout look like Lou Gehrig

 

[arch stanton]

Twins drafted Buxton 2nd overall and he's managed one season above 100 games played in 10 seasons and now Clayton can't stay in the lineup. That's gotta hurt

[m0nkey]

21 minutes ago, arch stanton said:

Twins drafted Buxton 2nd overall and he's managed one season above 100 games played in 10 seasons and now Clayton can't stay in the lineup. That's gotta hurt

Moneyball actor Royce Clayton?

[arch stanton]

10 hours ago, m0nkey said:

Moneyball actor Royce Clayton?

Sorry. Lewis

[Taylor]

2 hours ago, arch stanton said:

Sorry. Lewis

Easy mistake.

[jsnpritchett]

 

 

[jsnpritchett]

Raul Mondesi going to prison:

https://dodgersnation.com/former-dodgers-all-star-sentenced-to-more-than-6-years-in-prison-report/2024/07/04/

 

[Angelsjunky]

Random fun fact: Once Albert Pujols is elected to the Hall of Fame, his 2017 season will be the single worst qualifying season by a Hall of Famer, according to fWAR - and by a good margin:

-1.8 Pujols, 2017

-1.0 Maranville 1933

-0.9 Clemente 1955

-0.9 Ashburn 1959

-0.8 Biggio 2007

-0.8 Molitor 1998

-0.8 Aparicio 1971

Interestingly enough, there are currently only 23 qualifying seasons by Hall of Famers that are negative fWAR. Ken Griffey Jr owns two of them (2007-08). Vlad Sr also has one (2011 with the Orioles).

Worst wRC+ by a Hall of Famer: Ozzie Smith in 1979 with 47. Smith is the single player whose Hall of Fame status is weighted towards defense (Brooks Robinson comes to mind, as well, but was significantly better hitter; I also think of Pudge).

Smith: 67.6 WAR, wRC+ 90, 375.3 Def Runs, -69.4 Off.

Robinson: 80.2 WAR, 104 wRC+, 359.8 Def, 56.1 Off.

Smith and Robinson are 1st and 3rd all-time Def (with Yadier Molina 2nd). 

Top 10 Career Def

1. Smith 375.3
2. Molina 373.6
3. B Robinson 359.8
4. Belanger 345.6
5. Pudge 311.7
6. Ripken 310.1
7. Aparicio 302.7
8. R Martin 301.5
9. Tinker 288.7
10. A Jones 278.8

Edited July 5 by Angelsjunky

[m0nkey]

Is Paul Skenes already the best pitcher in the NL?

 

[jsnpritchett]

 

 

[jsnpritchett]

Former #2 overall pick and top 10 prospect in multiple years.  Total bust at the major league level.

 

[Blarg]

Minasian

[Blarg]

Moniak drafted #1

Senzel drafted #2

Thaiss drafted 16th

Advantage: Angels

[Angels 1961]

1 hour ago, jsnpritchett said:

Former #2 overall pick and top 10 prospect in multiple years.  Total bust at the major league level.

 

His middle name is Brandon

[Taylor]

On 7/6/2024 at 1:52 PM, Angels 1961 said:

His middle name is Brandon

Let’s go!

[m0nkey]

On 7/6/2024 at 12:49 PM, Blarg said:

Moniak drafted #1

Senzel drafted #2

Thaiss drafted 16th

Advantage: Angels

Thank you Billy!

[m0nkey]

On 7/5/2024 at 5:34 PM, m0nkey said:

Is Paul Skenes already the best pitcher in the NL?

 

 

[Taylor]

3 hours ago, m0nkey said:

 

F Skenes, we got Shanuel

[T.G.]

11 hours ago, Taylor said:

F Skenes, we got Shanuel

Who?