The Angels Next Moves (Post-Lockout)

[eligrba]

25 minutes ago, IheartLA said:

A fletcher/wade/mayfield/rengifo/velazquez middle infield is the worst in the league right? Bottom 3 at best.

 

Before or after they shift?

[AngelStew43]

But an infield of Rendon, Velasquez, Fletcher, and Walsh is league average, at the least, and possibly much better, depending on what the SS, (Velasquez/Rengifo) contributes.  

[AngelStew43]

And, I would only trade that much for Castillo, not Gray.  And I would want a negotiation window with Castillo to offer him an extension, if I am trading that much talent away. 

[Blarg]

3 hours ago, Dtwncbad said:

Why complicate such a simple question?

Because @Inside Pitch isn't a simple minded man. And the question hasn't any destination for the answer to reach. 

[Hubs]

45 minutes ago, AngelStew43 said:

And, I would only trade that much for Castillo, not Gray.  And I would want a negotiation window with Castillo to offer him an extension, if I am trading that much talent away. 

Castillo is under arbitration control for two more seasons, plenty of time to convince him on an extension.

Gray is under contract for next season and their is a very affordable option. 

You get two seasons. That's not a lot, but depending on the package it may be worth it.

 

[Hubs]

1 hour ago, eligrba said:

Before or after they shift?

offensively yes. defensively no.

[T.G.]

This is one of the beterer threads of the off season.

[Angelsjunky]

Which has more value to the team?

2 years of Castillo (age 29-30)

1 year of Gray (age 32)

5 years of Adell (age 23-27)

6 years of Marsh (age 24-29)

You trade one of Adell or Marsh for Castillo or Gray, and not only do you create a hole in the OF for the foreseeable future, but you also are relying on either re-signing the pitcher or dealing with them departing in 1-2 years. 

 

 

[Docwaukee]

2 hours ago, AngelStew43 said:

But an infield of Rendon, Velasquez, Fletcher, and Walsh is league average, at the least, and possibly much better, depending on what the SS, (Velasquez/Rengifo) contributes.  

no.  they're not. not even close.  

[Docwaukee]

33 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Which has more value to the team?

2 years of Castillo (age 29-30)

1 year of Gray (age 32)

5 years of Adell (age 23-27)

6 years of Marsh (age 24-29)

You trade one of Adell or Marsh for Castillo or Gray, and not only do you create a hole in the OF for the foreseeable future, but you also are relying on either re-signing the pitcher or dealing with them departing in 1-2 years. 

 

 

I would hope we all know that Adell and Marsh have more value long term.  The question is whether a guy like Gray or Castillo would move the needle enough for the current team to make it worth giving up that future value.  My initial thought is no fucking way.  Not unless you do some other stuff along side of it which, based on payroll, would also require a huge dent in the already questionable and young farm system.  

It's just dumb, in my opinion, to solve a problem in the way that we're now considering when it could have been solved in a much easier way.  

[Angelsjunky]

35 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

I would hope we all know that Adell and Marsh have more value long term.  The question is whether a guy like Gray or Castillo would move the needle enough for the current team to make it worth giving up that future value.  My initial thought is no fucking way.  Not unless you do some other stuff along side of it which, based on payroll, would also require a huge dent in the already questionable and young farm system.  

It's just dumb, in my opinion, to solve a problem in the way that we're now considering when it could have been solved in a much easier way.  

Agreed. I mean, it makes some sense if it involves a further trade for a Tommy Pham, as someone suggested, or if Adams was on the cusp. But I think people underestimate the value of Marsh and Adell, because they didn't supernova like Trout did. And of course there's the typical kneejerk panic mode: "We didn't sign Scherzer (or Cole or Greinke or Crawford), so panic now!" Well, that leads to Vernon Wells and Josh Hamilton (I'm reasonably confident Rendon won't be Part 3).

Even if such a trade made sense, I just dislike the idea of trading away homegrown top prospects from an ideological and even aesthetic perspective. Even though I was still a kid, when the Angels started developing solid players in the late 80s and early 90s--Joyner, White, McLemore, Howell, Finley, etc--there was something about them being "our guys" that made me feel more connected to the team. Or the 90s crew, with Salmon, Edmonds, Anderson, and then Erstad and Glaus. This is also why Trout is more valuable than even the tally of his WAR.

Or to put it another way, even if something makes some sense on paper, doesn't mean it's the best thing to do. And when it only makes kinda sense--or little sense--then hell, no.

Edited December 16, 2021 by Angelsjunky

[Hubs]

1 hour ago, Angelsjunky said:

Which has more value to the team?

2 years of Castillo (age 29-30)

1 year of Gray (age 32)

5 years of Adell (age 23-27)

6 years of Marsh (age 24-29)

You trade one of Adell or Marsh for Castillo or Gray, and not only do you create a hole in the OF for the foreseeable future, but you also are relying on either re-signing the pitcher or dealing with them departing in 1-2 years. 

 

 

1 year plus a team option, (so essentially two if he's good)...of Gray.

[Angelsjunky]

1 hour ago, Dochalo said:

no.  they're not. not even close.  

Not even close? Maybe if Rendon is hurt again, Fletcher repeats 2021, and Walsh regresses. But I think that group is likely to be at least close to average. Even a bearish estimate:

Rendon: 4 WAR 

Velasquez etc: 0 WAR

Fletcher: 1 WAR

Walsh: 2 WAR

If 2-3 is average range, that's 7/4 = 1.75 per position, so slightly below average. But again, that's pretty bearish. Rendon could produce 5 WAR, Fletch could return to at least 2-3 WAR level, and Walsh could repeat or exceed last year wiht 3-4 WAR. And who knows, maybe one of Velasquez, Mayfield, Wade, Rengifo, Davis, or Stefanic will emerge as a decent 1-2 WAR player.

[DCAngelsFan]

14 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Agreed. I mean, it makes some sense if it involves a further trade for a Tommy Pham, as someone suggested, or if Adams was on the cusp. But I think people underestimate the value of Marsh and Adell, because they didn't supernova like Trout did. And of course there's the typical kneejerk panic mode: "We didn't sign Scherzer (or Cole or Greinke or Crawford), so panic now!" Well, that leads to Vernon Wells and Josh Hamilton (I'm reasonably confident Rendon won't be Part 3).

Even if such a trade made sense, I just dislike the idea of trading away homegrown top prospects from an ideological and even aesthetic perspective. Even though I was still a kid, when the Angels started developing solid players in the late 80s and early 90s--Joyner, White, McLemore, Howell, Finley, etc--there was something about them being "our guys" that made me feel more connected to the team. Or the 90s crew, with Salmon, Edmonds, Anderson, and then Erstad and Glaus. This is also why Trout is more valuable than even the tally of his WAR.

Or to put it another way, even if something makes some sense on paper, doesn't mean it's the best thing to do. And when it only makes kinda sense--or little sense--then hell, no.

Hopefully, those reactive terrible, awful-at-the-time mistakes were:

• Arte driving the trade or signing 'cause reasons and,
• Arte has learned his lesson, and/or PM would threaten to quit rather than have "author of one of the worst trades/signings in baseball history" on his resume 

PM can't be thinking like a fan.  Trade either of them - who'll play their position?  Upton?   I can't imagine a full-time role for him - his defense costs us games, while his offense costs us wins  

I think Marsh has some recognized value right now, Adell earned some skeptics, but I think we need "both" in 2022, short of a major acquisition. 

And Adams' last season doesn't bode well for seeing him playing a role any time soon, if ... .

If we had to absolutely, positively trade one of Marsh/Adell, I guess I'd keep Marsh right now - we know his defense will play in CF, Trout will face a bit of the Erstad dilemma - he can stay on the field longer if he gives up CF.  The sooner he's good with that, the better the team will be.  

But I wouldn't trade either of them - short of some GM losing their mind in some lopsided trade ("Paging Tony Reagins ...."), there are (or at least "were") less-costly ways to get what we need ..

 

[Angelsjunky]

According to the Baseball Trade Simulator (which is generally pretty accurate), here are the type of packages it would take to acquire Gray or Castillo:

Gray: Adell, Bachman, Bush

Castillo: Marsh, Sandoval, Jackson

To quote Stan Lee, 'Nuff Said.

[Dtwncbad]

8 minutes ago, DCAngelsFan said:

If we had to absolutely, positively trade one of Marsh/Adell, I guess I'd keep Marsh right now - we know his defense will play in CF,

Thanks.  And thanks for showing others that it just isn’t that hard to answer simple questions.

[Stradling]

If I had to choose to trade Marsh or Adell I’d trade Adams. 

[Hubs]

As far as trading the kid outfielders go, I am not in favor, but I do want to see a pitching add. I'd trade Adams and Jackson any day of the week, but I don't think that gets you close to Castillo.

Now, one thing to remember, is that this year, even when they have a full year of Trout, that there are 162 games, three outfield spots, so say Trout plays 147. That leaves 339. That's 113 each between Adell, Marsh, and Upton, but more likely one of these two guys starts at AAA, Ward gets some OF time and we'll see where they are at health wise in the first two months. Upton plays a higher percentage of that in the first two months, if he's hitting well, then he plays. If he's not, then he sits more once Marsh is called up.

So even if they're not traded, in 2022, we're not seeing 150+ games from either Marsh or Adell.

I'd expect Adell to play probably 22 games a month in the first two months, taking five or so games off, with Ward getting those starts, and a few playing next to him while he plays CF when Trout DH's or rests.

Upton will play probably 18-20, with Ward playing the rest. 

So on June 1, having played 55 games, I'd expect the OF starts to be as follows r close to this.: Trout 48 CF, 2 DH. Adell LF 33, CF 7, RF 5. Upton LF 22, RF 23. Ward RF 27.

Then, if Marsh is killing it in AAA, and Upton is struggling, he gets called up, plays the vast majority of the rest of the season, playing 90-100 games of the 107. Adell probably plays a similar percentage, leaving Upton to get 10% playing time?

Ward can handle 50 ish games in the OF next year, That would leave Upton with maybe 80, Marsh with 100, and Adell with maybe 120?

 

[tdawg87]

1 hour ago, Angelsjunky said:

Gray: Adell, Bachman, Bush

Lmao no

[Angelsjunky]

9 minutes ago, Hubs said:

As far as trading the kid outfielders go, I am not in favor, but I do want to see a pitching add. I'd trade Adams and Jackson any day of the week, but I don't think that gets you close to Castillo.

Now, one thing to remember, is that this year, even when they have a full year of Trout, that there are 162 games, three outfield spots, so say Trout plays 147. That leaves 339. That's 113 each between Adell, Marsh, and Upton, but more likely one of these two guys starts at AAA, Ward gets some OF time and we'll see where they are at health wise in the first two months. Upton plays a higher percentage of that in the first two months, if he's hitting well, then he plays. If he's not, then he sits more once Marsh is called up.

So even if they're not traded, in 2022, we're not seeing 150+ games from either Marsh or Adell.

I'd expect Adell to play probably 22 games a month in the first two months, taking five or so games off, with Ward getting those starts, and a few playing next to him while he plays CF when Trout DH's or rests.

Upton will play probably 18-20, with Ward playing the rest. 

So on June 1, having played 55 games, I'd expect the OF starts to be as follows r close to this.: Trout 48 CF, 2 DH. Adell LF 33, CF 7, RF 5. Upton LF 22, RF 23. Ward RF 27.

Then, if Marsh is killing it in AAA, and Upton is struggling, he gets called up, plays the vast majority of the rest of the season, playing 90-100 games of the 107. Adell probably plays a similar percentage, leaving Upton to get 10% playing time?

Ward can handle 50 ish games in the OF next year, That would leave Upton with maybe 80, Marsh with 100, and Adell with maybe 120?

 

I appreciate the breakdown (I did something similar a couple months back). That said, a couple things.

One, why would they start Marsh in AAA when he actually performed better than Adell, if you take defense into account?

Two, with Upton's inconsistent play and Trout coming back from a long layoff, I think there will be plenty of starts to go around to accomodate Adell and Marsh (not to mention that, at this point, both should probably play before Upton). So you essentially have a four-man outfield platoon, with Ward either being a utility guy who can play OF, 1B, or even C in a pinch, or in AAA in case of injury.

 

[Hubs]

47 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

I appreciate the breakdown (I did something similar a couple months back). That said, a couple things.

One, why would they start Marsh in AAA when he actually performed better than Adell, if you take defense into account?

Two, with Upton's inconsistent play and Trout coming back from a long layoff, I think there will be plenty of starts to go around to accomodate Adell and Marsh (not to mention that, at this point, both should probably play before Upton). So you essentially have a four-man outfield platoon, with Ward either being a utility guy who can play OF, 1B, or even C in a pinch, or in AAA in case of injury.

 

I think Marsh needs more time in AAA, he's only played 24 games in AAA, and Adell played 27 in 2019, and 73 in 2021. Marsh is a bit behind with the bat compared to Adell, even though they had similar Major League Numbers in their limited time.

Both may start in the bigs, but if Upton kills it or simply plays well in ST, I don't see that happening.

Ward I think gets 25 starts at 1st base, as a righty platoon bat for Walsh. Walsh struggled against lefties, and so against the toughest ones he'll sit. He should get some AB's, but they also have Ward who was great against lefties last season, and plays a competent defense.

 

[BTH]

I think one, or both, of Upton/Ward gets a decent amount of playing time at 1B. The Angels backup 1B options on the 40-man after Walsh are Thaiss (who is the backup C as it stands right now) and Rojas. All three of those guys are lefties, and there is a need for a righty (especially with Walsh's struggles vs. LHP).

[eligrba4ever]

First thing to do after the lockout ends is get ready for spring '23. Maybe winter meetings 2022.

Maybe it ends before any of that, but, you know ... Spitballing.

[Revad]

3 minutes ago, eligrba4ever said:

First thing to do after the lockout ends is get ready for spring '23. Maybe winter meetings 2022.

Maybe it ends before any of that, but, you know ... Spitballing.

Others sports are taking a hit like the NFL.

[Redondo]

4 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

According to the Baseball Trade Simulator (which is generally pretty accurate), here are the type of packages it would take to acquire Gray or Castillo:

Gray: Adell, Bachman, Bush

Castillo: Marsh, Sandoval, Jackson

To quote Stan Lee, 'Nuff Said.

I would rather keep the young players

Keep building the farm

Home developed pitching should be the main goal

Also position players