Jo Adell's outlook

[tdawg87]

6 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Maybe people are more frustrated than they should be

Bingo.

[Angelsjunky]

1 minute ago, tdawg87 said:

Bingo.

What is the proper degree of frustration that you feel is valid? Any frustration? 

[tdawg87]

3 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

What is the proper degree of frustration that you feel is valid? Any frustration? 

Frustration is fine. 

[Inside Pitch]

1 hour ago, Angelsjunky said:

I just think you're overly maligning people being frustrated with Adell, as if such frustration is inherently because people had unreasonable expectations or looked at the wrong numbers, etc.

Not sure unreasonable is the exact word I'd use.  Maybe something more like excessively positive. You may not like me saying it but that's exactly how I view it.  What exactly is it you're upset about if not the reality that he hasn't lived up to your expectations?  Does he not smile enough for you?  

Many here have a tendency to talk up prospect rankings. Everyone here seems to get excited when MLB.com and the sort start hyping a guy up.  I've always argued that those rankings are noise even when they are complimentary of the system and always argue that people should be wary of the hype. I also tend to warn against getting too caught up on counting rates and raw data.  I've been on the ERA is overrated crusade since the Angels traded for and re-signed Jim Abbott. Say what you will but I'm consistent whether the Angels system is good or bad and maybe more importantly I have spent a lot of time trying to learn how to properly apply statistical information to avoid creating those false expectations for myself.  If using stats at the MLB level is dicey, it's much more so in the minors.

So yes, I believe that many were putting too much faith in raw triple slash numbers and have said so along the way.  I have said repeatedly that he wasn't ready.  To be honest, I probably would have been better served had I said I didn't believe he was ready to succeed, because I honestly don't know if he was going to get any better in AAA.  After actually watching him play regularly do you believe he's ready? Does that mean I'm just a negative Nancy?  

It's not like I haven't been excited about the kid, I was talking him up even before we drafted him.  Besides the obvious tools, I was super high on his make up, particularly the grey matter -- he's a legitimately intelligent person and those guys tend to take well to coaching, but those predictive numbers always loomed large....  those realities always helped my temper MY expectations.

So yeah, I believe people looked at the wrong data, absorbed too much of the hype.  People were wrong.  It happens.  If Marsh doesn't revert to what he was like in the minors I'll have ended up being completely wrong about him.  You'll be able to argue that predictive data, park effects and weighted stats aren't infallible, but I feel a lot better about those sets of numbers than I do traditional measures.

I'm going to say it again for what feels like the 100th time..  Jo Adell is still the same exact guy he was when he was ranked the number 2 prospect in the game.  Still has all the same qualities -- to be honest, that's the problem.  The tools may have improved in some areas but the skills are relatively the same.

The big question is how the hell do they handle this moving forward.  I haven't a clue how they actually fix this other than throwing him out there and having him work on those flaws. Should that be happening at the MLB level? If he's up because they believe this is the best place for him to do that -- fine??  I dunno. 

All I know is, the only thing that I find remotely frustrating is that they were so stupid as to bring him up in 2020 when his game was so very very flawed.

 

[Inside Pitch]

1 hour ago, Angelsjunky said:

Yes, and we agree that is premature. But where I think the basic stats have meaning is as a barometer of improvements for which there are no direct statistics - say, looking at his BB and K rates. So we can hope to see some sign of improvement there, though we haven't. I'm also a bit baffled by how few HR he's hitting - HR as a percentage of total hits...its way down from the minors. He doesn't seem to be even making good contact when he does make contact.

The data you want to look at when it comes to projecting power and a guy tapping into his pitch selection skills is Pull rate on FBs.  There is no greater predictor of future success for hitters than that.  It's not revolutionary, it's just the old line of being able to turn on a FB.  This is one area where Marsh took a massive step forward the previous two years and then massively regressed this season -- thus my actual frustration with him..   

BB rates can be a false read in the minors because it's more dependent on pitching than it is at the MLB level.  So unless a guy is doing something super crazy like a walk rate over 15% it can lead to false reads.  % of non intentional BBs helps weed some of that out as does % of swinging strikes in the zone.  Again, pointing to Marsh.  He was really good at swinging only at strikes, but the contact issues were evident, he missed a lot of those.

[Inside Pitch]

1 hour ago, Angelsjunky said:

I read somewhere that the Angels reworked his swing to hit for more power. If so, dumb, dumb move

Wait -- is this a recent thing?   Because if it is -- then the best thing for Jo Adell is to go to an organization that will actually get the most out of him.  It's not going to happen here.

[Inside Pitch]

1 hour ago, Angelsjunky said:

What is the proper degree of frustration that you feel is valid? Any frustration? 

FTR..  faulting people for being frustrated isn't something I want to be a part of.  But, I do believe people had crazy expectations and set themselves up to be disappointed.

Again, I was super frustrated watching Marsh.   On the flip slide, I was really happy to see Sandoval say he's not happy with his season and that his ERA being what it is doesn't really impress him.  That sort of self awareness is great to see.  The part of me that is hopeful wants to believe that this is a result of the data they are giving them.  

Man, I really hope that Adell swing change bit is not a recent thing.   Talk about frustration.

[Tank]

On 8/18/2022 at 1:10 PM, m0nkey said:

What is an elite athleticism and where can I get one?

The next time you come over to my house to play H-O-R-S-E, I’ll show you.

[Tank]

1 hour ago, Inside Pitch said:

FTR..  faulting people for being frustrated isn't something I want to be a part of.  But, I do believe people had crazy expectations and set themselves up to be disappointed.

Again, I was super frustrated watching Marsh.   On the flip slide, I was really happy to see Sandoval say he's not happy with his season and that his ERA being what it is doesn't really impress him.  That sort of self awareness is great to see.  The part of me that is hopeful wants to believe that this is a result of the data they are giving them.  

One of the things that’s frustrating to me about Adell is that the people who rank minor league prospects had him rated incredibly high, like in the top 5 or 10. It sounded like he was going to be a very successful major leaguer by their experienced analysis.

What I don’t remember about Adell is seeing him put up insane numbers in the minors. That might be my faulty memory, but it’s not like he was blasting 40 homers or hitting .360. 
 

What were they seeing that made them rank Adell so high? 

[Inside Pitch]

29 minutes ago, Tank said:

One of the things that’s frustrating to me about Adell is that the people who rank minor league prospects had him rated incredibly high, like in the top 5 or 10. It sounded like he was going to be a very successful major leaguer by their experienced analysis.

What I don’t remember about Adell is seeing him put up insane numbers in the minors. That might be my faulty memory, but it’s not like he was blasting 40 homers or hitting .360. 
 

What were they seeing that made them rank Adell so high? 

He didn't.  TBF, he was never in a league long enough to really pile up the counting stats.   The noise was about his tools -- and all you need to see to understand is those graphs I posted where he's running 98% stuff at the MLB level, now imagine how much he stood out against guys in A ball?   Most of the stuff you saw written about him was how he was a man among boys, how he stood out from others physically.   What you didn't see a lot of was talk about his actual baseball skills.

Not sure if you remember my old rants about Nathan Haynes -- very different types of players, Haynes was very much a speed fast twitch guy..   He practiced like the second coming of Rickey Henderson, same actions, movements and explosiveness, but no ability to actually play baseball at the highest level.  Adell is a lot better than Haynes ever was like a magnitude of 10 better -- much more complete tools wise, but like Haynes, he is a guy that people were so in awe of the tools they gloss over his failings between the lines.

[m0nkey]

56 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

He didn't.  TBF, he was never in a league long enough to really pile up the counting stats.   The noise was about his tools -- and all you need to see to understand is those graphs I posted where he's running 98% stuff at the MLB level, now imagine how much he stood out against guys in A ball?   Most of the stuff you saw written about him was how he was a man among boys, how he stood out from others physically.   What you didn't see a lot of was talk about his actual baseball skills.

Not sure if you remember my old rants about Nathan Haynes -- very different types of players, Haynes was very much a speed fast twitch guy..   He practiced like the second coming of Rickey Henderson, same actions, movements and explosiveness, but no ability to actually play baseball at the highest level.  Adell is a lot better than Haynes ever was like a magnitude of 10 better -- much more complete tools wise, but like Haynes, he is a guy that people were so in awe of the tools they gloss over his failings between the lines.

How does Jeremy Moore rank in the “former Angel minor league athletic black outfielders”?

[Inside Pitch]

1 hour ago, m0nkey said:

How does Jeremy Moore rank in the “former Angel minor league athletic black outfielders”?

LOL..

Poor guy, he got injured just as it looked he had secured a MLB job as the Angels 4th OFer. 

I liked him, he was always a bit older, and played in a bunch of hitter's parks but he had a really well rounded game, struck out a lot though.. 

I heard he's a coach in the Rangers system now.

[CaliAngel]

I'm not frustrated with Adell because of how he was ranked or how he should be performing based off some stupid scouts, I'm frustrated just by watching him play ball with the Angels and showing absolutely no improvement since 2020. It's obvious he has no fucking clue what he's doing out there and I'm frustrated that he is constantly backed up by people on this board for god knows why when it's obvious that he sucks.

But by all means, let's keep flushing at bats down the toilet for 2 more years until he's 25 because some ranking thing said he's "supposed" to be good.

People, this is not how an organization wins games.

Unreal.

[Tank]

12 hours ago, CaliAngel said:

I'm not frustrated with Adell because of how he was ranked or how he should be performing based off some stupid scouts, I'm frustrated just by watching him play ball with the Angels and showing absolutely no improvement since 2020. It's obvious he has no fucking clue what he's doing out there and I'm frustrated that he is constantly backed up by people on this board for god knows why when it's obvious that he sucks.

But by all means, let's keep flushing at bats down the toilet for 2 more years until he's 25 because some ranking thing said he's "supposed" to be good.

People, this is not how an organization wins games.

Unreal.

I understand better why you’re a former player.

[Angelsjunky]

18 hours ago, Inside Pitch said:

Wait -- is this a recent thing?   Because if it is -- then the best thing for Jo Adell is to go to an organization that will actually get the most out of him.  It's not going to happen here.

Just to clarify, I was talking about Marsh here - the swing change. Can't remember where i read it, Fangraphs maybe?

[Angelsjunky]

18 hours ago, Inside Pitch said:

 

I'm going to say it again for what feels like the 100th time..  Jo Adell is still the same exact guy he was when he was ranked the number 2 prospect in the game.  Still has all the same qualities -- to be honest, that's the problem.  The tools may have improved in some areas but the skills are relatively the same.

Yes, and this is why people are frustrated, imo - not because he wasn't insta-Trout, but because he's the same talented and raw player he was two years ago, with little to no signs of improvement.

And furthermore, frustration with the org: for not handling his development well. I mean, it's like they ignored who he was as a player, flaws and all, and just let him rise without any kind of coaching...seemingly, at least. 

18 hours ago, Inside Pitch said:

The big question is how the hell do they handle this moving forward.  I haven't a clue how they actually fix this other than throwing him out there and having him work on those flaws. Should that be happening at the MLB level? If he's up because they believe this is the best place for him to do that -- fine??  I dunno. 

All I know is, the only thing that I find remotely frustrating is that they were so stupid as to bring him up in 2020 when his game was so very very flawed.

 

Yeah, it is mystery - what to do with Adell. But to your last point, I'll add what I said above: Yes, the premature call-up in 2020, but coupled with a seeming utter lack in coaching along the way.

I think there's also reason to question his supposedly great make-up. It is one thing to be a nice kid and smile and nod at the right times, and quite another to seriously apply whatever coaching advice you're getting. I'm not sure Adell looks at himself in a way that is conducive to his own own improvement. But who knows.

[Stradling]

2 hours ago, Tank said:

I understand better why you’re a former player that would absolutely hit above .200 in the majors.

Fixed it for accuracy 

[AngelsLakersFan]

1 hour ago, Angelsjunky said:

Yes, and this is why people are frustrated, imo - not because he wasn't insta-Trout, but because he's the same talented and raw player he was two years ago, with little to no signs of improvement.

And furthermore, frustration with the org: for not handling his development well. I mean, it's like they ignored who he was as a player, flaws and all, and just let him rise without any kind of coaching...seemingly, at least. 

Yeah, it is mystery - what to do with Adell. But to your last point, I'll add what I said above: Yes, the premature call-up in 2020, but coupled with a seeming utter lack in coaching along the way.

I think there's also reason to question his supposedly great make-up. It is one thing to be a nice kid and smile and nod at the right times, and quite another to seriously apply whatever coaching advice you're getting. I'm not sure Adell looks at himself in a way that is conducive to his own own improvement. But who knows.

I always found it odd how Joe Maddon was working with him doing drills in the outfield every day after his first couple gaffs back in '20. Seemed like an odd project for a manager of an MLB player. 

[Tank]

8 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

Yeah, it is mystery - what to do with Adell. But to your last point, I'll add what I said above: Yes, the premature call-up in 2020, but coupled with a seeming utter lack in coaching along the way.

I think there's also reason to question his supposedly great make-up. It is one thing to be a nice kid and smile and nod at the right times, and quite another to seriously apply whatever coaching advice you're getting. I'm not sure Adell looks at himself in a way that is conducive to his own own improvement. But who knows.

What if Adell isn’t terribly coachable? Could that be an issue in all of this?

[Blarg]

What if he is too coachable and he is being fed the wrong advice?  

[Blarg]

Nevin left him in the entire game and he hit his first triple of the season today in the 8th inning.

Walsh struck out looking to end the scoring threat. 

[eligrba]

38 minutes ago, Blarg said:

Nevin left him in the entire game and he hit his first triple of the season today in the 8th inning.

Walsh struck out looking to end the scoring threat. 

Just shows how many inning ending weapons are in the Angels lineup. 

[Angel Oracle]

Get a real coaching staff in here this off-season, and then we can see what Adell and Moniak can both do with at least 100-110 games played.

[AngelsLakersFan]

1 hour ago, Blarg said:

Nevin left him in the entire game and he hit his first triple of the season today in the 8th inning.

Walsh struck out looking to end the scoring threat. 

He made a fundamentally very strong play in the outfield too.

‘I know this thread is talking about him not improving, but he honestly has in quite a few ways, it’s just been slow and he had a long way to go before he we could say he looked even passable out there.

[Inside Pitch]

On 8/20/2022 at 2:06 PM, Angelsjunky said:

Yes, and this is why people are frustrated, imo - not because he wasn't insta-Trout, but because he's the same talented and raw player he was two years ago, with little to no signs of improvement.

And furthermore, frustration with the org: for not handling his development well. I mean, it's like they ignored who he was as a player, flaws and all, and just let him rise without any kind of coaching...seemingly, at least. 

While this may be true of you it takes all of ten minutes to find a ton of posts from people asking why he was so hyped, what people ever saw in him and a ton of posts calling for him to get called up when he was putting up numbers in AAA.   Frustration with the org is more widespread but its fashionable to feel that way about the Angels front office and not just because of Adell.

On 8/20/2022 at 2:06 PM, Angelsjunky said:

I think there's also reason to question his supposedly great make-up. It is one thing to be a nice kid and smile and nod at the right times, and quite another to seriously apply whatever coaching advice you're getting. I'm not sure Adell looks at himself in a way that is conducive to his own own improvement. But who knows.

While I obviously have a lot of questions about his skills, I'm less concerned about his makeup.  By all accounts he works his ass off.  If anything I've openly wondered if the issue is he's too confident in his abilities.  Maybe that ends up being the end of him?  Maybe he needs someone to tell him he won't take that next step unless he stops trying to be or look the part of the superstar.  He's been doing a lot less matador/ole bullshit of late, so maybe its starting to happen.  Like you, I keep thinking "who knows?".