WAR doesn't like Trout's defense

[Angelsjunky]

Before you get in a tizzy about how baseball is played on the field and not in some basement-dwelling nerd's brain, bare with me. WAR - either the Fangraphs or Baseball Reference version - doesn't like Trout's defense this year. Check it out:

 

Fangraphs: 3.3 overall (7th in the majors), with -1.0 Fielding Runs

 

Baseball Reference: 2.2 overall, -1.1 dWAR

 

BR is particularly negative - -1.1 dWAR reduces his oWAR of 3.2 to 2.1. To put that in context, last year Trout's oWAR was 8.8 and his dWAR was 2.1, with a total of 10.9 (Fangraphs had him at 10.0).

 

So what gives? I've probably watched a half dozen games this year so can't make a clear judgment. Is his defense notably worse? Or is this just a statistical anomaly or even a whole in the use of WAR for defense?

[Adam]

His defense has been meh.

 

Because he is so fat

[Angels Never Die]

WAR, why has thou forsaken Trout?

[jshep]

I don't think he's looked as smooth in the field this year, but I think those numbers are pretty harsh.

[DMVol]

"War:  What is it good for?  Absolutely nothing...say it again..."

Edwin Star 1969

[Lifetime]

He has not been as sharp defensively, so far this season. I don't think small samples of WAR are any more reliable or valuable than other statistical metrics however. 

[Angels]

Sample size?

 

Defensive metrics (like UZR) are very prone to huge swings from year to year, let alone month to month. You usually want to look at 3 full years worth of data (at the very least) to have a clearer picture.

[George17]

There was a good feature written on espn about this the other day

http://t.co/v8IYPAkd6O

[Angelsjunky]

Thanks, Lifetime, for an actual response (although Angels Never Die's was pretty funny). I agree that small samples of WAR, especially for defense, aren't very reliable.

 

Any idea why his defense hasn't been as sharp? Is he actually running slower as some have said? Or maybe its changing from LF to CF and back again? Or just further adjustments for a young player in his second year?

[ettin]

Remember in WAR, the best defense is a good offense.

 

In answer to the question I think he has not been mentally as sharp this season on both sides of the game. He is still young and doesn't always take the best routes to the ball but his speed sometimes makes up for that small error. I really think he is not as mentally focused, period.

 

He may be taking the burden of the teams performance on his shoulders unnecessarily and may be "pressing" as S-C-I-O-S-C-I-A likes to say.

[Angels]

Bourjos currently has a -3.9 UZR (-24.5 UZR/150) from 211 innings of playing defense (25 games played/23 games started). From 2010-2012, he posted a +40.5 UZR (#1 in all of baseball).

 

 

Did Bourjos suddenly forget how to play defense? Did he suddenly become a bad defender?

 

Small samples of UZR data aren't meant to be taken literally.

[Blarg]

Statistical data for defense is far less reliable than offense. Park factors never really take in account how unforgiving Fenway is on visiting players with the monster, the odd jutting wall in right center and of course weather that varies from arctic to sweltering. And that is just one ballpark.

Defensive shift can put players out of alignment for a neutral hit, wind can carry balls or knock them down prematurely. So much there that creates negative stat variances that really are not a part of offense. Defensive stats seem to weigh more to failure than success even though most outfielders play to .980 catch rate and have far fewer miscues than infielders.

[Lifetime]

Thanks, Lifetime, for an actual response (although Angels Never Die's was pretty funny). I agree that small samples of WAR, especially for defense, aren't very reliable.

 

Any idea why his defense hasn't been as sharp? Is he actually running slower as some have said? Or maybe its changing from LF to CF and back again? Or just further adjustments for a young player in his second year?

I don't think speed is an issue. The other things probably all play a part although he moved back and forth last year and there wasn't really any drop off. For whatever reason he doesn't seem to be getting good reads on balls off the bat and has taken a few less than efficient routes to balls. More likely than not, this is mostly a focus issue. Over a large sample however, I think it mostly equals out. Trout has the abilities and he is a smart baseball player. He'll make the adjustments and he will get better and more efficient. Part of the reason his metrics are down this year so far (as the above linked article mentions) is due to fewer spectacular plays made so far. Part of that is fewer opportunities and part of that is due to the above.

[Blarg]

Blanton doesn't allow for many catchable fly balls when they land 8 rows up.

[JB Abell]

Everything that lifetime said. Plus at the beginning of the season he was trying to make a lot of spectacular plays, most of which resulted in an error. He has been playing much better defense lately.

Edit: also, those statistics are more easily skewed by someone like trout because he gets to many more balls then most outfielders will get and so where trout might get docked for missing what would have been a great play, another player won't get docked because he never had a chance to get the ball to begin with

[JB Abell]

Blanton doesn't allow for many catchable fly balls when they land 8 rows up.

Right. And weaver has been out most of the season. He is the fly ball king.

[gotbeer]

Yet another reason why WAR is a flawed stat.  And yet many on this board treat it like the only stat.

[Lifetime]

I wouldn't say it's a flawed stat any more than any metric. They all have their issues. I would agree that is is often misapplied however - like placing small sample comparisons or significance.

[xboom28x]

So now Trout isn't focused?

[Jay]

Has Trout been hanging out with Aybar?  Could be too much tequila.

[WallyWorld]

As others have said, defensive metrics are not the most reliable.

 

To my untrained eyes, he has looked just fine coming in on balls, but for whatever reason has struggled a little when going back on balls near the wall.  I think partly it's the CF/LF switching, and I think in the beginning of the year he may have been trying too hard to duplicate his Camden Yards catch.

[Tyler]

improved corner outfield play. less chances.

[AngelsLakersFan]

Everything that lifetime said. Plus at the beginning of the season he was trying to make a lot of spectacular plays, most of which resulted in an error. He has been playing much better defense lately.

Edit: also, those statistics are more easily skewed by someone like trout because he gets to many more balls then most outfielders will get and so where trout might get docked for missing what would have been a great play that another player won't get docked because he never had a chance to get the ball to begin with

 

This is not really how they work, although it is possible that this creeps into the rWAR version of the stat a bit.

[VariousCrap]

Uh...because WAR sucks.

[HaloFan85]

What hurts his WAR the most is defensive runs saved.  Last year he finished top 3 and this year he's currently bottom 2.

 

The real focus should be on the DRS formula.