Official 2022-23 Offseason Hot Stove Thread

[jsnpritchett]

6 minutes ago, Second Base said:

I think one name I would strongly consider acquiring is Merrill Kelly. He's built a decent floor as an inning eating back end starter at 8 million per year, and his ceiling, as we saw last year is a very good mid rotation starter. 

 

Arizona just signed him to an extension before the '22 season--and then he went out and had a very good year.  He's controlled for two years at a very reasonable cost, given where the pitching market is these days.  Not sure they have much incentive to trade him unless someone offers an overpay.  Their payroll is very manageable.

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

14 hours ago, Warfarin said:

Unfortunately, I think if he doesn't make adjustments, you have someone who isn't an MLB player - not a 4th OF.  Ideally, a 4th OF has a decent enough hit tool and can cover all 3 OF spots.  Adell has great power, but a very poor hit tool (currently) and can only effectively field one position.

I think, for now, "discard" is the most likely option, if he can't significantly improve his ability to make contact.

Send Adell to the school Ohtani went to after the 2020 season. They do swing adjustments right?

[Second Base]

7 minutes ago, jsnpritchett said:

Arizona just signed him to an extension before the '22 season--and then he went out and had a very good year.  He's controlled for two years at a very reasonable cost, given where the pitching market is these days.  Not sure they have much incentive to trade him unless someone offers an overpay.  Their payroll is very manageable.

All good points. I just figured that might be someone attainable if we offered Rengifo. 

[Angel Oracle]

1 hour ago, Make Angels Great Again said:

This probably means they would be eyeing Ward...

 

Would any of you do Ward for Lopez or Luzardo? I'd be nervous due to our lack of OF depth and the potential for Ward to break into a perennial 900+ OPS guy.

 

Exactly, maybe Ward is the Halos answer to Josh Donaldson, late developer?

[Angel Oracle]

36 minutes ago, Ace-Of-Diamonds said:

Johnny Cueto?

He made only half of what Kluber made in 2022 ($8 million vs $4.3 million).

Definitely doable 

[Angels 1961]

35 minutes ago, Ace-Of-Diamonds said:

Johnny Cueto?

I would love Cueto add some flair to team. I do think most starters do not want to pitch in 6-man rotation.

[Angel Oracle]

Just now, Angels 1961 said:

I would love Cueto add some flair to team. I do think most starters do not want to pitch in 6-man rotation.

He’s at an age where a 6 man rotation could be beneficial, especially if he’s okay with a one year deal.

Edited December 29, 2022 by Angel Oracle

[Warfarin]

25 minutes ago, Second Base said:

Pretty similar argument as Jared Walsh. I think it's pretty clear the league adjusted, but many here still cling to their perceived value. I understand it. 

Mm, we’ll see.  I am bullish on Ward and think there’s a reason the Dodgers tried to pluck him.  I think he has very good pitch recognition and plate discipline, which should help him stay as a very solid player moving forward.  We’ll see though.

[Angel Oracle]

Just now, Warfarin said:

Mm, we’ll see.  I am bullish on Ward and think there’s a reason the Dodgers tried to pluck him.  I think he has very good pitch recognition and plate discipline, which should help him stay as a very solid player moving forward.  We’ll see though.

Still think the injury affected him, as he mostly hit the ball well from 2020 through June 2022.

Platooning him (only facing righties) with Urshela or Drury should produce solid 1B numbers.

[Angel Oracle]

30 minutes ago, Second Base said:

I think one name I would strongly consider acquiring is Merrill Kelly. He's built a decent floor as an inning eating back end starter at 8 million per year, and his ceiling, as we saw last year is a very good mid rotation starter. 

 

RHP, only owed $18 million total through 2024 with team option for 2025.

Late developer (age 34), innings eater, solid 2022 stats all around

[Warfarin]

6 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

Still think the injury affected him, as he mostly hit the ball well from 2020 through June 2022.

Platooning him (only facing righties) with Urshela or Drury should produce solid 1B numbers.

I think you are referring to Walsh.  I was referencing Ward.

[Dtwncbad]

I am a lot more sure of Pablo Lopez natural ability than I am of Taylor Ward’s natural ability.

There is a damn good chance this is the highest trade value Ward will ever have.

One of my concerns with him is admittedly not very scientific.  But I can’t help “see it.”

I don’t think he is really a gifted natural hitter.  He seems overly mechanical, a designed swing if you will, and applying those mechanics and swing design to their maximum benefit.  That makes him a hard worker, etc., but it doesn’t convince me of long term success.

But if there is any truth to this assessment, then I am suspicious how sustainable it will be.  Pitchers adjust, and then it’s your turn to adjust.

So I fear the success is delicate and can disappear quickly and for long stretches while he figures out what mechanical change will work next.

Let me also be perfectly clear that I am super happy that he seemed to turn the corner and I would be absolutely delighted if they keep him and he just takes here for years.

I am simply sharing a concern I have.  He just seems so robotic in his approach and that makes me a little nervous if I have to hope he stays perfectly calibrated and isn’t going to constantly be one step behind the adjustments that pitchers will make on him.

Edited December 29, 2022 by Dtwncbad

[Angelsfan1984]

34 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

I am a lot more sure of Pablo Lopez natural ability than I am of Taylor Ward’s natural ability.

There is a damn good chance this is the highest trade value Ward will ever have.

One of my concerns with him is admittedly not very scientific.  But I can’t help “see it.”

I don’t think he is really a gifted natural hitter.  He seems overly mechanical, a designed swing if you will, and applying those mechanics and swing design to their maximum benefit.  That makes him a hard worker, etc., but it doesn’t convince me of long term success.

But if there is any truth to this assessment, then I am suspicious how sustainable it will be.  Pitchers adjust, and then it’s your turn to adjust.

So I fear the success is delicate and can disappear quickly and for long stretches while he figures out what mechanical change will work next.

Let me also be perfectly clear that I am super happy that he seemed to turn the corner and I would be absolutely delighted if they keep him and he just takes here for years.

I am simply sharing a concern I have.  He just seems so robotic in his approach and that makes me a little nervous if I have to hope he stays perfectly calibrated and isn’t going to constantly be one step behind the adjustments that pitchers will make on him.

I agree. He looks robotic. As far as him being an outfielder…I just don’t see it. He can play outfield but that seems like it’s out of necessity rather than an ideal fit. 

[BTH]

1 hour ago, Second Base said:

I think one name I would strongly consider acquiring is Merrill Kelly. He's built a decent floor as an inning eating back end starter at 8 million per year, and his ceiling, as we saw last year is a very good mid rotation starter. 

 

Arizona’s not trading him.

They’re trying to contend in 2023.

[Hubs]

14 hours ago, Angels 1961 said:

Just use a 5-man rotation like all other teams.

I sometimes wonder if you even watch the team.

 

[tdawg87]

1 minute ago, Hubs said:

I sometimes wonder if you even watch the team.

 

I don't even know what he is. 

[Hubs]

1 hour ago, Dtwncbad said:

I am a lot more sure of Pablo Lopez natural ability than I am of Taylor Ward’s natural ability.

There is a damn good chance this is the highest trade value Ward will ever have.

One of my concerns with him is admittedly not very scientific.  But I can’t help “see it.”

I don’t think he is really a gifted natural hitter.  He seems overly mechanical, a designed swing if you will, and applying those mechanics and swing design to their maximum benefit.  That makes him a hard worker, etc., but it doesn’t convince me of long term success.

But if there is any truth to this assessment, then I am suspicious how sustainable it will be.  Pitchers adjust, and then it’s your turn to adjust.

So I fear the success is delicate and can disappear quickly and for long stretches while he figures out what mechanical change will work next.

Let me also be perfectly clear that I am super happy that he seemed to turn the corner and I would be absolutely delighted if they keep him and he just takes here for years.

I am simply sharing a concern I have.  He just seems so robotic in his approach and that makes me a little nervous if I have to hope he stays perfectly calibrated and isn’t going to constantly be one step behind the adjustments that pitchers will make on him.

Couldn't disagree more. He was a great hitter in college, but with a long swing.

Fixed it in the minors once he stopped catching.

His numbers in his good months are practically identical to his AA and AAA numbers. 

He got hurt midseason, and yes it messed up his swing, but he also got back to it, killing the ball from August 15th or so on.

 

[Hubs]

4 hours ago, Angel Oracle said:

I might even move Sandoval into that top of the rotation getting 30-32 starts.

He pitched nearly 150 innings in 2022, and could reach 180 innings in 2023.

If they get 90+ starts out of those three, they'll be fine. 96 and they're doing great.

Last year they had 85. 

[Hubs]

6 hours ago, Warfarin said:

If health permits, then yeah - that's not a bad plan.  Also take into consideration that we will (hopefully?) see growth out of Silseth and Bush, as well as (eventual) health out of Canning (I'm not going to assume anything for CRod right now), then it increases the possibility that those guys can become factors, especially by the second half of the season.

That said, I think the biggest issue is what you said - health.  If, say, two of our SPs go down (let's just say Sandoval and Suarez), then we are facing a rotation of Ohtani, Anderson, Detmers, and .. Silseth?  Barria?  Then who gets the 6th spot start?  And so on.

I like the promise of the guys we have, and I think our farm system might actually pump out a few solid SP options very soon - the key thing is we just need to bridge the gap to them.

That's all teams though. Yankees lose Rodon and Montas say and they'd have to add Schmidt and Garcia. Astros lose Valdez and McCullers and they have Whitley and Brown in the rotation.

And we're just used to it since we really haven't had a season of healthy and effective starting pitching for at least the last 7 years (2016-2022)

But as I posted yesterday, from 2002 to 2015 they did have a lot of healthy starting pitching.  A lot of guys managed 32-34 starts every year. Health is always the key.

[angelsnationtalk]

2 hours ago, Pancake Bear said:

Our outfield depth is already lousy. Trading our second best outfielder and one of our best bats seems shortsighted when I don't feel like the rotation is an urgent need. There also really isn't a great replacement in free agency at this point unless you move someone else for outfield help. It just feels a bit too convoluted at that point unless they really don't believe in Ward or other players they'd move in that hypothetical. 

I remember talking with @Jeff Fletcher a few years back about transactions and he mentioned that finding outfield corner depth is fairly easy to replace (within reason). 

Not sure if this applies here, but seems like it would. 

If I were to guess it would have to be Ward, Bush and another guy for Pablo Lopez.

[Lazorko Saves]

1 hour ago, Angels 1961 said:

add some flair to team

[Angels 1961]

14 minutes ago, Hubs said:

I sometimes wonder if you even watch the team.

 

Yeah, I've watched the 6th man in rotation they put out there. Most of those have been DFA and no other team picks them up. Every other team uses 5-man rotation. Pitchers like Kluber, Eovaldi among others want to pitch in 5 man something they have done their whole careers. Yeah I've watched this team lot longer than you have. After seven losing seasons get back to 5-man rotation. Have 8 in BP and with Ohtani have extra players on bench. Why even worry about another starter you have your 5.

[rafibomb]

Taylor Ward's BaseballSavant page is crazyyy

[tdawg87]

7 minutes ago, rafibomb said:

Taylor Ward's BaseballSavant page is crazyyy

Don't trade pls

[Second Base]

57 minutes ago, Hubs said:

Couldn't disagree more. He was a great hitter in college, but with a long swing.

Fixed it in the minors once he stopped catching.

His numbers in his good months are practically identical to his AA and AAA numbers. 

He got hurt midseason, and yes it messed up his swing, but he also got back to it, killing the ball from August 15th or so on.

 

Sorry to say, but that's revisionist history. Taylor Ward was NOT a great hitter in college. He played in a notoriously hitter friendly conference and hit .304 his junior year, which is solid, but among the college ranks, particularly those that get drafted...no, he was more average than anything. Good plate discipline though. Looked overmatched in the Cape, but his defense took a huge step forward so it wasn't as big of a deal. 

What made his offensive numbers stand out was the fact that he was an athletic catcher who was projected to be able to play at the next level. 

Great hitters in college... Those are guys like Andrew Vaughn, Spencer Torkelson, etc...

Once Taylor Ward moved off of catcher, and started working with people outside of the organization on tinkering his swing, his offense exploded. I LOVE the way he swings through the ball rather than to it, and drives pitches to the big part of the field. He sees the ball well and can square it up. But I won't pretend he's something that he's not. 

I think more than likely, you're looking at a .270/330 hitter with ok defense and around 20 HR's. And he should remain around that output for the next three or so years.  That's a GOOD player, a starting outfielder. But untradable? Hardly. 

If someone is offering a nice rotation starter with multiple years of control, you take that deal in a heartbeat. No one is offering that, but if they did, you would have to. take it.