Shortstop candidates for the Halos

[Erstad Grit]

1 hour ago, floplag said:

I have no interest in Swanson at this point, hes going to get way over paid for what he is.

I dont really want to make a trade that might cost us what we would need to make a better acquisition later such as Torres / Adames / Farmer, i fear it will cost us more than we get back.   None of those guys to me are worth Sandoval for example. 

At this point i wonder if Segura can still play SS or looking at Andrus as a stop gap... this is not what i hoped for, but thats what were down to.

The impact window has closed on us, we let it go by,  now we have zero leverage, and Ohtani has zero reason to extend. 

As usual we started off strong then failed in crunch time.  Unless Perry can swing some trade im not seeing right now that doesnt cost us too much on an already weak farm, were in deep trouble.

Yeah this. 

The SS market went crazy and it makes sense why we shifted towards Contreras at C, but that didn't work either. 

At this point it looks like sign some pen options and hope Fletcher or Andrus/segura/Simmons/Drury can play

 

[Dtwncbad]

3 minutes ago, Erstad Grit said:

Yeah this. 

The SS market went crazy and it makes sense why we shifted towards Contreras at C, but that didn't work either. 

At this point it looks like sign some pen options and hope Fletcher or Andrus/segura/Simmons/Drury can play

 

I don’t understand when fans make assumptions like they “shifted towards Contreras at C.”

We know they are interested in upgrading SS and improving the offense overall.

Hearing that they made a play for Contreras doesn’t mean they “shifted” their attention away from SS (or other needs).

All we know by them being interested in Contreras is they were interested in Contreras.

And as far as the “the market went crazy” comment, I am not sure it is “crazy”. To me it’s more like the actual market is just revealing itself. . .and the Angels need to decide if they prioritize winning or trying to beat the market.

I know which I prefer.

[Angels 1961]

15 minutes ago, Erstad Grit said:

Yeah this. 

The SS market went crazy and it makes sense why we shifted towards Contreras at C, but that didn't work either. 

At this point it looks like sign some pen options and hope Fletcher or Andrus/segura/Simmons/Drury can play

 

Andrus had a nice year in 2022. With rule changes he could be a 20 SB guy this year.

[Warfarin]

24 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

I don’t understand when fans make assumptions like they “shifted towards Contreras at C.”

We know they are interested in upgrading SS and improving the offense overall.

Hearing that they made a play for Contreras doesn’t mean they “shifted” their attention away from SS (or other needs).

All we know by them being interested in Contreras is they were interested in Contreras.

And as far as the “the market went crazy” comment, I am not sure it is “crazy”. To me it’s more like the actual market is just revealing itself. . .and the Angels need to decide if they prioritize winning or trying to beat the market.

I know which I prefer.

This decision, though, likely almost entirely rests with Moreno.  Even if Minasian said "yes, I think we should spend 200/7 on Swanson because our team really needs a strong SS," if Moreno says "no, I am not going to spend that kind of money on a team I am selling," then there is nothing anyone can do.

None of us can know what Moreno's priority is.  It is probably not going "all in" a la Cohen, the Padres' owner, etc.  I can only guess he would probably like to see this team win, but at a cost he is comfortable with.

My guess, and it is merely just a guess, is that Swanson, and all of those other SSs, are probably outside of what Moreno is willing to spend.

[Angels 1961]

22 minutes ago, Warfarin said:

This decision, though, likely almost entirely rests with Moreno.  Even if Minasian said "yes, I think we should spend 200/7 on Swanson because our team really needs a strong SS," if Moreno says "no, I am not going to spend that kind of money on a team I am selling," then there is nothing anyone can do.

None of us can know what Moreno's priority is.  It is probably not going "all in" a la Cohen, the Padres' owner, etc.  I can only guess he would probably like to see this team win, but at a cost he is comfortable with.

My guess, and it is merely just a guess, is that Swanson, and all of those other SSs, are probably outside of what Moreno is willing to spend.

Maybe Moreno is not Hungry Man any more

[Chuck]

1 hour ago, Warfarin said:

The Padres have emptied out their entire farm system and acquired / signed every star they possibly can.  They are as “all in” as any team can be right now.  I cannot fathom them trading away anyone right now.

On the contrary, they may want to reload their system because of that same very reason. The Padres system is pretty void of talent after the last three years of dealing away everyone and their collective moms down on the farm. 

[BTH]

1 minute ago, Chuckster70 said:

On the contrary, they may want to reload their system because of that same very reason. The Padres system is pretty void of talent after the last three years of dealing away everyone and their collective moms down on the farm. 

why would they go all-in and then start worrying about their farm in the middle of their contention window?

After next season, Machado can opt-out and Snell and Darvish are free agents. This is their year to go for it. There's no chance they trade Tatis Jr, and Robert Murray already shut down that speculation on his podcast Monday.

[Warfarin]

5 minutes ago, Chuckster70 said:

On the contrary, they may want to reload their system because of that same very reason. The Padres system is pretty void of talent after the last three years of dealing away everyone and their collective moms down on the farm. 

I can appreciate the idea of trying to balance between the MLB roster and the farm system, but everything signals the Padres pushing in all their chips.  The way they just pivoted from star player to star player this offseason, basically offering a ton of money to anyone who would take it, signals that they know their time is limited and they need to win NOW.  There is no way they are going to be able to re-sign Soto and keep all of these pieces together.  A lot of their SP will be free agents soon.  The time for them to win is in the next 2 years.  I could be wrong, but my sense is they will do whatever they can to win it all right now.

[beatlesrule]

2 minutes ago, Chuckster70 said:

On the contrary, they may want to reload their system because of that same very reason. The Padres system is pretty void of talent after the last three years of dealing away everyone and their collective moms down on the farm. 

What kind of talent are the Angels going to be able to give them though? Plus, how much of the 340 million would the Padres pay for? You then have the headache of having a talented but immature player on your team that will still be really expensive. I still have no idea why the Padres gave an unproven player that much money and commitment. Bellinger and Tatis had a very similar bWAR their first 3 years. Imagine if the Dodgers had given him that kind of money the way he is playing now?

[Erstad Grit]

2 hours ago, Dtwncbad said:

I don’t understand when fans make assumptions like they “shifted towards Contreras at C.”

We know they are interested in upgrading SS and improving the offense overall.

Hearing that they made a play for Contreras doesn’t mean they “shifted” their attention away from SS (or other needs).

All we know by them being interested in Contreras is they were interested in Contreras.

And as far as the “the market went crazy” comment, I am not sure it is “crazy”. To me it’s more like the actual market is just revealing itself. . .and the Angels need to decide if they prioritize winning or trying to beat the market.

I know which I prefer.

So before the off-season you thought Correa would get 350?

[Dtwncbad]

Just now, Erstad Grit said:

So before the off-season you thought Correa would get 350?

I didn’t know what he would get.  But am I surprised?  No.  Do I think the market has “gone crazy”?  No.

I think most teams can afford to pay way more than they choose to pay, and that doesn’t make the teams paying the big contracts “crazy.”

It would be crazy if it threatened the financial solvency of the business, and there is absolutely no evidence that is happening anywhere in the sport.

So it’s not “crazy.”

 

[Blarg]

6 hours ago, Dtwncbad said:

Maybe you should read my post where I explicitly said “I don’t expect him to be a 6.4WAR going forward.”

In what sane, rational world is that exact quote anything other than specifically NOT “taking last years hitting line as an indication of his future performance”?

Are you drunk?  It’s a fair question.

It's also a fair question, are you sure this is a player that moves the club forward? I feel like you've convinced yourself of his worth ignoring the red flags that his defense is really his only selling point. I think it's name brand purchasing instead of real need and future value. 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/how-much-should-we-believe-in-dansby-swanson/

 

[Stradling]

5 hours ago, floplag said:

I have no interest in Swanson at this point, hes going to get way over paid for what he is.

I dont really want to make a trade that might cost us what we would need to make a better acquisition later such as Torres / Adames / Farmer, i fear it will cost us more than we get back.   None of those guys to me are worth Sandoval for example. 

At this point i wonder if Segura can still play SS or looking at Andrus as a stop gap... this is not what i hoped for, but thats what were down to.

The impact window has closed on us, we let it go by,  now we have zero leverage, and Ohtani has zero reason to extend. 

As usual we started off strong then failed in crunch time.  Unless Perry can swing some trade im not seeing right now that doesnt cost us too much on an already weak farm, were in deep trouble.

Impact window has closed?  Jesus Christ. 

[Dtwncbad]

30 minutes ago, Blarg said:

It's also a fair question, are you sure this is a player that moves the club forward? I feel like you've convinced yourself of his worth ignoring the red flags that his defense is really his only selling point. I think it's name brand purchasing instead of real need and future value. 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/how-much-should-we-believe-in-dansby-swanson/

 

Swanson is “name brand” purchasing?  Uh, OK.

Am I sure this is a player that moves the club forward?

Rarely does a single player by themself “move a club forward.”

You need a good overall roster.  This club needs a SS and it is pretty silly to turn your nose up at Swanson as an everyday shortstop.

Yes I want the Angels to address the need at SS, just like they should address other areas of need.

If they suddenly decided to only sign individual players that by themselves “move the club forward” then they would probably pass on pretty much everybody, and continue to suck and continue to miss the postseason.

Yeah, I’m not down with that plan.

Build a roster with as few glaring needs and holes as possible.  Then you will probably be happy with how the club “moves forward.”

Edited December 15, 2022 by Dtwncbad

[Dtwncbad]

Here is a chart from the fan graphs article that Blarg linked.

This chart makes me want Swanson as the best overall value of the “Big 4” free agent SS.

[Blarg]

Did you read the article or only look for what you wanted to see? 

[Inside Pitch]

2 hours ago, Stradling said:

Impact window has closed?  Jesus Christ. 

I'm more perplexed by the notion the Angels ever had leverage... 

How often do teams on a 7 year losing season streak, up for sale, questions regarding the future of one of their cornerstone players, and in the same division as the team to play in the last six ALCS, have any leverage at all?  Oh yeah, they are also located in CA.

The Angels situation paints them as a team that might have to overpay regardless of the situation.  Hell, I think part of why Minasian was able to get Urshela and Fat Trout, is because those guys had no say regarding where they would play.

[tdawg87]

Swanson definitely isn't the answer if signing him prevents us from improving the depth at other areas of need (LF, BP). He raises the floor for sure, but I feel like there are better value options we aren't really seeing (which goes to Blarg's "brand name" comment).

Would I be upset if the Angels signed him? Nope. But they can't stop there. We need an outfielder almost as bad as a SS, and definitely more room for a reliever or two, and probably a starter. 

[Dtwncbad]

14 minutes ago, Blarg said:

Did you read the article or only look for what you wanted to see? 

I can read Blarg.  It doesn’t mean I have to buy into the author’s overall narrative.

Are you capable of having your own view on something or do you just find an article and insist that’s the truth because it’s an article?

Edited December 15, 2022 by Dtwncbad

[Warfarin]

10 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

Swanson definitely isn't the answer if signing him prevents us from improving the depth at other areas of need (LF, BP). He raises the floor for sure, but I feel like there are better value options we aren't really seeing (which goes to Blarg's "brand name" comment).

Would I be upset if the Angels signed him? Nope. But they can't stop there. We need an outfielder almost as bad as a SS, and definitely more room for a reliever or two, and probably a starter. 

I think that is basically the crux of the differing viewpoints.  There are people who, understandably, feel the team should spend whatever it takes to field a competitive team.  They likely want Swanson, another SP, a significant reliever, and (probably?) OF depth.

In a vacuum, without a budget, all of that sounds great.  But the reality of life is everyone has a budget, even Cohen.  This team, under Moreno, has never vastly exceeded its previous budgets, which makes it difficult to envision that transpiring now.  So I think a number of fans here recognize this and try to map out what they feel is a more realistic series of events.  I think the ones you have outlined, given our (likely) financial limitations, makes the most sense - spread the money around and fix areas that are significantly cheaper to fix than what it would take to sign Swanson (or the now signed other top 3 star SSs).

Looking at it another way, they could have opted to go into the offseason and pooled all of their available resources into signing, say, Correa, OR they could have instead done what they have done - sign Anderson, acquire Renfroe, acquire Urshela, sign Estevez.  Likely the latter has a better overall impact on helping this team win more games than the former route.

[Docwaukee]

7 hours ago, Dtwncbad said:

You cite the possible downside.  No argument.  He strikes out a ton.

a harbinger of bad things to come. 

7 hours ago, Dtwncbad said:

But a very fair sample size of his OPS would be his last 4 years?

his prime which he might have 1-2 more years of 

7 hours ago, Dtwncbad said:

Do you know where that would rank on last years team?  He would be batting cleanup.

Yes, the team had a terrible offense last year.  But they should potentially make a bad contract decision to overcome that?  

7 hours ago, Dtwncbad said:

But the guy is still in his twenties.

for one more season

7 hours ago, Dtwncbad said:

Normally guys will power have some of their best years in terms of power ages 29-33ish.

http://blogs.fangraphs.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/agecurve_wrc.png

7 hours ago, Dtwncbad said:

Forgive me if I am perfectly accepting of a guy that plays damn good defense and legitimately has the capability of hitting a three run homer to win a game in the 8th inning. . .compared to what the Angels have now at SS.

that would be awesome for 2023.  Until he starts hitting .195 with 200 ks.  The risk of that is real.  Let's see how accepting we'll become if that happens.  And again, I agree that some risk is ok when you really need help at a particular spot.  But not for 6 years at 25m per.  

7 hours ago, Dtwncbad said:

This is a fit issue for me.  We can pick apart his game pretty easily.  But the argument isn’t that he can’t be picked at, the argument is he changes a problem to not having a problem.

he's potentially a trade of a headache for diabetes.  The problem could get a lot worse very quickly.  

7 hours ago, Dtwncbad said:

This team was ridiculously impotent in terms of SLG last year in 6 batting spots in the lineup.  Pitchers could just pitch around 3 guys and then sail through the rest of the lineup with zero worry that a mistake would cost them even a solo homer.  Swanson converts one spot in the lineup from that specific vulnerability to a guy pitchers need to pay attention to, who can hurt you.

I agree but there are other guys that could do that with much less risk.  

7 hours ago, Dtwncbad said:

Swanson doesn’t have to be an high level All-Star offensively to be a huge upgrade offensively at short.

he better be damn close for 6/150.  

7 hours ago, Dtwncbad said:

Look, I really don’t care who they get to play SS.  But they have to be reliable, play really good defense and be able to contribute offensively.

Swanson checks off that box.  If they figure it out another way, fine with me.

I just don’t want to be so picky that the Angel pass on every player that could actually represent a real upgrade and end up with garbage again.

I don't disagree with this.  It's for how long he checks those boxes that's my concern.  If future money isn't an issue then I'd be down.  

7 hours ago, Dtwncbad said:

I think the team need to win over the next couple of years and it’s not my money and I prefer to spend for a solution than trade away talent from the system.

depends on how restrictive the contract becomes along with Rendon, Trout and hopefully Ohtani.  I go back and forth whether to just say F it and go all in.  I hope the new owner is willing to fund that because I don't want to trade guys away either.  The big problem is if he's not and a crappy swanson contract restricts what we can do.  Then we're back to where we are now 

8 hours ago, Dtwncbad said:

Given all that, I am not going to shy away from pursuing Swanson because he ain’t perfect and isn’t on the same level as the other 3 big name SS.

every player has warts.  putting yourself in an untenable position to not be able to treat those warts and move on is way too familiar.  

I don't dislike Swanson at all.  I think he's a nice player and could continue to be for a couple years at least if not more.  I don't like what how much it's gonna cost to deal with those warts and praying it doesn't get worse.

If potentially eating 50-75 mil of the last 3 years if something that's not a big deal then sure.  Go get him.  I just have a hard time imagining that will be the case.  

[Warfarin]

 

 

[TempeAngel]

Dansby Swanson to the Angels is a moot point.

There must be something else to discuss...

[Inside Pitch]

17 minutes ago, Warfarin said:

 

 

One of the guys lost during Dipoto's purge....  Good to see this happen.

[ten ocho recon scout]

1 hour ago, Inside Pitch said:

I'm more perplexed by the notion the Angels ever had leverage... 

How often do teams on a 7 year losing season streak, up for sale, questions regarding the future of one of their cornerstone players, and in the same division as the team to play in the last six ALCS, have any leverage at all?  Oh yeah, they are also located in CA.

The Angels situation paints them as a team that might have to overpay regardless of the situation.  Hell, I think part of why Minasian was able to get Urshela and Fat Trout, is because those guys had no say regarding where they would play.