Gameday Thread: Angels @ A's 6/14/21: Bundy on the mound

[tdawg87]

Just now, stormngt said:

What's his ERA+ this year?  Baseball reference doesn't list it on year to year basis.

His ERA+ for his career I believe is 97.  Is that a 3?  I was told 100 would be at best a 4.

I like that you're opening up to more stats, but you have to remember they don't all exist in a vacuum. 

I don't know what Heaney is, but I don't think it matters. He's overall a valuable piece worth keeping in the rotation. 3, 4, 5, 9, who cares?

[Stradling]

6 minutes ago, stormngt said:

4.37 ERA is a 3?

Well when you combine it with almost 11 k’s per nine and a FIP of about 3.80, yeah that is about a #3.  He also has kept his team in 7 of 11 games by allowing 3 runs or less. To me that is pretty much a #3.  

[stormngt]

7 minutes ago, Stradling said:

If you want to go back 5 years sure.  But the last four years 2018-2021 he’s at a 101 ERA+.  This year he’s at 104.  It would be like me telling you to stop loving Barria because of something from a few years ago.  

If 104 is pitching like a 3, what was Barria 2018 ERA+ of 123 rank?  Ir last years 130+

[tdawg87]

I'm out. This Barria obsession is weird.

[stormngt]

Just now, Stradling said:

Well when you combine it with almost 11 k’s per nine and a FIP of about 3.80, yeah that is about a #3.  He also has kept his team in 7 of 11 games by allowing 3 runs or less. To me that is pretty much a #3.  

So strikeouts us more important measurement than run prevention?

[Stradling]

Just now, tdawg87 said:

I'm out. This Barria obsession is weird.

If I didn’t know his last name I would assume it was Barria.  

[stormngt]

2 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

I like that you're opening up to more stats, but you have to remember they don't all exist in a vacuum. 

I don't know what Heaney is, but I don't think it matters. He's overall a valuable piece worth keeping in the rotation. 3, 4, 5, 9, who cares?

I won't argue that.  I agree Heaney is worth keeping.  

[ten ocho recon scout]

7 hours ago, Stradling said:

Just a little perspective for everyone doing what we do when we lose a game. 

 

[Stradling]

4 minutes ago, stormngt said:

So strikeouts us more important measurement than run prevention?

No, but it is an indication of how well he pitches.  While you are at it look at the FIP of both Barria and Heaney.  Those are indications of pitcher controlled run prevention.  

[stormngt]

2 hours ago, Stradling said:

No, but it is an indication of how well he pitches.  While you are at it look at the FIP of both Barria and Heaney.  Those are indications of pitcher controlled run prevention.  

I never understood why FIP is important.  Run prevention is the most important element for a pitcher.  I understand ERA+ plus it takes into consideration of ball parks.

FIP if my understanding is correct is supposed to measure what the ERA should be.  I give a shit what it should.  I care what it is.

I understand Heaney has better upside.  However, he under forms based on his talent.  Maybe you guys should look at guys who over performs their talent.

[Stradling]

3 minutes ago, stormngt said:

I never understood why FIP is important.  Run prevention is the most important element for a pitcher.  I understand ERA+ plus it takes into consideration of ball parks.

FIP if my understanding is correct is supposed to measure what the ERA should be.  I give a shit what it should.  I care what it is.

I understand Heaney has better upside.  However, he under forms based on his talent.  Maybe you guys should look at guys who over performs their talent.

And my understanding is FIP is more predictable for future performance than ERA.  

[stormngt]

1 hour ago, Stradling said:

And my understanding is FIP is more predictable for future performance than ERA.  

Future performance can never be predicted.  There are too many variables.   

Look I understand the value of stats.  However there are many times an athlete underperforms.   After 6 six years of Heaney underperforming I think it's time to reject FIP and and go with results as a factor.

As a basketball coach I can tell you how easy to get caught over talent.  I have had athletes who were quick as lightning, jump out of the gym, good handles and a great looking jump shot.  Too often those athletes cant perform in the games.  Meanwhile it's easy to overlook a player who isn't spectacular but consistently gets his job done.  

There comes a time a coach needs to bench the underperformer and go with the  overachiever 

Edited June 16, 2021 by stormngt

[Angels in 2030]

10 minutes ago, stormngt said:

 After 6 six years of Geaney underperforming I think it's time to reject FIP and and go with results as a factor

Geaney is my new favorite LA Angel!

[failos]

2 hours ago, tdawg87 said:

I'm out. This Barria obsession is weird.

Lol I knew right away who the obsessed individual is.

[UndertheHalo]

3 hours ago, stormngt said:

Heany ERA+ is below average.  Not a 3 or 2.  

ERA + is not below average.  104 this year 105 last year.  ERA+ literally measures “average” as 100.  It’s supposed to make identifying this easy. 

[Docwaukee]

48 minutes ago, stormngt said:

Future performance can never be predicted.  There are too many variables.   

Look I understand the value of stats.  However there are many times an athlete underperforms.   After 6 six years of Geaney underperforming I think it's time to reject FIP and and go with results as a factor.

As a basketball coach I can tell you how easy to get caught over talent.  I have had athletes who were quick as lightning, jump out of the gym, good handles and a great looking jump shot.  Too often those athletes cant perform in the games.  Meanwhile it's easy to overlook a player who isn't spectacular but consistently gets his job done.  

There comes a time a coach needs to bench the underperformer and go with the  overachiever 

under or over performing based on expected talent is completely irrelevant as well.  

much of baseball has become about trying to gauge future performance and whether a current level of performance is sustainable.  All of sports has always been that way.  Trying to determine whether what you see as a performance actually helps you win.  Sometime guys are standard deviations away from expected performance and sustain that on either side of that mean expected.  

Part of understanding statistics is also understanding where they break down and why.  So you can reasonably explain why there is a variance and whether that can hold up.  Over the course of his career, Andrew Heaney's era is actually very close to his FIP. 

The introduction of bias and where that occurs is important to understand when using stats and the eye test.  They wrote a book and then made a movie about it.  It's changed the entire game of baseball.  Maybe not for the better from a viewing or enjoyment standpoint for the fans but there is a much better understanding now of what correlates to winning vs. the anecdotal stuff in the past.  

You may not like it, but it's real.  It's not perfect by any means but knowing where it's not perfect is important which leads to more stats and the accumulation of data so it can be more accurate and correlate more closely.  And there will always be things that don't show up on a spread sheet you have to take into account so you can't ignore those things.  But you can't ignore those spreadsheets as well just because you don't understand them.  Find the people that do understand them and let them help you understand.  

[stormngt]

36 minutes ago, UndertheHalo said:

ERA + is not below average.  104 this year 105 last year.  ERA+ literally measures “average” as 100.  It’s supposed to make identifying this easy. 

His career ERA 99.  However fsur enough he was slightly above average three of last four years.