Max 3/150?

[angelsnationtalk]

it's clickbait. 

Scherzer's age alone guarantees that he won't get $50M/year. 

That's an Ohtani short-term deal type given his age and value in terms of pitching/hitting..... And even then Ohtani won't get that.  

[BTH]

14 hours ago, angelsnationtalk said:

it's clickbait. 

Scherzer's age alone guarantees that he won't get $50M/year. 

That's an Ohtani short-term deal type given his age and value in terms of pitching/hitting..... And even then Ohtani won't get that.  

If anything, Scherzer's age makes him more likely to get $50M a year because he may opt for a higher AAV and less years.

[m0nkey]

At least they wouldn’t have to worry about how he’ll hold up in October if they never make it to the playoffs 

[Taylor]

14 hours ago, angelsnationtalk said:

it's clickbait. 

Scherzer's age alone guarantees that he won't get $50M/year. 

That's an Ohtani short-term deal type given his age and value in terms of pitching/hitting..... And even then Ohtani won't get that.  

 

12 minutes ago, Trendon said:

If anything, Scherzer's age makes him more likely to get $50M a year because he may opt for a higher AAV and less years.

Two competing opinions. Only one can be right. Stay tuned this winter when we'll find out which is true.

[SlappyUtilityMIF]

On 10/30/2021 at 9:58 AM, Erstad Grit said:

Athletic predicted that number. Who here would advocate that deal?

Personally  I'd prefer two of Gausman/Stroman/Ray instead. 

Add in Thor/Jon Gray and I'm in... 

[Erstad Grit]

9 hours ago, Taylor said:

 

Two competing opinions. Only one can be right. Stay tuned this winter when we'll find out which is true.

Absolutely. Everything is conjecture. I didn't read anyone who thought Cole would get what he did. 

[ten ocho recon scout]

13 hours ago, Erstad Grit said:

Absolutely. Everything is conjecture. I didn't read anyone who thought Cole would get what he did. 

Yeah, was gonna post the same thing the other day when this was posted

Common sense tells us no way scherzer gets 50 at his age. But common sense told us Cole would get 250 or so.

Still hard to believe anyone would give scherzer that much with his age, and comments about dead arm

But if it happened, would anyone honestly be surprised? 

[HanfordGuy]

Max has said that he wants to pitch til age 40 so he’s looking for a three year deal. I could see a team give him 3yrs/$110m. $150m would come from a team not on his want list that wants to blow the competition out of the water but will severely hinder their franchise that final year.

[Mark68]

6 minutes ago, HanfordGuy said:

Max has said that he wants to pitch til age 40 so he’s looking for a three year deal. I could see a team give him 3yrs/$110m. $150m would come from a team not on his want list that wants to blow the competition out of the water but will severely hinder their franchise that final year.

If he'll take 3/$110, I'd kick the tires on that deal.

[Taylor]

25 minutes ago, Mark68 said:

If he'll take 3/$110, I'd kick the tires on that deal.

Would you kick them barefoot or with shoes on?

[Mark68]

1 hour ago, Taylor said:

Would you kick them barefoot or with shoes on?

Left foot, barefoot. 

 

[WicketMaiden]

5 hours ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

 

But if it happened, would anyone honestly be surprised? 

Yes, I would be surprised. Genuinely. The highest AAV's are for Cole and Strasburg at $36m and $35m respectively, Verlander is at $33m, and if punchy Bauer opts out after next season and takes the $15m buy-out he would have an AAV of $42.5 over two years, so $50m is quite a stretch from there.

Bauer's contract gives some indication of the short-term premium a franchise might be willing to pay for an elite arm clutching a shiny new Cy Young award, but as that was set by a Dodgers franchise that plays by totally different spending rules to everyone else then maybe we shouldn't read too much into that. Who else could afford it?

Difficult to argue that Scherzer is palpably better than the guys listed above, and difficult to argue he is worth more than Mr punchy appeared to be worth before the Dodgers signed him last off-season, so $40m looks like his absolute ceiling to me. An eye-watering sum of money to pay for (hopefully) 200 innings.

As much as I would want a guy like Scherzer, he's just too high risk at his age with 2500 innings on his arm (Cole, Strasburg and Bauer all have fewer than 1500; Verlander broke down at 2988) and if the Dodgers haven't already broken him I'm sure the Angels medical team will be happy to oblige, they excel at that.

TLDR: I would, ramble ramble, not worth it, ramble ramble, old and worn-out, ramble, Angels medical team. Pass.

[Angels 1961]

5 hours ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

Yeah, was gonna post the same thing the other day when this was posted

Common sense tells us no way scherzer gets 50 at his age. But common sense told us Cole would get 250 or so.

Still hard to believe anyone would give scherzer that much with his age, and comments about dead arm

But if it happened, would anyone honestly be surprised? 

I would be surprised for him to get 50

[ettin]

On 10/31/2021 at 10:15 AM, Taylor said:

I have diplomatic immunity.

"... It's just been revoked!"

[AngelStew43]

 

[AngelStew43]

It is soooo much better with the clip!

[stormngt]

On 10/30/2021 at 3:37 PM, Angels 1961 said:

NO NO NO, halos have too many needs.Angel fans should not worry about Max. He's not coming to Angels. Whom ever halos go after Stroman or JonGray type they will over pay. I would like them to get some solid relief pitchers. The game now is if starter goes 5 inn managers are happy.

Will Maddon let the starters go 5?

[Redondo]

11 hours ago, stormngt said:

Will Maddon let the starters go 5?

What ever happened to 6, 7, and 8?

I started watching in the late 60's and it's so difficult because the dominate pitchers today are sprinters not long distance

Guys like Ryan, Drysdale, Gibson were powerful pitchers with stamina and an entirely different breed 

They earned huge respect by pushing themselves and the strong resolve it took

[Hubs]

Maddon is the type of guy who would let Scherzer just pitch. I'd think either Scherzer (who pitched 179.33 innings in 30 starts for a 5.96 IP/S, will regularly go 6 or 7. He has had a quick hook, but that I think Is the result of a) depth, b) performance, and most importantly c) Pandemic Shortened 2020, no Minor League season, so he was being easy on guys.

With the Nationals, Scherzer he had 4 starts at 5 innings, and 7 starts at 6 innings, plus 6 where he went 7 or more. One start he came out after one batter with an injury. One start he pitched 3.67 IP and got shelled by the Padres. 

18 starts where he didn't come out hurt he averages 6.15 IP, the injury drops it to 5.84 IP per start.

With the Dodgers, he was pulled slightly less quick on average. In 11 starts with the dodgers, he pitched 68.33 IP for a 6.21 IP per start. He had 3 starts around 5 innings, and one less at 3.33 IP. 2 Starts at 6 IP and 5 at 7 or More.

 

Scherzer isn't the only durable starter averaging more than 6 IP, Robbie Ray also did. And Kevin Gausman and Marcus Stroman also are close to 6 IP.

 

[T.G.]

On 11/2/2021 at 2:43 PM, WicketMaiden said:

Difficult to argue that Scherzer is palpably better than the guys listed above, and difficult to argue he is worth more than Mr punchy appeared to be worth before the Dodgers signed him last off-season, so $40m looks like his absolute ceiling to me. An eye-watering sum of money to pay for (hopefully) 200 innings.

Given that Scherzer's agent is Scott Boras, I find it highly unlikely that he accepts a deal with the AAV is less than what Bauer got.  I think he'll get $50 million per.  Think about it.  I'm guessing Boras wants to be the first to get one of his clients to the $50 million mark.

[Mark68]

Scherzer pitched a total of 196 innings last year, including postseason. In the COVID-shortened 2020 season, he pitched 67 1/3 innings. To me, his "dead arm" is a non-issue. His postseason ERA was still 2.20 despite one bad (actually "meh") appearance. And it shouldn't be surprising that he may not have been as effective as he could have been given that he pitched in 130 more innings than the previous year. 

I also believe it can continue to be a non-issue given a 6-man rotation. I would still love to have a Scherzer/Ohtani 1-2 combo at the top of the rotation, even if they're only starting 1/3 of the games. 

[Blarg]

He is 38, his "dead arm" is possibly a big issue. I'd rather the Angels not find out in April it is. 

[T.G.]

Weighing the risk/reward on this is tough.  The Angels can't afford to miss on this signing (not necessarily Max, but whoever).

[WicketMaiden]

4 hours ago, True Grich said:

Given that Scherzer's agent is Scott Boras, I find it highly unlikely that he accepts a deal with the AAV is less than what Bauer got.  I think he'll get $50 million per.  Think about it.  I'm guessing Boras wants to be the first to get one of his clients to the $50 million mark.

If Scherzer was 5 years younger I would absolutely agree with you, but his age gives the clubs more leverage than they had over Bauer, plus Bauer was a Cy Young holder at the time of his negotiations. I also think the other TOR options this off-season will depress Scherzer's market a little by comparison. This is a much better year to go Ace shopping with more options for teams to pivot to. With all that against him, I can't see the $50m.

You could be right in him beating Bauer's 2 year AAV though (assuming he opts out and takes the buy-out after year two he gets $42m per year- his full contract AAV is $34m), if Scherzer can get something like a 37/37/30 deal with a $15m buy-out of the third year, that would give him $44.5 AAV over two years and $34.67 AAV over the three years. I could see that happening. 

[Stradling]

1 hour ago, Blarg said:

He is 38, his "dead arm" is possibly a big issue. I'd rather the Angels not find out in April it is. 

I wonder if this is something they could find out during a physical?  I really don't know.