Pitching Article from MLBTR

[Hubs]

While pitching is definitely seen as the number one Angels need, some may argue that the offense needs to improve as well. Regardless, here's an article from MLBTR which lists a large number of FA pitchers, not just the top guys.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/10/mlb-free-agent-preview-starting-pitchers.html

They put Scherzer in a class by himself and that's probably true. The other tiers are "Top of the Rotation", Former Cy Young Winners in their mid to late 30's, Mid Rotation Arms in their Prime, Older Vets/Back of the Rotation Options, Rebound Hopefuls/Depth Options, Players with Options.

Which Tiers do you think The Angels will Look at? Which guys in each tier intrigue you?

 

[Hubs]

Obviously I am on the Scherzer train, he's exactly what they need.

In Top of the Rotation, I'd like Ray or Stroman. We've talked about these guys a lot.

In the Former Cy Young Tier, I'd avoid the lot. The only guy that I would consider is Kershaw, but I doubt he'd leave the Dogs. This is the tier they need to avoid.

In Mid Rotation Arms, I'd look at Jon Gray and also Alex Wood.

In Older Vets, I'd look at Cobb and Smyly.

In Rebound Vets, this is where you'll find deals. This is also where the Angels have shopped in recent years. Syndergaard is here, which is a bit of a mischaracterization, as I think he'd be in the mid-rotation arms, just based on his market. Heaney is here, don't think they'll bring him back, but maybe if the price is right. Michael Lorenzen is here and that's an interesting name, as he can work out of the pen and is solid defensively in CF and has a career. With the Angels solid work with Ohtani, this may not be a bad idea. He has hit well only in 2018, but maybe they can strike gold here. 

In the option category, Richards will likely get his declined as will Cueto. Either would be ok, depending on the deal. And if the Reds decline Miley's option, he's a solid choice.

[tdawg87]

Jon Gray would be a solid get if they don't re-sign Cobb.

Put him in a completely different atmosphere (literally) and it could be a steal.

[Blarg]

Syndergaard would be my target. You don't have to teach him how to pitch, he is only 29, he has the highest upside because age regression isn't a factor. That would be my one guy I'd feel safe with a 5 year deal. 

[T.G.]

Eduardo Rodriguez looked impressive last night...

[jsnpritchett]

I think this is the 4th thread in which this link has been included.  Ha ha.

[Junkballer]

I feel strongly that Scherzer is a non-starter for the front office considering his age, price (the article predicts "eclipsing JVs 33m  AAV), budget, other needs and because they may want to resign Iglesias.  He will have competitive offers from more plausible contenders so I'm just moving on from him, not that the Angels won't make the appropriate noise to placate fans that "they tried".

I would like to see Stroman or Gray, with Cobb (under reasonable terms.  While I still think Stroman is still too rich (AAV & term) for the Angels blood, he would give the Angels a legit 1a/1b punch. WIth Stroman or Gray, Cobb is not necessary but it would be fantastic if Sandoval and Suarez were fighting it out for 4/5.  

My guess is that the Angels go with someone who can be had in the 4/75 range and re-sign Cobb.

 

[tdawg87]

51 minutes ago, Blarg said:

Syndergaard...That would be my one guy I'd feel safe with a 5 year deal. 

Is this sarcasm 

[Hubs]

47 minutes ago, jsnpritchett said:

I think this is the 4th thread in which this link has been included.  Ha ha.

Maybe. I didn't see it lol.

 

[Revad]

47 minutes ago, jsnpritchett said:

I think this is the 4th thread in which this link has been included.  Ha ha.

It’s on our minds?  Personally I hope the Angels don’t trade away too much of the farm.  I like a mid rotation guy in his prime and Cobb, plus a catcher and two relievers and a shortstop.  And leave some cash for the trade deadline.  Oh, and extend Ohtani.  And after  that….

[Hubs]

30 minutes ago, Junkballer said:

I feel strongly that Scherzer is a non-starter for the front office considering his age, price (the article predicts "eclipsing JVs 33m  AAV), budget, other needs and because they may want to resign Iglesias.  He will have competitive offers from more plausible contenders so I'm just moving on from him, not that the Angels won't make the appropriate noise to placate fans that "they tried".

I would like to see Stroman or Gray, with Cobb (under reasonable terms.  While I still think Stroman is still too rich (AAV & term) for the Angels blood, he would give the Angels a legit 1a/1b punch. WIth Stroman or Gray, Cobb is not necessary but it would be fantastic if Sandoval and Suarez were fighting it out for 4/5.  

My guess is that the Angels go with someone who can be had in the 4/75 range and re-sign Cobb.

 

4/75 will get you literally no-one in the top three tiers. Maybe Syndergaard or Jon Gray or DeScalifini.

I have no problem fishing in the bottom, and giving Lorenzen, Smyly, and Richards all deals, IF they signed one of the top guys too. Going after the rebound guys or rotation filler has not worked.

In regards to Scherzer, I'd give the presumptive NL Cy Young Winner 3/100 33M per with a 1M signing bonus. I'd give him an option for 2025 too at the same rate. He is the guy that isn't aging, and he's been one of the top pitchers in the league for nearly a decade now. Maybe you structure it with deferrals, he is willing to take them as evidenced by his deferrals with the Nationals. Or you go 20/25/35 with a 5M signing bonus and a 15M buyout or 35M option for year four.

Stroman is gonna get 7 years. Ray is likely to get 6. Gausman likely gets 6.

Gray can be had for a 4 year deal. Cobb on a 2 year deal. And Lorenzen/Richards would be minor league or very small one year contracts.

 

[Junkballer]

37 minutes ago, Hubs said:

4/75 will get you literally no-one in the top three tiers. Maybe Syndergaard or Jon Gray or DeScalifini.

Exactly, that is my prediction, that they get someone in that range AND Cobb.  I don't see them going high AAV or term.  They just drafted/signed 20 pitchers.  With Sandoval/Suarez looking promising, they just want to get over the hump and ride Ohtani and another solid starter until then.

39 minutes ago, Hubs said:

In regards to Scherzer, I'd give the presumptive NL Cy Young Winner 3/100 33M per with a 1M signing bonus. I'd give him an option for 2025 too at the same rate. He is the guy that isn't aging, and he's been one of the top pitchers in the league for nearly a decade now. Maybe you structure it with deferrals, he is willing to take them as evidenced by his deferrals with the Nationals. Or you go 20/25/35 with a 5M signing bonus and a 15M buyout or 35M option for year four.

And you don't think that a more attractive team (to Scherzer) wont beat that?  The Dodgers are just one team of several that will surely top that.

44 minutes ago, Hubs said:

Stroman is gonna get 7 years. Ray is likely to get 6. Gausman likely gets 6.

Gray can be had for a 4 year deal. Cobb on a 2 year deal. And Lorenzen/Richards would be minor league or very small one year contracts.

Between Stroman and Gray, I go Gray and the shorter term but would be happy if they got Stroman.  Who wouldn't?  Pass on Ray & Gausman.

[Hubs]

1 minute ago, Junkballer said:

Exactly, that is my prediction, that they get someone in that range AND Cobb.  I don't see them going high AAV or term.  They just drafted/signed 20 pitchers.  With Sandoval/Suarez looking promising, they just want to get over the hump and ride Ohtani and another solid starter until then.

And you don't think that a more attractive team (to Scherzer) wont beat that?  The Dodgers are just one team of several that will surely top that.

Between Stroman and Gray, I go Gray and the shorter term but would be happy if they got Stroman.  Who wouldn't?  Pass on Ray & Gausman.

I think they go high AAV and low term. If they can get two guys on three year contracts, they do that. It means no major changes for the next three seasons unless they trade guys.

Dodgers had a $260M payroll in 2021. Bauer is gonna have to fight to get paid but he will surely decline the opt out option. They have a lot of high dollar arbitration contracts and free agents.

They're at $139M for 10 guys according to Cots. Scherzer, Pujols, Kershaw, Jansen, Knebel, Seager, and Taylor are free agents. And Jimmy Nelson too. They have these guys eligible for arbitration.

Dodgers (5)

• Trea Turner – $19.8MM
• Scott Alexander – $1.3MM
• Cody Bellinger – $16.1MM
• Julio Urias – $8.8MM
• Caleb Ferguson – $700K

After arbitration, they'd be somewhere around $185.5 Million, and then they have maybe 8-12 club control guys at around $6-7M. So, 192M before they spend a dime. I think they offer Kershaw a qualifying offer, or he's gone. They probably resign Jansen, but maybe let him go too. Seager is gone, but they may bring back Knebel and Taylor.

Even if the tax line is at say $225, which is where I think it will go, They'd probably spend $40 before they look at Scherzer? And paying a lot in tax, as they're way over, plus the repeater is extra. If somehow Bauer's deal gets voided, then they will be heavy after Scherzer, and they do need pitching.

 

 

[BTH]

2 hours ago, True Grich said:

Eduardo Rodriguez looked impressive last night...

He did, but it was a blowout and I kind of get Quintana vibes from him.

Maybe that's an unfair comparison, but he's a lefty who doesn't have a go-to out pitch and relies heavily on his fastballs.

[Docwaukee]

2 hours ago, tdawg87 said:

Jon Gray would be a solid get if they don't re-sign Cobb.

Put him in a completely different atmosphere (literally) and it could be a steal.

this was my first choice.  he had some arm issues at the end of last year and will likely come with a comp pick, but if they think he's healthy I think he's a great choice to get more out of than his previous numbers show.  Problem is, a lot of teams are gonna feel the same so it's not like he'll fly under the radar.  Is 4/60 too low?  

But please make sure he's healthy.  

[totdprods]

22 hours ago, True Grich said:

Eduardo Rodriguez looked impressive last night...

If the Angels feel they need to spread money around, I like the idea of locking in someone like DeSclafani around 3/$30m and Rodriguez around the 4/$64m-5/$85m range.
This gives them some room to re-sign Iglesias, a reliever or two, maybe some solid help at SS by way of Chris Taylor or Jonathan Villar.

I know neither of them have quite the upside and could very well fall into mediocre contract pitching range, but both should be much better than the one-year rebound vet approach often taken. 
Either contract would be affordable enough that there's flexibility to trade them mid-deal (either as sellers or if there's need to clear room for a youngster) and would maintain overall payroll flexibility as we figure out future contracts for Ohtani, Adell, Marsh, Stassi, or other needs as they come up. 

Ray, Rodon, Gausman...all of that feels like Patrick Corbin all over again. Very good pitchers, would be huge adds, but there's not the track record there for me to feel comfortable if they approach the 6/$150m mark. That's a lot of money and a lot of time, especially when in 1-3 years we should see a lot of internal growth starting to cross the rotation threshold between Bush, Bachman, Marceaux, Daniel, Detmers, etc. We are closer than we realize to having the pipeline for young pitching, and blocking it up could be detrimental. In addition, as 2022 plays on, we should still continue to see development across the minors that boosts trade value...Jordyn Adams, Knowles, any of our shortstops, a lot of young arms...it's reasonable to think come deadline 2022, the Angels could offer up a really nice package for someone like a Luis Castillo, German Marquez, Jack Flaherty, or another arm that gives us #1-#2 production like a Ray, Rodon, Gausman, Scherzer, but without the $25m-$35m salary attached, and having that financial flexibility will be huge as Upton drops off next season and we weigh out what to do about Ohtani.

The biggest issue with DeSclafani and Rodriguez is will they receive QOs. It's possible both do, and it's possible both accept, but if not, not sure either are quite worth losing a pick over, then I think someone like Stroman + Cobb becomes the next combo to consider. Should come out to around the same money, neither with a QO.

Edited October 20, 2021 by totdprods

[BTH]

@AngelsLakersFan?

[Junkballer]

40 minutes ago, totdprods said:

If the Angels feel they need to spread money around, I like the idea of locking in someone like DeSclafani around 3/$30m and Rodriguez around the 4/$64m-5/$85m range.
This gives them some room to re-sign Iglesias, a reliever or two, maybe some solid help at SS by way of Chris Taylor or Jonathan Villar.

I know neither of them have quite the upside and could very well fall into mediocre contract pitching range, but both should be much better than the one-year rebound vet approach often taken. 
Either contract would be affordable enough that there's flexibility to trade them mid-deal (either as sellers or if there's need to clear room for a youngster) and would maintain overall payroll flexibility as we figure out future contracts for Ohtani, Adell, Marsh, Stassi, or other needs as they come up. 

Ray, Rodon, Gausman...all of that feels like Patrick Corbin all over again. Very good pitchers, would be huge adds, but there's not the track record there for me to feel comfortable if they approach the 6/$150m mark. That's a lot of money and a lot of time, especially when in 1-3 years we should see a lot of internal growth starting to cross the rotation threshold between Bush, Bachman, Marceaux, Daniel, Detmers, etc. We are closer than we realize to having the pipeline for young pitching, and blocking it up could be detrimental. In addition, as 2022 plays on, we should still continue to see development across the minors that boosts trade value...Jordyn Adams, Knowles, any of our shortstops, a lot of young arms...it's reasonable to think come deadline 2022, the Angels could offer up a really nice package for someone like a Luis Castillo, German Marquez, Jack Flaherty, or another arm that gives us #1-#2 production like a Ray, Rodon, Gausman, Scherzer, but without the $25m-$35m salary attached, and having that financial flexibility will be huge as Upton drops off next season and we weigh out what to do about Ohtani.

The biggest issue with DeSclafani and Rodriguez is will they receive QOs. It's possible both do, and it's possible both accept, but if not, not sure either are quite worth losing a pick over, then I think someone like Stroman + Cobb becomes the next combo to consider. Should come out to around the same money, neither with a QO.

Finally got around to looking up Rodriguez's stats and I did notice that compared to Desclafani, he is younger, had lower FIP/xERA than his ERA would suggest and his BABIP is much higher than career norms which seems to point to being unlucky and the quality of the BSox defense.  Desclafani on the other hand has higher FIP/xERA, and lower BABIP which leads me to believe he is benefiting a lot from being on the Giants not to mention being in the NL.  Of the two it seems that Rodriguez may be a better bet to replicate success migrating to the Angels.

[totdprods]

6 minutes ago, Junkballer said:

Finally got around to looking up Rodriguez's stats and I did notice that compared to Desclafani, he is younger, had lower FIP/xERA than his ERA would suggest and his BABIP is much higher than career norms which seems to point to being unlucky and the quality of the BSox defense.  Desclafani on the other hand has higher FIP/xERA, and lower BABIP which leads me to believe he is benefiting a lot from being on the Giants not to mention being in the NL.  Of the two it seems that Rodriguez may be a better bet to replicate success migrating to the Angels.

I think I read somewhere that DeSclafani was crushed by the Dodgers repeatedly this year, but had something like a 2.20 ERA against every other team. It's hard to say that's just a benefit of being NL West/SF. A factor? Sure, but still very good. He pitched well in Cincy's bandbox for years too, and was a Toronto draftee in the Minasian days. I think he might fly under the radar a bit this winter, and the Lance Lynn/Kyle Gibson 3/$30m deal feels like a good offer for both him and the team.

Rodriguez is sort of like Heaney in that there's always been elements to dream on but nothing all clicking at once. He's still young, left-handed, should do better away from AL East...you're banking on him turning that corner. 

I mostly like that neither should cost a fortune and hopefully won't have a QO. Aiming higher is great, but personally I think I would rather aim higher via trade this deadline or next winter...Upton's contract comes off the books, we'll have a clearer idea of if we need Adell and Marsh, Adams will have another year to turn a corner, we'll have full seasons from the pitching-heavy (pitching = trade currency) recent draft classes, we'll have about legitimate MIF/SS prospects making their marks...acquiring someone like Flaherty, Castillo, Marquez, friggin' Giolito, Fried, or whomever the next ace to hit the trade market is honestly the smartest way to go, because you're still capturing him at a point where he's not making $30m+ annually, and you have a better shot at getting an arm in their prime while healthy as opposed when you want him, as opposed to free agency when they're available because they've hit the end of control.

[Mark68]

On 10/19/2021 at 12:24 PM, tdawg87 said:

Jon Gray would be a solid get if they don't re-sign Cobb.

Put him in a completely different atmosphere (literally) and it could be a steal.

What you mean is--put him in an atmosphere...

[ten ocho recon scout]

On 10/19/2021 at 2:15 PM, Dochalo said:

this was my first choice.  he had some arm issues at the end of last year and will likely come with a comp pick, but if they think he's healthy I think he's a great choice to get more out of than his previous numbers show.  Problem is, a lot of teams are gonna feel the same so it's not like he'll fly under the radar.  Is 4/60 too low?  

But please make sure he's healthy.  

Gray would be a solid pickup. Needing a new pitching coach as we do, I wonder if we might bring back Doug White, or maybe even Bud Black.

Then maybe take a chance on greenke

[totdprods]

16 minutes ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

Gray would be a solid pickup. Needing a new pitching coach as we do, I wonder if we might bring back Doug White, or maybe even Bud Black.

Then maybe take a chance on greenke

Mike Butcher. Maddon brought him to Tampa as his pitching coach in '06. 

Think I saw the org recently hired him back for small role this summer too...

[jsnpritchett]

1 minute ago, totdprods said:

Mike Butcher. Maddon brought him to Tampa as his pitching coach in '06. 

Think I saw the org recently hired him back for small role this summer too...

https://www.linkedin.com/in/mike-butcher-380b7a195/

"Los Angeles Angels MLB Consultant, Baseball Operations"

[AngelsLakersFan]

On 10/20/2021 at 11:26 AM, Trendon said:

@AngelsLakersFan?

You rang?

[Blarg]

On 10/21/2021 at 10:09 AM, ten ocho recon scout said:

Gray would be a solid pickup. Needing a new pitching coach as we do, I wonder if we might bring back Doug White, or maybe even Bud Black.

Then maybe take a chance on greenke

I think you mean Greinke but no, he has fallen off the Jered Weaver cliff where he is trying to sneak 72 mph curveballs over the plate because his fastball doesn't top 88. Let some other team pay for his Adderall.