Jason Vargas: Sign to an extension or trade for prospects?

[Catwhoshatinthehat]

Obviously the Angels need pitching but I agree that they don't appear to be just a few pieces away.  As we've been saying all along if Pujols and Hamilton play like the Pujols and Hamilton of old even accounting for a decline as they age the team would be in a much better position.  Pujols' projected numbers for 2013 don't look bad but they aren't Pujols like and definitely not what the team thought they'd be getting at this point of the contract.  As far as Vargas liking it here I don't doubt it (CA native, played at CSULB) but if he continues to pitch like he has I think he can get quite a bit more on the market than a 3/30 deal.  Trading him for prospects would hopefully help the farm and the team going forward as they build around Trout and other young guys.

[eaterfan]

This is a tough question.  Will the Angels be competitive next season?  Also, how much is Vargas going to ask for?  Do you really want to waste another year of Trumbo and Trouts control and give up on next year?  Especially since FA'cy pitchers are slim.  

 

With the numbers he's put up, and being a lefty, and FA'cy being slim, I think he will get a good deal.  So will he take 3/$30?  Not sure, but he is a local boy (apple valley), so maybe he is comfortable here.  

 

Also got to take this into account.  Prospects we trade for might not be ready for 1-3 years.  So that's 1-3 years of not helping the big club, and 1-3 years of Trumbo and Trout closer to free agency.  

 

IMO, I think I'm changing my mind from my previous stances earlier, and unless an offer comes out that blows you out of the water, you keep him.  Offer him the 3/$30 to see if he bites.  Come the offseason, you offer him arbitration, so that if you lose him, you get the compensation pick.  And if he accepts, it's a one year deal, and you still try and sign him to a 3 year deal.  

 

In answer to your original question "Will the Angels be competitive next year?", it depends on your definition of competitive. I feel like they can be a decent team, top out at 85 wins. That doesn't make them competitive for a championship though.

 

If we don't compete for a championship next year will we in the years after that without giving up a lot of major league talent (we have no minor league talent to give up) or significantly raising the payroll? We've seen how well that works with Wilson, Pujols, Hamilton, Madson, etc.

 

If we aren't competing the next three years aren't we wasting the club control of Trout, Trumbo, Bourjos just the same as if we trade Vargas?

 

You bring up that a player we get won't contribute for 1-3 years anyway. We still have 4 years of Trout and 10-11 years until he's past his prime. Extend Trout and then build to win in his prime window. Don't half way go for it either. Trade Trumbo, Aybar, Kendrick, Vargas, Bourjos, Frieri, Congor or Ianetta and Callaspo. Those guys should be able to bring in 10 top 100 prospects and some solid BP prospect type guys. Take high draft picks for a few years. Be ready to make a run at a world series in 4 years right before Trout will be ready to hit FA if he isn't already extended.

[JB Abell]

Sign him. We need starting pitchers and he's a player that's enjoyable to watch. Sure, the angels are in need of much more, but i don't believe we will get much for Vargas and it would be nice to have more then trout and weaver to root for while this team sucks for the next few years.

[Ohtaniland]

I'm a big JV fan. His family is happy here, they live 30 minutes from the stadium and he loves it here. Extend him.

Perfect, let's see how he does for the full season and not jump the gun if he likes it here so much. If he leaves, then that just means that someone else overpaid him.

[Catwhoshatinthehat]

Sign him. We need starting pitchers and he's a player that's enjoyable to watch. Sure, the angels are in need of much more, but i don't believe we will get much for Vargas and it would be nice to have more then trout and weaver to root for while this team sucks for the next few years.

 

Don't disagree but your last sentence points out what others have been discussing - if the team is so many pieces away then they need to restock and possibly rebuild and you don't do that by signing high priced free agents every year.  That means you sign someone you can get on one or two year deals ala Jermoe and not a guy who will command 10M or more per year for 3+ years. 

[gotbeer]

 

You bring up that a player we get won't contribute for 1-3 years anyway. We still have 4 years of Trout and 10-11 years until he's past his prime. Extend Trout and then build to win in his prime window. Don't half way go for it either. Trade Trumbo, Aybar, Kendrick, Vargas, Bourjos, Frieri, Congor or Ianetta and Callaspo. Those guys should be able to bring in 10 top 100 prospects and some solid BP prospect type guys. Take high draft picks for a few years. Be ready to make a run at a world series in 4 years right before Trout will be ready to hit FA if he isn't already extended.

 

Just as a healthy discussion.  But would Trout sign with a team, in which he has never gotten to the playoffs with, and who traded all the players that could have gotten him there to rebuild?  The only constant in 4 years will be the last year of Hamilton and a guy ready to claim social security.  You may also not have that manager that you are familiar with in 5 years.  

 

There will be plenty of teams that will offer him more money than he knows what to do with.  So you really have to make an environment in which Trout will want to stay in.  I don't think rebuilding is that environment.  IMO, you have to attempt to win for the next 4 years, if you want any hopes of keeping him.  

[Catwhoshatinthehat]

Except if the team really is multiple pieces away because of the current roster which includes high priced players struggling how do you compete?  Do they keep signing a big FA every year keeping the payroll in a certain range?  Because if that doesn't work out you're possibly worse off as high priced FA's age.  You can't keep throwing money around trying to buy a winner and at some point you do have to mostly go with what you have, restock and bring in vets on 1-2 year deals to fill needs. 

[Mudville]

Jerome is signed for another year.

Not really. He is a 3rd year arbitration candidate but that does not mean he is actually signed for next season.

 

Williams is due for a sizeable pay increase so if trading is on everyone's mind a long relief/5th starter with one year left under club control is probably more attractive on the open market than a soon to be free agent Vargas.

[Brent Maguire]

A team like Cleveland or NYY could use someone down the stretch if they're competing for a wild card spot or division spot. It's a wait and see approach right now.

Certain pitchers like Peavy and Lee might not be moved so Jason would be a fallback option for some teams. I'd love to keep him but if a certain package comes about that adds good young talent to the system, you go for it.

[Bob Trop]

I think you explore the trade options to see if some other club will over pay( like the Angels did with Greinke). If can't get a reasonable offer in trade then try to sign him to an extension, but not for more than 3 years. If you can!t resign him then at least tender an offer to get a Draft pick.

[AZMike]

Give him a one qualifying offer for next year. 

 

If some other team offers him a huge deal and he accepts, we get a sandwich draft pick. If he takes the offer we have him another year at a reasonable price. 

[eaterfan]

Give him a one qualifying offer for next year. 

 

If some other team offers him a huge deal and he accepts, we get a sandwich draft pick. If he takes the offer we have him another year at a reasonable price. 

 

The problem with this is we likely would find ourselves in the same position next year except we've burned another year of Trout's career, Vargas has less trade value (one year older), and the prospects we would get in a trade this year are most likely better than any player we would get with a sandwich pick.

 

Also if we are doing a full rebuild as I think we should then it delays that by a year and we run into similar problems with trading players like Howie and Bourjos. We waste more of Trout's career before help arrives and they bring less in a trade because they are a year older and have less time on their contracts.

[Jay]

I'm afraid if Dipoto makes any move it will turn out shitty, so I vote for "do nothing."

[Catwhoshatinthehat]

Not if they're thinking long-term.

 

What you're talking about is a huge signal that it's time to begin the arduous process of real rebuilding.

 

Right but signing someone like Vargas at possibly 10M or more per year for multiple years is still a pretty big move.  From what I can find they have 135M committed next year to 11 players (includes what they're paying Vernon) which is before addressing players in arbitration.  Putting out a high payroll team that doesn't quite compete year after year just delays the inevitable which is that at some point all teams have to rebuild. 

[eaterfan]

Cez...

 

I don't think the argument here is the money on Vargas so much as the money on the other pieces we need to improve. If we only resign Vargas and arbitration raises this team isn't winning the division. That means we need to bring in another Vargas type at a similar number. Maybe two. That is a lot of money. And even then it only extends our window a few years. Then what? We will have lost our first round pick signing another Vargas type. Our farm is weak so no one will be able to replace an aging or FA Aybar, Kendrick, Ianetta, Weaver, Wilson, Trumbo?

[Scott34]

Trade. If we keep saying "what else do we have!?!" Then the team will never be good in the long run. We have to start somewhere.

Plus with a trade you likely get 2 Bish prospects who are probably pitchers. They will be in the mix.

We can't keep tossing 10M a year+ contracts for 30 something year olds. Doesn't work. Build young.

[Mudville]

A team like Cleveland or NYY could use someone down the stretch if they're competing for a wild card spot or division spot. It's a wait and see approach right now.

Certain pitchers like Peavy and Lee might not be moved so Jason would be a fallback option for some teams. I'd love to keep him but if a certain package comes about that adds good young talent to the system, you go for it.

The Yankees are playing their minor league right now and it is not impressive. If you are going to trade, trade where the better prospects may be.

[Angel Oracle]

The Yankees are playing their minor league right now and it is not impressive. If you are going to trade, trade where the better prospects may be.

Jesus Montero is also exhibit A of NYY prospects being overrated.

[eaterfan]

I agree with eater and scott, but don't think it's the direction that the FO and by extension, owners, will care to go quite yet.

 

I agree with you Cez except I think it's more Arte who doesn't want to rebuild. I think Dipoto knows this team has shown its potential and knows it's better to sell a year too early than a year too late.

[Mark68]

I think we extend him if we can.  He's a good innings eater that fits our ballpark.  Unless someone steps in and blows us away with an offer, it'd be better to have a solid pitcher get us through a couple of thin years while we rebuild the farm than being forced to sign more Blantons.

 

If he won't extend, it might be worth it to make a qualifying offer, if a team will offer him a multiyear contract, it might be worth the extra draft pick after the first round. 

Nice first post. Welcome!

 

I agree, try to extend him. He's been arguably our most consistent pitcher. We're not going to be able to do a full rebuild, because of Pujols and Hacksaton. So, we do the next best thing...try to stay competitive (without signing any more big name free agents) while developing the farm. If he hasn't been extended by the end of the year, give him a qualifying offer, if he accepts, then we have him for one more year, if not, we get another pick.

 

I would entertain a trade if it was an overwhelming offer (which won't happen).

 

If he's not here next year, then we have a rotation of Weaver/Wilson/Hanson/Blanton/Williams. And I'll be puking. A lot.

[Chuck]

I don't see the point in trading him at all.

 

Prospects are still a crapshoot. Haven't you all learned from the Brandon Wood, Dallas McPherson, Jeff Mathis, Casey Kotchman era?

[Scott34]

Mark, you are acting like we would release Vargas. Like I said, we would probably get a starter or 2 that are close to the big leagues.

[ettin]

Someone may have already said this but why not trade him and then resign him as a free agent? **** Edit: IP did say this ****

 

Best of both worlds if we get him at a fair price? He did go to Long Beach State so I have to imagine he probably likes the area?

[eaterfan]

Chuck Richter, on 19 Jun 2013 - 1:48 PM, said:

I don't see the point in trading him at all.

Prospects are still a crapshoot. Haven't you all learned from the Brandon Wood, Dallas McPherson, Jeff Mathis, Casey Kotchman era?

You left off Santana, Weaver, Morales, Kendrick, Aybar and Callaspo from that list. I could make the opposite argument and said trading prospects is killer. How much better would this team be with Segura, Skaggs, Corbin and Torres?

I could also make the argument against trades with how many bad ones we've made: Greinke and Wells.

And Free Agent signings, Pujols, Wilson, Hamilton, Madson.

[ettin]

I don't see the point in trading him at all.

 

Prospects are still a crapshoot. Haven't you all learned from the Brandon Wood, Dallas McPherson, Jeff Mathis, Casey Kotchman era?

 

Ummmm.... but every player, whether good or bad, started out as a prospect?