Now what? What moves would you like to see them make.

[TempeAngel]

18 minutes ago, Pancake Bear said:

it is almost certainly not going to happen

Fixed. I saved you a shitload of unnecessary typing.

William Safire would now applaud your brevity.

[Pancake Bear]

3 minutes ago, TempeAngel said:

Fixed. I saved you a shitload of unnecessary typing.

William Safire would now applaud your brevity.

Since you have no optimism about the team and seem to hope they will lose, maybe you'd prefer to discuss the team on angelssuck.com . Might be a better fit for you.

[TempeAngel]

31 minutes ago, Pancake Bear said:

Since you have no optimism about the team and seem to hope they will lose, maybe you'd prefer to discuss the team on angelssuck.com . Might be a better fit for you.

Not true. I am an Angels fan since my Dad took me to games in the 1970's. The first game I can remember was with Frank Tanana on the mound and Dave Chalk at 3B. Game six was one of the happiest of days of my life.

You have entirely missed the point.

Do you know who William Safire was?

Do you know why I mentioned him in response to your post?

Do you understand sarcasm?

Good night @Pancake Bear

[ten ocho recon scout]

3 hours ago, Pancake Bear said:

 

Edit: I should also add that it would give us extra protection against Ohtani leaving on two levels. If the money is roughly equal and isn't the issue between staying or going., signing Correa is evidence we're all-in. And if Ohtani does walk, next year is a shallow free agent class, so Correa effectively replaces Ohtani's production at the plate. 

This has been my take the whole time. And the shitty thing is that I don't see Correa as a super duper star, one who is going to be worth the money. (Like I felt about Rendon, back when I assumed he was going to be healthy and actually help us).

That said, if we try to save money now to sign Ohtani, and Ohtani still leaves, great, we have money in our pocket. But next years FA class is pretty weak, I don't think we have anyone in the minors that projects to be a star player in the next 2-3 years, and Trout will only get older and older. 

Correa isn't the guy I want in all honesty. (And for what he signs for we're all probably going to be blown away). But he is the best fit for the team right now. 

We're not getting him. I doubt we're even trying to. But he'd be a pretty exciting addition. 

[Warfarin]

7 hours ago, ThisismineScios said:

I think you prioritize SS so you know where the budget is at. Are you spending $25 million AAV? $10 million? Once they know, they can fill that 4th OF spot. Ideally you fill it on a minor league contract.

There seems to be a logjam right now, but I think Swanson, Correa, and Rodon will open that up. There are so many teams in that it'll loosen it up a bit, for trades especially. The Angels are in on Swanson, I'm guessing, so they are waiting to see what happens before making a move. 

I do wonder how much they are in on him.  Nobody really knows, given how tight-lipped the Angels are.  I have seen a lot of people connect the Angels to Swanson - is it due to the Minasian / Swanson ties in ATL?  Or because he was the cheapest of the "big 4"?

But anyway, time will tell.  Minasian's pursuit of Contreras does provide some hope that Arte is willing to go over the luxury tax.  He is most certainly not being aggressive and doing whatever it takes to win, which we are seeing from the Padres and Mets, but at least there is some openness involved.

As for the 4th OF, I agree that it can be a minor league contract.  I'd like to see Minasian start to sign a few guys in the same way he has done with RP to help fill that role.  I think there is promise in Moniak in that I think he can probably capably fill that role with some growth, but given that he's not there yet, I'd rather find another option now as he tries to figure it out in AAA.  I have little hope for Adell at this point.

[Warfarin]

7 hours ago, Pancake Bear said:

There's too much competition for him and too much money out there, so I have no expectations of it actually happening, but Carlos Correa is a really good ball player and I wish we'd go all in and sign him. He'll only be 28 next season which fits our window. Despite concerns about his durability, the last three seasons he's been pretty healthy. Minnesota wants him back, so apparently he's a good clubhouse guy. He fills a clear position of need, and we need to maximize this season and the next few before the Trout window closes. 

Edit: I should also add that it would give us extra protection against Ohtani leaving on two levels. If the money is roughly equal and isn't the issue between staying or going., signing Correa is evidence we're all-in. And if Ohtani does walk, next year is a shallow free agent class, so Correa effectively replaces Ohtani's production at the plate. 

 

6 hours ago, Trendon said:

I’d love to see the Angels sign Correa, especially for this reason. But I doubt it happens.

The free agent starting pitching class looks good, so you could sign Correa now and have offensive insurance and then go out and sign a pitcher (Flaherty, Giolito, Nola, Severino, Urías, etc.) to replace the pitching side if Ohtani leaves.

I have not really touched upon this, but I do agree that signing Correa (or maybe Swanson) would provide "Ohtani insurance," and that next year's market is very weak in terms of position players.  This team needs offense, so it'd be pretty difficult to absorb the loss of Ohtani's offense, especially because we have a dearth of high level offensive prospects in the minors currently.

Given the new ownership group would be in place, I would assume they would want to make a big splash, and the logical connection is signing Ohtani to a record-breaking contract.  If, however, he decides to go elsewhere even if we have the highest offer, I agree that we can pivot to signing a great pitcher.  If all else fails, I guess we would have to punt for (another) year, and then participate in what appears to be a stunningly good 2024-2025 free agency class.

But, yeah, who wants to wait 2 more years?

[Warfarin]

6 hours ago, Pancake Bear said:

Right, and I agree it is almost certainly not going to happen for all the obvious reasons. What gives me a tinge of hope is the sale and Minasian's approach this offseason. Budget has clearly gone up, and that might be due to new ownership coming in imminently. Minasian was pursuing a $15m+ catcher of all things, and while the Angels have always denied the luxury tax was something they were unwilling to cross, this season I actually believe they might.

Minasian says he looks for opportunities and if it makes sense to him, he makes his case for it with ownership. Yesterday, Jayson Stark had an article quoting an executive who made a distinction between hunting good deals and hunting good players. The deals Minasian has made so far seem like relatively good players on good deals. But if we're really serious about winning, we need to think about where we can make up the most value.

Contreras was a player I hadn't even considered, but he actually makes sense as a good deal for a good player. And the pursuit of him shows that Minasian is not simply looking for under-the-radar moves, he is willing to go for the top player on the market. And he saw that we rated really badly on catcher last year, making it a position where he could get a significant bang for his buck.

I think Swanson will be a huge mistake for whoever signs him. I'm not sold on Senga either. If we're going to spend money, the two that make the most sense would be Rodon and Correa. The question is, which makes the most sense as far as improving the team? I actually like our SP depth okay at the moment. It isn't amazing, but it could be sneaky good based on last season and who we have available to step in.

Currently, we rate at 28th on FG depth charts at SS with a putrid 2.1 projected fWAR. Correa was the 9th best SS last season, but he also played less games than anyone above him. None of the 8 guys above him had a higher wRC+. Over the last five years, only 4 guys are above him in fWAR, and one of those is Swanson, mostly based on defense and an absurd BABIP in 2020 and 2022. Only Trea Turner and Bogaerts had a higher wRC+ in that time (Bogaerts was basically tied: 131 to 130).

Signing Correa would move us up from the bottom five at shortstop to top five. It would move Fletcher to utility and make our bench IF Urshela and Fletcher, which is absurd depth. It would make our lineup that much more dangerous. Basically, it would automatically make us a contender.

The question is, would he sign with the Angels? Supposedly the Yankees are making a play for him, but I'm skeptical he really wants to play for the Yankees, and similar to the Dodgers, I have a hard time seeing them all in for him after 2017. The Giants and Cubs have money to spend, and Minnesota wants him back, but all of them rank worse than we do in projected WAR for 2023. Supposedly Correa has family who are Angel fans, and who wouldn't want to play with Trout and Ohtani? Urshela is a buddy of his. I feel like if the money was there - a gigantic but unlikely if, imo - he would probably sign.

It makes sense on paper, but what it really comes down to is how much the Angels will spend. You'd think they have all the reasons in the world to go all-in right now, but until they do, it's just a dream.

Yeah.  I mean, if we signed Correa, I'd be excited.  He'd be a huge upgrade for us and certainly the "easiest" route to go, as it is just a simple signing.  As you and others have mentioned too, it strategically makes sense if you look at the market next year and realize there will be no one of significant impact available, and our upper minors don't have a lot of talent in terms of position players outside of O'Hoppe and, probably, Neto.

I still think the Giants will ultimately sign him, as they have a lot of money to spend and are looking to make a splash.  I think the Yankees will pass and try for Rodon.  I think the Cubs will sign Swanson.  And I think the Red Sox will sign nobody, because they do have Trevor Story already, who can slide over to SS now.

That said, if I am wrong and the Angels surprise us all, I will be stoked.

[Hubs]

12 hours ago, Trendon said:

I never said anything about them being 1.5 win players.

Even if they are like 0.5 win players, that’s better than Adell and Moniak (who are negative win players)

For what it’s worth fangraphs depth chart projections have Moniak at 0.3 WAR over the three positions. I was saying they need to be 1 or 1.5 WAR guys to be worth spending a few million on. And be capable fill ins. I don’t see the offensive upside to kiermaier… and the other guys give me Lagares vibes.

I’d rather see another RP.

[Warfarin]

Just now, Hubs said:

For what it’s worth fangraphs depth chart projections have Moniak at 0.3 WAR over the three positions. I was saying they need to be 1 or 1.5 WAR guys to be worth spending a few million on. And be capable fill ins. I don’t see the offensive upside to kiermaier… and the other guys give me Lagares vibes.

I’d rather see another RP.

When it comes to the OF, what I will say is perhaps consider the overall poor health we have seen from Trout and recently Ward.  There is a realistic possibility both Trout and Ward will be out at the same time.  If that comes to fruition, and we are forced to start Moniak and Adell out there for awhile, that will be a gigantic blow to our playoff chances.

We've highlighted in other threads how we can flex out various guys to cover the corner OF spots, but I think in a situation where guys are out for extended times, they will probably call up true OFers to take their place.  I think that is why, IMO, we need a 4th OF.  If we have an injury situation as per above, it'd probably be a lot easier to swallow with a decent 4th OF being the first option, and then Moniak being the second option.

[Angels 1961]

To be a team that wants to compete for playoff spot Angels need a top SS and another top pitcher. Angels will need to go over tax lux line. It is really that simple. Correa and a Bassitt will put halos with top teams. 

[T.G.]

1 hour ago, Warfarin said:

There is a realistic possibility both Trout and Ward will be out at the same time

There is a realistic possibility they will both be relatively healthy all year too.

[Warfarin]

2 minutes ago, T.G. said:

There is a realistic possibility they will both be relatively healthy all year too.

There is.  But historically, this team has gotten into trouble in part due to its lack of contingency options in case injury occurs.  It is prudent to have a good plan in place, to prepare for the worst, and hope for the best.

[greginpsca]

3 hours ago, Hubs said:

For what it’s worth fangraphs depth chart projections have Moniak at 0.3 WAR over the three positions. I was saying they need to be 1 or 1.5 WAR guys to be worth spending a few million on. And be capable fill ins. I don’t see the offensive upside to kiermaier… and the other guys give me Lagares vibes.

I’d rather see another RP.

Fangraphs is doing nothing but guessing, based on just a cup of coffee that Moniak had last year. I would rather an up n Comer than someone at the end of their career. Let the kid prove himself. He just might get to 1 - 1.5. No more Gentry's, Nava's,& Joyces.

[BTH]

3 hours ago, Hubs said:

For what it’s worth fangraphs depth chart projections have Moniak at 0.3 WAR over the three positions. I was saying they need to be 1 or 1.5 WAR guys to be worth spending a few million on. And be capable fill ins. I don’t see the offensive upside to kiermaier… and the other guys give me Lagares vibes.

The thing about getting a 4th OF is they not only replace Moniak/Adell, but they push those two down so that you don’t have to use Whitefield, Thomas, Harrison, Aguilar, Lagares, Sierra, etc.

So even if a 4th OF is only adding 0.5 fWAR, they’re replacing -1 to -1.5 WAR in total.

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

They really need to DFA Patrick O'Neal.

[Warfarin]

8 hours ago, greginpsca said:

Fangraphs is doing nothing but guessing, based on just a cup of coffee that Moniak had last year. I would rather an up n Comer than someone at the end of their career. Let the kid prove himself. He just might get to 1 - 1.5. No more Gentry's, Nava's,& Joyces.

 

8 hours ago, Trendon said:

The thing about getting a 4th OF is they not only replace Moniak/Adell, but they push those two down so that you don’t have to use Whitefield, Thomas, Harrison, Aguilar, Lagares, Sierra, etc.

So even if a 4th OF is only adding 0.5 fWAR, they’re replacing -1 to -1.5 WAR in total.

This is my feeling as well.  You try to structure your team so that your young players earn their way into spots - they aren't just handed one and hope it works out.  So by acquiring a 4th OF, you give Moniak and Adell time to work on their games and improve.  There will be injuries at some point, and if Moniak has shown well, he will most certainly get a chance to get recalled and play.  You just don't want to start the season with him as the main backup, because in case he doesn't develop, then you are forced to field a variety of sub-replacement level players again.

[Taylor]

This thread jinxed the Angels.

[Angels 1961]

If Angels signed a Segura or Andrus would that take away AB from Gio?

[Pancake Bear]

13 minutes ago, Angels 1961 said:

If Angels signed a Segura or Andrus would that take away AB from Gio?

I don't think Urshela is gonna play much middle infield. But if they feel comfortable enough with his defense there, then his bat should get him into the lineup at shortstop a day or two a week as well, in addition to third and first. 

[Angels 1961]

1 minute ago, Pancake Bear said:

I don't think Urshela is gonna play much middle infield. But if they feel comfortable enough with his defense there, then his bat should get him into the lineup at shortstop a day or two a week as well, in addition to third and first. 

I could see him especially early in season play 3rd 2 times a week. First against lefties, but if they signed a SS Rengifo goes to 2B. You would want his bat in lineup.

[BTH]

28 minutes ago, Angels 1961 said:

If Angels signed a Segura or Andrus would that take away AB from Gio?

On paper it might, but in reality, it'd only take like 50 plate appearances away. Basically, it'd reduce any chance that he starts at SS.

[Pancake Bear]

11 minutes ago, Angels 1961 said:

I could see him especially early in season play 3rd 2 times a week. First against lefties, but if they signed a SS Rengifo goes to 2B. You would want his bat in lineup.

Presumably they will add a shortstop. It really depends on who it is. 

Let's say they went gangbusters and signed Correa, they're not going to want his bat out of the lineup, so he's playing basically every day. But what if it's Andrus? Or if they end up not finding the right deal and it's Fletcher and Rengifo up the middle? In those scenarios, I could see Urshela playing at short twice a week, assuming he's playing well. As far as first base, it'll depend whether Walsh has rebounded, but I'd expect him to sit at least against lefties. 

[Docwaukee]

I wonder how much Brian Anderson would cost.  He's got a bit of versatility on top of corner OFer.  Good OF defender.  Seems to have some statcast data that Perry might like.  And looks like he had some launch angle issues last year.  Get a fresh start.  Can play 3b.  Has played 1b.  Even stood at 2b and SS a bit.  Can't imagine he'd be more that 3-4 mil.  

[Pancake Bear]

58 minutes ago, Docwaukee said:

I wonder how much Brian Anderson would cost.  He's got a bit of versatility on top of corner OFer.  Good OF defender.  Seems to have some statcast data that Perry might like.  And looks like he had some launch angle issues last year.  Get a fresh start.  Can play 3b.  Has played 1b.  Even stood at 2b and SS a bit.  Can't imagine he'd be more that 3-4 mil.  

https://www.mlb.com/news/brian-anderson-nick-neidert-non-tendered-by-marlins

"According to Cot's Baseball Contracts, Anderson would've been due around $6.75 million in arbitration."

So, presumably less than that.

[CanadianHalo]

As this slowly plays out more it’s looking much like the same old type of offseason

The Anderson deal was just too good to pass up. Renfroe/Urshela more of the same 1 year commitment deals we’ve seen in the past 

The interest in Contreras falls under the same category as the Anderson deal. If Bassitt can be had for a similar deal I’d do that. 

If Perry is close to his budget limit and this offseason was about fielding a winning team to convince Ohtani to stay, he’s failed yet again. Unless new ownership is willing to throw around money like Cohen, our best chance at success in the near future is to trade Ohtani