Official 2021-22 Hot Stove League Thread.

[Blarg]

4 minutes ago, jsnpritchett said:

Seems like every year, folks say this about the Astros and/or the A's, yet year after year, they're better than the Angels.

Every team rises and falls. 8 years ago when the Angels were still competing the Astros were bottom dwellers. The A's fluctuate like the tides and this year they seem on the verge of a roster purge. It lowers the bar considerably so the Angels and event he Mariners have an opportunity to make a move. Texas, they are still going to be looking at the best pick in the draft next year. 

[Blarg]

5 minutes ago, HanfordGuy said:

 

Of that group the only one I really don't know is Pat Roessler. 

[Docwaukee]

18 minutes ago, Blarg said:

Unless the Astros enter the free agent market with a lot of cash they are not going to be dominant next season like they have been the last 4 years. Their starting pitching isn't as strong as it once was and the loss of Correa would impact their defense and offense. This is a list of their outgoing talent if they don't re-sign them.

Zack Greinke

Justin Verlander

Carlos Correa

Yulieski Gurriel Team Option $8 mil

Joe Smith

Martin Maldonado

Yimi Garcia

Kendall Graveman

Drew Butera

they'll pick up Gurriel for sure.   Most of the important parts of their SP will be back and they're young.  And good.  McCullers, Garcia, Valdez and they'll probably move Javier back to being a starter and they didn't have Urquidy for pretty much the whole year and he'll be back as well.   Grienke was a shell of his former self and Verlander didn't even pitch for them so both are easily replaceable.  Their farm is pretty tapped though but the core of their current team is pretty set with Altuve, Bregman, Alvarez and Tucker.  

They'll need to fill some holes in the pen and obviously losing Correa will have a significant impact but they've probably got 50-60 mil to spend.  

If they don't sustain any major injuries they'll be in line for 90+ wins.  Again.  

[Angel Oracle]

1 hour ago, HanfordGuy said:

 

Iglesias checks in at #19.

[Stradling]

 

[Docwaukee]

8 minutes ago, Stradling said:

 

I'd have some interest in him actually.  I think there's a bit to unlock there.  A guy who could be better than he's been.  

[greginpsca]

9 minutes ago, Stradling said:

 

I think the Mariners can add $100 mil in salary this coming season , and their payroll will still be less than the Angels.

[Docwaukee]

2 minutes ago, greginpsca said:

I think the Mariners can add $100 mil in salary this coming season , and their payroll will still be less than the Angels.

pretty much.  they'll likely decline the 20m option for seager and have about $35 mil committed in existing contracts and arb.   I think they're gonna go big this year.  Was really surprised they didn't go after Arenado last year.  

[Docwaukee]

My ideal offseason would be 

Syndergaard on a 1yr deal so he can rebuild his value.  Probably for about 18m
John Gray at 4/70
Taylor at about the same as Gray
Villar at 1/7
Iglesias 3/50
A couple of decently established relievers.  
Manny Pina at backup C.  Maybe Maldonado instead.  

I know that's way too much relative to what I think they'll spend, but a girl can dream.  

[jsnpritchett]

5 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

pretty much.  they'll likely decline the 20m option for seager and have about $35 mil committed in existing contracts and arb.   I think they're gonna go big this year.  Was really surprised they didn't go after Arenado last year.  

Yeah, they've already told Seager they'll decline the option:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/10/mariners-to-decline-club-option-on-kyle-seager.html

[Docwaukee]

and I know I'm clauding the hell out of this but I think ignoring the middle infield for next year would be a huge mistake.  For me, it's as much of a priority as the pen and perhaps even above that second SP.  

[BTH]

10 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

My ideal offseason would be 

Syndergaard on a 1yr deal so he can rebuild his value.  Probably for about 18m
John Gray at 4/70
Taylor at about the same as Gray
Villar at 1/7
Iglesias 3/50
A couple of decently established relievers.  
Manny Pina at backup C.  Maybe Maldonado instead.  

I know that's way too much relative to what I think they'll spend, but a girl can dream.  

Maldonado isn't a free agent.

I like all those players as targets for the Angels, but Arte would really need to open up his wallet (which he should) to get them all.

 

A realistic version may be:

1 of Syndergaard/Gray.

A mid-tier starter.

Villar or a mid-tier reliever

Iglesias

[Hubs]

47 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

My ideal offseason would be 

Syndergaard on a 1yr deal so he can rebuild his value.  Probably for about 18m
John Gray at 4/70 
Taylor at about the same as Gray
Villar at 1/7
Iglesias 3/50
A couple of decently established relievers.  
Manny Pina at backup C.  Maybe Maldonado instead.  

I know that's way too much relative to what I think they'll spend, but a girl can dream.  

This is about what I think they'll spend. I don't like all the names, but this is pretty close to what I'd do.

 

[Hubs]

6 minutes ago, Hubs said:

This is about what I think they'll spend. I don't like all the names, but this is pretty close to what I'd do.

 

If you're signing both Taylor and Villar, for around $24M, I'd just look to get Semien or Story for that and ride with Fletcher and the rest of the club control guys.

I like Gray and Syndergaard but I worry they need to get someone with more reliability. Both of these guys have injury concerns. Again if you're spending $35M on these two, aren't they better off with say Stroman for $27 and Cobb or equivalent for $8.

 

[Inside Pitch]

4 hours ago, Blarg said:

The CBA is probably going to be a clusterfrack. More money grabs for the top tier, a marginal pay increase for the bottom and I doubt anything will change regarding the AAA shuffle where players are really stuck in limbo, unable to secure enough playing time to reach benefits. Overall though, being aa MLB payer is a damn profitable career.

Much better than being a slave in the NFL....

[Inside Pitch]

2 hours ago, Dochalo said:

and I know I'm clauding the hell out of this but I think ignoring the middle infield for next year would be a huge mistake.  For me, it's as much of a priority as the pen and perhaps even above that second SP.  

No, clauding would have meant you littered every thread with a post about Didi Gregorius.

[T.G.]

1 minute ago, Inside Pitch said:

No, clauding would have ment you littered every thread with a post about Didi Gregorius.

BTW... Gary Sanchez is a POS

[Stradling]

Eric Hosmer says hi. 

[ten ocho recon scout]

7 hours ago, Inside Pitch said:

It's not my money or livelihood so, no.  Two weeks from now, I might just be bored.  

I miss the bitching about minor league living conditions.... Those were the days!

Yeah, off season sucks

 

But its usually the best thread bumps at least

[Angelsjunky]

2 hours ago, Blarg said:

Every team rises and falls. 8 years ago when the Angels were still competing the Astros were bottom dwellers. The A's fluctuate like the tides and this year they seem on the verge of a roster purge. It lowers the bar considerably so the Angels and event he Mariners have an opportunity to make a move. Texas, they are still going to be looking at the best pick in the draft next year. 

Yes, every team rises and falls, but some teams are better at minimizing and shortening their falls and optimizing and lengthening their rises.

[Docwaukee]

34 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Yes, every team rises and falls, but some teams are better at minimizing and shortening their falls and optimizing and lengthening their rises.

I was skeptical that the Astros would hold on but that crop of young pitching turned it on big time this year.  Something I was hoping wouldn't happen but it did.  They could be very good for 3+ more years and at least contend for 4-5.  They used their farm in a big way and now that's pretty much all at the major league level (kinda like the halos) but if they have a bad year here and there they'll probably smartly sell off and replenish.   Plus pretty much everyone on their roster is tradeable.  

[stormngt]

8 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

I would also add that unless Arte is willing to spend $60M+, they're probably going to have to go cheap on one or two of the back-end of that list. They can spend $40M (25/15) on the first two, but then have 10-20M to spend on the rest. Unless they make trades, that is probably not enough to get more than just fill-in scrubs. With Thaiss as an option, they can probably go cheap on a back-up catcher ($1-2M). Even then, they will probably still need to make a trade or two.

 

I believe they have plenty of backend starters.  We should go after Cobb and someone on his level or one front end starter.

 

[jsnpritchett]

 

[BTH]

I'd love to see the Angels bring back Calhoun if he ends up signing a 1 year deal for like 2-4 million.

[Docwaukee]

8 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

I would also add that unless Arte is willing to spend $60M+, they're probably going to have to go cheap on one or two of the back-end of that list. They can spend $40M (25/15) on the first two, but then have 10-20M to spend on the rest. Unless they make trades, that is probably not enough to get more than just fill-in scrubs. With Thaiss as an option, they can probably go cheap on a back-up catcher ($1-2M). Even then, they will probably still need to make a trade or two.

 

and that's where they'll fail.  They'll get a couple of good starters and ignore things that are as important if not more so.  Like having a legit backup for a guy that finished 125th out of 132 in value as an everyday player.  Or rolling into the season with your primary SS being a guy who's had -0.9 WAR the last couple years with his only replacement being a minor leaguer who progressed 3 minor league levels this year.  Or ignoring the fact that half of the value of your entire bullpen came from one guy that.  

The only reason this team didn't lose 100 games last year is because of some decent starter depth and a couple young guys that did well out of the pen.  

I literally can repeat myself enough.  They had the worst offense/defense in all of baseball in the second half of last year.  2.5 WAR for half a year.  And Ohtani and Stassi weren't that bad.  You're never going to win when you lose two of your best players but the lack of position player depth is absolutely scary right now.  

who's gonna play 2b if Fletcher does what he did last year?  

who's gonna play SS.  Just in general. 

what if Marsh and Adell struggle? do you put Upton out there and his -0.1 WAR for the last three years?  

what if Rendon has a setback?

what do they do with Walsh and his 48 wRC+ vs. lefties?

Stassi had an 84 wRC+ in the second half last year.  Not that having a light hitting C is that big of a deal but it matters when you have 4+ other positions of uncertainty.  

Don't ignore the lineup.  In any given season, about 1/4th to 1/3rd of a team's at bats will be from guys who aren't your primary starters.   Roster major league players.  Or guys that have the potential to be.  Don't waiver wire the lineup any more than you would your rotation.