Heyman: Angels have decided to keep Shohei Ohtani

[Angel Oracle]

19 minutes ago, UndertheHalo said:

This is the current Arte.  But what if tomorrows Arte sucks less ?? 

We’ve been hoping for that for the past decade.

[Deek]

7 minutes ago, Chuckster70 said:

I'm pretty happy with this. I kept going through scenarios of different teams prospects/players coming our way for Shohei Ohtani and none of them really made me feel good with the return.

I truly believe that Arte will not only extend Ohtani but shock the world by adding some key players to help bolster the club's chances in 2023 and beyond. 

Same...

 

And I'll add: I actually think Shohei likes it here and would prefer to stay... Now Arte and Perry need to show Ohtani (and Trout) the commitment they both deserve as the two greatest players of this generation....

[mmc]

If we want to stick with this core, we need to start buying as early as now to show Ohtani we're serious, or he'll have little reason to want to stay here.  Just no other option.

[cals]

1 minute ago, mmc said:

If we want to stick with this core, we need to start buying as early as now to show Ohtani we're serious, or he'll have little reason to want to stay here.  Just no other option.

I tend to agree.  Trade Thor but let's get some guys who can help right away (probably in other deals). 

[Inside Pitch]

26 minutes ago, cals said:

The only thing that makes this the right decision is if Moreno opens the checkbook now.

This and only this.   Because there is absolutely no reason for him to stick around and this team as it sits today won't win.

[rafibomb]

I believe the difference in value of trading Ohtani now vs in the offseason/next deadline won’t be much different because team trading for him I’m sure will believe they have a decent shot at getting him to sign an extension as well.

Edited August 1, 2022 by rafibomb

[T.G.]

THE most amazing thing about all of this is that I had no idea @cals was actually capable of talking baseball. Did someone hack his account?

[AngelsFaninGA]

34 minutes ago, cals said:

The only thing that makes this the right decision is if Moreno opens the checkbook now.

Letting him walk or letting him and Trout wallow amongst mediocrity for the next decade are not acceptable options.

Frankly I think he is re-signed and then the Angels will still suck. 

I agree that Ohtani stays. He's a hard working lead by example type (like Trout) and doesn't strike me as someone who's going to rock the boat. That said, this roster has so many holes (GM, entire coaching staff, 90% of the offense, the entire bullpen, the farm system, etc) that Arte would have to increase the payroll by orders of magnitude to address that (since we already know we're not going to suddenly fix our scouting and player development and address our problems through means other than signing guys to massive contracts).  

[Angelsjunky]

So the scenarios, from best to worst:

1. The Angels are good next year, Ohtani extends, and remains great for years to come.
2. The Angels are good next year, but Ohtani leaves via free agency and the Angels get nothing for him but a compensation pick. 
3. The Angels are good next year, Ohtani extends and becomes the next big albatross, but at least the Angels are good.
4. The Angels are bad next year, but Ohtani extends and remains really good.
5. The Angels are bad next year, the Angels trade Ohtani by the deadline and get a couple good prospects for him (50, 45 FV).
6. The Angels are bad next year, Ohtani leaves via free agency.
7. The Angels are bad next year, Ohtani gets hurt and extends and is another albatross, and the Angels continue to tailspin for the next 5+ years.

I think it will probably be either 1 or 5. If the Angels contend, I think Ohtani stays. If they don't, he probably leaves.

That said, I think even if they don't make the playoffs, there's still a good chance that he stays - but they have to improve (say, win 85+ games). If it is another year like the last seven, I think he'll leave no matter what Arte offers him. 

Or to put it another way, I think the key is "85 wins." If the Angels win 85 games next year - or are still in the race by the deadline - I think Ohtani will stay.

 

[cals]

His value is massive now.  It goes down roughly 33% this offseason and another 33% the next deadline. 

I'm assuming GMSs look at the amount of games they will get from him and the value will correspond to the amount of games.

[T.G.]

8.  Angels extend Ohtani and provide him with opt outs after 1, 3 and 5 years.

[cals]

3 minutes ago, T.G. said:

THE most amazing thing about all of this is that I had no idea @cals was actually capable of talking baseball. Did someone hack his account?

I'm extremely drunk right now.  When I sober up I'll start talking shit again. 

[T.G.]

Just now, cals said:

I'm extremely drunk right now.  When I sober up I'll start talking shit again. 

2023?

[Angelsjunky]

Just now, T.G. said:

8.  Angels extend Ohtani and provide him with opt outs after 1, 3 and 5 years.

Sure, but that's including in 1, 3, 4, and 7. The nature of the extension may vary widely, depending upon his performance and what he asks for. If he has another season like the last two, he's going to get what he wants - the richest contract in baseball history (by AAV, at least), and probably an opt out or two. If he combines his hitting from last year with his pitching from this year and has a 9-10 WAR season, it is going to be absurd.

[cals]

Just now, T.G. said:

2023?

You have time, let's leave it at that. 

[Angelsfan1984]

i dont think his value will be higher than it is this deadline. If a GM decides Ohtani is the missing piece, they have an opportunity to compete for 2 world series as opposed to 1. So even if they trade for him and he walks anyway, they can put themselves in the convo for 2 post seasons.

[Angelsjunky]

We don't know what the Yankees offered, and even if they offered the Angels their four best prospects, none of them are better than 55 FV. Meaning, no elite prospects.

Jasson Dominguez (50 FV) remains intriguing, but isn't quite taking the minors by storm - yet.

[Angelsjunky]

Anyhow, I assume this is legit. There's always the off chance that its a bluff to encourage last minute offer increases, but I doubt it.

[floplag]

35 minutes ago, Chuckster70 said:

I'm pretty happy with this. I kept going through scenarios of different teams prospects/players coming our way for Shohei Ohtani and none of them really made me feel good with the return.

I truly believe that Arte will not only extend Ohtani but shock the world by adding some key players to help bolster the club's chances in 2023 and beyond. 

God i wish i believed this, i truly do.  

[Dtwncbad]

Sometimes word choices bug me if it appears they could have chosen different word to be more accurate.

No, the Angels didn’t just “decide to keep Ohtani.”

The Angels decided the window for other teams to even engage on the subject has expired because nobody was in the ballpark to tempt them to trade him.

Maybe I am being picky, but to me there is an importance difference between the two.

 

[Chuck]

8 minutes ago, mmc said:

If we want to stick with this core, we need to start buying as early as now to show Ohtani we're serious, or he'll have little reason to want to stay here.  Just no other option.

 

6 minutes ago, cals said:

I tend to agree.  Trade Thor but let's get some guys who can help right away (probably in other deals). 

I totally agree. 

[Chuck]

18 minutes ago, T.G. said:

THE most amazing thing about all of this is that I had no idea @cals was actually capable of talking baseball. Did someone hack his account?

He's about to become an AW mod, actually. He's been on good behavior and as a lifelong friend of the website and of mine personally, I think he'll do a great job! 

[Angelsfan1984]

8 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Anyhow, I assume this is legit. There's always the off chance that its a bluff to encourage last minute offer increases, but I doubt it.

Almost thinking the same thing. Better increase the offer if you want to entice a move. wouldnt be surprised to see a report later today contradicting this one. Saying the Angels are very much still engage with teams on Ohtani.

[Angelsjunky]

I was wondering why cals was being so nice.

[BTH]

1 hour ago, T.G. said:

Keep spewing that narrative. 

We have no idea what the coming off season will look like.  It's possible that Moreno spends more to make the team better and convinces Ohtani to stay.  But we all see what we want to see.   Time will tell.

It’s not a “narrative,” it’s common sense.

Ohtani has said nothing to make one think he’s gonna sign an extension with the Angels.

Anything’s possible, but is it likely that something changes to convince Ohtani to stay? No, not with the way this org has been run.