Official 2021-22 Hot Stove League Thread.

[Dtwncbad]

8 minutes ago, Warfarin said:

I really hope not.  He's had such terrible control problems over his career.  He had a career year, but he's historically struggled to pitch deep into games because of his lack of control.  CJ Wilson, anyone?

You really hope the Angels don’t land the guy that has always had great stuff, crazy spin rates, impressive velocity, and conquered his control problems so well that he just won the Cy Young . . . because he had control problems before he stopped having control problems?

[Pancake Bear]

Ray has always had great K rates. His walk rate was awful in 2020, but turned elite in 2021. If it is Ray, you're getting a guy who puts up good innings and strikes out a lot of guys. The concern is that he can't replicate the control he had in 2021. Worth noting:

There are no 'safe' options. Scherzer is old. He wasn't expected to still be good at this point, and now people expect him to go another couple years. Maybe he will, but it's a risk. None of Stroman, Ray, or Gausman is without risk. Whoever it is, I'm stoked they're going for it, and if they get another top reliever, that's an impressive push by the team to add high end depth.

[Angels 1961]

Is it Z G?

[Junkballer]

16 minutes ago, Pancake Bear said:

Ray has always had great K rates. His walk rate was awful in 2020, but turned elite in 2021. If it is Ray, you're getting a guy who puts up good innings and strikes out a lot of guys. The concern is that he can't replicate the control he had in 2021. Worth noting:

 

There are no 'safe' options. Scherzer is old. He wasn't expected to still be good at this point, and now people expect him to go another couple years. Maybe he will, but it's a risk. None of Stroman, Ray, or Gausman is without risk. Whoever it is, I'm stoked they're going for it, and if they get another top reliever, that's an impressive push by the team to add high end depth.

Stroman relies on more ground ball outs as opposed to strikeouts compared to Ray and Gausman.  I could see him looking for a team that does defense really well and don't think the Angels can take full advantage of what he has to offer.  Also, speculation has been that he may command a longer term than the other two.

Scherzer may be the best choice all things considered, shorter term, best pitcher last year until the Dogs overused him, but for me, the caveat isn't his age as much as how much his AAV will impact filling out the rest of the roster.

I'd be happy with any of the 4 but despite all the talk that starting pitching should be their overwhelming focus, there are other significant needs that a lower AAV with Gausman/Ray would fund.  Ohtani, Gausman/Ray, Syndergaard, Sandoval, Suarez, (Canning/Barria/etc.) is sufficient if BP gets it's closer and another solid arm, and they don't screw the pooch on SS.

[totdprods]

37 minutes ago, Pancake Bear said:

Ray has always had great K rates. His walk rate was awful in 2020, but turned elite in 2021. If it is Ray, you're getting a guy who puts up good innings and strikes out a lot of guys. The concern is that he can't replicate the control he had in 2021. Worth noting:

There are no 'safe' options. Scherzer is old. He wasn't expected to still be good at this point, and now people expect him to go another couple years. Maybe he will, but it's a risk. None of Stroman, Ray, or Gausman is without risk. Whoever it is, I'm stoked they're going for it, and if they get another top reliever, that's an impressive push by the team to add high end depth.

This is a great tweet because it really demonstrates that, more the most part, Stroman, Gausman, and Ray are all about the same pitcher to this point in their careers, and the big plus and minus each bring sort of equal out the other's. 

Stroman has the least potential to be a #1, but also has the safer blend of skills and pitches, and has been more consistent. 
Gausman has never really truly been awful, but likely is a very good #2 at best. He's found a new gear and doesn't really have any huge red flag.
Ray is only one of the group that probably has some true #1 potential, but his red flag - namely control - is one of the likelier parts of pitching that can be quite volatile. 

Stroman likely earns the least of the group, Ray the most, but Ray also costs you a draft pick. 

I don't really think the Angels could go wrong with any of the three. They're all extremely comparable to the type of production you'll get. Stroman is probably a little safer, Ray a little better, Gausman the most 'overrated', but at the end of it, you're paying about the same for about the same. And should the Angels land any one of them, it'll be a huge get to go with Syndergaard. 

SO it'll probably be Kershaw.

Edited November 26, 2021 by totdprods

[Angels 1961]

It's Za--  Gr-----

[Junkballer]

7 minutes ago, Angels 1961 said:

It's Za--  Gr-----

He did play for AZ, but if so, Chuck misspoke when he said "top-tier" pitcher.  Wouldn't be the sexy pick, but not the end of the world either.  BR has him projected at 4.03 ERA.  Meh, but he would provide 160 innings that wouldn't have to be assigned to Canning or Barria.  Assuming a low price compared to the "top-tier" arms, it would allow for spending elsewhere and a more balanced club overall.

Edited November 26, 2021 by Junkballer

[Pancake Bear]

15 minutes ago, Junkballer said:

He did play for AZ, but if so, Chuck misspoke when he said "top-tier" pitcher.  Wouldn't be the sexy pick, but not the end of the world either.  BR has him projected at 4.03 ERA.  Meh, but he would provide 160 innings that wouldn't have to be assigned to Canning or Barria.  Assuming a low price compared to the "top-tier" arms, it would allow for spending elsewhere and a more balanced club overall.

Realistically, how many pitchers could be called top tier at this point who are free agents?

I have it at Scherzer, Stroman, Ray, Gausman, and Kershaw. Kershaw makes no sense to sign with us, especially now. Scherzer probably isn't signing yet, and won't be with us. The other three, take your pick. 

[Lou]

That reminds me, The Ashes begins Dec. 7th

[Warfarin]

1 hour ago, Dtwncbad said:

You really hope the Angels don’t land the guy that has always had great stuff, crazy spin rates, impressive velocity, and conquered his control problems so well that he just won the Cy Young . . . because he had control problems before he stopped having control problems?

I personally wouldn't bet 5+ years on someone who "solved" their control issues for just one year.  Maybe if he showed strong control rates for several years in a row, but he posted at least 3.5 walks per 9 innings every year until last year.

I don't think he'll be worth the contract he earns, which wouldn't be bad in of itself, but the greater cost will be the fact that his contract will likely prevent us from signing others in future years.

[Pancake Bear]

6 minutes ago, Warfarin said:

I personally wouldn't bet 5+ years on someone who "solved" their control issues for just one year.  Maybe if he showed strong control rates for several years in a row, but he posted at least 3.5 walks per 9 innings every year until last year.

I don't think he'll be worth the contract he earns, which wouldn't be bad in of itself, but the greater cost will be the fact that his contract will likely prevent us from signing others in future years.

Feel free to list your preferred option so we can show how it isn't any better. 

[Warfarin]

1 hour ago, Pancake Bear said:

Ray has always had great K rates. His walk rate was awful in 2020, but turned elite in 2021. If it is Ray, you're getting a guy who puts up good innings and strikes out a lot of guys. The concern is that he can't replicate the control he had in 2021. Worth noting:

There are no 'safe' options. Scherzer is old. He wasn't expected to still be good at this point, and now people expect him to go another couple years. Maybe he will, but it's a risk. None of Stroman, Ray, or Gausman is without risk. Whoever it is, I'm stoked they're going for it, and if they get another top reliever, that's an impressive push by the team to add high end depth.

You're right in that there are no safe options, but that's why I absolutely loved the move for Syndergaard - even if his health doesn't hold up, it's just one year and you move along.

If we're going to gamble, I'd rather gamble on a high AAV, short term deal, which is why I'd prefer to gamble on Scherzer and his age concerns over Ray and his control concerns.  

I say this because of the overall position of the team - we already have several very high priced players, and will likely soon give out another mega deal to another player, so we will likely have to be judicious in terms of who we give out large deals to.

[Lou]

I want us to sign the perfect pitcher. 

[Warfarin]

1 minute ago, Pancake Bear said:

Feel free to list your preferred option so we can show how it isn't any better. 

I am in agreement with you in that there are no risk-free options.  But I would personally lean towards a higher AAV, short-term deal (a la Scherzer) or even someone like Cobb, who will likely require just 2 years.

I would probably also prefer to trade some prospect capital for someone like Gray, who likely will have a decent but not huge cost associated (as opposed to Castillo).

[Pancake Bear]

1 minute ago, Warfarin said:

You're right in that there are no safe options, but that's why I absolutely loved the move for Syndergaard - even if his health doesn't hold up, it's just one year and you move along.

If we're going to gamble, I'd rather gamble on a high AAV, short term deal, which is why I'd prefer to gamble on Scherzer and his age concerns over Ray and his control concerns.  

I say this because of the overall position of the team - we already have several very high priced players, and will likely soon give out another mega deal to another player, so we will likely have to be judicious in terms of who we give out large deals to.

The problem is it isn't just a straight up trade off. Pay more for Scherzer, we probably spend less this year. Other options allow more flexibility. Scherzer is gonna cost a ton this year. That's why I don't think it'll be Scherzer. 

[Warfarin]

1 minute ago, Pancake Bear said:

The problem is it isn't just a straight up trade off. Pay more for Scherzer, we probably spend less this year. Other options allow more flexibility. Scherzer is gonna cost a ton this year. That's why I don't think it'll be Scherzer. 

I doubt we see Scherzer also, but you can always fill the other remaining holes of this team rather cheaply as needed.  Scherzer will probably cost 10mil/yr more than Ray, Gausmann, etc.  So instead of paying someone like Iglesias ~15mil/yr to close, we can instead get by with perhaps Knebel, who will likely cost closer to 5mil/yr.  Just as an example ..

[totdprods]

There seems to be the most smoke on someone like Gausman signing given the Giants moves and the recent report..

Stroman landed out this way, but that’s nothing unusual. I still personally think he’s in a better position waiting for a big name SP or two to drop off the board.

Very little said about Ray of late, and virtually nothing about Scherzer so far. That sort of supports the Angels’ MO of signings coming out of nowhere with little warning. Loup was out of nowhere, Syndergaard was basically out of nowhere - he was mentioned in one report but there was nothing else until announced.

Could be any of them.

[Inside Pitch]

14 minutes ago, Lou said:

I want us to sign the perfect pitcher. 

[Dtwncbad]

23 minutes ago, Warfarin said:

I personally wouldn't bet 5+ years on someone who "solved" their control issues for just one year.  Maybe if he showed strong control rates for several years in a row, but he posted at least 3.5 walks per 9 innings every year until last year.

I don't think he'll be worth the contract he earns, which wouldn't be bad in of itself, but the greater cost will be the fact that his contract will likely prevent us from signing others in future years.

The control thing is the risk for Ray. Every pitcher has some kind of specific risk.

If you pass on Ray because he has that risk then you should pass on every free agent pitcher due to whatever risk they carry.

 

[Lou]

3 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

We're signing Bartolo!

[HanfordGuy]

20 hours ago, failos said:

You should change your username to Loup

Pronounced Lupe??? Hey that’s racist.

[Warfarin]

Just now, Dtwncbad said:

The control thing is the risk for Ray. Every pitcher has some kind of specific risk.

If you pass on Ray because he has that risk then you should pass on every free agent pitcher due to whatever risk they carry.

 

As I mentioned, I love the gamble on Syndergaard.  I am a fan of short-term, higher AAV deals for pitchers.  Every contract has risks, but I personally prefer short-term contracts, at least in the context of the fact that we already have several very long-term, high cost contracts on this team, and will (hopefully) soon add a third in Ohtani.

This way, if the signing does not pan out, we can fairly quickly "recover" and move forward, instead of having that contract on the books for 5 or more years.

[Inside Pitch]

3 hours ago, Junkballer said:

IF this is a hint,  Scherzer has played for Arizona.  Then again it could be a trade for Trevor Bauer who started his career there and whose career at this time could be considered in ashes.

 

3 hours ago, Pancake Bear said:

Robbie Ray. Former DBack, and lately a birdie (Blue Jay). Risen from the ashes: No one thought much of him until his CY campaign this year. 

This has totally turned into the plot for National Treasure 3.

[HanfordGuy]

13 hours ago, tdawg87 said:

[Lou]

1 minute ago, Inside Pitch said:

 

This has totally turned into the plot for National Treasure 3.

Spoiler Alert:  I was born in Phoenix.