Official 2022-23 Offseason Hot Stove Thread

[Stradling]

What teams have SS prospects ready to graduate and have a SS at the big league level that is expendable?

[Angel Oracle]

10 hours ago, Trendon said:

Probably from people who don’t understand the concept of roster building.

They think “the Cubs signed a SS, therefore they will trade the incumbent SS.”

When in reality, the Cubs aren’t spending $177M to then trade away one of their best position players.

Especially since Hoerner was a GG finalist at 2B before moving to SS

[DMVol]

32 minutes ago, Stradling said:

What teams have SS prospects ready to graduate and have a SS at the big league level that is expendable?

Yankees….which is why I have thought Kiner-Falefa makes the most sense for us…not a long term commitment, not overly expensive….not an exciting move but makes sense, at least to me…

[Angels 1961]

14 minutes ago, DMVol said:

Yankees….which is why I have thought Kiner-Falefa makes the most sense for us…not a long term commitment, not overly expensive….not an exciting move but makes sense, at least to me…

He would be a good addition

 

15 minutes ago, DMVol said:

Yankees….which is why I have thought Kiner-Falefa makes the most sense for us…not a long term commitment, not overly expensive….not an exciting move but makes sense, at least to me…

 

[Second Base]

1 hour ago, Chuckster70 said:

Yeah I was told the Angels checked in on Hoerner and Rodgers a few weeks back. It appears the asking price was high for both so they moved on. 

I heard the same about Rodgers, but not Hoerner. The Rockies still view Rodgers as a breakout candidate, so the asking price is basically the equivalent of acquiring an elite prospect. 

Unless anything changed, the Angels have neither the interest or goods to pull it off.

Edited December 18, 2022 by Second Base

[mmc]

 

[Inside Pitch]

3 hours ago, Warfarin said:

"Checked in on" is enough to make imaginations run wild  

Offseason, and a message board..... Only natural people run with it. People going apeshit with their ideas is to be expected, not faulting anyone its just still funny to see how far people can take their scenarios.

[Inside Pitch]

2 hours ago, Chuckster70 said:

Yeah I was told the Angels checked in on Hoerner and Rodgers a few weeks back. It appears the asking price was high for both so they moved on. 

Right, it was an innocuous FYI.  I mean Perry said that there were SS worth look into that weren't being talked about too.  Basically, the Angels are looking for an improvement at SS.

[Warfarin]

7 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

Offseason, and a message board..... Only natural people run with it. People going apeshit with their ideas is to be expected, not faulting anyone its just still funny to see how far people can take their scenarios.

Yeah.  I mean, I get it - I think people get bored, as there is no baseball of any kind to watch or pay attention to (MLB, minors).  So sometimes, it is fun to create / imagine trades that can improve the team, even if very unrealistic.

[Warfarin]

While I know Elvis Andrus gets a lot of negative attention, I don't think he'd be the worst addition.  Even if he reverts back to being mainly a 1.5-2.0 fWAR player, he's certainly a depth upgrade and pushes Velazquez further down the totem poll.

The question from the Angels' perspective would be, can Fletcher effectively match what Andrus does? If so, then maybe there's no need to get Andrus. Also, if they feel Fletcher can do that, then do they think Soto is a viable MLB SS, such that if Fletcher gets hurt and/or is ineffective, can he take over and play SS instead?

[Inside Pitch]

2 hours ago, Warfarin said:

 

3 of those 4 teams, I would imagine, are okay with their new SSs (Dodgers, Braves, Red Sox).  Twins are the team that I imagine would be interested in upgrading SS.  I think the SS market, in terms of trades, shouldn't be terribly competitive, so if we are so inclined to trade for one, I think decent opportunities could be available.

When Royce Lewis gets healthy the Twins are in a good place.  They also have Brooks Lee who like Neto made it to AA last season.  Can't see them prioritizing adding a SS.

[Inside Pitch]

1 hour ago, Second Base said:

I heard the same about Rodgers, but not Hoerner. The Rockies still view Rodgers as a breakout candidate, so the asking price is basically the equivalent of acquiring an elite prospect. 

Unless anything changed, the Angels have neither the interest or goods to pull it off.

There is also no telling what the Rockies might do.  They are the most nonsensical front office in MLB.

[Angel Oracle]

5 minutes ago, Warfarin said:

While I know Elvis Andrus gets a lot of negative attention, I don't think he'd be the worst addition.  Even if he reverts back to being mainly a 1.5-2.0 fWAR player, he's certainly a depth upgrade and pushes Velazquez further down the totem poll.

The question from the Angels' perspective would be, can Fletcher effectively match what Andrus does? If so, then maybe there's no need to get Andrus. Also, if they feel Fletcher can do that, then do they think Soto is a viable MLB SS, such that if Fletcher gets hurt and/or is ineffective, can he take over and play SS instead?

With Andrus, it does likely come down to how much he wants for 2023 and if he’s looking for at least 2 years.

The 3.9 WAR in 2022 might put him out of the Halos price range in 2023, if they are seeking to stay under the tax threshold for one more season.   Remember that they still need a solid 4th OF, a set up man, and possibly a RHP for 6th starter.

Edited December 18, 2022 by Angel Oracle

[Warfarin]

21 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

With Andrus, it does likely come down to how much he wants for 2023 and if he’s looking for at least 2 years.

The 3.9 WAR in 2022 might put him out of the Halos price range in 2023, if they are seeking to stay under the tax threshold for one more season.   Remember that they still need a solid 4th OF, a set up man, and possibly a RHP for 6th starter.

I'd say if he wants a 2 year deal, then pass.  But if he can be had for a 1/10-12 type deal, I think that's reasonably fair.  I don't think most teams would project for him to generate 3.9 fWAR moving forward.  Most FOs are pretty good about projecting future value, as opposed to rewarding for past value, when it comes to FAs like Andrus.

As for the rest of the needs - I think they can probably fill the 4th OF + RP through minor league type deals.  I get the sense they aren't pursing a 4th OF and will roll with what they have, even though I'd rather get a better option.

I think we'll see them invest in Lugo or someone else like him to fill out the last SP spot.  I agree they will likely aim for 15mil or less to spend, giving about 5mil or so of trade deadline wiggle room as needed.

[BTH]

36 minutes ago, Warfarin said:

While I know Elvis Andrus gets a lot of negative attention, I don't think he'd be the worst addition.  Even if he reverts back to being mainly a 1.5-2.0 fWAR player, he's certainly a depth upgrade and pushes Velazquez further down the totem poll.

My concern is if Andrus reverts back to the -0.3 fWAR player he was in 2020 or if his defense declines.

If his defense declines, then he’s be a negative WAR player if his offense reverts back to 2018-2021 levels.

[Warfarin]

5 minutes ago, Trendon said:

My concern is if Andrus reverts back to the -0.3 fWAR player he was in 2020 or if his defense declines.

If his defense declines, then he’s be a negative WAR player if his offense reverts back to 2018-2021 levels.

The beauty of a one year contract is if he doesn't pan out, they can release him and move forward.  They released Upton and the 28mil he was due last year.  They can assuredly release Andrus if it turns out he's a pumpkin now.  I don't think that's the case, and I do think 2020 was an odd year for many players in general, so I'm willing to overlook that one year.

[BTH]

1 minute ago, Warfarin said:

The beauty of a one year contract is if he doesn't pan out, they can release him and move forward.  They released Upton and the 28mil he was due last year.  They can assuredly release Andrus if it turns out he's a pumpkin now.  I don't think that's the case, and I do think 2020 was an odd year for many players in general, so I'm willing to overlook that one year.

I guess I’d like to aim higher than “if this guy sucks, he can be released” for SS.

2020 may be a blip, but he is gonna be 34 and already had a ton of mileage under him— so I’d still be wary of decline.

[Stradling]

2 minutes ago, Trendon said:

I guess I’d like to aim higher than “if this guy sucks, he can be released” for SS.

2020 may be a blip, but he is gonna be 34 and already had a ton of mileage under him— so I’d still be wary of decline.

Then look at the in house alternative and you’ll feel better about acquiring Andrus. 

[Angel Oracle]

2 minutes ago, Trendon said:

I guess I’d like to aim higher than “if this guy sucks, he can be released” for SS.

2020 may be a blip, but he is gonna be 34 and already had a ton of mileage under him— so I’d still be wary of decline.

True, although a one year gamble is better than a two year gamble for a 34 year-old with a lot of mileage.

[Warfarin]

4 minutes ago, Trendon said:

I guess I’d like to aim higher than “if this guy sucks, he can be released” for SS.

2020 may be a blip, but he is gonna be 34 and already had a ton of mileage under him— so I’d still be wary of decline.

I agree. I would still pursue the trade market first, but I think Andrus would be better than just sticking with the status quo probably.  But as I mentioned upthread, if the FO feels that Fletcher can effectively match Andrus in terms of value, and if they likewise feel Soto is a solid backup plan in case he can't, then I'm okay with rolling with what they have.  

I read an article that Fletcher is working this offseason to improve his overall strength.  Whether that leads to any tangible improvement in offensive abilities, such that he can hit for just a touch more power that helps raise his SLG a bit, then I wouldn't mind seeing what he can do.  If he can even be, say, a league average SS, and generate around 1.5-2.0 fWAR while manning SS, that's not a bad outcome.  But if this is the case, I would expect to see them spend money on other parts of the team and upgrade those parts, such that we can be able to better endure the possibility that SS is a positional weakness for us.

[BTH]

Just now, Stradling said:

Then look at the in house alternative and you’ll feel better about acquiring Andrus. 

I’d take him so that it pushes guys like Soto and Velazquez down the depth chart over not signing him, but I’d want to first try and get someone whose downside isn’t “you can just release him.”

[BTH]

1 minute ago, Angel Oracle said:

True, although a one year gamble is better than a two year gamble for a 34 year-old with a lot of mileage.

Yeah, there’s no way I’d give Andrus two years. One year max.

[BTH]

1 minute ago, Warfarin said:

I agree. I would still pursue the trade market first, but I think Andrus would be better than just sticking with the status quo probably.  But as I mentioned upthread, if the FO feels that Fletcher can effectively match Andrus in terms of value, and if they likewise feel Soto is a solid backup plan in case he can't, then I'm okay with rolling with what they have.

Yeah, I’d easily take Andrus over status quo.

I’d just prioritize other options (such as Wendle, Segura, maybe IKF) first.

[Warfarin]

4 minutes ago, Trendon said:

I’d take him so that it pushes guys like Soto and Velazquez down the depth chart over not signing him, but I’d want to first try and get someone whose downside isn’t “you can just release him.”

Sure, but the downside of pulling off a trade for a player is those young players could have helped your team in the future, and they in turn develop to be much better than expected, and so on.

Every move does have a downside to it.  The upside of signing Andrus is you don't lose any talent from your system and you can pivot if he doesn't pan out.  I would say signing him would be help buffer against downside.  Maybe he pans out and you have a solid one year bridge (perhaps the most likely outcome).  If he doesn't, then maybe Fletcher has shown improvement and he can take over.  If he doesn't, then maybe Soto looks like he has emerged and can be an option.  Basically - you give another layer of depth and increase the odds of something panning out in your favor.

Of course, my preference is to shoot big and acquire a very good SS.  But I suspect that is not an option on the table, and we are instead in a position where we are hoping that one of our internal options (Fletcher, Soto, or Neto by 2024) can emerge and be a viable SS.  

[BTH]

5 minutes ago, Warfarin said:

I read an article that Fletcher is working this offseason to improve his overall strength.  Whether that leads to any tangible improvement in offensive abilities, such that he can hit for just a touch more power that helps raise his SLG a bit, then I wouldn't mind seeing what he can do.  If he can even be, say, a league average SS, and generate around 1.5-2.0 fWAR while manning SS, that's not a bad outcome.  But if this is the case, I would expect to see them spend money on other parts of the team and upgrade those parts, such that we can be able to better endure the possibility that SS is a positional weakness for us.

Perry had first talked about Nevin meeting with Fletcher and Fletcher making some changes during the Winter Meetings. Then Nevin was asked about that meeting and Fletcher’s plans the next day in his press conference that was streamed on MLB.com.

But I was disappointed that no reporter asked about whether any of Fletcher’s changes were related to his approach and plate discipline, because that’s the biggest change he can make that’d improve him as a player.

Edited December 18, 2022 by Trendon