Shohei Ohtani signs with the Dodgers (10 years, $700 million)

[totdprods]

The more I read, the more I think Shohei always wanted to be on the Dodgers, but it wasn’t feasible at the time since they didn’t have the DH to offer. He chose the next physically closest thing. I don’t think it was always set in stone he’d leave us for the Dodgers, but the Angels never truly contended enough and/or the Dodgers simply overwhelmed the financial offer the Angels were comfortable putting out there. 

With that in mind, it makes it an easier pill to swallow, seeing it instead as us having Ohtani during perhaps his peak years, cheapest years, maybe most exciting years as he proved himself - rather than it happening with another AL team. We were lucky we had him when we did and that the Dodgers didn’t have the DH, or else this never would have happened.

I hope, for his sake, he has a few monster years still, but I hope the Angels win the WS first/more, and I’m glad I don’t have to watch him ultimately start to age/struggle. 

[T.G.]

15 minutes ago, Jay said:

I kind of hope Ohtani sucks going forward. Is that bad?

I hope he does well, but I hope the Dodgers suck.

[T.G.]

This is funny... very well done...

 

 

[ten ocho recon scout]

2 hours ago, Jay said:

I kind of hope Ohtani sucks going forward. Is that bad?

No. We all do.

I also hope he wins 10 rings. 

It's back and forth. You love the guy and want him to succeed. But you also absolutely hope it backfires huge for the Dodgers.

Just normal fan stuff

[ten ocho recon scout]

1 hour ago, T.G. said:

This is funny... very well done...

 

 

That was great

[jsnpritchett]

 

[Jay]

3 hours ago, jsnpritchett said:

 

What about the Angels?

[ten ocho recon scout]

35 minutes ago, Jay said:

What about the Angels?

Read this earlier today and am wondering the same thing. I'm sure it was more or less the same, but he wanted LA..

[Angelsjunky]

Despite the numbers "10/$700M" I think the idea that the Dodgers out-offered everyone else is false. According to Fangraphs, the deferments make the contract equivalent to 10/$460M, and presumably someone else offered more than that, maybe significantly so. 

As others have said, Shohei seems to want to be a Dodger, and perhaps always did. It is quite a situation for him: Over the next decade he'll get tens of millions a year in endorsements, then when that slows down he'll be getting $68M a year not to play baseball. As some have speculated, that could be an angle into part ownership. 

[ten ocho recon scout]

1 hour ago, Angelsjunky said:

Despite the numbers "10/$700M" I think the idea that the Dodgers out-offered everyone else is false. According to Fangraphs, the deferments make the contract equivalent to 10/$460M, and presumably someone else offered more than that, maybe significantly so. 

As others have said, Shohei seems to want to be a Dodger, and perhaps always did. It is quite a situation for him: Over the next decade he'll get tens of millions a year in endorsements, then when that slows down he'll be getting $68M a year not to play baseball. As some have speculated, that could be an angle into part ownership. 

Yeah, I read that forst part yesterday, and it actually makes more sense now. Not sure who offered more, maybe that was the Toronto owner?

 

As for the last part.... I read that too. Who knows if it's true. But if so..... unless things go south for him in a big way the next few years, his time here is going to be hazier and hazier.

Didn't the Red Sox at least get money to fund a play for Ruth?

 

 

[Spirit]

2 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

As others have said, Shohei seems to want to be a Dodger, and perhaps always did. It is quite a situation for him: Over the next decade he'll get tens of millions a year in endorsements

 

I was surprised to learn that he was already making about $40 to $45 million a year in endorsements with the Angels. (Much of the money coming from endorsements back in Japan).  With this new deal, and being on a team that ESPN and other outlets want to fawn over, that number is likely to go way up.  $70M?  $80M?  Who knows.

I also wouldn't be surprised if New Balance really leaned into their relationship and created a Jordan-like "Jumpman" line and brand for him. That Nike deal alone has brought in over $1.5 billion for Jordan. 

 

[ten ocho recon scout]

27 minutes ago, Spirit said:

 

I was surprised to learn that he was already making about $40 to $45 million a year in endorsements with the Angels. (Much of the money coming from endorsements back in Japan).  With this new deal, and being on a team that ESPN and other outlets want to fawn over, that number is likely to go way up.  $70M?  $80M?  Who knows.

I also wouldn't be surprised if New Balance really leaned into their relationship and created a Jordan-like "Jumpman" line and brand for him. That Nike deal alone has brought in over $1.5 billion for Jordan. 

 

Was talking about this with someone yesterday. Ohtani is the most popular baseball player, in years (if not decades), by a wide margin. 

You have guys like Jeter and Papi who were maybe close, Griffey being the closest, who still don't touch his popularity. Meaning on a global, casual fan scale.

People in Europe are talking about him. Every major athlete has talked about him the past two years. 

Going to LA, he'll be the new Kobe. Ans there's a ton of money to be made on that. Baseball players aren't like NBA guys popularity wise. And even if Trout has his own Nike shoe, it's a cleat. Meaning only kids and guys playing baseball are going to buy it. Whereas Shohei and his popularity are going to lead to a ton more. 

Like you said, he's going to get richer and richer from endorsements. 

It's kind of crazy to think about. He's been super famous playing here the past few years, and now he'll become even bigger. And I don't mean that to knock the Angels, but the situation he's in now is pretty crazy. He has a chance to become the most popular athlete in the world (our time, not ever). Not sure any MLB player has ever been that, with soccer and the NBA out there (those two sports have a way bigger market than baseball does).

[cals]

You guys are assuming a lot.  There is a very good chance he never pitches effectively again.  And remember early on when he was presumably anxious and couldn’t find the strike zone?  You think that’s going to get better now when he’s under the microscope?

He’s probably more likely to be an above average DH for the next 5 years then decline from there then he is replicate anything he accomplished on the Angels.

Hell, I really wanted him back but my main concern was just that, not what he got paid (except as to how it affected payroll in general).  

My prediction is the Dodgers get the Angels Pujols years, not the Cardinals years.

[Spirit]

I appreciate you jumping in with your own assumptions.

 

[Angelsfan1984]

I assume his assumptions were ass as always. Just my well informed opinion about assumptions. 

[Angelsjunky]

49 minutes ago, cals said:

You guys are assuming a lot.  There is a very good chance he never pitches effectively again.  And remember early on when he was presumably anxious and couldn’t find the strike zone?  You think that’s going to get better now when he’s under the microscope?

He’s probably more likely to be an above average DH for the next 5 years then decline from there then he is replicate anything he accomplished on the Angels.

Hell, I really wanted him back but my main concern was just that, not what he got paid (except as to how it affected payroll in general).  

My prediction is the Dodgers get the Angels Pujols years, not the Cardinals years.

I hear what you are saying, but I think you're underselling if you are expecting him to merely be an "above average DH." He had a 180 wRC+ last year, best in the majors and equal to Trout's second best season. Even if that turns out to be a career year with the bat and he recapitulates his average numbers from the last three years, that's .279/.379/.585 with 41 HR and a 157 wRC+...which is still a top 10 hitter.

I'd be more worried about his pitching than hitting, though. I think he'll age well and be an elite hitter for half of his contract. He just cares too much and seems like a smart and humble guy, willing to make necessary adjustments (unlike the stubborn and arrogant Pujols).

 

[totdprods]

1 hour ago, cals said:

My prediction is the Dodgers get the Angels Pujols years, not the Cardinals years.

I’ve been thinking about this exact phrase but you put it better than I had drafted. 

I’m sitting back and enjoying what we got from him. Had the DH already been in the NL at the time, we probably never would have experienced that. It was a fun ride. Frankly? As adorable and lovable as Shohei is, it was gonna hurt when he inevitably started declining. Angels got the best out of him, IMO, even if he has a couple incredible years in him still.

[CaliAngel]

13 hours ago, Jay said:

What about the Angels?

Seems to me after waiting 6 years for the Angels to pull their heads out of their asses, he actually wants to make the playoffs ASAP as possible, and as we all know, the chances of the Angels doing that anytime soon is quite slim. 

He will have a couple more good years, although I really think his pitching is up in the air, however the best may honestly be behind him. 

[Chuck]

 

[totdprods]

1 hour ago, CaliAngel said:

Seems to me after waiting 6 years for the Angels to pull their heads out of their asses, he actually wants to make the playoffs ASAP as possible, and as we all know, the chances of the Angels doing that anytime soon is quite slim. 

He will have a couple more good years, although I really think his pitching is up in the air, however the best may honestly be behind him. 

Having watched Ohtani the last six years, I've learned that it's not wise to bet against him and his abilities. But he's in his thirties now, regression and decline is due to happen at some point, and a second TJS won't help, even if data shows there aren't any real observable trends. 

Also - he didn't exactly rebound quickly or smoothly after his first TJS. It cost him pitching for half of 2018, all of 2019, and virtually all of 2020 - even if the latter wasn't entirely TJS comeback related. He was pretty brutal in 2020 at the plate too. 

Ohtani pitching in 2024 isn't likely, and 2025 might not be certain either, be it effectively or frequently. Knowing that he might not be back to full pitching strength until 2026 is a possibility, it's another reason why the gamble might not have been worth it for the Halos.

FWIW, I think Ohtani still has quite a bit in the pitching tank still. I don't know that he'll be who he was, but he has the repertoire and savvy to turn into a pretty crafty, Darvish-esque arm in his 30s. Be interesting to see how Freeman and Betts do without being able to DH regularly as they get older too. Curious if he ultimately sees some playing time at 1B or a corner outfield at some point. Dodgers value versatility. Re-learning how to play the field after two TJs and several years off would be rough, even for a unicorn.

Edited December 13, 2023 by totdprods

[Redondo]

When is Ohtani getting his "Dodgers por vida" tattoo?

[Angelsfan1984]

5 minutes ago, Redondo said:

When is Ohtani getting his "Dodgers por vida" tattoo?

I'm very excited to see the posts that the Dodgers are wasting his career when they cant get passed the Braves.

[cals]

3 hours ago, Spirit said:

I appreciate you jumping in with your own assumptions.

 

You’re right, completely wrong forum for that.

[T.G.]

26 minutes ago, totdprods said:

But he's in his thirties now,

He's 29.  He'll be 30 next July.

[totdprods]

Just now, T.G. said:

He's 29.  He'll be 30 next July.

Yeah, his contract will be covering his thirties.

??