The Official Los Angeles Angels Minor League Stats, Reports & Scouting Thread

[rafibomb]

 

[Second Base]

Nitpicking, but I'll always hate FG's "FV" scale. It's never accurate. They still have Logan O'Hoppe and Zach Neto listed at 50 FV, which is average major leaguer, which is like 1.4-2.8 wins above replacement. Neto is currently on pace for what, like 5 WAR? O'Hoppe even in his short time was proving that he's definitely a lot better than an average major league catcher.

They have Jose Soriano, Ben Joyce, Sam Bachman and Chase Silseth all listed at 40 FV, which is an "up and down" guy. Yeak, ok. 

Now the ranking itself, I like.

Nelson Rada at #4, Jack Kochanowicz at #5 is aggressive but warranted, I think. They're low on Kyren Paris, but then, so are a lot of sites. 

[Inside Pitch]

1 hour ago, rafibomb said:

 

I don't know whats happened to FGs but some of their comments are pretty laughable.

[Chuck]

30 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

I don't know whats happened to FGs but some of their comments are pretty laughable.

They have Paris way too low. Morons! 

[rafibomb]

Also I don't know if we officially found out already but it looks like Coleman Crow has not pitched recently because of elbow inflammation

[Docwaukee]

Clearly he did zero research on Gesa stadium.  

[Angelsjunky]

I agree FG is off with Neto and probably O'Hoppe, both of whom should be 55/60 FV guys. I also think Rada is more projectable than they imply, and that Paris has the "it factor" to be a solid major leaguer. But...

He rightly points out two things:

One, the international signings have generally busted. That whole group we were all so excited about a couple years ago hasn't done well - I mean, none of them. Maybe Placencia still becomes a decent hitter, but who else? Vera, Ramirez, etc, look like they won't make it out of the mid-minors. Not a good look for the Angels international scouting department.

Two, the "Year of the Pitcher" isn't looking so good. I personally think people here have been overrating Silseth. He looked good in his first start, but has been nothing but batting practice since. With a flat fastball and no third pitch, he's probably more likely to be a long reliever. Bush and Marceaux will also likely end up as relievers. And Bachman...he's a bit busty, imo. Andrew Painter was a guy mentioned attach to the Angels and they passed on him for Bachman, evidently trying to be cute; meanwhile, Painter has become one of the best pitching prospects in baseball. Looking at his minor league numbers makes me nauseous.

Joyce is interesting, but that's about it at this point. Same with Madden. Crow is the type of guy who could sneak into being a pretty good pitcher, though still probably good reliever/back-end starter at best. I like what Koch is doing, but he essentially went from "projectable risk/reward prospect" to off the radar to decent pitching prospect.

So yeah, it is a bad farm system. Every year some of us come up with reasons to say it is better than it seems, yet not much comes of it. 

Anyhow, for me the biggest disappointment this year has been Werner Blakely. I thought he was a diamond in the rough, with a chance of being a really good player. Who knows, he's pretty young but has looked terrible this year.

Edited June 15, 2023 by Angelsjunky

[Inside Pitch]

1 minute ago, Chuckster70 said:

They have Paris way too low. Morons! 

Ill say this.  Hanging a 40 grade on him as a 21 year old isn't as bad as it may seem -- he's currently 2.5-3 years below the optimal age for his league and isn't embarrassing himself.   He's 21 and on pace for a 20+ HR 60+ BB, 35 SB season.  Yeah he's got a ton of swing and miss -- but he is making shit happen when he does make contact and gets on base.

Ranking him 28th is whatever -- I've come to not care about rankings much ... but some of their comments about him in particular seem to scream, ignore what he's actually doing, this is what you should expect from him because well, I think so.

[Chuck]

Just now, Inside Pitch said:

Ill say this.  Hanging a 40 grade on him as a 21 year old isn't as bad as it may seem -- he's currently 2.5-3 years below the optimal age for his league and isn't embarrassing himself.   He's 21 and on pace for a 20+ HR 60+ BB, 35 SB season.  Yeah he's got a ton of swing and miss -- but he is making shit happen when he does make contact and gets on base.

Ranking him 28th is whatever -- I've come to not care about rankings much ... but some of their comments about him in particular seem to scream, ignore what he's actually doing, this is what you should expect from him because well, I think so.

Well at least Baseball America got it right by including Koch in their top 10. 

[Inside Pitch]

11 minutes ago, Chuckster70 said:

Well at least Baseball America got it right by including Koch in their top 10. 

Koch's success this year is satisfying to me.  He's like the opposite of change-up guys that I have never been able to really place.  He was someone I'd watch and ask myself why it wasn't working -- because if you watched him, you saw it was in there but not materializing.  Kind of funny that it was something as simple as his arm slot.  It was so subtle I didn't even really noticed he wasn't as over the top anymore.

Guys like Kotch and all the Latin American kids you just have to ignore the counting/triple slash stats at times and watch them play.  I'll never ignore the predictive stuff but I'm really paying less and less attention to the traditional data these days.

[Second Base]

2 hours ago, Inside Pitch said:

Koch's success this year is satisfying to me.  He's like the opposite of change-up guys that I have never been able to really place.  He was someone I'd watch and ask myself why it wasn't working -- because if you watched him, you saw it was in there but not materializing.  Kind of funny that it was something as simple as his arm slot.  It was so subtle I didn't even really noticed he wasn't as over the top anymore.

Guys like Kotch and all the Latin American kids you just have to ignore the counting/triple slash stats at times and watch them play.  I'll never ignore the predictive stuff but I'm really paying less and less attention to the traditional data these days.

Same here, at least in terms of pitching predictive data. Observing pitch selection, mechanics, arm slot, repeatability, reactions, emotions... These all play a significant factor. I know @Chuckster70 has talked about this at length, but regardless of what the data is telling you, if you watch Sandoval's mannerisms, reactions, emotions then you know he's going straight into self-destruct mode and it's infuriating to witness time and time again. 

I knew Suarez's breakout was coming when he started relaxing, taking a deep breath and pitching at a snails pace. Same with Sandoval, the breakout came when he became almost disinterested in his expression. And ironically we've seen regression from both. Now Sandy is throwing tantrums again and with the new pace of play rules in effect, I don't think Suarez won be successful anymore with the same approach. 

I finally got around to watching a few of Kochanowicz starts and the different arm slot is giving him this late darting action on all his pitches. It almost seems like he could tell them what's coming and they still hit choppers right at the infielders. And he really isn't trying to strike anyone out, though when you have his stuff and build those will inevitably come. He's just trying to hit his spots and occasionally mix it up. That's really it, as far as I can tell, maybe you're seeing something different. 

And the simplicity of it makes me optimistic that these traits are transferable at any level. Big guy, good extension, lots of movement, hitting his spots. Repeatable. 

[Docwaukee]

4 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

ignore what he's actually doing, this is what you should expect from him because well, I think so.

I think this is pervasive throughout the entire article.  

[Angel Oracle]

I guess future amateur pitching scouting will have to take into account how pitchers may be able to handle the pitch clock?

[mmc]

[Chuck]

16 hours ago, Second Base said:

These all play a significant factor. I know @Chuckster70 has talked about this at length, but regardless of what the data is telling you, if you watch Sandoval's mannerisms, reactions, emotions then you know he's going straight into self-destruct mode and it's infuriating to witness time and time again. 

[Inside Pitch]

On 6/15/2023 at 7:39 PM, Second Base said:

I finally got around to watching a few of Kochanowicz starts and the different arm slot is giving him this late darting action on all his pitches. It almost seems like he could tell them what's coming and they still hit choppers right at the infielders. And he really isn't trying to strike anyone out, though when you have his stuff and build those will inevitably come. He's just trying to hit his spots and occasionally mix it up. That's really it, as far as I can tell, maybe you're seeing something different. 

And the simplicity of it makes me optimistic that these traits are transferable at any level. Big guy, good extension, lots of movement, hitting his spots. Repeatable. 

Much like I was convinced CRod could go from never having pitched above A ball to getting MLB outs, I could totally see Koch making the jump and holding his own.  It's not nearly the same situation based on pure stuff, it's the simplicity of here it is - hit it into the ground.

He's still going to grow into something better, but he could easily generate outs on the ground at the MLB level right now IMO.

[Inside Pitch]

17 hours ago, Docwaukee said:

I think this is pervasive throughout the entire article.  

I know we have talked about this a few times, but it's nuts how far their minor league stuff has slipped.

[khouse]

[T.G.]

For a brief moment there, I read that as Louis Farrakhan.

[Tank]

On 6/13/2023 at 4:02 PM, Make Angels Great Again said:

Jesus. Andrew Velazquez is hitting .182 in AAA. He may be the worst hitter ever.

check the jeff mathis has a broken collarbone thread.

[Docwaukee]

2 hours ago, Inside Pitch said:

I know we have talked about this a few times, but it's nuts how far their minor league stuff has slipped.

I appreciate the fact that they actually took some time to give a little info on some of the newer guys to the system but so many of their assessments and conclusions are highly anecdotal.  And while they might use a particular set of criteria for one guy, the next guy gets a completely different set.  And it's mostly centered around a single data point or two.  Paris strikes out too much.  Adrian Placencia doesn't hit for a high average.  It's like they're all who they're ever going to be right now with little emphasis on what they could be and more importantly, their current performance WITH context.  

[BTH]

On 6/16/2023 at 1:37 PM, Inside Pitch said:

Much like I was convinced CRod could go from never having pitched above A ball to getting MLB outs, I could totally see Koch making the jump and holding his own.  It's not nearly the same situation based on pure stuff, it's the simplicity of here it is - hit it into the ground.

He's still going to grow into something better, but he could easily generate outs on the ground at the MLB level right now IMO.

Agreed.

Kochanowicz would be at, or near, the top of the Angels SP depth chart in terms of MLB depth in-case of injury IMO.

[BTH]

On 6/15/2023 at 3:26 PM, Angelsjunky said:

One, the international signings have generally busted. That whole group we were all so excited about a couple years ago hasn't done well - I mean, none of them. Maybe Placencia still becomes a decent hitter, but who else? Vera, Ramirez, etc, look like they won't make it out of the mid-minors. Not a good look for the Angels international scouting department.

Well, they canned the old international scouting director. And the new one’s first class brought in Edgar Quero. And now Nelson Rada. Plus guys like Nixon Encarnacion, Randy De Jesus, and Dario Laverde.

so it’s looking better.

[Revad]

An excerpt about Kyren Paris from Fangraphs David Laurila’s Sunday notes:

Kyren Paris has a little bit of Javier Báez to his game. No. 19 our recently released Los Angeles Angels Top Prospects list, the 21-year-old Oakley, California native displays plus athleticism at both shortstop and second base, pairs sneaky pop with a troublesome strikeout rate, and he believes in expressing himself on the field. In 268 plate appearances with the Double-A Rocket City Trash Pandas, Paris is slashing .240/.362/.422 with 11 home runs and 88 punchouts. A threat on the basepaths, he has 20 steals in 21 attempts.

When I talked to him during his Arizona Fall League stint with the Scottsdale Scorpions, Paris described his offensive approach as “looking to shoot the ball gap-to-gap,” and his defensive game as “having fun out there and trying to put on a show.” He told me that he prefers short over second, as the position is “kind of the captain on the field, and I’m able to show off my arm a little bit.” Combining weight training and yoga, he’s remained agile while adding strength to what is now a 6-foot, 185-pound frame.

He brought up Báez when I asked about players he’s admired and/or modeled his game after.

“When I was growing up, I liked stealing bases like Rickey Henderson,” Paris told me. “I loved Derek Jeter for the way he carried himself on and off the field. Another guy I’ve loved to watch is Javier Báez. He plays with a little bit of flair, and that’s what I like to do. Baseball is tough, and going out there and playing with flair makes the game even more fun.”

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/sunday-notes-joe-jacques-debuted-with-a-violation-in-the-rain/

 

[Second Base]

I think inevitably, we'll begin to see a course correction I'm overall baseball philosophy. More recently, teams cared much less about strikeouts as long as power and OBP were present. An out is an out regardless of how it occurs and because of that, speed meant less as the game shifted to a station to station model of play. 

With the new rules, speed has again become a larger focus, and with players getting into scoring position more frequently, contact has taken on a greater emphasis.

And defensively, poor defense used to be a little more tolerable because more often than not, an error would only cost one base and with strikeouts on the rise, the chances of this backfiring were lower. Now, with stealing reaching a generational high, an error will frequently cost more than a single base and subsequently, more runs. 

How does this relate to Kyren Paris? It makes it interesting to see how he is valued. On the one hand, we have a young, athletic, defensively gifted middle infielder with enough power and speed to truly make a difference. On the other hand, he's posting extremely high strikeout rates and a very low batting average.

So is this a starter or utility infielder? And the answer to that question likely comes down to team needs and make up. With Neto entrenching himself as the emotional spark plug and starting shortstop, it pushes Paris to 2B where he could pair quite well with Neto. However, this team already has Rengifo, Urshela, Drury and Fletcher as options at 2B and utility infielder. 

Patience will likely be the approach of the Angels with Paris. If they thought he was ready, they would've promoted him already with Neto and Urshela going down.  They'll add him to the 40 man next year and see if they can continue to help him develop more contact skills. And being only 21, he likely can wait out the departure of Urshela and Drury, or a potential Rengifo trade.