Official 2021-22 Hot Stove League Thread.

[Revad]

10 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

It wasn't ability, it was positioning.  

I’m no expert but agree.  And isn’t pitch location part of what makes positioning work?  It’s supposed to be a team game.

[Dtwncbad]

11 hours ago, Dochalo said:

they are gonna have to do a bit of that though.  Ie find players that perform well which don't cost much.  

Yea for sure.  But in my opinion they are not going to leave a whole lot to chance in the rotation.  They have specifically failed in trying to get lucky in that area and it hasn’t worked.  I fully expect them to sign (or trade for) another pitcher that is viewed as a legit #2 or better.

If there is a money crunch in completing the roster I bet the value play will be on shortstop or in the bullpen.

[Stradling]

9 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

Yea for sure.  But in my opinion they are not going to leave a whole lot to chance in the rotation.  They have specifically failed in trying to get lucky in that area and it hasn’t worked.  I fully expect them to sign (or trade for) another pitcher that is viewed as a legit #2 or better.

If there is a money crunch in completing the roster I bet the value play will be on shortstop or in the bullpen.

I hope it’s SS. Although the pen is such a crapshoot regardless. 

[Dtwncbad]

3 minutes ago, Stradling said:

I hope it’s SS. Although the pen is such a crapshoot regardless. 

I agree completely.  And I know I said it elsewhere but adding high quality starting pitching helps the bullpen by making a young pitcher that was competing for a spot in the rotation availability to contribute in the bullpen.

 

Edited November 18, 2021 by Dtwncbad

[Dtwncbad]

If the Angels are going to trade for a starter, the guy I want is Alcantara.  He would cost a boatload, but he would be worth it.

[angelsnationtalk]

19 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

If the Angels are going to trade for a starter, the guy I want is Alcantara.  He would cost a boatload, but he would be worth it.

Likely starts with Marsh and Detmers, which I might pull the trigger on. 

[ten ocho recon scout]

55 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

It wasn't ability, it was positioning.  

If I had a dollar for every time I had to tell that to my ex wife.....

[Junkballer]

1 hour ago, Angels 1961 said:

Artie has been burned by long term deals plus he does not go over lux tax limit. They need money to sign Ohtani. Sho sells tickets.

You don't even know what the lux tax is going to be next year.  If they strike a deal with MLBPA that includes the initial lux tax proposal they are over the threshold with no payroll increase from last year.

[Docwaukee]

54 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

Yea for sure.  But in my opinion they are not going to leave a whole lot to chance in the rotation.  They have specifically failed in trying to get lucky in that area and it hasn’t worked.  I fully expect them to sign (or trade for) another pitcher that is viewed as a legit #2 or better.

If there is a money crunch in completing the roster I bet the value play will be on shortstop or in the bullpen.

all this is probably true although they actually had no 'luck' on the pitching side last season and the ham and egg process used resulted in a pitching staff that was actually above the middle of the pack for value whereas their performance wasn't as good as it could have been because of defense.  

And starters are way more expensive than pen guys.  You have a much better chance to do it the other way around from what you're talking about where the pen helps the rotation.  Due to reliever volatility you can grab about 15 guys on the cheap and put them on the shuttle from SLC until you find the right mix.  Scioscia used to do something similar where April would essentially be tryouts for the pen.  Frankly, it's why the angels were slow out of the gate under his watch most of the time.  

But you can get around a less than capable starter by having the right pen help and more importantly, depth for a fraction of the cost.  Last year it took 4 months for some of the young pen depth to develop but it actually worked and our pen was actually pretty good in the second half.  A bunch of those guys are way further up the chart now for 2022.  We just need more of them.  

So personally, I'd rather go that route ie with a solid starter and additional pen depth and save 15$ mil or not have to trade one of our best young players (or two) and use that money on a legit SS.  Especially someone like Taylor who would be a solid SS but then can move to other spots if needed should we get some hasty development from the farm or if someone like Davis or Rengifo work out.  

In this day and age, you can essentially get the equivalent of a decent starter from two pen guys who come from a pool of 5 and costs you about 2.5 mil.  Whereas a starter to occupy those innings costs you 25mil if they're good (and for how long) or at a bare minimum 10mil for a flyer who probably has a 30% chance to stick for the entire season.  

At the end of the day, my biggest concern is that we spend all of the teams resources on pitching and don't complete the rest of the team.  And out MIF depth is crap right now.  Whereas our SP depth is better by comparison.  

[totdprods]

10 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

So personally, I'd rather go that route ie with a solid starter and additional pen depth and save 15$ mil or not have to trade one of our best young players (or two) and use that money on a legit SS.  Especially someone like Taylor who would be a solid SS but then can move to other spots if needed should we get some hasty development from the farm or if someone like Davis or Rengifo work out.  

Taylor really does fit this team so well...

[Dtwncbad]

6 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

all this is probably true although they actually had no 'luck' on the pitching side last season and the ham and egg process used resulted in a pitching staff that was actually above the middle of the pack for value whereas their performance wasn't as good as it could have been because of defense.  

And starters are way more expensive than pen guys.  You have a much better chance to do it the other way around from what you're talking about where the pen helps the rotation.  Due to reliever volatility you can grab about 15 guys on the cheap and put them on the shuttle from SLC until you find the right mix.  Scioscia used to do something similar where April would essentially be tryouts for the pen.  Frankly, it's why the angels were slow out of the gate under his watch most of the time.  

But you can get around a less than capable starter by having the right pen help and more importantly, depth for a fraction of the cost.  Last year it took 4 months for some of the young pen depth to develop but it actually worked and our pen was actually pretty good in the second half.  A bunch of those guys are way further up the chart now for 2022.  We just need more of them.  

So personally, I'd rather go that route ie with a solid starter and additional pen depth and save 15$ mil or not have to trade one of our best young players (or two) and use that money on a legit SS.  Especially someone like Taylor who would be a solid SS but then can move to other spots if needed should we get some hasty development from the farm or if someone like Davis or Rengifo work out.  

In this day and age, you can essentially get the equivalent of a decent starter from two pen guys who come from a pool of 5 and costs you about 2.5 mil.  Whereas a starter to occupy those innings costs you 25mil if they're good (and for how long) or at a bare minimum 10mil for a flyer who probably has a 30% chance to stick for the entire season.  

At the end of the day, my biggest concern is that we spend all of the teams resources on pitching and don't complete the rest of the team.  And out MIF depth is crap right now.  Whereas our SP depth is better by comparison.  

Even if we agree there is a valid strategy in trying to “fix” the rotation with patchwork, my point is I don’t think the Angels have any interest in going that route at this point.

The bottom line is the lack of high quality starters has been THE consensus analysis among media and fans as to why the Angels have sucked for years now.

In my opinion, the team is not going to employ a strategy that risks that specific storyline to continue when they now have the salary space and the prospect capital to address it head on.

[Angels 1961]

1 hour ago, Junkballer said:

You don't even know what the lux tax is going to be next year.  If they strike a deal with MLBPA that includes the initial lux tax proposal they are over the threshold with no payroll increase from last year.

You are right I do not know lux tax will be. I do know Artie does not go over it.

[Stradling]

1 minute ago, Angels 1961 said:

You are right I do not know lux tax will be. I do know Artie does not go over it.

yet he has.

[T.G.]

On 11/16/2021 at 2:26 PM, Dtwncbad said:

I was thinking Stroman seemed to be the best fit after signing Syndergaard.

I was looking at him more closely and, for the first time I noticed.  . . The dude is 5’7”??

Seriously?  That seems like it has to be a mistake.  I mean you don’t even get drafted these days if you are right handed and that short.

[Inside Pitch]

2 hours ago, Make Angels Great Again said:

 

Right, so unless @Jeff Fletcher goes and asks very specific questions about it and gets straight answers I don't know if you're really gonna know what the future holds.

So lamenting about defense issues while pitching help is brought in is...odd to me at least.

Fletcher asking isn't going to change anything.   They made three coaching changes, maybe they alter what they were doing last year.  Dunno.  But ignoring the impact of defense on pitching would be foolhardy and will result in the same old narratives.

[Inside Pitch]

2 hours ago, Revad said:

I’m no expert but agree.  And isn’t pitch location part of what makes positioning work?  It’s supposed to be a team game.

Pitch location is more iffy -- guys can miss a spot and you cant just throw away over and over again for instance...   There was some fixable stuff last year using the metrics available.  But since we don't have the info at hand that they use, it's impossible to cast blame..    It's a frustrating situation that really needs to be improved on.

I have a lot of faith in Tamin and his analytics, so I'm hopeful whatever systems they employ will work.  But last season and the year were both pretty ugly defensively and sadly, often predictable.

[BTH]

1 hour ago, totdprods said:

Taylor really does fit this team so well...

I'm not sure you can name a team that Taylor *doesn't* fit well for. Every team could use him, whether it's at 2B, 3B, SS, LF, CF, or as a super-sub player.

[Hubs]

3 hours ago, Angels 1961 said:

Artie has been burned by long term deals plus he does not go over lux tax limit. They need money to sign Ohtani. Sho sells tickets.

They don't need to sign Ohtani for two more seasons. He can't leave until the 2024 season. The biggest incentive to resign a guy who is as competitive as Ohtani is, is to give him the money he deserves, but also to make the playoffs in 2022 and 2023.

 

[Hubs]

14 hours ago, Angels 1961 said:

cobb and Hill good numbers last year

And they're in their mid 30's and early 40's respectively. Not going there.

 

[Dtwncbad]

1 hour ago, Angels 1961 said:

You are right I do not know lux tax will be. I do know Artie does not go over it.

History says that Moreno’s financial discipline has always been sticking to his own independent budget (not the luxury tax).  He is going to spend what he wants to spend.  And he has said many times he would exceed the luxury tax for the right player.

[Angels 1961]

32 minutes ago, Hubs said:

They don't need to sign Ohtani for two more seasons. He can't leave until the 2024 season. The biggest incentive to resign a guy who is as competitive as Ohtani is, is to give him the money he deserves, but also to make the playoffs in 2022 and 2023.

 

After 23 he would be free agent you would risk losing him. They are saving money for him. Like I've said I do not believe Angels will sign any 4 to 6 year deals this off season. After 21 mill on Syndergaard have like 35 mill left. This again is just my opinion and only time will tell. As of now a 1 year deal on thor is kinda showing Minasian direction. 

[Angels 1961]

34 minutes ago, Hubs said:

And they're in their mid 30's and early 40's respectively. Not going there.

 

Cobb pitched well for halos last year. Short 2 year deal at 10 mill a season

[Stradling]

This has been a slow day. 

[Angels 1961]

7 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

History says that Moreno’s financial discipline has always been sticking to his own independent budget (not the luxury tax).  He is going to spend what he wants to spend.  And he has said many times he would exceed the luxury tax for the right player.

That player is OHTANI

[Dtwncbad]

9 minutes ago, Angels 1961 said:

That player is OHTANI

So then why do you keep getting hung up on the luxury tax and talking about trying to settle for second or third tier players?

The Angels have PLENTY of money to spend on players if Moreno wants to do it.

Will he or won’t he?  The only way to know is to wait and find out.

And people talk about Arte getting “burned” in the past with big deals.  To be clear, the “burn” is just wins and losses.  He is filthy rich and his personal net worth is staggeringly higher today than ever before, so it’s not like these deals have had any meaningful financial impact on him.

I would bet he is more irritated with losing games than spending that money.

So my conclusion is I personally doubt he would shy away from more huge deals if he thought it meant the team would actually win.

But we will see.

Edited November 18, 2021 by Dtwncbad