Official 2021-22 Hot Stove League Thread.

[totdprods]

1 minute ago, Stradling said:

 

Yeah but it's Heyman 

Actually this is the first indication (to me) that it's realistic Halos and Scherzer match up, given what Chuck said.

 

[tdawg87]

Boras feeding Heyman with some bullshit.

[Stradling]

I still think logically that Scherzer is the most likely signing. No long term commitment, which works in the Ohtani extension timeline.  He has some name recognition.  I’m not saying he will be signed but if history tells us anything, this is the most likely scenario. 

[Angelsfan1984]

Los Angeles artes of Anaheim 

[Stradling]

 

[totdprods]

Just now, Stradling said:

I still think logically that Scherzer is the most likely signing. No long term commitment, which works in the Ohtani extension timeline.  He has some name recognition.  I’m not saying he will be signed but if history tells us anything, this is the most likely scenario. 

Agreed.

To me, Stroman felt like the "smart" move...someone one of the more analytical/progressive teams would sign, and see it work brilliantly...
Gausman and Ray feel like this winter's Corbin move, a pitcher that everyone is pointing to as a solution because they're a top arm available in FA, but ultimately, probably not the solution. 
Scherzer has felt like the "Angels" move, for better or worse. Star power, name brand, high-risk, bold but foolish.

That said it's really hard not to be excited about Scherzer, Syndergaard, and Ohtani as the top three in a playoff series. They just have to get there.

[Warfarin]

14 minutes ago, Stradling said:

I still think logically that Scherzer is the most likely signing. No long term commitment, which works in the Ohtani extension timeline.  He has some name recognition.  I’m not saying he will be signed but if history tells us anything, this is the most likely scenario. 

Scherzer would be my preferred choice, simply because I prefer short-term, high AAV deals over longer term deals.

It'd be a sizable risk, but that would be the clearest sign that we are indeed *GOING FOR IT* now.  

A rotation headlined by Scherzer, Ohtani, and Syndergaard would be spectacular.  We'd still have work to do in terms of getting relievers, but good relievers CAN be obtained cheaply.  Minasian will just have to be resourceful in finding them.

[Angel Oracle]

Little birdie…

[wopphil]

Anyone concerned about the health of Scherzer’s arm? His end of season issues have me a bit concerned. 

[Second Base]

Unless Arte says, "screw it, let's spend what's necessary in the short term to win" then I don't believe Scherzer is an option.  At 40 million a year, that puts them over 200 million with more holes to fill in the bullpen and infield.  

I think the likelier path here is the Angels sign one more consistent starter, like Stroman, a couple more bullpen arms, and then they'll just roll the dice with who they have at SS and C. 

[jsnpritchett]

1 minute ago, Angel Oracle said:

Little birdie…

[Warfarin]

4 minutes ago, Second Base said:

Unless Arte says, "screw it, let's spend what's necessary in the short term to win" then I don't believe Scherzer is an option.  At 40 million a year, that puts them over 200 million with more holes to fill in the bullpen and infield.  

I think the likelier path here is the Angels sign one more consistent starter, like Stroman, a couple more bullpen arms, and then they'll just roll the dice with who they have at SS and C. 

Yeah, that would be what I would bet on as most likely to happen.  I think they'll sign a backup C to give Thaiss more time to develop in AAA.  But otherwise, I'm envisioning they'll let Rengifo/Wade/Mayfield battle it out for SS and let whoever has the best spring start at SS.

[Angels_Make_Me_Drink]

Let’s go Max!

[Second Base]

2 minutes ago, Warfarin said:

Yeah, that would be what I would bet on as most likely to happen.  I think they'll sign a backup C to give Thaiss more time to develop in AAA.  But otherwise, I'm envisioning they'll let Rengifo/Wade/Mayfield battle it out for SS and let whoever has the best spring start at SS.

I do wonder about the catching situation. Thaiss is a hard worker and he got better as the year progressed last year. But he'll never be a great defensive catcher. He's merely passable right now (think David Freese at 3B, nothing you'd ever get excited about, but he can handle it). 

Even with more time, he likely only becomes an ok defender. It's his bday that makes this interesting. He can hit for power, use the whole field and get on base. 

So does the team prefer a better defender as their backup catcher, or would they roll the dice on a better offensive option like Thaiss? 

And my guess is, even if they did go with him as the backup to Stassi, it's likely they'd need a very good defensive option in AAA, so that is either gets hurt, he assumes the backup role. 

It'll be interesting to see how the Angels play it. 

[Stradling]

14 minutes ago, wopphil said:

Anyone concerned about the health of Scherzer’s arm? His end of season issues have me a bit concerned. 

Yes

[totdprods]

I think wisest plan for Thaiss is give him 2022 to catch every in SLC with next crop of young arms, and have him as a theoretical internal “replacement” for 2023 if they let Stassi walk, either as a primary, tandem, or back-up option. 

Having him get sporadic playing time in Anaheim wouldn’t be best for his development, and having him catch Detmers, Daniel, Bachman, Yan, etc at AAA will foster a lot of familiarity and set him, the pitchers, and the Angels up for a good 2023. 

[Stradling]

So if you are Scherzer and you’ve made $200 million and you want to be on the West Coast, how much more would it take for you to go to the Mets?  For me it would have to be 50-100% more for me to live in my less than preferred place.  If he wants to stay on the West Coast he can easily re-sign with the Dodgers, make a ton of money and be in the playoffs.

[Pancake Bear]

25 minutes ago, wopphil said:

Anyone concerned about the health of Scherzer’s arm? His end of season issues have me a bit concerned. 

The Dodgers ought to know if he's healthy if anyone does, and they're reportedly trying to bring him back. That to me says he's fine. 

[totdprods]

I actually think the Dodgers have a limit as to what they’ll spend to retain him. They can offer familiarity and the best chance of winning a WS (in their eyes), but that also gives them some leverage. They don’t have to offer top-dollar and probably don’t want/need to, given their other needs, the Bauer mess, and their ability to probably find cheaper options that will be very productive and efficient.

I don’t think the Dodgers ‘need’ him as much (especially out of the public eye) and don’t have to retain him. 

[tdawg87]

35 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

Little birdie…

There it is!

[Warfarin]

11 minutes ago, Stradling said:

So if you are Scherzer and you’ve made $200 million and you want to be on the West Coast, how much more would it take for you to go to the Mets?  For me it would have to be 50-100% more for me to live in my less than preferred place.  If he wants to stay on the West Coast he can easily re-sign with the Dodgers, make a ton of money and be in the playoffs.

I don't think Scherzer will go to the Mets.  Even if they offer him the biggest contact, I imagine the Dodgers, Giants, and perhaps Angels will bid enough to give him a contract he wants while playing out in the West Coast.   Unless the Mets offer something obscene, like 3/150, which I doubt they will do.

[Warfarin]

7 minutes ago, totdprods said:

I actually think the Dodgers have a limit as to what they’ll spend to retain him. They can offer familiarity and the best chance of winning a WS (in their eyes), but that also gives them some leverage. They don’t have to offer top-dollar and probably don’t want/need to, given their other needs, the Bauer mess, and their ability to probably find cheaper options that will be very productive and efficient.

I don’t think the Dodgers ‘need’ him as much (especially out of the public eye) and don’t have to retain him. 

The Dodgers always seem to avoid going all out and overbidding.  I do think, though, they have a pretty significant need for Scherzer.  Their rotation currently is Buehler, Urias, Heaney, Gonsolin, and Price (per Fangraphs).  Obviously Buehler and Urias are really good, but that rotation drops off very quickly.  I'd still bet on the Dodgers re-signing Scherzer and Kershaw, which would then make that rotation really solid again.

[totdprods]

5 minutes ago, Warfarin said:

The Dodgers always seem to avoid going all out and overbidding.  I do think, though, they have a pretty significant need for Scherzer.  Their rotation currently is Buehler, Urias, Heaney, Gonsolin, and Price (per Fangraphs).  Obviously Buehler and Urias are really good, but that rotation drops off very quickly.  I'd still bet on the Dodgers re-signing Scherzer and Kershaw, which would then make that rotation really solid again.

I think the Dodgers know that they can replace Scherzer if he signs elsewhere. They have the track record. They might even prefer it but would certainly not let that be known publicly. They could go to Max and top off at 2/$50m (again, knowing they have familiarity and WS odds in their favor) and know if he passes, they could pivot and acquire someone like Sonny Gray, or an arm from the Marlins, or sign Kershaw or Rodon or a mid-tier guy and come out of it all just fine.

They’re very much in the driver’s seat on this. They got Trea Turner knowing they were perfectly fine setting a limit to retaining Max and had Trea as a consolation.

There’s also the off chance Bauer does return too.

Edited November 28, 2021 by totdprods

[Warfarin]

 

[tdawg87]

Stroman is uh, having some issues on twitter right now.