Shortstop candidates for the Halos

[Jeff Fletcher]

1 hour ago, Dtwncbad said:

But free agency plays a very important role also.  If a team finds itself in a situation where adding a couple of specific players will level the team up into a contention, then that’s what you do.

This is exactly right. Premium free agents are for when your team is at a point in which adding 3-4 wins in the first couple years of the deal changes your outlook dramatically enough to be worth the fact that you’re going to have a bad contract after that. 
 

Whether or not the Angels are at that point is in the eyes of the beholder. 
 

What’s your win expectation for the current roster? How many wins does Player X add? What are the chances that when Player X is an albatross (when not if) that your farm system can cover for that?

These are the questions you need to answer when considering any big FA contract. 

[Taylor]

[Angels 1961]

24 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

This is exactly right. Premium free agents are for when your team is at a point in which adding 3-4 wins in the first couple years of the deal changes your outlook dramatically enough to be worth the fact that you’re going to have a bad contract after that. 
 

Whether or not the Angels are at that point is in the eyes of the beholder. 
 

What’s your win expectation for the current roster? How many wins does Player X add? What are the chances that when Player X is an albatross (when not if) that your farm system can cover for that?

These are the questions you need to answer when considering any big FA contract. 

If halos get a SS do you think it will be a trade or FA?

[Angel Oracle]

The other question, given Minasuan’s silence the past 3+ weeks since the Renfroe trade:

Has Arte Moreno drawn a budget line that is right around the current payroll?

Still $20 million under tax threshold 

[Jeff Fletcher]

7 minutes ago, Angels 1961 said:

If halos get a SS do you think it will be a trade or FA?

I don’t know. Could be either. 

[Angels 1961]

1 minute ago, Angel Oracle said:

The other question, given Minasuan’s silence the past 3+ weeks since the Renfroe trade:

Has Arte Moreno drawn a budget line that is right around the current payroll?

Still $20 million under tax threshold 

He did sign relief pitcher. I think for SS is waiting till Swanson signs then maybe go after Andrus or make trade. Starting pitching getting thin, as for Thor do not know if Angels had any intertest. I thought he was going to get 2 to 3 year deal. Halos really need upgrade in 3 spots SS, SP and maybe BP piece. 4th OF spot be Moniak, Adell or someone signed to minor league deal.

[Jeff Fletcher]

6 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

The other question, given Minasuan’s silence the past 3+ weeks since the Renfroe trade:

Has Arte Moreno drawn a budget line that is right around the current payroll?

Still $20 million under tax threshold 

He said at the winter meetings last week that they still could go over the luxury tax. And we subsequently learned they made a run at Willson Contreras. 

[Dtwncbad]

21 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

This is exactly right. Premium free agents are for when your team is at a point in which adding 3-4 wins in the first couple years of the deal changes your outlook dramatically enough to be worth the fact that you’re going to have a bad contract after that. 
 

Whether or not the Angels are at that point is in the eyes of the beholder. 
 

What’s your win expectation for the current roster? How many wins does Player X add? What are the chances that when Player X is an albatross (when not if) that your farm system can cover for that?

These are the questions you need to answer when considering any big FA contract. 

I personally buy into the exponential effect that can happen when too much of the lineup is what I have been calling “impotent”. . .

If a team has like 3-4 consecutive spots in the lineup that are really not dangerous at all, the cumulative effect is staggering.  Pitchers have zero fear of any mistake hurting them and they also are not very concerned if the walk someone because the next guy also can’t hurt them.

I think this was a monster problem last year with how that lineup looked.

So this brings me to a guy like Swanson.  By no means am I saying this guy is an offensive juggernaut.  But he is a dangerous hitter.

My theory is dropping a guy like this into a bating spot like 7th has a greater effect than just his own offensive number would indicate.

It changes the way the pitcher must approach the entire inning, and a mistake or a walk to a hitter in front of Swanson now suddenly puts the pitcher in a situation where another mistake can cost him two runs in a blink.

Further, at least being a decent hitter that might find himself at second base, Swanson can now score on a blooper by a lousy 8th hitter.

Do you believe that plugging even competent, not impotent bat (somebody that can hit a three run homer) into what was a sequence of horrible hitters, can have a drastic change on the overall output of that segment of the lineup?

This is why I am begging for a shortstop that has at least some danger element in their offensive game.

Given the point I am trying to make, to me it makes the play for Swanson much more reasonable strategically speaking in terms of trying to (as best you can) fix the offense.

 

[Docwaukee]

33 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

Do you believe that plugging even competent, not impotent bat (somebody that can hit a three run homer) into what was a sequence of horrible hitters, can have a drastic change on the overall output of that segment of the lineup?

you keep throwing out that a competent bat is someone who can hit a 3 run hr.  Adell to Trout fit that criteria.  A huge chunk of Swanson's value is tied to his defense and not necessarily his bat.  

I do agree that having a longer lineup is worth more than the sum of the parts.  And having a guy with a wRC+ of 100 or slightly above would be nice but that's not a terribly difficult thing to find for less than 6/150.  Like in the form of a Gio Urshela or Hunter Renfroe.  Whose bats have both been consistently better than Swanson.   I presume the cost to find a guy with an avg bat and avg defense is probably a bit more pricey than what those two others cost because of it being a premium position.   

So if the argument is to lengthen the lineup (which I know isn't the only argument) then that's fine but you have to be confident that his value is at least somewhat sustainable for a decent portion of his contract.   

[Revad]

Swanson would be a good bet for next year but not long term.  Not a good 6-7 years. $22+ Million bet.  If Artie was going for it we would have already signed Judge no matter the cost, so I figure we’re staying under the luxury tax and Swanson would take us over.

 

[T.G.]

3 hours ago, Taylor said:

The funny thing is Bob Barker wasn't the one who said those words...

[Dtwncbad]

1 hour ago, Docwaukee said:

You keep throwing out that a competent bat is someone who can hit a 3 run hr.  Adell to Trout fit that criteria.

I am still excited about a good future for Adell, but let’s be honest.

The only way you can compare Adell to Swanson is if Adell’s home run output quadruples and he learns to play shortstop really well.

 

[Dtwncbad]

3 minutes ago, T.G. said:

The funny thing is Bob Barker wasn't the one who said those words...

Brian Downing used to say it to his wife.

[Warfarin]

5 minutes ago, Revad said:

Swanson would be a good bet for next year but not long term.  Not a good 6-7 years. $22+ Million bet.  If Artie was going for it we would have already signed Judge no matter the cost, so I figure we’re staying under the luxury tax and Swanson would take us over.

 

I just see Swanson as a "not just yet" type of acquisition, as in, I think he would be someone we should go for in the future, but not at this present time.  I don't think he is "THE" piece to get us over the hump.  Even with him, it is in doubt, and given how these contracts typically go (most value at the beginning, then decrease sharply thereafter), I'd rather take our shot at these kinds of contracts in 1-2 years, when I think our contention window will be more open / stronger.

[Pancake Bear]

30 minutes ago, Warfarin said:

I just see Swanson as a "not just yet" type of acquisition, as in, I think he would be someone we should go for in the future, but not at this present time.  I don't think he is "THE" piece to get us over the hump.  Even with him, it is in doubt, and given how these contracts typically go (most value at the beginning, then decrease sharply thereafter), I'd rather take our shot at these kinds of contracts in 1-2 years, when I think our contention window will be more open / stronger.

There is no "not yet" with this team. This  is our window. We don't have a 3-5 years from now window. Our best players are over the edge of their primes now. Whether we're ready or not, now is when we have to go for it, or Trout is out of luck. And the free agent class next year sucks.

[Warfarin]

16 minutes ago, Pancake Bear said:

There is no "not yet" with this team. This  is our window. We don't have a 3-5 years from now window. Our best players are over the edge of their primes now. Whether we're ready or not, now is when we have to go for it, or Trout is out of luck. And the free agent class next year sucks.

Position players are weak, but we could always swing a trade using SP to acquire position players.  For example, if we were so inclined, we could re-sign Ohtani to a monster deal and sign, say, Julio Urias.  We would then have a very stacked rotation and can deal from that surplus to acquire whatever areas are weaknesses, etc.

[Dtwncbad]

1 minute ago, Warfarin said:

Position players are weak, but we could always swing a trade using SP to acquire position players.  For example, if we were so inclined, we could re-sign Ohtani to a monster deal and sign, say, Julio Urias.  We would then have a very stacked rotation and can deal from that surplus to acquire whatever areas are weaknesses, etc.

I don’t see why the plan to step up and compete is better next year rather than now.  Why?

[Pancake Bear]

8 minutes ago, Warfarin said:

Position players are weak, but we could always swing a trade using SP to acquire position players.  For example, if we were so inclined, we could re-sign Ohtani to a monster deal and sign, say, Julio Urias.  We would then have a very stacked rotation and can deal from that surplus to acquire whatever areas are weaknesses, etc.

But why wait a year? There will be no shortstops next year.

[Warfarin]

10 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

I don’t see why the plan to step up and compete is better next year rather than now.  Why?

 

4 minutes ago, Pancake Bear said:

But why wait a year? There will be no shortstops next year.

I am not saying what my ultimate preference is, but rather, I am saying what I think is more likely to transpire.  I do not foresee Moreno ultimately spending what Swanson would want as a free agent.  But I have hope that the new owner would be willing to spend, but that will not transpire until next offseason.

In a vacuum, sure - I would have loved it if Arte had spent wildly this offseason, having some sort of agreement with the future owner that this was the plan - hike up the payroll to 250-300mil this year, then have the new owner pay the bill, etc.

But I never saw that as likely, and based on how this offseason as going, I think that assessment is correct.

[Angel Oracle]

19 minutes ago, Warfarin said:

Position players are weak, but we could always swing a trade using SP to acquire position players.  For example, if we were so inclined, we could re-sign Ohtani to a monster deal and sign, say, Julio Urias.  We would then have a very stacked rotation and can deal from that surplus to acquire whatever areas are weaknesses, etc.

Don’t the Halos have enough lefty starters as it is?

[Angels 1961]

2 minutes ago, Warfarin said:

 

I am not saying what my ultimate preference is, but rather, I am saying what I think is more likely to transpire.  I do not foresee Moreno ultimately spending what Swanson would want as a free agent.  But I have hope that the new owner would be willing to spend, but that will not transpire until next offseason.

Next offseason Angels will need a LF, SS, SP plus middle order bat if Ohtani leaves. Who knows about 2B, 1B halos will have many positions to fill. This is another season of patch work to put team together to try and compete. Minor league system still very weak especially with position prospects. Until farm system is built up Angels will be in same boat. Angels have a chance to build up farm but that would take trading Ohtani. If Ohtani leaves it might be time for total rebuild.

[Warfarin]

9 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

Don’t the Halos have enough lefty starters as it is?

We would trade one of the ones we have to net a significant position player.  Doesn’t have to be Urias, he was just one of the first names that came to mind.  I was just merely illustrating an example of how we could use next year’s market to secure a position player.

[Warfarin]

11 minutes ago, Angels 1961 said:

Next offseason Angels will need a LF, SS, SP plus middle order bat if Ohtani leaves. Who knows about 2B, 1B halos will have many positions to fill. This is another season of patch work to put team together to try and compete. Minor league system still very weak especially with position prospects. Until farm system is built up Angels will be in same boat. Angels have a chance to build up farm but that would take trading Ohtani. If Ohtani leaves it might be time for total rebuild.

Valid points.  Obviously the key to all of this if Ohtani.  If we can get him to stay, it should make things considerably easier.

After next season, we should have a better idea of how Neto and O’Hoppe are progressing.  Maybe they are the future, maybe they are not.  Dichiara and Paris are both in AA too - maybe they develop more, maybe they don’t.

A lot of growth can occur internally, we can’t necessarily rule it out.  Minasian’s future will ultimately be determined by how much those young kids grow and whether they can take on significant MLB roles.  If they can, he will save money in those areas, and in turn be able to take significant calculated risks in free agency in other areas.

[Taylor]

1 hour ago, T.G. said:

The funny thing is Bob Barker wasn't the one who said those words...

True.

Elvis Andrus went on The Price Is Right when Drew Carrey was hosting.

[Angels 1961]

13 minutes ago, Warfarin said:

Valid points.  Obviously the key to all of this if Ohtani.  If we can get him to stay, it should make things considerably easier.

After next season, we should have a better idea of how Neto and O’Hoppe are progressing.  Maybe they are the future, maybe they are not.  Dichiara and Paris are both in AA too - maybe they develop more, maybe they don’t.

A lot of growth can occur internally, we can’t necessarily rule it out.  Minasian’s future will ultimately be determined by how much those young kids grow and whether they can take on significant MLB roles.  If they can, he will save money in those areas, and in turn be able to take significant calculated risks in free agency in other areas.

Ohtani, I believe is why Angels not in on signing any top SS. Moreno will leave it up to new owners to try and sign him. They are saving money to try and sign Ohtani. Another big hole in 2024 could be 3B if Rendon cannot stay on field in 23. O'Hoppe might be ready this year but I hope they do not rush him. Minasian was counting on both Marsh and Adell being ready last year and I hated Marsh being traded but O'Hoppe could fill catcher positions for years to come.