The Official 2024 Minor League Stats, Scouting, Updates, and Reports Thread

[jsnpritchett]

8 hours ago, jsnpritchett said:

Placencia is now 6th in the Cal League in OPS.  Only one person ahead of him is younger than he is, and 3 of the 5 ahead of him have only played part of the season in the Cal League (so they have far fewer plate appearances).  He's also tied for the lead in HR and 2nd in the league in walks.

DeJesus is 16th in the league in OPS, despite being one of the youngest players.

Placencia with another HR in his first AB tonight. Dude is on fire. 

[Chuck]

 

[Chuck]

1 hour ago, jsnpritchett said:

Placencia with another HR in his first AB tonight. Dude is on fire. 

 

[totdprods]

At what point does the farm perform enough this year that it buys Perry another season?

Personally I don’t really like the idea of bringing in another GM while we have a coaching staff on the books for one more year. Having this overlap from GM/manager over and over can’t be helping build cohesiveness, so as much as I’m not thrilled by Perry’s work, I’m maybe willing to give him one more year so he and Ron have contracts expire at the same time. 

I’m pretty pleased with a few of our prospects this year (and some youngsters on the big league team) but the disparity across the farm is concerning still, IMO.

[BTH]

1 hour ago, totdprods said:

At what point does the farm perform enough this year that it buys Perry another season?

I don’t know, but they are really far from it.

Which legit prospects are really performing well in the farm?

Going off MLB Pipeline’s T30:

Good: Dana, Joyce, Kent, Guzman, Morrobel, Placencia, Minacci, Flores, Daniel, Fontenelle

Meh: Laverde, Urena, Marcheco, Hurtado, Scull

Bad: Rada, Paris, Kochanowicz, Sanchez, Mederos, Ruiz, Rios, Ortiz, Adams, Wimmer, Texido

TBD: Lugo, Costieu, Acosta, Caceres

So only like a third of the T30.

[Vlad27Trout27]

Placenia should be making the jump to High-A soon. His plate discipline is elite, evidenced by his career walk rate of over 16%, and this year he's sitting at an impressive 20%. Besides his 14 games in Double-A, he's consistently demonstrated his ability to get on base. Currently, he's on a hot streak and showing solid power potential, suggesting there could be 20 home run potential in his bat. With his power now fully developing, we might see a much higher upside in his performance.

Ideally I would give him 30 to 40 games in A+ and if he puts up similar number, have him at AA. 

 

[Angel Oracle]

35 minutes ago, Vlad27Trout27 said:

Placenia should be making the jump to High-A soon. His plate discipline is elite, evidenced by his career walk rate of over 16%, and this year he's sitting at an impressive 20%. Besides his 14 games in Double-A, he's consistently demonstrated his ability to get on base. Currently, he's on a hot streak and showing solid power potential, suggesting there could be 20 home run potential in his bat. With his power now fully developing, we might see a much higher upside in his performance.

Ideally I would give him 30 to 40 games in A+ and if he puts up similar number, have him at AA. 

 

Or somewhat similar numbers in A+ ball, stadium is where power hitting goes to parish.   Maybe just focus on the OBP number?

[jsnpritchett]

Rada is 2 for 2 so far tonight--with a HR! 

[jsnpritchett]

 

[ScottM]

Caden Dana tonight: 8 IP 5 H 2 ER 0 BB 10 K

Killer.

[jsnpritchett]

Just now, ScottM said:

Caden Dana tonight: 8 IP 5 H 2 ER 0 BB 10 K

Killer.

Send him out for the complete game!

[ScottM]

2 hours ago, jsnpritchett said:

Send him out for the complete game!

101 pitches, let’s not ruin his elbow before he even makes it to the big leagues

Is he a top 100 prospect now? 

[jsnpritchett]

1 minute ago, ScottM said:

101 pitches, let’s not ruin his elbow before he even makes his to the big leagues

Is he a top 100 prospect now? 

Oh, I know they wouldn't do it.  I was just joking.  Nice to see him have a dominant game! 

[tdawg87]

37 minutes ago, ScottM said:

Caden Dana tonight: 8 IP 5 H 2 ER 0 BB 10 K

Killer.

[Ochocinco!]

5 hours ago, ScottM said:

Caden Dana tonight: 8 IP 5 H 2 ER 0 BB 10 K

Killer.

[eaterfan]

On 6/6/2024 at 9:08 PM, totdprods said:

At what point does the farm perform enough this year that it buys Perry another season?

Personally I don’t really like the idea of bringing in another GM while we have a coaching staff on the books for one more year. Having this overlap from GM/manager over and over can’t be helping build cohesiveness, so as much as I’m not thrilled by Perry’s work, I’m maybe willing to give him one more year so he and Ron have contracts expire at the same time. 

I’m pretty pleased with a few of our prospects this year (and some youngsters on the big league team) but the disparity across the farm is concerning still, IMO.

This farm system is pretty garbage... IMO it's all bad as it's ever been.

1 guy who has a chance at being an all-star in Dana, maybe 2 who could be MLB average starters in Guzman and Rada. Maybe Joyce becomes a dominant reliever, but I think it's less than probable. Even if all 4 guys hit their 80th percentile outcome this system is bottom third in the league.

[totdprods]

5 hours ago, eaterfan said:

This farm system is pretty garbage... IMO it's all bad as it's ever been.

1 guy who has a chance at being an all-star in Dana, maybe 2 who could be MLB average starters in Guzman and Rada. Maybe Joyce becomes a dominant reliever, but I think it's less than probable. Even if all 4 guys hit their 80th percentile outcome this system is bottom third in the league.

Oh, the farm still sucks. Outside of maybe a year or two in the Dipoto years, it's easily the worst I've seen too. Not arguing against that at all. 

But I think it's started showing some signs of life the last month or so, and I'm talking outside of Top 30 guys too. One of my grips about Perry's farm building so far is just how disparate it was. The top picks, the Neto, Schanuel, even Bachman and Joyce guys, they sped along, played well, made it to the bigs lightning quick. But everything else was pretty bad. Not just bad, but worse than usual. Didn't even rank as org depth or productive for their league/competition. But that's starting to look different the last month or so. AA is above .500. The IE offense has been red-hot. The draftees still are underwhelming as a whole, but the international talent is starting to perk up and play better than I remember it ever having done during the Dipoto and Eppler admins.

I don't anticipate it being a good farm for awhile still. It's going to be heavily contingent on how well Perry handles this draft and this deadline. If he can pull off what appears to be a good draft and a good sell (we obviously won't know by end of year if they really were great) and the farm keeps seeing steps forward...does it keep him one extra year?

[totdprods]

On 6/7/2024 at 12:47 AM, BTH said:

I don’t know, but they are really far from it.

Which legit prospects are really performing well in the farm?

Going off MLB Pipeline’s T30:

Good: Dana, Joyce, Kent, Guzman, Morrobel, Placencia, Minacci, Flores, Daniel, Fontenelle

Meh: Laverde, Urena, Marcheco, Hurtado, Scull

Bad: Rada, Paris, Kochanowicz, Sanchez, Mederos, Ruiz, Rios, Ortiz, Adams, Wimmer, Texido

TBD: Lugo, Costieu, Acosta, Caceres

So only like a third of the T30.

Gotta look beyond the Top 30. That was part of my gripe with Perry...I felt he drafted well with initial picks, but everything else was bad. Obviously those guys are rarely prospects as is, but usually some perform well enough to be average in their own minor league teams, or to have a sleeper prospect or two emerge...none of that has really happened in Perry's years. And yes, jury is still kind of out on how well Schanuel, Neto, Silseth, Bachman and Joyce do, even with their rapid ascent. 

I think 1/3 of a Top 30 performing well isn't too bad or unusual of a distribution either. And you can argue that 'meh' and 'tbd' could tip that. I also don't know that Rada truly deserves a 'bad'. The overall line isn't great, but he's had some consistent strong play in a league way, way above his skill-set. Rada just had an awful cold snap, but that was preceded by a 30-game stretch where he hit .300 in 133 PA as an 18-yr old against AA prospects, typically the best in the minors. You can't look at a player like that, at that age, and just default to their overall line as judgement on if they're good or bad. Yeah, it's cherry-picking to a degree, but it's an incomplete picture of a player that is truly incomplete at this point in their career. That doesn't mean he's amazing. It doesn't mean he's terrible either. He likely made an adjustment - either mechanical or mental - and thrived for a month. Then either the league made an adjustment or his mechanics went screwy, he battled, and has had a recent series here vs. Chattanooga where he looks more like he did in that 'hot' month - 4 for 13 (.308), two steals only 2 Ks, his first AA HR.

When I was doing the bi-weekly minor league updates here, I had to constantly point out that you could not really look at overall stats for a player to judge how they were doing. Especially lower levels. These are prospects literally in development, changing things, adjusting, focusing on certain aspects. Looking at the season in chunks can offer glimpses at growth. Back to the beyond the Top 30

Randy De Jesus has an .855 OPS in a league two years older than him, and is emerging as a legit corner-outfield power prospect. 
Kevyn Castillo, also 19 in A Ball, is hitting .292 on the season and .336 since May 1st, with an OPS of .866.
Capri Ortiz, also 19, hit .143 in April, but .284 since May 1st. 
Scull was one of highest profile international signees, and he had a good showing last year (.300/.377/.453/.830) that no one seemed to really talk about. His first 25 G this year, .247/.302/.330/.632, but last 25? .307/.342/.447/.795. Also on the younger side of the league average. He might be turning into a legit Top 30 guy for us by end of year.
I wrote off Joe Redfield a ways back, and at 22 he's older than others in Cal League, but after a .211/.307/.342/.649 slash in his first 22 G/89 PA, he's turned around with a .311/.390/.437/.827 in 25 G/122 PA since. Maybe it's a hot streak, but maybe it's also a 4th rounder finally putting things together.
I don't know what a Ben Gobbel is but he had a solid slash last year (.267/.367/.410/.776) and kicked ass by Tri-City offense standards this year (.292/.374/.469/.843) and is now in AA. Rio Foster has been torching it in Arizona, Laverde and Morrobel hitting well too, both still teenagers.

We don't know yet where these players are going, or if this is just hot streaks or things averaging out. That's what I meant by the last post though...if the farm as a whole starts seeing more production from guys like De Jesus, Castillo, Redfield, Ortiz, Gobbel. Pitching hasn't been as hot the last month, but there are still some signs of development. Since May 1st, Cam Minacci has 3 BB to 16 K in 11.1 IP with an ERA of 0.79. Carlos Espinosa (from the Cabbage trade) has struck out a ridiculous 22 hitters in 11.2 IP, walking only 4 in that span with an ERA of 3.86. Brady Choban has an ERA of 2.13 to go with 12 K, 0 BB in 12.2 IP. Dylan Phillips has a 1.80 ERA with 2 BB to 12 K in 10 IP. Jerry Gonzalez has an ERA of 0.39 in his last 23.1 IP, 31 K in that time to 7 BB. Will Chrisopherson 34 K in 20 IP, 4.05 ERA. These are all reminiscent of what the superb AA bullpen has been doing, and perhaps is a hint that whatever development they've been doing on the farm with relievers (limiting walks especially) is starting to really connect.

Stefanic, Teodosio, Orlando Martinez, Hans Crouse, Tyler Thomas, Brett Kerry, all the AA relievers, may not land on Top 30 really anymore, but all look like they could have a shot at MLB impact.

I'm in no way endorsing the state of the farm, but I think it's fair to say at this point that we're seeing marked improvement on the fringes of the farm in the last month-ish. That's very encouraging. If this continues, and perhaps Perry does pull off a strong draft and sell on-paper, things may be trending in the right direction more than they have been in awhile, especially if we continue to see strong play from the kids in the bigs to wrap the year. It'd certainly let me buy into having Ron and maybe Perry together through 2025 to see how this new post-Ohtani plan is shaking out.

Edited June 8 by totdprods

[jsnpritchett]

 

Still wish he could have been turned into more than a month of Giolito and Lopez... Also, Ky Bush has a 2.18 ERA this year, a WHIP of just over 1, and is K'ing 10.1 per 9 innings. 

[jsnpritchett]

Placencia is 2 for 4 again tonight.  OPS is now .951.  With Stefanic coming up and Paris going to Salt Lake instead of Rocket City, I think they should move Placencia back up to Rocket City and just let him have 2B.  They're currently giving most of the time there to Mac McCroskey, who isn't a real prospect and who's currently sporting a .472 OPS.

[ScottM]

10 minutes ago, jsnpritchett said:

Placencia is 2 for 4 again tonight.  OPS is now .951.  With Stefanic coming up and Paris going to Salt Lake instead of Rocket City, I think they should move Placencia back up to Rocket City and just let him have 2B.  They're currently giving most of the time there to Mac McCroskey, who isn't a real prospect and who's currently sporting a .472 OPS.

Skip Tri City? 

[jsnpritchett]

6 minutes ago, ScottM said:

Skip Tri City? 

Sure, why not?  He already played there (and some at Rocket City) last year.  He didn't hit all that well at either place, which presumably is why he's back at IE--but I'd give him another shot at RC, given what he's done this year.  Tri-City is a terrible offensive environment in general, and the position players who are left now that Guzman and Gobbel got called up are pretty much all doing poorly (Coutney being the only exception, I guess).  I don't see how putting Placencia there would help him.

[arch stanton]

So when you look at guys like Quero, Bush, Bradish, it's not that they draft badly it's that they trade horrendously

[BTH]

16 hours ago, jsnpritchett said:

Placencia is 2 for 4 again tonight.  OPS is now .951.  With Stefanic coming up and Paris going to Salt Lake instead of Rocket City, I think they should move Placencia back up to Rocket City and just let him have 2B.  They're currently giving most of the time there to Mac McCroskey, who isn't a real prospect and who's currently sporting a .472 OPS.

Part of me wonders if there’s an issue with Placencia beyond the stat line.

Because I still don’t get why he was demoted to start the season. And his offense now is surely worthy of a promotion.

Whether it’s a discipline issue, defense, baserunning, or something.

[jsnpritchett]

Just now, BTH said:

Part of me wonders if there’s an issue with Placencia beyond the stat line.

Because I still don’t get why he was demoted to start the season. And his offense now is surely worthy of a promotion.

Whether it’s a discipline issue, defense, baserunning, or something.

Yeah, there must be some reason.  Whatever it is, I hope it gets figured out and we see what he can do in the higher levels.  At least offensively, it doesn't look like there's much to gain by leaving him at IE any longer. 

To your point, I wonder why Arol Vera seems to get a longer leash than Placencia, even though he's never really hit at all aside from about 40 games in the Arizona Complex League when he was 18.