Now what? What moves would you like to see them make.

[ten ocho recon scout]

6 hours ago, T.G. said:

It's Dec. 7

Pearl Harbor?

Does that mean we're signing Senga?

[ukyah]

16 minutes ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

Pearl Harbor?

Does that mean we're signing Senga?

 

too soon?

[Angels 1961]

Angels trade Taylor Ward to White Sox for Liam Hendriks and sign Benitendi to play LF. 

[Stax]

Angels sign Carlos Rodón

[Angels 1961]

Cheap 4th OF could be Rafael Ortga. Decent OBP with speed. With new rules speed and SB will be important.

[OhtaniSan]

I think spending on a 4th OF right now would be among the stupidest moves they could make. 

Sure, maybe a minor league signing or waiver pickup for an OF making league minimum would be fine. But there are far more important needs that should be addressed before resources are allocated to a 4th OF. Among all our other needs (SS, SP, and 1B, CL to a lesser degree) a backup OF shouldn't even be on the radar in terms of where $$$ and resources should be spent. 

Even more so because 4th OF is inherently an easier fix than a starting SS or SP. Plus, Moniak and Adell could already fill the 4th OF spot just fine.

 

It reminds me of an argument from earlier in the offseason on this forum that made a ton of sense to me: The "I trust Rengifo/Fletcher/Soto at 2B/SS, more than I trust Adell/Moniak in LF."

To me, it should now be: "I trust Adell/Moniak as a 4th OF more than I trust Fletcher as our starting SS" 

[Angels 1961]

12 minutes ago, OhtaniSan said:

I think spending on a 4th OF right now would be among the stupidest moves they could make. 

Sure, maybe a minor league signing or waiver pickup for an OF making league minimum would be fine. But there are far more important needs that should be addressed before resources are allocated to a 4th OF. Among all our other needs (SS, SP, and 1B, CL to a lesser degree) a backup OF shouldn't even be on the radar in terms of where $$$ and resources should be spent. 

Even more so because 4th OF is inherently an easier fix than a starting SS or SP. Plus, Moniak and Adell could already fill the 4th OF spot just fine.

 

It reminds me of an argument from earlier in the offseason on this forum that made a ton of sense to me: The "I trust Rengifo/Fletcher/Soto at 2B/SS, more than I trust Adell/Moniak in LF."

To me, it should now be: "I trust Adell/Moniak as a 4th OF more than I trust Fletcher as our starting SS" 

Ortega be cheap 

[tdawg87]

Wapner would be cheaper.

[BTH]

1 hour ago, OhtaniSan said:

I think spending on a 4th OF right now would be among the stupidest moves they could make. 

Even more so because 4th OF is inherently an easier fix than a starting SS or SP. Plus, Moniak and Adell could already fill the 4th OF spot just fine.

Ok, but here's the thing: since it's a 4th OF is so easy to fix, why not just fix it? I don't see how $2M-$3M for a 4th OF would hinder their efforts to sign other players. Especially if they aren't treating the luxury tax as a hard line they can't go over.

There's clear cheap solutions to the 4th OF problem. There aren't clear cheap solutions for the SS problem.

[Hubs]

5 minutes ago, Trendon said:

Ok, but here's the thing: since it's a 4th OF is so easy to fix, why not just fix it? I don't see how $2M-$3M for a 4th OF would hinder their efforts to sign other players. Especially if they aren't treating the luxury tax as a hard line they can't go over.

There's clear cheap solutions to the 4th OF problem. There aren't clear cheap solutions for the SS problem.

It wouldn't break the budget but name who you want to sign for that amount. I don't see anyone who would sign for that, who is better than Adell or Moniak, and would be ok being a backup. 

Joey Gallo maybe? I mean really there isn't anyone available and they can get that guy in February or March. 

Sign or trade for an INF!

Edited December 10, 2022 by Hubs

[BTH]

8 minutes ago, Hubs said:

It wouldn't break the budget but name who you want to sign for that amount. I don't see anyone who would sign for that, who is better than Adell or Moniak, and would be ok being a backup. 

Corey Dickerson, Adam Engel, Ben Gamel, Robbie Grossman, Jordan Luplow, Tyler Naquin, Rafael Ortega, or Raimel Tapia.

[Hubs]

1 minute ago, Trendon said:

Corey Dickerson, Adam Engel, Ben Gamel, Robbie Grossman, Jordan Luplow, Tyler Naquin, Rafael Ortega, or Raimel Tapia.

Agree to disagree. None of those guys are 1.5 win players except maybe Dickerson and Ortega if given real playing time.

I'm fine with adding any of them on a minor league deal, but wouldn't commit the playing time or money over Moniak and Adell.

The biggest thing is these guys all came off sub .300 OBP 2022 seasons. Except Ortega.

 

 

[Stradling]

I’d see how much Kiermeirer costs 

[Angels 1961]

You want 4th OF with decent OBP, speed and defense. Also, someone that bats from left side and can get for 1 million. Ortega comes to mind.

[greginpsca]

We had Ortega as a 4th offer a few years ago. And he was worse han Adell & Moniak hitting wise. He was good defensively, with a good arm. I would just go with Moniak.

[BTH]

1 hour ago, Hubs said:

Agree to disagree. None of those guys are 1.5 win players except maybe Dickerson and Ortega if given real playing time.

I never said anything about them being 1.5 win players.

Even if they are like 0.5 win players, that’s better than Adell and Moniak (who are negative win players)

[BTH]

41 minutes ago, greginpsca said:

We had Ortega as a 4th offer a few years ago. And he was worse han Adell & Moniak hitting wise. He was good defensively, with a good arm. I would just go with Moniak.

Over the last two seasons, he’s had a 108 wRC+

Writing him off based on his performance 6 years ago would be ignorant.

[Warfarin]

27 minutes ago, Trendon said:

I never said anything about them being 1.5 win players.

Even if they are like 0.5 win players, that’s better than Adell and Moniak (who are negative win players)

I think that is the key part to me.  For probably 2-3mil, you can upgrade the spot and probably at least 1-2 wins in the process.  Moniak could develop, but you don't want to enter the season penciling him in, in case he doesn't.  It's always ideal to have guys like Moniak, Adell, etc in AAA and prove they belong, instead of just being forced to have them on the roster because we have no better options.

A starting SS is important, and condoning getting a backup OF does not preclude acquiring a SS.  I think we can rather easily do both, IMO.

[BTH]

9 minutes ago, Warfarin said:

A starting SS is important, and condoning getting a backup OF does not preclude acquiring a SS.  I think we can rather easily do both, IMO.

Agreed.

Backup OF should be super easy to fill, although it might be one of the last moves made because free agents may hold onto hope they’ll get a starting role before finally accepting a backup role as Spring Training nears.

[ThisismineScios]

I think you prioritize SS so you know where the budget is at. Are you spending $25 million AAV? $10 million? Once they know, they can fill that 4th OF spot. Ideally you fill it on a minor league contract.

There seems to be a logjam right now, but I think Swanson, Correa, and Rodon will open that up. There are so many teams in that it'll loosen it up a bit, for trades especially. The Angels are in on Swanson, I'm guessing, so they are waiting to see what happens before making a move. 

[Pancake Bear]

I honestly hope they are not in on Swanson. Where Correa seems to be holding out for the right number, I think Swanson is either going to get a contract well below what he wants or some desperate team is going to bet on the upside and end up disappointed. 

Looking through the last few years from him month by month, it seems like he's very streaky, but it has nothing to do with changing his approach and everything to do with BABIP. When his BABIP is around .370 or better, he's a really good hitter, but when it drops to .320 or worse, he's no better than league average. He's pretty good defensively, but otherwise the best thing I can say about him is he puts up decent power numbers for a shortstop and he's only going into his age 29 season. Even betting on the upside, 4 years, $100 would feel like an overpay, and the market suggests he'll get much more. I'd love to hear anyone argue why the above isn't true and he actually is worth big money.

Based on the off-season so far, I trust Perry to be more opportunistic in finding value than making a desperation signing of Dansby Swanson. 

[Pancake Bear]

There's too much competition for him and too much money out there, so I have no expectations of it actually happening, but Carlos Correa is a really good ball player and I wish we'd go all in and sign him. He'll only be 28 next season which fits our window. Despite concerns about his durability, the last three seasons he's been pretty healthy. Minnesota wants him back, so apparently he's a good clubhouse guy. He fills a clear position of need, and we need to maximize this season and the next few before the Trout window closes. 

Edit: I should also add that it would give us extra protection against Ohtani leaving on two levels. If the money is roughly equal and isn't the issue between staying or going., signing Correa is evidence we're all-in. And if Ohtani does walk, next year is a shallow free agent class, so Correa effectively replaces Ohtani's production at the plate. 

[BTH]

18 minutes ago, Pancake Bear said:

And if Ohtani does walk, next year is a shallow free agent class, so Correa effectively replaces Ohtani's production at the plate. 

I’d love to see the Angels sign Correa, especially for this reason. But I doubt it happens.

The free agent starting pitching class looks good, so you could sign Correa now and have offensive insurance and then go out and sign a pitcher (Flaherty, Giolito, Nola, Severino, Urías, etc.) to replace the pitching side if Ohtani leaves.

[BTH]

I think Dansby gets close to $200M based on the way this market has trended.

And if that’s the case, I’d say there’s no chance the Angels sign him.

There are still too many teams (BOS, CHC, MIN, SF) that want a SS with only 2 top shortstops left.

[Pancake Bear]

1 hour ago, Trendon said:

I’d love to see the Angels sign Correa, especially for this reason. But I doubt it happens.

The free agent starting pitching class looks good, so you could sign Correa now and have offensive insurance and then go out and sign a pitcher (Flaherty, Giolito, Nola, Severino, Urías, etc.) to replace the pitching side if Ohtani leaves.

Right, and I agree it is almost certainly not going to happen for all the obvious reasons. What gives me a tinge of hope is the sale and Minasian's approach this offseason. Budget has clearly gone up, and that might be due to new ownership coming in imminently. Minasian was pursuing a $15m+ catcher of all things, and while the Angels have always denied the luxury tax was something they were unwilling to cross, this season I actually believe they might.

Minasian says he looks for opportunities and if it makes sense to him, he makes his case for it with ownership. Yesterday, Jayson Stark had an article quoting an executive who made a distinction between hunting good deals and hunting good players. The deals Minasian has made so far seem like relatively good players on good deals. But if we're really serious about winning, we need to think about where we can make up the most value.

Contreras was a player I hadn't even considered, but he actually makes sense as a good deal for a good player. And the pursuit of him shows that Minasian is not simply looking for under-the-radar moves, he is willing to go for the top player on the market. And he saw that we rated really badly on catcher last year, making it a position where he could get a significant bang for his buck.

I think Swanson will be a huge mistake for whoever signs him. I'm not sold on Senga either. If we're going to spend money, the two that make the most sense would be Rodon and Correa. The question is, which makes the most sense as far as improving the team? I actually like our SP depth okay at the moment. It isn't amazing, but it could be sneaky good based on last season and who we have available to step in.

Currently, we rate at 28th on FG depth charts at SS with a putrid 2.1 projected fWAR. Correa was the 9th best SS last season, but he also played less games than anyone above him. None of the 8 guys above him had a higher wRC+. Over the last five years, only 4 guys are above him in fWAR, and one of those is Swanson, mostly based on defense and an absurd BABIP in 2020 and 2022. Only Trea Turner and Bogaerts had a higher wRC+ in that time (Bogaerts was basically tied: 131 to 130).

Signing Correa would move us up from the bottom five at shortstop to top five. It would move Fletcher to utility and make our bench IF Urshela and Fletcher, which is absurd depth. It would make our lineup that much more dangerous. Basically, it would automatically make us a contender.

The question is, would he sign with the Angels? Supposedly the Yankees are making a play for him, but I'm skeptical he really wants to play for the Yankees, and similar to the Dodgers, I have a hard time seeing them all in for him after 2017. The Giants and Cubs have money to spend, and Minnesota wants him back, but all of them rank worse than we do in projected WAR for 2023. Supposedly Correa has family who are Angel fans, and who wouldn't want to play with Trout and Ohtani? Urshela is a buddy of his. I feel like if the money was there - a gigantic but unlikely if, imo - he would probably sign.

It makes sense on paper, but what it really comes down to is how much the Angels will spend. You'd think they have all the reasons in the world to go all-in right now, but until they do, it's just a dream.