Jo Adell's outlook

[Blarg]

9 minutes ago, ThisismineScios said:

He has obviously shown signs of improving both in the field and at the plate the last few weeks. What I can’t figure out is why, after trading Marsh and having Moniak hurt, they are still not playing him every day. Duggar is playing over him. Duggar has 1 hit with the Angels so far. From an organizational standpoint, how does it benefit you to play Duggar over Adell right now? 

There is no advantage playing Booger.  

 

[ten ocho recon scout]

Last year (I think), Adell pimped a home run he hit (maybe a GS?). I made a comment on here that I wasn't a fan, that I think he needed to forget pimping anything until he actually arrives.

A few on here rolled their eyes at me for saying that.

Here we are a year later.

I, as an Angel fan, hope he turns it around. We need him to. 

But up to this point he's been a major disappointment. I get that he's young. And maybe we had too high of hopes for him. 

The fielding misplays aren't really excusable though.

And maybe I'm old, but.... if you struggle to hit baseballs and catch baseballs, you shouldn't be pimping anything at the major league level of baseball.

[Brandon]

Brandon Wood v.2

On a side note, we need that gif or video of Barbaro where it says, "Outlook...." and shows him in the tractor and says, ".....not good"

[CaliAngel]

4 hours ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

I, as an Angel fan, hope he turns it around. We need him to.

Definitely. I root for every Halo. I want them to succeed. But when what I see on the field day in day out is terrible fundamentals, it's time to question what exactly all these "scouts" saw in Adell. I certainly have not seen much to warrant how much folks seem to support him. 

4 hours ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

if you struggle to hit baseballs and catch baseballs, you shouldn't be pimping anything at the major league level of baseball.

100%

Hit .275 and show some kind of consistent clue in the outfield, then maybe you can start pimping. 

People keep saying give him "time" but nobody ever says how much "time" he should get. 200 games? 300 games? When is it enough? 

At some point there has to be a line in the sand that says he's not going to get it. I haven't seen anything consistently that shows he ever will. 

Dump Adell. Seriously. Maybe he figures it out somewhere else but he's not figuring it out with us. 

[Stradling]

45 minutes ago, CaliAngel said:

Definitely. I root for every Halo. I want them to succeed. But when what I see on the field day in day out is terrible fundamentals, it's time to question what exactly all these "scouts" saw in Adell. I certainly have not seen much to warrant how much folks seem to support him. 

100%

Hit .275 and show some kind of consistent clue in the outfield, then maybe you can start pimping. 

People keep saying give him "time" but nobody ever says how much "time" he should get. 200 games? 300 games? When is it enough? 

At some point there has to be a line in the sand that says he's not going to get it. I haven't seen anything consistently that shows he ever will. 

Dump Adell. Seriously. Maybe he figures it out somewhere else but he's not figuring it out with us. 

Through his age 25 season is how much time you give him. If we released Ward after age 25 then that would be three seasons ago. So you are giving him a fair chance and yet still less time than Ward. 

[Tank]

Adell isn’t going to improve unless he gets more playing time. But Adell isn’t going to get more playing time until he starts to improve. 
 

Classic “stuck between a rock and a hard place” situation.

[ScottT]

I don't see it.

I hope I'm wrong.  

[Angelsjunky]

7 hours ago, Stradling said:

Through his age 25 season is how much time you give him. If we released Ward after age 25 then that would be three seasons ago. So you are giving him a fair chance and yet still less time than Ward. 

If he's another Taylor Ward, then maybe the Angels should give him the Taylor Ward treatment: keep him in the minors until he's ready to contribute at the major league level. Ward's playing time by age and performance:

age 24: 147 PA, -0.4 WAR

age 25: 48 PA, -0.5 WAR

age 26: 102 PA, 0.3 WAR

age 27: 237 PA, 0.7 WAR

Adell:

age 21: 132 PA, -1.4 WAR

age 22: 140 PA, 0.1 WAR

age 23: 174 PA, -0.6 WAR

If I'm in the Angels, I'd give Adell as much playing time as possible for the rest of the year, but unless he shows significant improvement, he should start 2023 in AAA and be told that he's just like any other minor leaguer: he'll get his chances if he performs. It is one thing to give him playing time now, quite another when the year is fresh and the Angels theoretically have a chance to compete.

 

[Stradling]

52 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

If he's another Taylor Ward, then maybe the Angels should give him the Taylor Ward treatment: keep him in the minors until he's ready to contribute at the major league level. Ward's playing time by age and performance:

age 24: 147 PA, -0.4 WAR

age 25: 48 PA, -0.5 WAR

age 26: 102 PA, 0.3 WAR

age 27: 237 PA, 0.7 WAR

Adell:

age 21: 132 PA, -1.4 WAR

age 22: 140 PA, 0.1 WAR

age 23: 174 PA, -0.6 WAR

If I'm in the Angels, I'd give Adell as much playing time as possible for the rest of the year, but unless he shows significant improvement, he should start 2023 in AAA and be told that he's just like any other minor leaguer: he'll get his chances if he performs. It is one thing to give him playing time now, quite another when the year is fresh and the Angels theoretically have a chance to compete.

 

I’m also fine with that. What I’m not fine with is assuming he will never be anything based on less than 120 mlb games. 

[Jay]

What's strange to me is how Adell was ever such a highly rated prospect.

His defense is shocking. Almost like he never played baseball until last week.

 

[Inside Pitch]

This thread screams I read/believed the hype, followed the stats, but never bothered to watch him play in the minors.

Rengifo was given up on.  Detmers was a fourth/fifth starter at best.  Ward wasn't a MLB player, Suarez should have been DFA'd, and Canning was an ace in making until he had a bad half season during a juiced ball season where he ended up being hurt.... Now he's cannon fodder.  These were all things said/believed by the masses on this board.

Feel bad for O'Hoppe and whoever else gets hyped up next.  

[T.G.]

Personally, I reserve judgment on all prospects.

[Jason]

37 minutes ago, Jay said:

What's strange to me is how Adell was ever such a highly rated prospect.

His defense is shocking. Almost like he never played baseball until last week.

 

So much so that he was untouchable in trade scenarios 

[Inside Pitch]

9 minutes ago, T.G. said:

Personally, I reserve judgment on all prospects.

Smartest move possible  

[T.G.]

1 hour ago, Inside Pitch said:

Smartest move possible  

Well, I don't know how to evaluate baseball talent.  I can't break down a swing or look at someone's pitching mechanics and understand what's going on, etc.  Most of all, I'm not going to try and pretend like I know how to.  I don't get overly excited about rankings either.  Plenty of players who have made good contributions, weren't highly rated and vice versa.

 

Edited August 17, 2022 by T.G.

[Jay]

1 hour ago, T.G. said:

Personally, I reserve judgment on all prospects.

That's fine because as a fan your judgement is not important.

[Inside Pitch]

48 minutes ago, T.G. said:

Well, I don't know how to evaluate baseball talent.  I can't break down a swing or look at someone's pitching mechanics and understand what's going on, etc.  Most of all, I'm not going to try and pretend like I know how to.  I don't get overly excited about rankings either.  Plenty of players who have made good contributions, weren't highly rated and vice versa.

The issue I think is people tend to follow guys using the traditional triple slash numbers, and for the most part none of those numbers are predictive, they tell us what happened not why.  Last year when Adell started to tear up AAA people were clamoring for them to bring him back up, I argued they needed to keep him there until he improved the areas he was lacking in, the numbers were there but the growth wasn't.

Adell is a physical freak.  He can do things others cannot due to what is truly elite athleticism. You can athlete your way through the minors and get away with flaws because you can out muscle or outrun the situation -- not so much in MLB.  Adell was able to mask his misreading batted balls in the minors because of pure athleticism -- when you have guys hitting balls with exit velocities around 75-80 mph, guess what, super fast guys that got a bad step or ran the wrong way can make up for it because of their athleticism.   The reason people let it go is they give that athleticism the benefit of the doubt, they assume it will allow him to continue to make up for his mistakes, but the margin for error is a lot smaller the higher up you go.  He's at the point where he just needs to struggle his way through shit and actually learn to do the things he can't out-athlete.  

The other thing about Adell, he's got a lot of swing and miss.  He always has.  The pitching in MLB has never been better, everybody throws harder, things bend more than ever and they do so at significantly faster speeds than they used to.  Had you dropped Adell into the 2000s, he likely sees much greater results but the current game and his swing and miss tendencies are going to make those issues that much more glaring.

Jo Adell was/is never going to hit for a high average but it is possible he can get on base enough that you can live with a .250-265 batting average.  It may seem impossible but there really is the hope he will outgrow his thinking he can turn on everything and eventually lay off pitches.  As @Docwaukee has said countless times, it's not a lack of plate discipline, he can tell balls from strikes, it's the discipline to not swing just because he can.

On a personal note -- the pimping stuff is super annoying but whatever, it's part of who he is.  

[Duren, Duren]

He has to play every game the rest of the season. See what happens. He won't get better by sitting on the bench. The larger the sample size, the better to evaluate his progress. Or lack thereof.

On the only positive note, he has shown improvement with his throws from the outfield. Overall defense though is still bad. You would think that extensive practice would help,but it looks like it's a mental block as well as just poor judgment. He has the physical tools, so it really is an enigma. 

And at times, shows a bit more selectivity at the plate. But it doesn't last very long. He still guesses a lot and gets himself out.

The franchise has invested a lot of hope projecting him as a long term star. Or at least as a regular, good player. Trades made and not pursued have been based on those expectations.

They need to give him as much opportunity as possible before deciding what to do with him. Wins and losses are secondary the rest of this season. It should be an extended developmental camp.  So play him every day. And if he shows signs of progress maybe it will help turn the corner. If not, they at least will have more data to process. 

[ThisismineScios]

“I don’t know what scouts ever saw in him.” 

What? Scouts are looking at tools, athleticism, and potential. His max exit velo was elite in 2020. The power is real, as is the speed. He’s an elite athlete. That’s what scouts do. 

Imagine a 6-6 high flying college / HS kid that could also drain 3s, scoring 40 points a game against high schoolers or low level colleges. If they get to the NBA and struggled mightily, or at least couldn’t perform to that level, no sentient person would question what scouts saw in him. They’d question the coaching or the mental focus of the kid. 

[Inside Pitch]

2 minutes ago, ThisismineScios said:

“I don’t know what scouts ever saw in him.” 

What? Scouts are looking at tools, athleticism, and potential. His max exit velo was elite in 2020. The power is real, as is the speed. He’s an elite athlete. That’s what scouts do. 

Bingo... and here it is...

See what they see/saw?

Know where there isn't anything other than exit velo or sprint speed in either 2021 or 2022..  Because he doesn't have enough at bats to get a real gauge on how he's performing relative to the rest of the league in either 21/22..  

But sure, punt on the kid.

[Erstad Grit]

22 hours ago, Torridd said:

I don't understand how so little think he'll be a good player. I'm pretty sure he'll be a 3-4 War player.

Because he can't play the outfield 

[Stradling]

1 hour ago, Jay said:

That's fine because as a fan your judgement is not important.

I’m going to use this line every single day.

[tomsred]

46 minutes ago, Erstad Grit said:

Because he can't play the outfield 

I disagree, I think he is showing improvement in the outfield, and he does have a good arm.

[HanfordGuy]

I think he has a great career and will be a decent outfielder. He’ll get through these early struggles.

[Jay]

Suffice to say he was overrated as a prospect.