Will the next several seasons be more challenging than the last few?

[eligrba]

17 hours ago, Torridd said:

Why they ever remade this, I have no idea. It may be the worst remake in history when you talk about the disparity from the original.

The book is so much better.  It was a favorite of mine in the 3rd or 4th grade....can't remember.  It was a long time ago and the four years blend together.

Edited October 16, 2021 by eligrba

[Angel Oracle]

Re-sign Iglesias and Cobb, sign Stroman and a late innings guy, and acquire #2 catcher.

That should amount to around $45 million extra, within the budget.

Let Rengifo, Mayfield, and Brendon Davis battle for the SS spot.

Move CRod back to pen for now, and move Bachman to the pen for now.

Ohtani, Stroman, Sandoval, Cobb, Suarez, and Barria/Detmers/Junk

Iglesias, FA acquisition, CRod, Mayers, Warren, Quijada, and two from Tyler/Marte/Ortega/etc. with Bachman replacing one of those when ready

Finally, have normal team health for a change, instead of having one of the biggest cumulative IL days in MLB year in and year out it seems.

Edited October 16, 2021 by Angel Oracle

[wopphil]

2 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

Re-sign Iglesias and Cobb, sign Stroman and a late innings guy, and acquire #2 catcher.

That should amount to around $45 million extra, within the budget.

Let Rengifo, Mayfield, and Brendon Davis battle for the SS spot.

Finally, have normal team health for a change, instead of having one of the biggest cumulative IL days in MLB year in and year out it seems.

I actually think this is a good and realistic plan. I’d add that they would need to bring in another pen arm as well (Iglesias plus two more). 

[Angel Oracle]

5 minutes ago, wopphil said:

I actually think this is a good and realistic plan. I’d add that they would need to bring in another pen arm as well (Iglesias plus two more). 

Agreed, that’s why I added putting CRod back in the pen to my original post.

[Hubs]

14 hours ago, Dochalo said:

you'd be adding at least 80 if not 90m in payroll.  

Yep. At 110 in contracts plus maybe 15 for all the arbitration and club control guys you have room.

[Hubs]

57 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

Re-sign Iglesias and Cobb, sign Stroman and a late innings guy, and acquire #2 catcher.

That should amount to around $45 million extra, within the budget.

Let Rengifo, Mayfield, and Brendon Davis battle for the SS spot.

Move CRod back to pen for now, and move Bachman to the pen for now.

Ohtani, Stroman, Sandoval, Cobb, Suarez, and Barria/Detmers/Junk

Iglesias, FA acquisition, CRod, Mayers, Warren, Quijada, and two from Tyler/Marte/Ortega/etc. with Bachman replacing one of those when ready

Finally, have normal team health for a change, instead of having one of the biggest cumulative IL days in MLB year in and year out it seems.

I really like this plan except for the SS part. With a low arbitration case count, and very internal few FA of note, they can spend. No idea where someone came up with $50 as the budget. It’s at least 60 to be where they were last year. 

Stassi is gonna cost $3-4 tops. Same with Mayers. Say 7 for the pair. Then you have the club control guys which is at most 10, more likely 8. 

So you’re at 125. 60 puts you slightly ahead of last year. And I think they should spend more.

Doing what AO Suggests I think costs closer to the 55 range. Say 8-10 for Cobb and 12-14 for Iglesias 20-25 for Stroman in year one and 5 for a reliever and backup C would be negligible. So $50. Total expenses would be 175.

Add Trevor Story or Marcus Semien to a high 20’s deal and you’re at 200-205.. You Might exceed the Cap in 2021, but I bet the cap goes up significantly but is a harder cap in the new CBA. 

[Angel Oracle]

If they are indeed able to do my plan plus a FA SS, which of Semien and Story would take a shorter deal (say 3 years), since Paris looms on the farm?

Semien is really solid on the road (near .900 road OPS the past two full seasons).

Story’s road stats aren’t nearly as good.   Part of that could be playing 1/3 of their road games in pitching parks SF, LA, and SD?

Story is likely looking at a longer deal.

Semien has been good in the field and at bat over the past two full seasons, is durable, and even steals some bases.

Just saw that Story grew up in Texas, and thus may wind up in Houston anyway since Correa is likely leaving.   Houston frees up some $50-$60 million from Verlander and Greinke likely leaving.

Semien grew up in CA.

Edited October 16, 2021 by Angel Oracle

[Docwaukee]

2 hours ago, Hubs said:

Yep. At 110 in contracts plus maybe 15 for all the arbitration and club control guys you have room.

room from what.   And it's probably closer to 25 for the arb and controlled guys.  Which puts us at 140m or so already.  Plus 80m even conservatively.  Which is 220m.  Plus you've got to lock up Ohatni on top of that which adds to all those contracts you think they're gonna do that extend through 2024 or 2025 at least.  And by then we'll have more expensive guys in arb and have zero room to improve the team in the future.  No frickin chance.  

[tdawg87]

It's always been $40-50 million in space, unless Arte ups the payroll which we know he won't. 

MLB also wants to lower the threshold to $180 for 2022, which is another issue.

I mean honestly we may not even have a season.

[Angel Oracle]

2 hours ago, tdawg87 said:

It's always been $40-50 million in space, unless Arte ups the payroll which we know he won't. 

MLB also wants to lower the threshold to $180 for 2022, which is another issue.

I mean honestly we may not even have a season.

Screw the owners.

[Angel Oracle]

2 hours ago, Dochalo said:

room from what.   And it's probably closer to 25 for the arb and controlled guys.  Which puts us at 140m or so already.  Plus 80m even conservatively.  Which is 220m.  Plus you've got to lock up Ohatni on top of that which adds to all those contracts you think they're gonna do that extend through 2024 or 2025 at least.  And by then we'll have more expensive guys in arb and have zero room to improve the team in the future.  No frickin chance.  

Agree on no more long contracts the next handful of seasons, aside from Ohtani (assuming 2022 a repeat of 2021 for him).

Time to get out of the out of house long term FA contracts business.   Nothing over 3 years

[Torridd]

9 hours ago, eligrba said:

The book is so much better.  It was a favorite of mine in the 3rd or 4th grade....can't remember.  It was a long time ago and the four years blend together.

Really? I never read it. Actually, I don't think I read any of Dahl's books.

[Torridd]

30 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

Agree on no more long contracts the next handful of seasons, aside from Ohtani (assuming 2022 a repeat of 2021 for him).

Time to get out of the out of house long term FA contracts business.   Nothing over 3 years

I don't believe teams can do that and also stay successful. They would need a surefire minor league system because ultimately you need free agents and if you're going to have free agents many of the best ones will come at a high cost. 

[Torridd]

4 hours ago, Angel Oracle said:

If they are indeed able to do my plan plus a FA SS, which of Semien and Story would take a shorter deal (say 3 years), since Paris looms on the farm?

Semien is really solid on the road (near .900 road OPS the past two full seasons).

Story’s road stats aren’t nearly as good.   Part of that could be playing 1/3 of their road games in pitching parks SF, LA, and SD?

Story is likely looking at a longer deal.

Semien has been good in the field and at bat over the past two full seasons, is durable, and even steals some bases.

Just saw that Story grew up in Texas, and thus may wind up in Houston anyway since Correa is likely leaving.   Houston frees up some $50-$60 million from Verlander and Greinke likely leaving.

Semien grew up in CA.

Look what Correa is doing in the playoffs. Houston would be foolish to let him go unless they have a sure replacement in the minors.

[totdprods]

Texas is nowhere close. Houston will be interesting because their farm and internal development has not been fantastic of late - but also not bad. They don’t spend big, but they spend very smart. Free agency is such a gamble, can they keep making the right shrewd moves to supplement? 

Oakland is gonna year down this winter.

Seattle was lucky, but they still have talent and most worrisome, money. I think they’ll be big movers this winter, but not sure it will work out. I can see them having difficult attracting free agency because of some of the clubhouse tensions they have had with the FO and the culture and being trade pieces. 

[Reveille1984]

SEA had a -50 run differential and 90 wins, which is basically unheard of.  I wouldn't be surprised if they're back under 80 wins next year barring a lot of improvement.

[Reveille1984]

18 hours ago, Torridd said:

I don't believe teams can do that and also stay successful. They would need a surefire minor league system because ultimately you need free agents and if you're going to have free agents many of the best ones will come at a high cost. 

Yeah, the problem is we can't develop talent (pitching especially), and we also don't have much success with FA either.  Then you have teams like the Dodgers who seem to have an endless supply of impact minor leaguers and some of the deepest pockets in baseball.

The only way we're going to get back into contention is to make some smart trades on top of a few smart mid-tier FA signings.  Like AO posted, that will probably end up being a QO/multi-year deal for Iglesias, and a lottery arm one year deal (Cobb).  Maybe we get lucky and grab a guy like Stroman/Scherzer, but honestly those guys are going to be highly sought after and I don't think we pony up for them. 

Our offense is good enough already with a core of Trout/Rendon/Ohtani/Walsh, and then hopefully Marsh and Adell can take a step forward and Stassi can continue to provide some pop from the catching position.

[Inside Pitch]

On 10/15/2021 at 6:14 PM, tdawg87 said:

If the Mariners come anywhere near 90 wins next year I'll punt a baby. They got through this year on luck and BS. 

They will need to spend some cash and add some offense to win 80.

[T.G.]

I heard Alex Anthopoulos interviewed today. He said by the time his time ended in   Toronto he was finally figuring things out and when he went to the Dodgers it was like going to graduate school and a great place to keep learning.

Jim Bowden said it took him about 9-10 years to know what he was doing. Yes, I know he’s an idiot… but… it begs the question - how long is Minasian’s learning curve going to be? Is he capable of taking the Angels to where they need to be?

The Angels/Arte continues to hire first-time GM’s and perhaps that’s not a good thing. 

Stan Karaden was also interviewed and he talked a lot about how everyone from the ownership to the front office to the coaches and players have to be on the same page.  They use as much data as possible to find any possible edge, every game. Sounds obvious, right?

Well, the Angels haven’t had that in some time. 

It makes me wonder if they’ll ever get there?

 

[Docwaukee]

57 minutes ago, True Grich said:

I heard Alex Anthopoulos interviewed today. He said by the time his time ended in   Toronto he was finally figuring things out and when he went to the Dodgers it was like going to graduate school and a great place to keep learning.

Jim Bowden said it took him about 9-10 years to know what he was doing. Yes, I know he’s an idiot… but… it begs the question - how long is Minasian’s learning curve going to be? Is he capable of taking the Angels to where they need to be?

The Angels/Arte continues to hire first-time GM’s and perhaps that’s not a good thing. 

Stan Karaden was also interviewed and he talked a lot about how everyone from the ownership to the front office to the coaches and players have to be on the same page.  They use as much data as possible to find any possible edge, every game. Sounds obvious, right?

Well, the Angels haven’t had that in some time. 

It makes me wonder if they’ll ever get there?

 

sometime you just gotta go with your gut.  

Seriously though, part of that learning curve can happen to some degree in other roles.  They're looking for that rookie who comes up to the bigs and hit the ground running.  But there is always a learning curve.  

I agree that all those things seem rathe obvious yet why doesn't every team dedicate as much time and effort on that?  And not just the halos.  

While mlb is a fairly large industry, in the grand scheme of things, each team really isn't that big.  Maybe 300-400 total employees with 100-300m in revenue.  Probably about 10-20 different departments depending on the org and it seems like the org charts should be pretty flat or at least pretty well defined.   And while there are probably some 'trade secrets', everyone is essentially trying to produce the exact same product.  

To me it seems like the most successful teams focus on trying to control the things they know they have the best shot of controlling.  There's a pretty substantial human element obviously.  Yes there's probably a fair amount of 'well what do you think Jim.  Or Tom.  Or Bob.  Or Sue or whoever'.  But I bet the teams that are most successful don't solely or even primarily base their decision making process on Bob's opinion. 

So at the end of the day it actually shouldn't matter that much if your GM has two, nine or fifty years of experience.   If your processes are in place appropriately and your resources all well allocated and adequate then your GM should be a lot more plug and play than people want to think.  A new GM doesn't mean you have to start over every time.  Look at the history of Stuart Sternberg, Andrew Friedman, Erik Neander, Chaim Bloom, and all the other spores shot out by the Dogs and Rays.  And even the Cards and the Astros.  

I think all of these people would probably tell you that it's not just about one guy but that it takes a village.  I get the sense that sometimes people think Minasian is sitting there doing a lot of what we do like 'rank your top free agent starters' and then hands his list to a guy who tells some other person to get that players agent on the phone.  And sometimes I do actually wonder if owners call their GM and say 'Let's get this guy'.  I think there's a lot more of that in certain orgs than others but I bet the good one have a very particular process for every decision they make and devote a ton of resources to helping them make that decision and then they stick with what that process uncovers.  And that they are constantly analyzing their processes and determining which one they can improve.  

When you are in a position to need one person to make that big of a difference, that means a couple things in my view.  That it's all broken below him, and that it's gonna take a shit ton of time to fix it.  

 

 

[Docwaukee]

1 hour ago, True Grich said:

how long is Minasian’s learning curve going to be? Is he capable of taking the Angels to where they need to be?

and who knows btw.  I guess it depends on how broken the team is.  And second, does he have the autonomy to fix the things he sees as broken.  

[Docwaukee]

and check out where most of the execs have come from among playoff teams.  Matt Arnold, Friedman, Zaidi, Bloom, Click, Friedman, Anthopoulos.  They're all from the same vine.  That's not a coincidence.  

[T.G.]

6 hours ago, Dochalo said:

and check out where most of the execs have come from among playoff teams.  Matt Arnold, Friedman, Zaidi, Bloom, Click, Friedman, Anthopoulos.  They're all from the same vine.  That's not a coincidence.  

This was also talked about in the interviews. 

The sense I got is that it takes a lot of great minds to put the best possible team on the field, but it is key to have that one guy at the top. And that team is trying to find an edge every single day.

I don't know if Minasian is THE guy, and I'm skeptical he can turn things around before Trout is past his best days. I think there is a good possibility the next few years are painful. I hope I'm wrong.

Arte swung and missed on Dipoto and to some degree on Eppler. Maybe Minasian is a genius. Maybe he's the next Andrew Friedman.

I guess we'll find out. 

 

[T.G.]

6 hours ago, Dochalo said:

And second, does he have the autonomy to fix the things he sees as broken.  

That is always the big question.

[T.G.]

At the end of the day, I'm tired of the Angels taking a back seat to the Dodgers.

For a span of years the Angels were more relevant. That seems like a million years ago.

Also - I don't have any confidence in Arte Moreno. It all starts with him.