Official 2022-23 Offseason Hot Stove Thread

[Dtwncbad]

1 hour ago, Warfarin said:

It seems that they don't really trust him to go through the lineup a third time and pitch effectively.

But that’s not something unique to managing him.  That’s more or less the overall contemporary philosophy in managing all starting pitchers.

[Angel Oracle]

13 hours ago, Chuckster70 said:

Can someone tell me what the fascination with Miguel Rojas is? 

Saw this on Twitter and I almost spit out my 10-year Whistle Pig.

WTF?

Yep, essentially giving up Rengifo, Neto, Quero, and Bush for only TWO years of López.

Plus, it caused you to spit out $100+ whiskey.   That should get the person posting that on Twitter 24 straight hours of watching Roseanne sing the anthem.

[Angel Oracle]

12 hours ago, Second Base said:

I still think I'd be shopping a Suarez-Rengifo package to see what kind of starting pitcher options that can get me, then use whatever money left over before the luxury tax on the bullpen. 

Depending on the return, I bet the Angels could creep up toward 90 wins and a playoff spot. In my opinion, right now they're like an 85 win team. Minasian has been aggressive and off your not going to sell off assets then I like it, I just think his work it's unfinished. 

It's incomplete. 

Preferably acquiring a RH starter of course

[Angel Oracle]

10 hours ago, Hubs said:

It’s not my idea, they said they were doing this once they signed Anderson. 
 

They have 22 days off in 2023, including five for the All Star Break. 
 

Best guess is If they start Ohtani and Anderson in the 1-2 spots and keep them on five days rest… they will first need a 6th starter on April 16th in Boston and then two more turns. 4-23 home to KC and 4-29 at Milwaukee.maybe 5-7 home to Texas and three more times in May and three total times in June. Once in July, maybe 2x and then three times in August and three times in September.

That’s 15-16 starts. Leaving 146 for the other five guys. 30- 32 starts for Ohtani, 30-32 for Anderson, Say 28-30 For Sandoval and Detmers… that leaves just 22-30 for Suarez.

Now I know it’s not going exactly to plan and I know that health is a variable you can’t plan for but I’m fine with Canning, Rodriguez, Silseth, Bush, and Barria getting the 6th spots if it’s 15-20 or so. 

I might even move Sandoval into that top of the rotation getting 30-32 starts.

He pitched nearly 150 innings in 2022, and could reach 180 innings in 2023.

[Dtwncbad]

3 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

Yep, essentially giving up Rengifo, Neto, Quero, and Bush for only TWO years of López

I am not all that worried about giving up that group of names outside of Neto.  And you have to have at least one main piece that you give up.

Further, you don’t know for sure if it’s two years for Lopez.  Lots of teams trade for a player they view to be a long term fit and sign them to extensions.

I am not endorsing this particular package as the right price for Lopez.

I am only saying you have to give up value to get value, and it always seems like Angel fans decry whatever price is necessary to actually make a deal.

[Dtwncbad]

Just now, Angel Oracle said:

I might even move Sandoval into that top of the rotation getting 30-32 starts.

He pitched nearly 150 innings in 2022, and could reach 180 innings in 2023.

Sandoval can be an absolute monster if things go right.  He has the talent.  He is on the cusp of being elite.

[Angel Oracle]

2 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

I am not all that worried about giving up that group of names outside of Neto.  And you have to have at least one main piece that you give up.

Further, you don’t know for sure if it’s two years for Lopez.  Lots of teams trade for a player they view to be a long term fit and sign them to extensions.

I am not endorsing this particular package as the right price for Lopez.

I am only saying you have to give up value to get value, and it always seems like Angel fans decry whatever price is necessary to actually make a deal.

I get that, and they need a righty like López for rotation balance.   It’s just way too much to give up, and not knowing if López can be re-signed.

[tdawg87]

I mean that package is likely what it would cost. That's the problem with making trades, to Jeff Fletcher's point earlier.

We think it's too much, and it is, and I'd literally throw something if they did that, but acquiring talent costs talent. We always do trade scenarios from a biased position in which we give up players we'd be fine with losing. Unfortunately those aren't the players other GM's want. They want the guys we don't want to lose. Goes without saying.

But no, do not do that trade. We aren't in any position to do that.

[Dtwncbad]

46 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

But no, do not do that trade. We aren't in any position to do that.

Well we have no idea what the Marlins would really want.  That’s why I resisted Strad’s question about what I would give up.  It’s just speculation.

But I would disagree that the Angels are not in a position to make an aggressive trade.

The Angels have clearly decided to be competitive over the next couple of years.  To me, they are in a position to be a little aggressive for a player they really want (whether that is Lopez or not is a different discussion).

Looking at it another way, if a trade like that “empties the farm” then the farm wasn’t good enough to provide a winning roster in a couple of years anyway.

Obviously, they have to keep building the farm as best they can, but you can’t be afraid of using prospects to acquire impact players (especially players in their prime rather than 34 year olds with expiring contracts) when you are in a win window now.

It’s totally different if the team wasn’t even trying to win now and instead was just hoarding talent to get themselves into a winning window.

So I think they actually are in a position to make a deal.

Edited December 29, 2022 by Dtwncbad

[Warfarin]

45 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

I mean that package is likely what it would cost. That's the problem with making trades, to Jeff Fletcher's point earlier.

We think it's too much, and it is, and I'd literally throw something if they did that, but acquiring talent costs talent. We always do trade scenarios from a biased position in which we give up players we'd be fine with losing. Unfortunately those aren't the players other GM's want. They want the guys we don't want to lose. Goes without saying.

But no, do not do that trade. We aren't in any position to do that.

I think this is the key thing that most gloss over.

Currently, we are not a particularly talent-rich organization.  There are a number of organizations with better prospects than us.  We have some promising prospects, but outside of Neto and O’Hoppe, they are not top 100 prospects, which is what someone like Lopez (and others like him) would require.

Moreover, teams need to be fairly compelled to make a trade.  The Marlins don’t have any urgency to trade Lopez.  They can hang onto him and trade him later if they are so inclined.  So we either need to meet their trade needs, which appears to be legit hitters, or drastically overpay in prospects.  If we had a very rich prospect pipeline, we could afford to do that, but we do not.

[ukyah]

it's not about angel fans over valuing our own prospects. it's just a bad trade.

to get a SP for two guaranteed years and a who gives a shit SS, you'd be giving up a good SP prospect, your future starting SS, your future starting C, your current 2b/ss and your former #1 prospect. adell is the easiest one to give up in that whole package at this point.

you can't give up that much starting future talent for two years of one pitcher. it's not about over valuing, it's just bad management.

[Second Base]

1 hour ago, Angel Oracle said:

Preferably acquiring a RH starter of course

Yes, now it becomes a question of who that package could potentially land. 

[Make Angels Great Again]

This probably means they would be eyeing Ward...

 

Would any of you do Ward for Lopez or Luzardo? I'd be nervous due to our lack of OF depth and the potential for Ward to break into a perennial 900+ OPS guy.

 

[Pancake Bear]

2 minutes ago, Make Angels Great Again said:

This probably means they would be eyeing Ward...

 

Would any of you do Ward for Lopez or Luzardo? I'd be nervous due to our lack of OF depth and the potential for Ward to break into a perennial 900+ OPS guy.

 

Our outfield depth is already lousy. Trading our second best outfielder and one of our best bats seems shortsighted when I don't feel like the rotation is an urgent need. There also really isn't a great replacement in free agency at this point unless you move someone else for outfield help. It just feels a bit too convoluted at that point unless they really don't believe in Ward or other players they'd move in that hypothetical. 

[Warfarin]

10 minutes ago, Make Angels Great Again said:

This probably means they would be eyeing Ward...

 

Would any of you do Ward for Lopez or Luzardo? I'd be nervous due to our lack of OF depth and the potential for Ward to break into a perennial 900+ OPS guy.

 

No.  Ward is very much necessary to this offense.  If I felt his season was a fluke, then sure, I’d be inclined to trade him at peak value and see what I could get.  However, a lot of his metrics indicate that he is a very good hitter and that last year was no fluke.  I think he is a 3-4 fWAR player moving forward, maybe even slightly better if things really click.

If we had a really good prospect in AAA, then maybe I’d consider, but we don’t.  Our OF depth is atrocious.  We need him on this team in order to legitimately compete, far more than we need Lopez.

[Second Base]

Of course you trade Taylor Ward if it lands you Jesus Luzardo or Pablo Lopez. You'd have to be crazy not to. 

The problem is, you're not going to get either of them one for one with Taylor Ward. You likely don't want to pay the price that would be required for those guys. 

Plus you have to consider the effect on the offense losing Ward has. Maybe it's minimized by moving an infielder to the outfield, maybe not. 

Edited December 29, 2022 by Second Base

[Second Base]

The Marlins likely want prospects, not players for their top pitchers, and those prospects need to be near MLB ready. You probably don't get Pablo Lopez without including a name like Logan O'Hoppe or Zach Neto as part of a larger package. 

[Warfarin]

2 minutes ago, Second Base said:

Of course you trade Taylor Ward if it lands you Jesus Luzardo or Pablo Lopez. You'd have to be an idiot not to. 

The problem is, you're not going to get either of them one for one with Taylor Ward. You likely don't want to pay the price that would be required for those guys. 

I’m not sure I agree with this.

I guess it depends on if you view last year as a fluke for Ward.  I don’t think it was, and I think he is a 3-4 fWAR player moving forward.

4 years of control, at a position that we have no depth, is rather valuable for this team.  López could be a 3-4 fWAR pitcher perhaps, but with 2 years of control.  

Personally, considering this team’s needs, I do not make that trade.  Maybe I am an idiot, though.

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

23 hours ago, Angels 1961 said:

Still have chance at Michael's Wacha and Fulmer and the Zack's, Greinke and Zack Britton.

Johnny Cueto?

[Second Base]

4 minutes ago, Warfarin said:

I’m not sure I agree with this.

I guess it depends on if you view last year as a fluke for Ward.  I don’t think it was, and I think he is a 3-4 fWAR player moving forward.

4 years of control, at a position that we have no depth, is rather valuable for this team.  López could be a 3-4 fWAR pitcher perhaps, but with 2 years of control.  

Personally, considering this team’s needs, I do not make that trade.  Maybe I am an idiot, though.

I rephrased it because idiot was too harsh, I'm sorry about that. Crazy, yes, but not an idiot. 

Ward's season numbers are inflated by the ridiculously hot start he had, and then by a September spent murdering lesser pitchers when it didn't matter. 

During the months it matters most, June, July and August, he posted an OBP under .300 and was a black hole in a lineup filled with black holes. 

[Warfarin]

4 minutes ago, Second Base said:

I rephrased it because idiot was too harsh, I'm sorry about that. Crazy, yes, but not an idiot. 

Ward's season numbers are inflated by the ridiculously hot start he had, and then by a September spent murdering lesser pitchers when it didn't matter. 

During the months it matters most, June, July and August, he posted an OBP under .300 and was a black hole in a lineup filled with black holes. 

An argument can be made that he was struggling through his injury at this time.  I do not know that for sure, but it’s rather possible that this is what happened.

My guess is that what we saw in September is more of the hitter that he is.  I think he could be an 850-900 OPS hitter moving forward, with very solid plate discipline and pitch recognition.  Maybe even a bit better than this if things click.

We’ll see, though.

 

[Second Base]

1 minute ago, Warfarin said:

An argument can be made that he was struggling through his injury at this time.  I do not know that for sure, but it’s rather possible that this is what happened.

My guess is that what we saw in September is more of the hitter that he is.  I think he could be an 850-900 OPS hitter moving forward, with very solid plate discipline and pitch recognition.  Maybe even a bit better than this if things click.

We’ll see, though.

 

Pretty similar argument as Jared Walsh. I think it's pretty clear the league adjusted, but many here still cling to their perceived value. I understand it. 

[Second Base]

I think one name I would strongly consider acquiring is Merrill Kelly. He's built a decent floor as an inning eating back end starter at 8 million per year, and his ceiling, as we saw last year is a very good mid rotation starter. 

 

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

17 hours ago, Warfarin said:

For the purposes of this team, Drury.  Segura is solid, but he's mainly just a 2B now who can fill in at SS sometimes.  I think we need more overall infield coverage, which Drury can provide in that he can effectively cover 2B, 3B, 1B.

Why is SS more demanding than 2B? they both have as much ground to cover with the end of the shift. With a runner being held on 1B there's even more ground to cover. just wondering

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

15 hours ago, Warfarin said:

This is precisely why I think we should largely avoid any kind of significant trades.  Our farm system, while improving, is still rather mediocre.

If you can call being ranked 30 out of 30 mediocre?